Two Weeks Out - Way Too Detailed Colt Mock

[Archer]

Post Combine Mock

 

I think Ballard is likely to trade down with this pick.  Standing at #15, his best choice would be a CB: Lattimore (almost certainly gone), Conley, or Humphrey would all be great values there, and they’re the only three definite Day 1 starters IMHO.  However, with the deep CB class and Ballard’s desire to build through the draft, the trade-down into the mid-20s makes a lot of sense.  The implied job security of a new GM with a re-build in front of him lets him push the 2nd CB position into the 2nd round.  So, PROJECTED TRADE: #15 pick for somewhere around the #25 pick and a late 2nd round pick.

 

1) Tyus Bowser, LB, Houston.  Been a favorite of mine since I noticed his ability in coverage and incredible acceleration around the edge about mid-season.  One scout called him a twitched up toy for a D-coordinator.  Bottom line is that he can cover and rush, has outstanding athleticism and speed, great experience in coverage, great instincts, and can run and tackle.  That guy will be a future mainstay somewhere in the LB corps, and initially will be at ILB.  For a LB corps that needs upgrades and long-term solutions across the board, a player with Bowser’s versatility is just what’s needed.

2) Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado.  I’m not sure who my favorite 2nd round CB is, but Witherspoon is a freakish athlete with great man coverage ability (our specialty).  6’3”, 198 lbs, 4.45 forty, 40.5” vertical, 6.93 three-cone, 4.13 short shuttle.  He’s a sticky cover guy, but he’s a poor tackler and not physical in run support.  In one of the odder criticisms I’ve seen, one scouting report called him a “know-it-all”, which could impugn his coachability.  His athleticism and college tape is going to get him drafted earlier than people think.  There are other CBs well worth this pick who could be there if you don’t like Witherspoon, such as Awuzie, Tankersley, Moreau, Wilson, etc.

2T) Trey Hendrickson, OLB, South Florida.  I’m a big fan of this guy.  He was unblockable at the East West Shrine practices; in fact, he was the game’s defensive MVP.  A great pass rusher who proved to possess excellent physical traits for a 6’4”, 266 lb. player at the Combine: 4.65 forty, 1.59 10-yard split, 7.03 3-cone, 33.5” vertical, and 10’2” broad jump.  His Combine #s are good enough to convince me he has the athletic traits to do everything our Rush OLB does.    

3) Nico Siragusa, OG, Arizona St.  Ballard wants more competition (and presumably more depth) on the line.  Siragusa brings great athleticism for a second day OG known for his run-blocking.  I think his superior athletic figures at the Combine will propel him above some of the other second day OL prospects (much stronger and better jumps than Moton/Dawkins, with similar shuttles/cones).  Hopefully, he could develop into a solid all-round OG very quickly.

4) Brian Allen, DB, Utah.  I’ll admit, I’m actually sold on Shaq Griffin, but I think his physical profile will get him drafted in the late 3rd, even if his tape would not.  Allen has a bit of technique work to do…well, a lot of technique work to do.  However, he is another plus athlete to throw into the CB pool.  At the Combine: 6’3, 215 lbs., 4.48 forty, 15 bench reps, 6.64 3-cone, 4.34 short shuttle, and 34.5” vertical.  That’s top drawer for a middle-round guy.

4T) John Johnson, S, Boston College.  I discounted him after he ran a 4.61 forty at the Combine.  However, upon further review, everything else at his Combine was pretty good, especially his 6.72 three-cone.  Anyway, he is a smart, reliable last line of defense.  Definitely more of a coverage guy than an in-the-box.  That’s what I’m looking for.

4C) Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP.  In a very good RB draft, there were only four guys possibly available to us in this draft that I would want as the present and future feature back: McCaffrey, Mixon, Kamara, and Mack.  The others are all probably future role players.  Having gotten to the 4th round and not gotten one of those, I pushed off the need to the end of the round and picked up the best athlete I could find.  Jones is too slow (4.56) to go earlier, but he’s got a pretty good athletic profile other than that: 37.5” vertical, 6.82 three-cone, 4.20 short shuttle.

