Colts War Room Draft Strategy - Don't Have Your Heart Set On #15

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

They were doing far more than anyone here is doing.  Certainly far more than pay to play draft mock sites

What could they be doing that we weren't at that time? They didn't have access to the information they currently have until they applied to be scouts, which took a long time to work their way up. Everyone starts somewhere, including even the best scouts and GM's. Everyone is an armchair GM until they take the next step to become a scout, and eventually try and become a GM. Yes, they know more than us now, but they were one of us at one point, which is why anyone can do this if they put in the time and effort.

[Gigc]

this is a terrific post! thanks for dong all that work. It will be REALLY interesting to see what happens.

[dgambill]

37 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

They were doing far more than anyone here is doing.  Certainly far more than pay to play draft mock sites

JVAN...I'd save your breath. The precious snowflakes might have a melt down if you tell them how the real world works....and how much hard work you have to do....hours and hours of crap work to get to the level these GMs are at....or yes a few get there off their name. Oh...and don't let them know there isn't an Easter Bunny either....its a secret...mommy and daddy haven't got the nerve to ruin their little fantasies. They play Madden on GM mode and suddenly everyone's an expert. They think because they wanted one guy in one draft 3 years ago that was better than the guy we got they can do the job. I'm all for fun but that is why all the draft mock simulator draft posts were suppose to stay in one thread....the stuff is fantasy league...and has no place in a serious discussion thread.

[NewColtsFan]

On 3/30/2017 at 10:28 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

Just remember this, all real GMs are former armchair GMs, and a handful still draft like Armchair GMs. Everyone in the beginning is a fan. They have no special powers, they are not superheroes, they got there by putting in hard work and effort, sort of like what some people do on here. A lot of the time, the GMs are wrong and normal fans are right, and that's why there is so much GM turnover and why the same teams remain bad for so long. In the future, people like you and I will be GMs, just normal fans.

 

I've been away for a week...     I was able to read,  but couldn't post.    I'm sorry to be joining this thread so late,  but wanted to see if I could turn a hose onto this fire and put out the flames.      As much as I enjoy reading Jared's posts,   there are a series of posts here that basically say,   someday people like you and me will be able to be real NFL GM's.  

 

I'm sorry,  but in these multiple posts,  I can't disagree strongly enough.     There isn't a paragraph or a sentence or even a word to agree with.      These posts show a profound lack of understanding what a GM does.     I could literally write the longest post in the history of this website detailing all the ways this viewpoint is spectacularly wrong.       But no one wants to read all that,  and I certainly don't want to write all that.

 

So, allow me to see if I can't snuff this idea out pretty quickly.....

 

#1  What owner is going to hire some 35 year old kid,  stand before the national and local media and announce his new GM by saying....     "Bob has been winning National on-line Madden Video game contests for a number of years.     He's also been making numerous mock drafts over the years and has displayed an uncanny ability to draft well in mock after mock."        What owner is going to do that?     They'd be laughed off the planet!     Seriously?     Owners are typically 50-75 year old men.     They don't have a high tolerance for being thought of as a buffoon.

 

Next....

 

#2  What head coach are you going to be able to hire?      What reputable HC candidate wants to be hired by a 35 year old video game/mock draft expert and put his career opportunity in that kids hands?      No one worth hiring.

 

Next....

 

#3  What scouting department is going to put up with this?    They've spent their adult lives trying to find talent across the country and suddenly some kid comes in who has access to on-line video's and is named GM?

The scouting staff would likely resign the next day.

 

Next.....

 

#4  What player agent is going to send his best talent to your franchise?     He might send his least talented clients to you because they need a job.     But the best talent?     They're going elsewhere until you show you know what you're doing.  

 

Next.....

 

#5    What head of Marketing is going to stay with this franchise.    Say goodbye to your fan base and season ticket holders.     Say goodbye to your corporate sponsors,  they'd all dry up in a matter of days.    By the way, Marketing people typically work on a commission basis and you've just killed their income.

 

The team is a ship and the ship is sinking like the Titanic,  only faster!

 

A few weeks back in another thread,  I noted the top job of any GM is finding talent.   In fact I wrote that it's job 1 thru 10.      But there are a million and one other very important jobs to do that are all vital to the success of a franchise that just being a video game/mock draft guru doesn't begin to address. 

 

The poster may have had good intentions,  and if he still wants to believe it,  go right ahead.    I don't like being the guy to say "I'm sorry,  but there is no Santa Claus"   but in this particular case,   dreaming for this to happen is only that.      A pipe dream.

 

I'm sorry Jared,  I like you,  but Holy Cow and WOW,   this was a whopper!!

 

 

[BlueShoe]

Bashing on someone for doing mock drafts is ridiculous. 

