Trying to read Ballard....

[NewColtsFan]

 

Well...    our new GM hasn't exactly been shy about advertising that we are open for business when it comes to trading back.       And I'm fine with that.

 

But here is where I differ from the other posters who have been predicting how much we'll get for trading back.

 

I think the NFL trade market is NOT a seller's market this year.     Team are EXTREMELY reluctant to move picks.     Don't take my word for it,  look at the recent deals that have gone down....     Carolina trade a good DE, Kony Ealy to NE,  and all they got for it was a swap of a high 3rd for NE's low 2nd.    A difference of 8 spots.     That's it.      Baltimore trades DL Tim Jernigan to Philly and all they got was a swap of 3rd round picks,  a difference of 25 spots.    But no other additional picks.    

 

So....   I personally believe Chris Ballard would like to trade back a number of times and pick up as many draft picks as he can.  

 

I think he'd like to trade back modestly,  4-8 picks in the 1st round and get a 3rd.      I don't see him trading back far enough to get a 2,  just too far to go and I don't think there will be many teams willing to give up a 2.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 2nd and try to get a 4.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 3rd and try to get a 5.

 

Any other ADDITIONAL draft picks the Colts would get would be gravy.    But I don't think Ballard will not do a deal because he couldn't get full payment.    They key is to get those 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks.    The rest is a bonus.       If he can pull this off,  it would give the Colts 10 picks.     And we've got enough needs to use them either to draft,  or to make additional trades to target a possible move up.

 

I know this view will be unpopular.     I see all sorts of predictions of acquiring 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for moving back in the first.    Hey, if Ballard could pull it off,  I'd be thrilled!     I'd love to be wrong on this.     I just don't see that happening in this case.    I'm guessing like everyone else,  but I think there's some logic to my madness here.

 

The draft is in three weeks!           

 

[crazycolt1]

On the other hand Ballard could be blowing smoke too. We just don't know.

IMO I think it all comes down to who is available, who is on his board and what teams might want to trade.

[WarGhost21]

My advice: don't try to read him. The moment you think you know what's going on up in his head is the moment your goose is well and truly cooked (lol).

[krunk]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well...    our new GM hasn't exactly been shy about advertising that we are open for business when it comes to trading back.       And I'm fine with that.

 

But here is where I differ from the other posters who have been predicting how much we'll get for trading back.

 

I think the NFL trade market is NOT a seller's market this year.     Team are EXTREMELY reluctant to move picks.     Don't take my word for it,  look at the recent deals that have gone down....     Carolina trade a good DE, Kony Ealy to NE,  and all they got for it was a swap of a high 3rd for NE's low 2nd.    A difference of 8 spots.     That's it.      Baltimore trades DL Tim Jernigan to Philly and all they got was a swap of 3rd round picks,  a difference of 25 spots.    But no other additional picks.    

 

So....   I personally believe Chris Ballard would like to trade back a number of times and pick up as many draft picks as he can.  

 

I think he'd like to trade back modestly,  4-8 picks in the 1st round and get a 3rd.      I don't see him trading back far enough to get a 2,  just too far to go and I don't think there will be many teams willing to give up a 2.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 2nd and try to get a 4.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 3rd and try to get a 5.

 

Any other ADDITIONAL draft picks the Colts would get would be gravy.    But I don't think Ballard will not do a deal because he couldn't get full payment.    They key is to get those 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks.    The rest is a bonus.       If he can pull this off,  it would give the Colts 10 picks.     And we've got enough needs to use them either to draft,  or to make additional trades to target a possible move up.

 

I know this view will be unpopular.     I see all sorts of predictions of acquiring 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for moving back in the first.    Hey, if Ballard could pull it off,  I'd be thrilled!     I'd love to be wrong on this.     I just don't see that happening in this case.    I'm guessing like everyone else,  but I think there's some logic to my madness here.

 

The draft is in three weeks!           

 

Can you swap picks in the draft similar to how we did with New England?  Say someone is willing to give up 2 second round picks or maybe a 2nd and a 3rd in exchange for 1 or 2 of our 4th round picks  in order to have the right to move up 8 or so spots to #15.  I'm not sure if this makes sense, and I'm not good at all these trading and swapping deals but I thought I'd run it by you.

[Smonroe]

So far, he did exactly what he said he'd do in free agency.  He, like every other GM in the league, isn't going to tip his hand as far as draft strategy.  And it's no secret that just about every team wants to trade back for more picks.

 

So which teams have their eye on a guy they don't want to miss on, who's that 'trade up' partner?  I agree @NewColtsFan it's going to be tough to do.

 

Is it just me, or is this draft going to be the most exciting, dramatic draft that anyone can remember?

[UKColt13]

Impossible since he's never been a decision maker before. Anything KC has done was not likely down to his final decision or wisdom. Not knocking him at all, just pointing out that this is the first time he'll get to be the loudest voice in the draft room.