5) Samson Ebukam, LB, Eastern Washington.  I tuned into a couple of E. Washington games this year to check out Cooper Kupp, and Ebukam jumped out at me a bit.  Then his Pro Day: 6’2, 240, 4.48 forty, 39.5 vertical, 10-10 Broad Jump, 6.98 3-cone, 4.35 short shuttle.  He was productive enough in college: 71 tackles and 9.5 sacks playing DL (including playoffs).  Like Bowser, his size and athleticism could put him at ILB or OLB.  This will be a true case of having competition sort out the LBs this year after a serious infusion of athleticism.  He should be a special teams demon, and we’ll see what he turns into on D.

 

In all, I would like to get a little more at CB than this in the draft (an instant solid starter like Humphrey would have been nice), but you can’t get everything you want in the draft.  This draft continued what I considered Offseason Priority #1 (revamping the LB corps by adding versatile freak Bowser and heir apparent Rush LB Hendrickson).  It probably left the feature back and top CB role to next year’s draft.  However, the addition of Siragusa to the interior of the OL should continue to add necessary depth. 

 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

Lots of reaches in this mock IMO. I don't think any of your first 3 picks are game changers. I like Awuzie better than Witherspoon. Bowser isn't a first rounder, even in a trade back. Also you're too high on the small school pass rushers. Unless it's a Khalil Mack type of player, those guys never work out. Name a top pass rusher in the league outside of Mack and chances are they went to a top program (Wake, Bennett, Watt, Clowney, Houston, Miller, Bosa,etc...).

[stitches]

Gotta agree with @Defjamz26, feels like you are reaching a lot on multiple ocassions and especially early in the draft.

[tvturner]

Picking Bowser in the 1st would be as bad as the Dorsett pick.

Ahkello is a favorite of mine but not in the 2nd, and while Hendrickson had a fantastic combine, I think he goes R3

 

Should be better RBs available, and not getting a stud CB would hurt us imo

[Shadow_Creek]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

Post Combine Mock

 

I think Ballard is likely to trade down with this pick.  Standing at #15, his best choice would be a CB: Lattimore (almost certainly gone), Conley, or Humphrey would all be great values there, and they’re the only three definite Day 1 starters IMHO.  However, with the deep CB class and Ballard’s desire to build through the draft, the trade-down into the mid-20s makes a lot of sense.  The implied job security of a new GM with a re-build in front of him lets him push the 2nd CB position into the 2nd round.  So, PROJECTED TRADE: #15 pick for somewhere around the #25 pick and a late 2nd round pick.

 

1) Tyus Bowser, LB, Houston.  Been a favorite of mine since I noticed his ability in coverage and incredible acceleration around the edge about mid-season.  One scout called him a twitched up toy for a D-coordinator.  Bottom line is that he can cover and rush, has outstanding athleticism and speed, great experience in coverage, great instincts, and can run and tackle.  That guy will be a future mainstay somewhere in the LB corps, and initially will be at ILB.  For a LB corps that needs upgrades and long-term solutions across the board, a player with Bowser’s versatility is just what’s needed.

2) Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado.  I’m not sure who my favorite 2nd round CB is, but Witherspoon is a freakish athlete with great man coverage ability (our specialty).  6’3”, 198 lbs, 4.45 forty, 40.5” vertical, 6.93 three-cone, 4.13 short shuttle.  He’s a sticky cover guy, but he’s a poor tackler and not physical in run support.  In one of the odder criticisms I’ve seen, one scouting report called him a “know-it-all”, which could impugn his coachability.  His athleticism and college tape is going to get him drafted earlier than people think.  There are other CBs well worth this pick who could be there if you don’t like Witherspoon, such as Awuzie, Tankersley, Moreau, Wilson, etc.

