Who are our free agents next year?

[Trace Pyott]

I was thinking of us finally building that monster and I'm pretty satisfied with what Ballard has done so far. I think we are a year away from being stacked if we draft right this year and we don't lose anyone big in free agency. Thats the reason for my question. Who might we lose next season to free agency? I know this is really early to talk about I'm just curious. Off the top of your heads do you guys know of anyone who will be a free agent after this year?

 

 

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[Trace Pyott]

In case I didn't explain my self correctly I'm only talking about our free agents and let's keep it to starters, or guys predicted to start to make it easier.

 

 

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[Superman]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2018/indianapolis-colts/

 

Spotrac is a great resource to see the comprehensive list, but the guys that should be on the radar are Davis, Mewhort and Moncrief. Several of the FAs signed this year did one year deals, so they'll be expiring after this season -- Mingo, Aiken, Schwenke, etc. Butler signed a one year deal; Gore and AV are both expiring also.

 

To me, it's about Mewhort and Moncrief. Young building block players that I want to keep, and if it were up to me, they'd be extended this summer.

 

The Colts are projected to be $50-60m under the cap going into 2018, pending any new signings or extensions for current players.

[dw49]

47 minutes ago, Superman said:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2018/indianapolis-colts/

 

Spotrac is a great resource to see the comprehensive list, but the guys that should be on the radar are Davis, Mewhort and Moncrief. Several of the FAs signed this year did one year deals, so they'll be expiring after this season -- Mingo, Aiken, Schwenke, etc. Butler signed a one year deal; Gore and AV are both expiring also.

 

To me, it's about Mewhort and Moncrief. Young building block players that I want to keep, and if it were up to me, they'd be extended this summer.

 

The Colts are projected to be $50-60m under the cap going into 2018, pending any new signings or extensions for current players.

  

Huge year for V Davis I think. Gore in twilight , I doubt very much he gets over a mill. if he tries to play another year. AV seems to be ageless ? 

[Superman]

33 minutes ago, dw49 said:

  

Huge year for V Davis I think. Gore in twilight , I doubt very much he gets over a mill. if he tries to play another year. AV seems to be ageless ? 

 

I'm okay with moving on from Vontae, unless he's able to stay off the injury report and play to a high level. Even then, only if I like his number. He'll be 30 to start the 2018 season, he's had a number of minor injuries, and he's prone to be inconsistent. I'd move very cautiously with Vontae.

 

Gore can walk. He's had a great career, but it's time, IMO. I think he'll start to be phased out this season.

 

If AV has another ~90% year, I'm fine with re-signing him, assuming he wants to keep playing.

[dw49]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I'm okay with moving on from Vontae, unless he's able to stay off the injury report and play to a high level. Even then, only if I like his number. He'll be 30 to start the 2018 season, he's had a number of minor injuries, and he's prone to be inconsistent. I'd move very cautiously with Vontae.

 

Gore can walk. He's had a great career, but it's time, IMO. I think he'll start to be phased out this season.

 

If AV has another ~90% year, I'm fine with re-signing him, assuming he wants to keep playing.

 

 

I'm feeling pretty much the same about V Davis. He's just been too injury prone. Gore (like you said)  needs to be used in a much more limited role even this year. I wan't even considering him being our featured back next year. 

[Colts1324]

I think Davis would be fine to resign... as a number 2. I'm hopeful we draft a corner that can become our number 1 in 2018 after a year under his belt. Davis is still a good corner when healthy. He just needs to prove he can stay healthy. 

[Bluefire4]

As was said, Davis, Moncrief, and Mewhort are the big 3. None will be extended and this season will go toward whether they are re-signed or not. I'd think Moncrief and Mewhort specifically would want to bet on themselves and not sign for less than they think their worth is.

 

If Mewhort is healthy and productive, he will be a must sign. If Vontae gets back to form I'd re-sign him as well. Moncrief will be interesting. Depending on Dorsett's development and whether Rogers or another receiver takes the next step, even if Moncrief has a good year we may want to let him go and try to pick up a comp. pick if possible.

[Chucklez]

2 hours ago, Bluefire4 said:

As was said, Davis, Moncrief, and Mewhort are the big 3. None will be extended and this season will go toward whether they are re-signed or not. I'd think Moncrief and Mewhort specifically would want to bet on themselves and not sign for less than they think their worth is.

