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Bill Barnwell: 5 moves for each AFC South Team


bababooey

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Indianapolis Colts

 

1. Get Arthur Jones to take a pay cut. New general manager Chris Ballard has $60 million in cap space to work with, so he doesn't necessarily need to be spendthrift, but Jones has been a disaster since coming over from the Ravens, due to injuries and suspensions. He's unlikely to stick on his current $7.4 million cap hit, so the Colts will probably either ask him to take a pay cut or release the former Ravens standout outright.

2. Fix the right side of the offensive line. Keeping Andrew Luck safe is job No. 1 for Ballard, after the deposed Ryan Grigson repeatedly struck out in doing so. The Colts are locked into the trio of Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort and Ryan Kelly, and while Castonzo hasn't been an upper-echelon left tackle, moving him to a position he hasn't played as a pro in right tackle is probably just going to make things more difficult.

Ballard can't go into Week 1 with Denzelle Good and Joe Haeg on the right side of the line. He could very well use his first-round pick on a tackle, while heading into free agency for somebody such as Larry Warford or Kevin Zeitler to play right guard. Luck's ability and desire to extend plays means he'll always take more hits than most quarterbacks, but teams can't be allowed to tee off on Indy's franchise quarterback any longer.

3. Find a top pass-rusher. Easier said than done, but the Colts are totally bereft on the edge. Erik Walden had a career year with an 11-sack campaign, but he's a free agent and turns 32 before the season. Robert Mathis, the only other player on the team who topped three sacks, retired. Trent Cole is on his way out. Akeem Ayers is a free agent. Outside linebacker is a gaping hole.

Indy could re-sign Walden, but given the former Packers player had 12 sacks across his first three seasons before picking up those 11 sacks last season, the Colts can't rely on him to be their primary pass-rusher. They will probably need to head into free agency and pay full freight for one of the edge rushers hitting the market. If the Cardinals and Chargers franchise Chandler Jones and Melvin Ingram, respectively, that market is going to be quite thin. Indy might have to be the team that takes a risk on paying Jason Pierre-Paul or Nick Perry, if only because they don't really have another clear path toward an upgrade.

4. Find a long-term solution at running back. Frank Gore has been underwhelming during his time in Indianapolis, although the offensive line hasn't helped much. The Colts could consider cutting the veteran back before the final year of his deal to save $3.5 million, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Indy hold onto Gore as part of a rotation with a younger back, one who will take over as the starter in 2018 and beyond.

That back will most likely come in the draft, given that this is a relatively robust draft class of halfbacks. Indy could feasibly consider Leonard Fournette, if he drops to the 14th pick, although the Colts have too many holes along the line of scrimmage to spend such a high selection on a running back. It's more plausible for Ballard to consider somebody such as Christian McCaffrey, if he slipped to Round 2.

5. Add a second tight end. The Colts might be priced out of the market for Jack Doyle in a relatively thin tight end class, and they can't really afford to pay their second tight end $6 million per year to line up behind Dwayne Allen. They could take a shot on somebody such as Luke Willson or Mychal Rivera, but more plausibly, this would be a position for the Colts to address in the draft.

If his market falls to the $4 million range, though, the Colts might very well be able to justify bringing back Doyle after a breakout 59-catch campaign. Is he worth it? Hard to say. Over the past four seasons, no wide receiver or tight end with 100 targets or more has caught a higher percentage of the passes thrown his way than Doyle (79.7 percent). Not coincidentally, though, the average pass thrown to Doyle has traveled just 4.7 yards in the air, the lowest total in the league by nearly seven-tenths of a yard.

 

For other AFC South teams, read the rest here: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell5Moves2017AFCS/bill-barnwell-five-moves-afc-south-team-make-2017-nfl-offseason

 

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All are good suggestions, my list would go as follows:

 

1) Cut Arthur Jones yesterday

2) Haeg & Clark will likely be the starters here, if an upgrade can be had in FA so be it

3) We need more than just 1 pass rusher, I hope we double up in FA and the draft

4) Off-field issues aside, I'm hoping for Mixon in the 3rd or 4th round

5) TE is tricky because of Allen's contract, not sure what to do there, I'll defer to Ballard's decision

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39 minutes ago, bababooey said:

That back will most likely come in the draft, given that this is a relatively robust draft class of halfbacks. Indy could feasibly consider Leonard Fournette, if he drops to the 14th pick

 

Words can't explain how excited I would be.  He ain't falling that far though.  I will got shot for this, but I'd even consider moving up for him.