2T) Trey Hendrickson, OLB, South Florida.  I’m a big fan of this guy.  He was unblockable at the East West Shrine practices; in fact, he was the game’s defensive MVP.  A great pass rusher who proved to possess excellent physical traits for a 6’4”, 266 lb. player at the Combine: 4.65 forty, 1.59 10-yard split, 7.03 3-cone, 33.5” vertical, and 10’2” broad jump.  His Combine #s are good enough to convince me he has the athletic traits to do everything our Rush OLB does.    

3) Nico Siragusa, OG, Arizona St.  Ballard wants more competition (and presumably more depth) on the line.  Siragusa brings great athleticism for a second day OG known for his run-blocking.  I think his superior athletic figures at the Combine will propel him above some of the other second day OL prospects (much stronger and better jumps than Moton/Dawkins, with similar shuttles/cones).  Hopefully, he could develop into a solid all-round OG very quickly.

4) Brian Allen, DB, Utah.  I’ll admit, I’m actually sold on Shaq Griffin, but I think his physical profile will get him drafted in the late 3rd, even if his tape would not.  Allen has a bit of technique work to do…well, a lot of technique work to do.  However, he is another plus athlete to throw into the CB pool.  At the Combine: 6’3, 215 lbs., 4.48 forty, 15 bench reps, 6.64 3-cone, 4.34 short shuttle, and 34.5” vertical.  That’s top drawer for a middle-round guy.

4T) John Johnson, S, Boston College.  I discounted him after he ran a 4.61 forty at the Combine.  However, upon further review, everything else at his Combine was pretty good, especially his 6.72 three-cone.  Anyway, he is a smart, reliable last line of defense.  Definitely more of a coverage guy than an in-the-box.  That’s what I’m looking for.

4C) Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP.  In a very good RB draft, there were only four guys possibly available to us in this draft that I would want as the present and future feature back: McCaffrey, Mixon, Kamara, and Mack.  The others are all probably future role players.  Having gotten to the 4th round and not gotten one of those, I pushed off the need to the end of the round and picked up the best athlete I could find.  Jones is too slow (4.56) to go earlier, but he’s got a pretty good athletic profile other than that: 37.5” vertical, 6.82 three-cone, 4.20 short shuttle.

5) Samson Ebukam, LB, Eastern Washington.  I tuned into a couple of E. Washington games this year to check out Cooper Kupp, and Ebukam jumped out at me a bit.  Then his Pro Day: 6’2, 240, 4.48 forty, 39.5 vertical, 10-10 Broad Jump, 6.98 3-cone, 4.35 short shuttle.  He was productive enough in college: 71 tackles and 9.5 sacks playing DL (including playoffs).  Like Bowser, his size and athleticism could put him at ILB or OLB.  This will be a true case of having competition sort out the LBs this year after a serious infusion of athleticism.  He should be a special teams demon, and we’ll see what he turns into on D.

 

In all, I would like to get a little more at CB than this in the draft (an instant solid starter like Humphrey would have been nice), but you can’t get everything you want in the draft.  This draft continued what I considered Offseason Priority #1 (revamping the LB corps by adding versatile freak Bowser and heir apparent Rush LB Hendrickson).  It probably left the feature back and top CB role to next year’s draft.  However, the addition of Siragusa to the interior of the OL should continue to add necessary depth. 

 

 

 

I wonder why everyone keeps thinking CB would want to trade the first pick down. I mean he was trying to trade up with the bengals for a reason. Because he already has a player he wants early in mind. thing is nobody knows what player he wants

[Defjamz26]

10 minutes ago, Shadow_Creek said:

I wonder why everyone keeps thinking CB would want to trade the first pick down. I mean he was trying to trade up with the bengals for a reason. Because he already has a player he wants early in mind. thing is nobody knows what player he wants

Based on the mocks I keep seeing, I'm assuming it's Reuben Foster. Most mocks have him either falling to the Colts or getting taken by the Bengals. I'm surprised he didn't try and offer them Dorsett.