 

If Mewhort is healthy and productive, he will be a must sign. If Vontae gets back to form I'd re-sign him as well. Moncrief will be interesting. Depending on Dorsett's development and whether Rogers or another receiver takes the next step, even if Moncrief has a good year we may want to let him go and try to pick up a comp. pick if possible.

To the bold, i personally think this is madness... But I know for some reason the forum is split over Moncrief.... People forget the dude is still only 23 years old... It's not like he is 27 and about to enter his prime..

[Bluefire4]

4 hours ago, Chucklez said:

To the bold, i personally think this is madness... But I know for some reason the forum is split over Moncrief.... People forget the dude is still only 23 years old... It's not like he is 27 and about to enter his prime..

I have no doubt Moncrief could be a beast and I'm not worried about him. I just don't know if I would want to spend 10+ million on 2 different receivers especially if we have other guys developing.

[Valpo2004]

In terms of just starters as others have said it's Davis, Mewhort, and Moncrief.  

 

Mewhort especially is likely to get paid pretty good.  Conservatively I would say Mewhort is likely to cost us 8M to 10M.  

 

Moncrief will also likely get paid a solid amount.  Right now probably 5 or 6M but if he has a productive year it will be more.  

 

Davis's pay will likely remain the same or decrease.

 

Vinatieri will also be an FA as will Gore.  Both of these guys may be guys to move on from.  

[Colt Overseas]

So looking after resignings and accounting for the draft, were looking at about 20mil to spend on new FAs in 2018. Not that much, probably enough to get one quality starter.

[Valpo2004]

52 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

So looking after resignings and accounting for the draft, were looking at about 20mil to spend on new FAs in 2018. Not that much, probably enough to get one quality starter.

 

You are a little low and extremely conservative with that estimate.  http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/indianapolis-colts

 

Current cap room for 2018 according to overthecap: 76.5M

-10M for Hankins - He hasn't been counted on the table yet.

 

66.5M left

 

- 10M for Mewhort

- 7M for Moncrief

- 9M for Davis

 

40.5M Left

- 7M for 2017 draft picks

- 7M for 2018 draft picks

 

26.5M Left

 

BUT!!!!

 

And that's assuming that we spend that much on Mewhort and Moncrief (I consider those high end numbers) and that Davis is re-signed for 9M which is a big assumption.  (Because of injuries, age and declining play it might make more sense to let Davis walk or at the very least lower his pay.)  If we let Davis walk then the workable cap space goes up by 9M.

 

That's also assuming that we keep all of our 2017 draft picks and we don't cut anyone (Highly unlikely).

 

That also doesn't take into account the cap increasing, nor does it take into account cap-rollover.   Cap rollover could be big.  Right now after they count Hankins against our cap and get the draft picks signed I'm projecting us to still have about 13 M in cap space left.  Figure in 4 M for in season transactions and you are looking at about 9M in cap space that will likely roll over to 2018.  

 

Honestly I think you are looking at about 40 M of workable cap space for new free agents.  Probably the same amount if not more then this year.  Only way it doesn't work out like that is if our prove it guys like Mingo and Aiken all exceed expectations and we bring them back.  

 

Either that or Ballard brings in a higher priced free agent on a multi-year deal between now and then. 

 

 

[Colt Overseas]

31 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

You are a little low and extremely conservative with that estimate.  http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/indianapolis-colts

 

Current cap room for 2018 according to overthecap: 76.5M

-10M for Hankins - He hasn't been counted on the table yet.

 

66.5M left

 

- 10M for Mewhort

- 7M for Moncrief

- 9M for Davis

 

40.5M Left

- 7M for 2017 draft picks

- 7M for 2018 draft picks

 

26.5M Left

 

BUT!!!!

 

And that's assuming that we spend that much on Mewhort and Moncrief (I consider those high end numbers) and that Davis is re-signed for 9M which is a big assumption.  (Because of injuries, age and declining play it might make more sense to let Davis walk or at the very least lower his pay.)  If we let Davis walk then the workable cap space goes up by 9M.

 

That's also assuming that we keep all of our 2017 draft picks and we don't cut anyone (Highly unlikely).

 

That also doesn't take into account the cap increasing, nor does it take into account cap-rollover.   Cap rollover could be big.  Right now after they count Hankins against our cap and get the draft picks signed I'm projecting us to still have about 13 M in cap space left.  Figure in 4 M for in season transactions and you are looking at about 9M in cap space that will likely roll over to 2018.  