 

To some people, the draft season is a very exciting time. Unless the Colts are in the Super Bowl, then I would rather watch the draft. 

 

We all have our different likes and dislikes. No need to insult anyone just because you disagree with their likes. 

 

If anyone does not want to participate in the NFL draft process then I don't see any arms being pulled. 

 

Learning to ignore threads that you're not interested in is a great skill to have.  

[BProland85]

I hope Ballard is able to trade back and pick up an extra 2nd with the Giants for example. Ballard could still get an impact pass rusher like Charles Harris at 23, and then get help at CB and either RB or ILB round 2.

 

I believe Ballard will be able to find quality players in rounds 2-4 so having a few extra's would certainly help with all the needs the Colts have.

[Yoshinator]

14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I've been away for a week...     I was able to read,  but couldn't post.    I'm sorry to be joining this thread so late,  but wanted to see if I could turn a hose onto this fire and put out the flames.      As much as I enjoy reading Jared's posts,   there are a series of posts here that basically say,   someday people like you and me will be able to be real NFL GM's.  

 

I'm sorry,  but in these multiple posts,  I can't disagree strongly enough.     There isn't a paragraph or a sentence or even a word to agree with.      These posts show a profound lack of understanding what a GM does.     I could literally write the longest post in the history of this website detailing all the ways this viewpoint is spectacularly wrong.       But no one wants to read all that,  and I certainly don't want to write all that.

 

So, allow me to see if I can't snuff this idea out pretty quickly.....

 

#1  What owner is going to hire some 35 year old kid,  stand before the national and local media and announce his new GM by saying....     "Bob has been winning National on-line Madden Video game contests for a number of years.     He's also been making numerous mock drafts over the years and has displayed an uncanny ability to draft well in mock after mock."        What owner is going to do that?     They'd be laughed off the planet!     Seriously?     Owners are typically 50-75 year old men.     They don't have a high tolerance for being thought of as a buffoon.

 

Next....

 

#2  What head coach are you going to be able to hire?      What reputable HC candidate wants to be hired by a 35 year old video game/mock draft expert and put his career opportunity in that kids hands?      No one worth hiring.

 

Next....

 

#3  What scouting department is going to put up with this?    They've spent their adult lives trying to find talent across the country and suddenly some kid comes in who has access to on-line video's and is named GM?

The scouting staff would likely resign the next day.

 

Next.....

 

#4  What player agent is going to send his best talent to your franchise?     He might send his least talented clients to you because they need a job.     But the best talent?     They're going elsewhere until you show you know what you're doing.  

 

Next.....

 

#5    What head of Marketing is going to stay with this franchise.    Say goodbye to your fan base and season ticket holders.     Say goodbye to your corporate sponsors,  they'd all dry up in a matter of days.    By the way, Marketing people typically work on a commission basis and you've just killed their income.

 

The team is a ship and the ship is sinking like the Titanic,  only faster!

 

A few weeks back in another thread,  I noted the top job of any GM is finding talent.   In fact I wrote that it's job 1 thru 10.      But there are a million and one other very important jobs to do that are all vital to the success of a franchise that just being a video game/mock draft guru doesn't begin to address. 

 

The poster may have had good intentions,  and if he still wants to believe it,  go right ahead.    I don't like being the guy to say "I'm sorry,  but there is no Santa Claus"   but in this particular case,   dreaming for this to happen is only that.      A pipe dream.

 

I'm sorry Jared,  I like you,  but Holy Cow and WOW,   this was a whopper!!

 

 

Welcome back NCF! What I meant was that everyone starts at the bottom, just like we would. I'm 29, but if I got a degree in sports management, applied for a job as a scout, honed my craft, and worked my way up to GM, even someone like me could be a GM eventually. I never mentioned video games, that was you. In fact, madden really doesn't have many features that genuinely help draft players, and it's not very realistic, so that excuse doesn't hold water. If I work as a scout for 5-10 years and impress upper management or certain owners, I could be a GM around the same age or a bit younger than Chris Ballard. Most of the people are older that are GMs, but that doesn't mean they weren't like the people on this forum at one time, and it's a very shortsided view to think otherwise.

 

Also, Santa Claus was real. His full name was Saint Nicholas of Myra, a 4th century Greek Bishop.

[NewColtsFan]

15 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Welcome back NCF! What I meant was that everyone starts at the bottom, just like we would. I'm 29, but if I got a degree in sports management, applied for a job as a scout, honed my craft, and worked my way up to GM, even someone like me could be a GM eventually. I never mentioned video games, that was you. In fact, madden really doesn't have many features that genuinely help draft players, and it's not very realistic, so that excuse doesn't hold water. If I work as a scout for 5-10 years and impress upper management or certain owners, I could be a GM around the same age or a bit younger than Chris Ballard. Most of the people are older that are GMs, but that doesn't mean they weren't like the people on this forum at one time, and it's a very shortsided view to think otherwise.