[FalseStart]

Jack Reacher would not even reach this much.  Cheers.  Too Many Blue Chippers in the first and second to draft those 3-4 rounders.

[rock8591]

Man, so many darn reaches in this draft. Every player is likely to be picked TWO rounds later than this projected mock.

 

Tyus Bowser is way overrated, his most number of sacks a year is 8.5. Let that sink in a minute. He'll be another Johnathan Newsome.

[rock8591]

IMO we should explore the possibility of trading #15 to the Saints for 32, 76, 103. That would normally result in -162 point loss, or 15%! In this deep draft, it is worth doing, not to mention the Saints may be very receptive to this deal as well, versus some of the unrealistic trade-backs that I've seen.

 

If we're between a rock and a hard place at 15 (Haason Reddick, Rueben Foster gone) - we may have a player of late 1st round caliber available (Charles Harris) at a position of need versus a BPA like OJ Howard who is 100% not at an immediate position of need...then a tradeback is good.

 

Here's my draft with that deal, with much better value but also being realistic. e.g. no "Tim Williams in round 4" scenarios.

 

32 - Jarrad Davis (ILB)

 

46 - Jordan Willis (OLB)

 

76 - Cordrea Tankersley (CB)

80 - Donta Foreman (RB)

103 - Nasair Jones (DE)

121 - Danny Isidora (G)

137 - Rayshawn Jenkins (S)

144 - JoJo Mathis (OLB)

 

158 - Antony Auclair (TE)

[Archer]

3 hours ago, rock8591 said:

Man, so many darn reaches in this draft. Every player is likely to be picked TWO rounds later than this projected mock.

 

Tyus Bowser is way overrated, his most number of sacks a year is 8.5. Let that sink in a minute. He'll be another Johnathan Newsome.

The dude wasn't rushing the passer that much.  He was is coverage way more often...

[BlueShoe]

@Archer

 

Very creative, and plausible. 

 

Prospect Rankings

 

Mock Draft

 

I think it is very likely Tyus Bowser will come off the board in the first round. 

[Tmoney]

On 4/14/2017 at 6:09 PM, rock8591 said:

IMO we should explore the possibility of trading #15 to the Saints for 32, 76, 103. That would normally result in -162 point loss, or 15%! In this deep draft, it is worth doing, not to mention the Saints may be very receptive to this deal as well, versus some of the unrealistic trade-backs that I've seen.

 

If we're between a rock and a hard place at 15 (Haason Reddick, Rueben Foster gone) - we may have a player of late 1st round caliber available (Charles Harris) at a position of need versus a BPA like OJ Howard who is 100% not at an immediate position of need...then a tradeback is good.

 

Here's my draft with that deal, with much better value but also being realistic. e.g. no "Tim Williams in round 4" scenarios.

 

32 - Jarrad Davis (ILB)

 

46 - Jordan Willis (OLB)

 

76 - Cordrea Tankersley (CB)

80 - Donta Foreman (RB)

103 - Nasair Jones (DE)

121 - Danny Isidora (G)

137 - Rayshawn Jenkins (S)

144 - JoJo Mathis (OLB)

 

158 - Antony Auclair (TE)

Jarrad Davis at 32 isn't realistic at all. Trading back this far would be dumb AF and result in not getting a blue chip player.  

[rock8591]

14 hours ago, Tmoney said:

Jarrad Davis at 32 isn't realistic at all. Trading back this far would be dumb AF and result in not getting a blue chip player.  

 

I'd count Jarrad Davis as 4th best ILB in the draft, after Foster, Reddick, and Cunningham. Anthony Walker at 5. Him at 32 is very realistic, as not every team have the same needs as us and are looking to draft an ILB early on. There are easily 31 more prospects better than him in this draft, if not 50+.

 

Here's another mock with the same trade.