 

Honestly I think you are looking at about 40 M of workable cap space for new free agents.  Probably the same amount if not more then this year.  Only way it doesn't work out like that is if our prove it guys like Mingo and Aiken all exceed expectations and we bring them back.  

 

Either that or Ballard brings in a higher priced free agent on a multi-year deal between now and then. 

 

 

 

Thanks for this, Valpo. 

[Colts1324]

2 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

You are a little low and extremely conservative with that estimate.  http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/indianapolis-colts

 

Current cap room for 2018 according to overthecap: 76.5M

-10M for Hankins - He hasn't been counted on the table yet.

 

66.5M left

 

- 10M for Mewhort

- 7M for Moncrief

- 9M for Davis

 

40.5M Left

- 7M for 2017 draft picks

- 7M for 2018 draft picks

 

26.5M Left

 

BUT!!!!

 

And that's assuming that we spend that much on Mewhort and Moncrief (I consider those high end numbers) and that Davis is re-signed for 9M which is a big assumption.  (Because of injuries, age and declining play it might make more sense to let Davis walk or at the very least lower his pay.)  If we let Davis walk then the workable cap space goes up by 9M.

 

That's also assuming that we keep all of our 2017 draft picks and we don't cut anyone (Highly unlikely).

 

That also doesn't take into account the cap increasing, nor does it take into account cap-rollover.   Cap rollover could be big.  Right now after they count Hankins against our cap and get the draft picks signed I'm projecting us to still have about 13 M in cap space left.  Figure in 4 M for in season transactions and you are looking at about 9M in cap space that will likely roll over to 2018.  

 

Honestly I think you are looking at about 40 M of workable cap space for new free agents.  Probably the same amount if not more then this year.  Only way it doesn't work out like that is if our prove it guys like Mingo and Aiken all exceed expectations and we bring them back.  

 

Either that or Ballard brings in a higher priced free agent on a multi-year deal between now and then. 

 

 

I would be VERY surprised if Davis gets the much money as he will be 31 years old during the 2018 season. Thanks for the information! Glad we have a good chunk of change to spend. 

[Trace Pyott]

So if the prove it guys end up playing really really well which we hope they do won't they end up too expensive for us? Wouldn't it have been a better strategy to bet on yourself and your scouting and give them a multi year contract? It's almost like a double edge sword. You have two outcomes and both suck. One they play really good and are too expensive, two they play horrible and we are left with another horrible defense. If they play good or bad your kinda screwed either way and back to where you started

 

 

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[Goatface Killah]

Idk, Vontae has been pretty damn good playing man coverage with no pass rush. The expectations are out of wack.

 

Football is a very tough game and if you think you are just gonna bring someone new in and they are going to magicly become a 16 game starter with consistent top level play, good luck to you. Vontae has played hurt and probably been our best defensive player since he's been here. Not exactly the highest of praise but no other defensive player ranks as highly league wide at his position as Davis.

 

 

You can't build a great defense if you allow your best players to walk and are forced to use your resources to replace them, and likely take a major dip in level of play to boot. That's not really a recipe for success. Davis has already proven it in this system, so why take the chance the next guy might not fit as well and risk getting in that cyle of dumping resources to fix problems you created in the first place.

 

Yeah he's gonna be 31, but he easily has 3-4 good years left, and could always move to safety later in his career (and I think he could be a damn good safety).

 

Now an injury or poor play this year could change that thinking. But I see no reason he shouldn't be priority #1 next off season. Mewhort might change that this year if he can stay healthy and the rumors about his knee are overblown. Davis is a great player and I think the Colts would absolutely regret it, as long as he plays up to his standards this year of course.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Trace Pyott said:

So if the prove it guys end up playing really really well which we hope they do won't they end up too expensive for us? Wouldn't it have been a better strategy to bet on yourself and your scouting and give them a multi year contract? It's almost like a double edge sword. You have two outcomes and both suck. One they play really good and are too expensive, two they play horrible and we are left with another horrible defense. If they play good or bad your kinda screwed either way and back to where you started

 

 

*

 

Nope. 