 

Up until now its just been the usual, 'we want players that deserve to be here and can help us win'.

[Shive]

One thing I heard from him on the MMQB podcast was that he liked guys that weren't handed everything and had to work hard just to make a team. That makes me think of someone like Reddick (of course I'm probably just fan-boying).

[loudnproudcolt]

I would love to trade back, but only if we can get close to value, not going back 10 spots for only one pick. I would be happy though to trade back, pick up a second or a third, and the 2nd pick acquired be next year. I am sure he is looking at this as more of a 2 yr. plan right now to get a real start on what he wants.

 

Next, I am guessing he has players in the first he knows would really help this team. A player like Foster falls to us, you take him. Too big a value for how big a hole we have there.

 

I also don't think you can underestimate the point of having those 3 4th rounders. We may only have 7 picks, but those 3 in the 4th are going to be very important picks for us, and there should be some really good players, so although we have only 7 picks, I think the fact we have 6 of those picks in the top 143 really puts us in a good position, which means good value and I think trading back means less. Round 6 and 7 picks are nice, but we have so many holes, with our 7 picks we should be able to get several players who can contribute right away, and I think he will be looking for that. Not developmental players, which are more in round 6-7.

[ColtsBlueFL]

The trade back market reminds me of a mass rush of people to sell a stock.  You have to have partners (to trade) or buyers to sell your stock to.  There are a lot more sellers than buyers in the NFL trade market,
IMHO.  So the buyer will get better value than the seller (the team trying to trade down). The 'trade up' teams have many trade down suitors to negotiate with, if your overly priced, then they'll move on to the next team.  There just is no gerat player(s) to propel teams to give up a lot to move up.

[jskinnz]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well...    our new GM hasn't exactly been shy about advertising that we are open for business when it comes to trading back.       And I'm fine with that.

 

But here is where I differ from the other posters who have been predicting how much we'll get for trading back.

 

I think the NFL trade market is NOT a seller's market this year.     Team are EXTREMELY reluctant to move picks.     Don't take my word for it,  look at the recent deals that have gone down....     Carolina trade a good DE, Kony Ealy to NE,  and all they got for it was a swap of a high 3rd for NE's low 2nd.    A difference of 8 spots.     That's it.      Baltimore trades DL Tim Jernigan to Philly and all they got was a swap of 3rd round picks,  a difference of 25 spots.    But no other additional picks.    

 

So....   I personally believe Chris Ballard would like to trade back a number of times and pick up as many draft picks as he can.  

 

I think he'd like to trade back modestly,  4-8 picks in the 1st round and get a 3rd.      I don't see him trading back far enough to get a 2,  just too far to go and I don't think there will be many teams willing to give up a 2.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 2nd and try to get a 4.

 

I think Ballard would like to trade back 4-8 spots in the 3rd and try to get a 5.

 

Any other ADDITIONAL draft picks the Colts would get would be gravy.    But I don't think Ballard will not do a deal because he couldn't get full payment.    They key is to get those 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks.    The rest is a bonus.       If he can pull this off,  it would give the Colts 10 picks.     And we've got enough needs to use them either to draft,  or to make additional trades to target a possible move up.

 

I know this view will be unpopular.     I see all sorts of predictions of acquiring 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for moving back in the first.    Hey, if Ballard could pull it off,  I'd be thrilled!     I'd love to be wrong on this.     I just don't see that happening in this case.    I'm guessing like everyone else,  but I think there's some logic to my madness here.

 

The draft is in three weeks!           

 

 

Spot on.

 

With the new rookie wage scale and cost certainty that comes with it, teams covet draft picks like never before.  Cheap labor for at least 4 years is a big deal to teams so there is absolutely a hesitation about giving up picks.

 

Look at the Jernigan trade - in the thread about him last week there was talk of trading a pick straight up for him.  Well in order for Baltimore to get someone to trade with they had also switch 3rd rounders.  Philly would not do the deal without getting pick # 99 as well.

 

In another thread, there was talk of Denver giving up two 3rds in order to move up 5 spots to take McCaffrey.  That is what is known as a pipe dream.  

 

 

[That Guy]

It all depends on who falls to our pick.  If the right player falls, we'll have no trouble finding a trade partner.  If no-one worth notice falls, you can kiss the dream goodbye.

 

Regarding the recent trades:

The Ealy trade netted the Panthers a fourth rounder in value. 

64 - 270 points

72 - 230 points

remainder is 40 points or pick 132 (fourth rounder after compensatory picks are added in)

 

The Jernigan trade netted the Ravens a third rounder in value.

74 - 220 points

99 - 104 points

remainder is 116 points or pick 96 (third rounder after compensatory picks are added in)

 

A fourth rounder for Ealy and a third rounder for Jernigan doesn't really sound like the terrible deals the "eight picks" and "25 picks" make them out to be.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, That Guy said:

It all depends on who falls to our pick.  If the right player falls, we'll have no trouble finding a trade partner.  If no-one worth notice falls, you can kiss the dream goodbye.