 

32 - Chidobe Awuzie (CB)

 

46 - Derek Rivers (OLB)

 

76 - Tyus Bowser (OLB)

80 - Dorian Johnson (G)

103 - Desmond King (S)

121 - Samaje Perine (RB)

137 - Elijah Lee (ILB)

144 - Chad Wheeler (T)

 

158 - Antony Auclair (TE)

 

[Tmoney]

Jarrads going top 25 he won't make it past Oakland at 24 id bet money. Very telling that you have Cunningham rated higher. 31 better prospects then Jarrad Davis okay now I'm talking to a crack head. I do like your mocks I just can't see Tyus Bowser falling to the 3rd or Samaje to the 4th 

[rock8591]

27 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

Jarrads going top 25 he won't make it past Oakland at 24 id bet money. Very telling that you have Cunningham rated higher. 31 better prospects then Jarrad Davis okay now I'm talking to a crack head. I do like your mocks I just can't see Tyus Bowser falling to the 3rd or Samaje to the 4th 

 

NFL.com has Davis's grade listed as top prospect #35.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade

 

Now obviously, there's plenty of margin of error along with wiggle room...but you have him listed at top 25, they have him listed at around 35. Something's gotta give, 32 isn't really stretching it.

 

Bowser is seriously overrated by this forum. The website lists him at #97 of all prospects or so, which is pretty close to a 3rd rounder, not 2nd. i.e. 32 teams, total of 64 picks in the first 2 rounds, 96 picks after 3 rounds excluding compensatory picks.

 

Then you see some posts saying he may go late 1st to early 2nd round, LOL. Just like they said about Andrew Billings, TJ Clemmings, and Scooby Wright in recent years.

[Tmoney]

41 minutes ago, rock8591 said:

 

NFL.com has Davis's grade listed as top prospect #35.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade

 

Now obviously, there's plenty of margin of error along with wiggle room...but you have him listed at top 25, they have him listed at around 35. Something's gotta give, 32 isn't really stretching it.

 

Bowser is seriously overrated by this forum. The website lists him at #97 of all prospects or so, which is pretty close to a 3rd rounder, not 2nd. i.e. 32 teams, total of 64 picks in the first 2 rounds, 96 picks after 3 rounds excluding compensatory picks.

 

Then you see some posts saying he may go late 1st to early 2nd round, LOL. Just like they said about Andrew Billings, TJ Clemmings, and Scooby Wright in recent years.

I could seriously care less about NFL.coms rankings. Which is totally contradictory because alot of their "experts" and "scouts" have him going top 25. Watch his tape dont just google him. Ridiculous athlete, great instincts, and brings much needed leadership. Cunningham is a project who will struggle with that frail frame and average athleticism.

Again dont just type on your key board, press play and watch Tyus. I can see him having that grade if your wanting to limit his abilities. As a pure edge yea he may go 3rd, as a Will/pass rush specialist I'm convinced he could go round 1, possibly be there at our round 2 spot. His movement in space is so easy and fluid, understands route concepts and drops underneath crossing patterns, and already is accustomed to using his hands to shed blocks on the line now he gets to use more space. 

 

I think the media had a lot to do with all those cases. Mayock fell in love with TJ Clemmings length and senior bowl and all of a sudden he's in every mock round 1. Andrew Billings had the misfortune of being in one of the deepest DT classes I can remember, but again media fell in love with his strength and short burst explosion. Scooby Wright was maybe mocked in the first round before he played his last year, that was all media hype no real credibility

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

On 4/14/2017 at 6:34 PM, Boomstick1 said:

Picking Bowser in the 1st would be as bad as the Dorsett pick.

Ahkello is a favorite of mine but not in the 2nd, and while Hendrickson had a fantastic combine, I think he goes R3

 

Should be better RBs available, and not getting a stud CB would hurt us imo

Picking  bowser in the first round is WROSE than the Dorset pick because at least Dorset was suppose to be a first round pick! Just not the one we needed!

[DaColts85]

On 4/14/2017 at 8:43 PM, rock8591 said:

Man, so many darn reaches in this draft. Every player is likely to be picked TWO rounds later than this projected mock.

