That Guy's Mock Draft 4.0

[That Guy]

Round 1 (Trade Up) - Marshon Lattimore - CB Ohio State

I remember talks about trading up with the Bengals to get pick #9.  I now believe that was to nab Marshon Lattimore if he fell that far (which was probable before Sidney Jones' injury).  I still believe that to be the case, and I am expecting us to trade our first, Philip Dorsett, and a conditional pick next year.  If Lattimore is not available, we stay pat and get Reuben Foster, or we trade back for Reddick, Lamp, or Conley.  For this mock, I'm going to assume we get Lattimore.

 

Round 2 - Taylor Moton - RG Western Michigan

Solidifies our O-Line for years.  Castonzo, Mewhort, Kelly, Moton, Clark/Haeg with Clark taking over for Castonzo and Moton and Haeg filling out the right side if Castonzo gets too expensive to keep.  Moton could play tackle in a pinch, but he'll shine at guard.

 

Round 3 - Joe Mixon - RB Oklahoma

I now believe we would look past his crimes if he were available here (don't even bother posting "He won't be here" or "We could get him later"; he's all over the board, and I see him falling to the third).  Talent overrides better judgement here, and our front office is declaring that we need a RB.  Can you make an incentive-based contract that is all character-based incentives rather than performance-based incentives?

 

Round 4A - Tarell Basham - OLB Ohio

Basham and Willis were the two rushers I've wanted since the beginning . 

 

Round 4B - Anthony Walker Jr - ILB Northwestern

Or Beckwith or Anzalone.  Whichever falls here.  All bring something different, but all would be a good 4th round value.

 

Round 4C - Shaquill Griffin - CB Central Florida

Has everything Pagano needs: good press, decent ball skills, good run support, decent speed.

 

Round 5 - Stevie Tu'ikolovatu - NT USC

Thought we'd address NT through free agency, but it hasn't happened (yet?).

[DaColts85]

2 minutes ago, That Guy said:

Round 1 (Trade Up) - Marshon Lattimore - CB Ohio State

I remember talks about trading up with the Bengals to get pick #9.  I now believe that was to nab Marshon Lattimore if he fell that far (which was probable before Sidney Jones' injury).  I still believe that to be the case, and I am expecting us to trade our first, Philip Dorsett, and a conditional pick next year.  If Lattimore is not available, we stay pat and get Reuben Foster, or we trade back for Reddick, Lamp, or Conley.  For this mock, I'm going to assume we get Lattimore.

 

This is not nearly enough value for a team to trade with us.  We are not moving up with this offer at all.

[That Guy]

1 minute ago, DaColts85 said:

This is not nearly enough value for a team to trade with us.  We are not moving up with this offer at all.

I think you're seeing the term "conditional" and thinking fourth round or later.  That is not the case.

 

I think the Bengals need a deep threat WR, and a former first round pick paired with what will probably be a second round pick should be enough to move up six spots.

[DaColts85]

4 minutes ago, That Guy said:

I think you're seeing the term "conditional" and thinking fourth round or later.  That is not the case.

 

I think the Bengals need a deep threat WR, and a former first round pick paired with what will probably be a second round pick should be enough to move up six spots.

Oh no nothing to do with the conditional factor.  You have grossly over valued Dorsett.  No team will move back to 15 and also get an over-drafted WR who has shown he has weaknesses everywhere plus give them anything less than probably two picks.  Plus they probably will not care for future picks.

[throwing BBZ]

An argument over drafting up, Dorsett, and giving up a conditional 2nd rd pick.
 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

I'd rather just stay at 15 and take Conley. And have Feeney over Moton. 

[BlueShoe]

@That Guy

 

Your post brings up some good conversation points. 

 

First, I do not think Dorsett is a trade candidate for this year, but I do believe if Aiken steals reps from him then he could be traded next year. 

 

Second, I agree that if we move up, it will be for Lattimore. It makes sense. That said, I think we are too pick-hungry this year to move up. I believe we will do the opposite and move down. There are good players to grab toward the mid-late first round. We could use an extra third round pick in this draft.

 

Third, I never like to give up future draft picks. History is not usually favorable to teams that trade away future draft picks. 

 

As for the later picks in your mock:

 

Taylor Moton could challenge for a starting spot at RG or RT.

 

I believe 100% that Joe Mixon is off our board. I have a him in RED font on mine.

 

Tarell Basham and Anthony Walker are reasonable picks in the fourth round.

 

Shaquill Griffin is one of my guys, and I hope we find a way to bring him aboard. Nice!

 

Stevie Tu'ikolovatu is a very nice pickup in the fifth round. Very Nice!

[NorthernBlue]

I like some of your late round picks. Walker is one of my favourites. I think he'll be a solid sideline to sideline guy who won't look lost in coverage (at least compared to our current guys).

 

But like some have said here, no way do I think that's enough to move up to 9, and the cost to move up there will only increase if Lattimore is still on the board (I don't see him making it past Carolina).

 

Plus I don't see Ballard being the kind to trade picks away to move up.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, That Guy said:

I think you're seeing the term "conditional" and thinking fourth round or later.  That is not the case.

 

I think the Bengals need a deep threat WR, and a former first round pick paired with what will probably be a second round pick should be enough to move up six spots.

 

It wouldn't be.     Dorsett doesn't have much trade value.

 

Plus the 2nd round pick in 2018 would only have 3rd round value since it's a year away.      The Bengals aren't getting enough.

 

 

[That Guy]

15 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

It wouldn't be.     Dorsett doesn't have much trade value.

 

Plus the 2nd round pick in 2018 would only have 3rd round value since it's a year away.      The Bengals aren't getting enough.

 

 

I appreciate your understanding.

 

Pick #9 is worth 1350 "points"

Pick #15 is worth 1050 "points"

 

300 point difference.

 

If next year's 2 is worth a 3 this year (and I agree that sounds right), then it is worth around 200 points (we'll go with pick #78).  That leaves 100 points to make up (an early fourth rounder).

 

It comes down to: do you think Dorsett (who has shown flashes but nothing consistent) would be worth a fourth rounder to a team that has zero WR depth and has bled talent for two straight years?

 

I think so.