In depth statistics for 1st round success/bust rate

[Luck 4 president]

I found this interesting article that I thought you guys would enjoy. It details the success and bust rates for each position in the first round over a 25 and 10 year period. 

 

For example, it shows over a 10 year period drafting an OL is the safest option while drafting a RB is the riskiest (see bust rate over 10 years. This is for you Cook fanboys.) 

LB and S are also very safe picks. Drafting a S, you are 3x more likely to draft a pro bowler than drafting a bust. 

I thought this was a very interesting read while we get ready for the draft. Let me know what you guys think.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft.amp.html

 

[UKColt13]

Very interesting looking at those stats. Certainly shows a shift towards early round LBs that favours our chances nicely.

[throwing BBZ]

Interesting thx.

[AZColt11]

So according to this we should be looking at guys like Foster, Reddick, Hooker and Adams (if still there).

[aaron11]

interesting, but im not a big fan of drawing a correlation from the success rate based on what pick a player was drafted at.  its more like a fun fact when it comes to the first round

 

positional success rate might be telling though

[2006Coltsbestever]

See, Lamp is the man.

[Luck 4 president]

6 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

So according to this we should be looking at guys like Foster, Reddick, Hooker and Adams (if still there).

Ya pretty much sums it up. I also wouldn't be against Lamp due to the high success rate at G. But if one of the guys you listed is there then they are our best bets.

[shasta519]

16 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

So according to this we should be looking at guys like Foster, Reddick, Hooker and Adams (if still there).

 

Toss in Lattimore and that's the only list of players I have really been looking at since January (though Reddick was later addition). I just don't see anyone on defense that stands out after those guys...which is why I have been a huge proponent of trading down to at least get an additional 3rd round pick.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 3/29/2017 at 0:53 PM, UKColt13 said:

Very interesting looking at those stats. Certainly shows a shift towards early round LBs that favours our chances nicely.

 

Depends upon who our GM / FO / Coaches are targeting.

 

On 3/29/2017 at 7:39 PM, AZColt11 said:

So according to this we should be looking at guys like Foster, Reddick, Hooker and Adams (if still there).

 

This won't influence how the team fine tunes the draft board.  Pure scouting and grading by the scout team. GM, and coaches set the players targeted.  Not the 'bust rate'.  Does not mean that the guys you just listed aren't targeted players though...

 

On 3/29/2017 at 7:54 PM, aaron11 said:

interesting, but im not a big fan of drawing a correlation from the success rate based on what pick a player was drafted at.  its more like a fun fact when it comes to the first round

 

positional success rate might be telling though

 

Agreed. Really interesting facts for fans.  But I will tell you this, there is a very good chance teams will look at their evaluation and selection process a lot harder on passing on a guy like Dak Prescott 3 times rather than determining the issues that created a bust like Bjorn Werner.

 

If you listen to the people that do it (draft selection process) or have done it, you find they became the way they are based upon lessons learned the 'hard way'  ...   as much as the successes they have.  They 'remember' the lessons learned form getting it (the player) wrong, not because they targeted the wrong playing group.

[chad72]

With the 15th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select

 

O.J.Howard, TE, Alabama  

 

[chad72]

On 3/29/2017 at 7:39 PM, AZColt11 said:

So according to this we should be looking at guys like Foster, Reddick, Hooker and Adams (if still there).

 

But if we want Pro-Bowlers, we should include TE in the mix too. 

 

The sample space is small but out of the ones that are drafted in the first round, I'd rather go for a well rounded TE over an WR or RB, if I had to choose a skill position based on this data. 

[Superman]

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

With the 15th pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, the Indianapolis Colts select

 

O.J.Howard, TE, Alabama  

 

 

We'd have a Pro Bowl level TE... 

[Colts_Fan12]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

We'd have a Pro Bowl level TE... 

Guess I'd rather have a pro bowl level ILB or CB 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

Guess I'd rather have a pro bowl level ILB or CB 

 

Only saying you can do a lot worse than a great player like Howard. Not that I want us to draft him.

[Colts_Fan12]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Only saying you can do a lot worse than a great player like Howard. Not that I want us to draft him.

I agree we could go RB....

[Superman]

23 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I agree we could go RB....

 

Getting a good player, no matter the position, would be better than getting a bad player, no matter the position. Even a good kicker would be better than a bad edge rusher.

 

I don't think a good GM would draft Howard, or a RB, or definitely a kicker, in the first round for the Colts. 

[Colts_Fan12]

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Getting a good player, no matter the position, would be better than getting a bad player, no matter the position. Even a good kicker would be better than a bad edge rusher.

 

I don't think a good GM would draft Howard, or a RB, or definitely a kicker, in the first round for the Colts. 

Me either I am hoping Ballard is a good GM lol