 

Regarding the recent trades:

The Ealy trade netted the Panthers a fourth rounder in value. 

64 - 270 points

72 - 230 points

remainder is 40 points or pick 132 (fourth rounder after compensatory picks are added in)

 

The Jernigan trade netted the Ravens a third rounder in value.

74 - 220 points

99 - 104 points

remainder is 116 points or pick 96 (third rounder after compensatory picks are added in)

 

A fourth rounder for Ealy and a third rounder for Jernigan doesn't really sound like the terrible deals the "eight picks" and "25 picks" make them out to be.

 

Great post!     And thanks for doing that.

 

The point, if I did a poor job of making it,  is that teams will give up a pick,  as long as they're getting a lesser pick back.       So, if they had 7 total picks to begin with,   they STILL have 7 total picks.      Trading a pick without getting one back is going to be very hard in this year's draft climate.       That's why I think the chances of trading one pick,  and hoping t get back 3 picks are very, very low.      

 

That's why I think Ballard will do a 1 for a 1 & 3.     A 2 for a 2 & 4.     And a 3,  for a 3 and 5.     

 

I don't think this will be unique to the Colts,  I think that's what all teams will face during the draft.

 

Thanks again for your post....    it really took my post and expanded on it really well!      

[NewColtsFan]

6 hours ago, krunk said:

Can you swap picks in the draft similar to how we did with New England?  Say someone is willing to give up 2 second round picks or maybe a 2nd and a 3rd in exchange for 1 or 2 of our 4th round picks  in order to have the right to move up 8 or so spots to #15.  I'm not sure if this makes sense, and I'm not good at all these trading and swapping deals but I thought I'd run it by you.

 

Yes.....      if I understand what you're asking,  then the answer is yes....

 

When it comes to picks like this,  any team can do anything it wants.     Now the question becomes,  will it want to this year.   

 

I think this year's draft is turning into one of those "exception to the rule" type drafts.    Where the normal rules of doing business might not apply.....

 

 

[jet1968]

In 20 days we will know more about what Ballard's preferences are. I'm going with cornerback as my guess

[krunk]

26 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Yes.....      if I understand what you're asking,  then the answer is yes....

 

When it comes to picks like this,  any team can do anything it wants.     Now the question becomes,  will it want to this year.   

 

I think this year's draft is turning into one of those "exception to the rule" type drafts.    Where the normal rules of doing business might not apply.....

 

 

I thought it up because to me it would help a team minimize loss if they did a swap as opposed to just moving up and totally losing the picks.

[Shive]

23 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

In 20 days we will know more about what Ballard's preferences are. I'm going with cornerback as my guess

On the MMQB podcast, he mentioned BPA again, but said there's always certain positions you always look for like pass rushers, tackles, and CB's although they typically go fast. Definitely a possibility. 

[Smonroe]

I was thinking that we should give props to Grigson for the 16 draft.  I believe everyone except Bates made the team, almost all started at least one game, and all played.  That's a successful draft.

 

Then I realized that if he hadn't decimated the team to that point, probably only one of them would have played last year. 

 

So - No Props for You!

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

I was thinking that we should give props to Grigson for the 16 draft.  I believe everyone except Bates made the team, almost all started at least one game, and all played.  That's a successful draft.

 

Then I realized that if he hadn't decimated the team to that point, probably only one of them would have played last year. 

 

So - No Props for You!

 

Yup.....   Grigson deserves some credit for the 16 draft.     He may have just finally gotten the O-line right just as he ran out of time to see the results on the field.       Tough break for him.     Life in the NFL.

 

 

[Defjamz26]

I think Ballard wants more mid round picks. If Grigson's sweat spot was the 3rd round (Hilton, Moncrief, Anderson), then Ballard's will probably be the 4th. The most he'll trade back is 5-6 spots for a third but that's in the first round. But I think he probably isn't wowed with anyone who might be available at #15 and that's why he's saying it's for sale.

[NewColtsFan]

 

Just for amusement and for discussion's sake....    let's see what the Colts can do if we make 3 trades and pick up a 3 and a 4 and a 5.       Look what happens if the Colts have 10 picks instead of 7.

 

 

1.    OLB or CB

 

2.     CB or OLB    (Whatever we don't get in the 1st,  we take here)

 

3.     ILB

 

3a.    CB       (2nd cornerback of this class)

 

4       RB       (Time to take a RB)

 

4a     S         (This is also a good class of safety's)

 

4b     DL       (How about someone on the nose...)

 

4c     OL      (The next project for Philbin)

 

5.      TE      (A good class of TE's)

 

5a     OLB   (A 2nd OLB to develop for the future)

 

Addresses all our needs,  and all our extra needs,   and we don't have to reach anywhere.     There should be quality draftable players that we went in every round.

 

I hope Ballard can make this happen....    this is my wish list.