 

If they play well, then you prioritize and figure out who you want to keep, and how much you're willing to pay them. Just like every team does with their free agents every offseason. The Colts haven't had to do much of this because it's been almost a decade since they had a series of good drafts, back to back. 

 

The one year guys are Butler (who is 31), Aiken, Spence, Mingo, Schwenke and Williams. Projecting reasonably, I don't see any of those guys as being potential cornerstone players, and I don't see them having outstanding seasons that would make the Colts regret not locking them down long term. Some of them might not make the final 53. If one or two of them has a really good year and you want to keep them, that's good news, and the Colts are in fine position to retain whoever they want.

 

Another angle, which I think Ballard had in mind, is that if any of these one year guys do command big contracts next offseason and leave, the Colts will be in position to get some comp picks in the 2019 draft. Looking well down the line, if the goal is to keep your cornerstone players, draft well to find new players, and target specific needs in limited free agency, then the more picks you have, the chance your strategy has to succeed. The key to continued success, especially as you start paying your best players, is to nail the draft. 

[COLTS449]

Knock this draft out of the park and we wont have much to worry about in FA next year. Get a couple big time EDGE rushers, a number 1-2 corner, a stud ILB, and a gem RB in the 4-5 range. then we can just fill out with 102 big name signings next offseason. Let Davis go. Sign one of the best corners available, and whatever else we need. It all comes down to knocking this draft out of the park.

[BlueTruth]

20 hours ago, Trace Pyott said:

So if the prove it guys end up playing really really well which we hope they do won't they end up too expensive for us? Wouldn't it have been a better strategy to bet on yourself and your scouting and give them a multi year contract? It's almost like a double edge sword. You have two outcomes and both suck. One they play really good and are too expensive, two they play horrible and we are left with another horrible defense. If they play good or bad your kinda screwed either way and back to where you started

 

 

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Not exactly either way. Yes, it could suck to have a player prove to be much greater value than their "prove-it" contract is valued at, and then they walk. BUT the cliches are true.

 

"You can never have too many good players" - If we have 1-year players exceed their contractual value, then we probably have a damn good roster & Team that season and that's NEVER a bad thing!

-The AZ Cardinals are notorious for finding players at the Fountain of Youth, i.e. Dwight Freeney.

 

Another example: If you have a "Great" Backup QB, that's a blessing not a burden.

If Luck's backup ends up being a Hall-of-Famer or Pro Bowl player, then I hope We play that guy or trade that guy so We can benefit from this value.

 

"Mo Money, Mo Problems" - If We accrue too many player that exceed their contractual value/ become too expensive to retain then We're DOING IT RIGHT! We'd be signing the right people to make this team better, Build the Monster, and creating a haven for players to seek out in free agency thus making Indianapolis a premium destination. There are such things as a good problem to have; especially when its due to having too many solutions.

 

Lastly, if We do not retain the services of these exceeding talents than We'll acquire compensatory picks! If We're lucky enough to receive 2 3rd round comp picks next year than I'd be thrilled, especially if We package those picks to get one of the premier RBs in next year's Draft.

 

 

 

 

[BlueTruth]

20 hours ago, GoatBeard said:

Idk, Vontae has been pretty damn good playing man coverage with no pass rush. The expectations are out of wack.

 

Football is a very tough game and if you think you are just gonna bring someone new in and they are going to magicly become a 16 game starter with consistent top level play, good luck to you. Vontae has played hurt and probably been our best defensive player since he's been here. Not exactly the highest of praise but no other defensive player ranks as highly league wide at his position as Davis.

 

 

You can't build a great defense if you allow your best players to walk and are forced to use your resources to replace them, and likely take a major dip in level of play to boot. That's not really a recipe for success. Davis has already proven it in this system, so why take the chance the next guy might not fit as well and risk getting in that cyle of dumping resources to fix problems you created in the first place.

 

Yeah he's gonna be 31, but he easily has 3-4 good years left, and could always move to safety later in his career (and I think he could be a damn good safety).

 

Now an injury or poor play this year could change that thinking. But I see no reason he shouldn't be priority #1 next off season. Mewhort might change that this year if he can stay healthy and the rumors about his knee are overblown. Davis is a great player and I think the Colts would absolutely regret it, as long as he plays up to his standards this year of course.

Ya, agreed!

 

I've heard that the BEST free agents to sign are... Your Own.

 

Especially true when they are one of the League's best at their respective position.