 

Also, Santa Claus was real. His full name was Saint Nicholas of Myra, a 4th century Greek Bishop.

 

First,  thanks for the kind response....    very classy of you, and it's much appreciated.     Sorry for the misunderstanding.

 

As to being a GM....    I'd say at 29 you're coming to it way too late in life.

 

They key is getting in when you're young and committing to it full time as a way of life.    Low paying jobs where the reward is the knowledge you're gaining.     Hopefully you played HS football.     If not,  hook on with a low level college program starting as an unpaid assistant and work your way up....   GM isn't a job you earn in 5-10 years.      GM is the job you earn after 20-30 years.    As a player,  a coach,  a scout,  a director of player personnel....    on and on....    you can't learn enough in just 5-10 years.    And all that time you're living your life...    hopefully you've married an understanding wife,  because you're not going to see her as often as you'd like,  you'll be working.      Same with the kids,  because they'll quickly figure out that Dad has about 100-150 other kids with the football team he runs.      That's the nature of the beast.

 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from following their dream.    Only trying to paint a clear picture of some of what goes on to working your way up to being a GM.     It's a lifetime commitment.

 

Here's Ballard's Bio:      23 years starting AFTER he played 4 years of college football.

 

http://www.colts.com/team/staff/Chris-Ballard/bd18fac8-4166-4a0e-9411-da2326cbb2b9

[Yoshinator]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

First,  thanks for the kind response....    very classy of you, and it's much appreciated.     Sorry for the misunderstanding.

 

As to being a GM....    I'd say at 29 you're coming to it way too late in life.

 

They key is getting in when you're young and committing to it full time as a way of life.    Low paying jobs where the reward is the knowledge you're gaining.     Hopefully you played HS football.     If not,  hook on with a low level college program starting as an unpaid assistant and work your way up....   GM isn't a job you earn in 5-10 years.      GM is the job you earn after 20-30 years.    As a player,  a coach,  a scout,  a director of player personnel....    on and on....    you can't learn enough in just 5-10 years.    And all that time you're living your life...    hopefully you've married an understanding wife,  because you're not going to see her as often as you'd like,  you'll be working.      Same with the kids,  because they'll quickly figure out that Dad has about 100-150 other kids with the football team he runs.      That's the nature of the beast.

 

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from following their dream.    Only trying to paint a clear picture of some of what goes on to working your way up to being a GM.     It's a lifetime commitment.

 

Here's Ballard's Bio:      23 years starting AFTER he played 4 years of college football.

 

http://www.colts.com/team/staff/Chris-Ballard/bd18fac8-4166-4a0e-9411-da2326cbb2b9

All right, this is fair enough. I definitely thought he was younger. That is correct then that 5-10 years isn't enough. I guess I was misinformed on Ballard and Grigson's age and was thinking the GM age would be earlier than it really was. Harder than I thought. I'll end it here. Thanks for discouraging me from following my dream.  lol. Nah, I'm kidding.

[GoColts8818]

Every year GMs say they are willing to trade back.  ALL teams are because it means you get more picks to fill needs so unless a team is in love with a guy they are always open to moving back.  It sounds like there are going to be a lot of players on the board at 15 that the Colts could use so I am sure if Ballard can move back and still get one of those guys he will do it in a heart beat. 

 

The trick is getting a team that wants to move up.  They have to fall in love with a guy to want to do that.  So I don't think the issue is going to be the Colts being willing to move back as much as it's going to be a team wanting to come up.

[dw49]

On 3/29/2017 at 9:44 PM, rockywoj said:

I think it absolutely was his downfall.   He waited 3 years too long to try and rebuild the OL and he also failed to upgrade the LBs and DBs.

 

Of course, the crazy timing of Manning missing the year, resulting in having the pick to get Luck, also factored in.

 

The strange thing is, and nobody seems to ever mention this, back in, I believe it was, the early summer of 2010, Irsay put out a cryptic tweet about HUGE changes coming in the next 18 months.  I remember thinking, what the heck does THAT mean!?  Then, as fate would have it, Manning missed the entire 2011 season and Polian and Caldwell were fired!  Like what the heck gives with that Irsay tweet that seems to have foretold the drastic changes we witnessed?

 

Polian just plain made bad , bad decisions on the O Line. Never repaced Tarik Glenn until finally using a first on Castonzo. That was after trading a future first to draft Ugoh in the second. He let Jake Scott walk and somehow decided the right move after 2009 SB to the Saints was to make Lilja the scapegoat and release him. Also stuck with Ryan Diem 2 years after he passed his peak. I'm sure his nepotism also played a bit into this.