 

Tyus Bowser is way overrated, his most number of sacks a year is 8.5. Let that sink in a minute. He'll be another Johnathan Newsome.

I would not worry to much about his number of sacks last since that 8.5 is actually very solid since he also missed 5 games.  Let that sink in a minute.  I am not saying draft this guy round 1 but he is not overrated by any means.  He actually is on par to be a mid to late 2nd round pick.  That seems pretty fair for a guy that has great potential.

[DaColts85]

6 hours ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

Picking  bowser in the first round is WROSE than the Dorset pick because at least Dorset was suppose to be a first round pick! Just not the one we needed!

Bowser in round 1 to me would be a reach yes but in no way is it worse than Dorsett in round 1.  He was a 2nd rounder at best.  Mediocre hands with only three routes he could run.  Plus easy to push off route at the line and you think he was worth the round 1 grade/pick??  Not at all a first rounder but Grigson and that great talent evaluation of his over drafted him.  Bowser has plenty more upside on the defensive side of the ball and you think it would be worse than Dorsett...that's laughable!

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

Bowser in round 1 to me would be a reach yes but in no way is it worse than Dorsett in round 1.  He was a 2nd rounder at best.  Mediocre hands with only three routes he could run.  Plus easy to push off route at the line and you think he was worth the round 1 grade/pick??  Not at all a first rounder but Grigson and that great talent evaluation of his over drafted him.  Bowser has plenty more upside on the defensive side of the ball and you think it would be worse than Dorsett...that's laughable!

Hum I didn't like the pick when it happened based mostly on need and talent available, but  unfortunately you are wrong on Dorset he was considered a mid first  rd to high 2nd pick all day long based on something you can't coach speed!! Would be happy to share the information from the time period to confirm!  Grigson unfortuntly got to cute thinking dorrest speed and Ty's would be and unstoppable combo on paper yes in the field no becuase 1 no line, 2 misuse of Dorset 

[DaColts85]

14 minutes ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

Hum I didn't like the pick when it happened based mostly on need and talent available, but  unfortunately you are wrong on Dorset he was considered a mid first  rd to high 2nd pick all day long based on something you can't coach speed!! Would be happy to share the information from the time period to confirm!  Grigson unfortuntly got to cute thinking dorrest speed and Ty's would be and unstoppable combo on paper yes in the field no becuase 1 no line, 2 misuse of Dorset 

I never saw Dorsett as a first rounder.  He does have speed but he was and still is a one trick pony.  We have misused him I do agree with you there but he has no polish on those routes and that would help him get open.  Running straight down the field every time does not work for me.  I still think Bowser would hold more value but again this is just my opinion.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

4 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

I never saw Dorsett as a first rounder.  He does have speed but he was and still is a one trick pony.  We have misused him I do agree with you there but he has no polish on those routes and that would help him get open.  Running straight down the field every time does not work for me.  I still think Bowser would hold more value but again this is just my opinion.

I did see Dorsett as a first rd pick with his speed, home run potential, & ST skills, just not to the Colts. Interestingly enough I did see before that draft a draft guru type say he thought Dorsett say HE thought Dorsett would be a great pick for the Colts, teaming with TY. I guess Grigson was watching the show LOL!  His route running leaves something to be desired for sure, I thought hes hands were better last year. He does run straight down the field well and would do more of it in bunch sets with other WR and TE's say him, TY, and Doyle, send TY and Dorsett, deep together on different patterns and Doyle some short of shorter pattern. It could give Dorsett a free shoot off the line of scrimmage which he seems to need. You could also mix up the patterns of the 3 as well.   With Moncrief, or Akins, Swoope, on the other side Good luck defensing that if Andrew gets time. IMO thats how I would use him. As for Value you are right Bower would be a better value IMO. A quality need pick close to where he is valued, Dorsett was a luxury pick, of no need, when the Colts with there other needs could not afford that luxury.  To me its one thing to swing and miss on a pick, its another thing to swing and miss on a guy IMO we didn't need. Part of why Grigson isn't here!