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Just now, bananabucket said:

 

Words can't explain how excited I would be.  He ain't falling that far though.  I will got shot for this, but I'd even consider moving up for him.

I don't think we are in a position to give up picks to move up on a first round runningback...

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11 minutes ago, bababooey said:

I don't think we are in a position to give up picks to move up on a first round runningback...

 

 

We have the rest of the draft, FA, or even trades to fill out the roster.  And the defense is not going to be built in one season anyway.  I guarantee you Fournette would have a greater impact on the team than a mid-first round defender.  

 

I don't think Atlanta regrets going after Julio Jones.

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20 minutes ago, UKColt13 said:

We won't do all of those in 1 offseason.

 

We could, but we won't.

 

Why? We can field a playoff caliber team with the right moves. We have the cap room and a top 5 QB. So adding a couple dominant EDGE rushers, an ILB or 2 with coverage skills, a CB oppo Davis and maybe a G or a NT and we're set. And we have the draft and FA to do all this. We'd need to hit on our first 3 picks, and find a gem later in the draft but it can be done.

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2 hours ago, bananabucket said:

I don't think Atlanta regrets going after Julio Jones.

 

You sure about that?  That team is hamstrung with what they can do b/c they have so much money tied up in their QB/WR combo and not to add that Julio gets hurt every year.  Atlanta will feel the wrath this off season when they try to upgrade their defense while some of their young stars (see RB Freeman) become FAs.

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3 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 How about, our ground game has been underwhelming?

Ranked 23 .  Indianapolis      

 

That would be a much better description but the best part of our running game has been attributed to gore. The guy is as tough as nails as an old runner. I'm okay with drafting a RB but not early. I would rather do that early next draft. 

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4 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

 

Why? We can field a playoff caliber team with the right moves. We have the cap room and a top 5 QB. So adding a couple dominant EDGE rushers, an ILB or 2 with coverage skills, a CB oppo Davis and maybe a G or a NT and we're set. And we have the draft and FA to do all this. We'd need to hit on our first 3 picks, and find a gem later in the draft but it can be done.

 

Exactly what I said. We absolutely could. But since when have we ever gone into an offseason and addressed every need? Our roster is likely a 2 offseason problem.

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1 minute ago, UKColt13 said:

 

Exactly what I said. We absolutely could. But since when have we ever gone into an offseason and addressed every need? Our roster is likely a 2 offseason problem.

 

We have a new GM now. Pags always wanted to be in win now mode. Which, when you have a young, top 5 franchise QB is the only reasonable thing to do. So I feel with 60 mill in cap room CB will want to make a couple big splashes in FA. An Ingram and Zeitler maybe. Or a Perry, Bouye, and Lang. I think CB will want to get us back to contending right away, as it makes no sense not to. Go all out in FA, then start building through the draft.

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5 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

Lol gore has been everything but underwhelming 

 

Gore, IMO, has been one of the best backs in the league the past 2 years -- he is just playing with an awful OL, weird play-calling schemes and last year with an offense that was operating behind a back-up QB for a good chunk of the year.

 

5 hours ago, bananabucket said:

 

 

We have the rest of the draft, FA, or even trades to fill out the roster.  And the defense is not going to be built in one season anyway.  I guarantee you Fournette would have a greater impact on the team than a mid-first round defender.  

 

I don't think Atlanta regrets going after Julio Jones.

 

Fournette's stock is dropping after missing 6 games last year (well 5 and a bowl game) and rarely does a RB make a huge impact anymore if he doesn't have the line to support him.  Ezekiel Elliot had a very good rookie year, but he also could have driven mack trucks through the holes his line opens for him.  Frank Gore is on of the GOATs at RB, still playing at a high level and he's struggling with this offensive line (few if any RBs in the NFL wouldn't be).  I don't trust putting stock in a rookie coming in and turning our running game around if our OL doesn't greatly improve.

 

4 hours ago, chrisfarley said:

I would argue that Gore was not "underwhelming".  There were struggles, sure, but he has a lot of heart and made us better --- hard to measure heart and leading by example.  He didn't watch every game like we did, nor replays of games much less.

 

I agree with your argument.  He's got more than just heart -- he's a heck of a football player who has a very good chance of moving into the 4th or 5th spot on the NFL all-time rushing list next season.  He just has had a bad situation in Indy.

 

2 hours ago, bababooey said:

Would you take him or Walden?

 

To me, JPP is a DE in a 4-3 scheme -- not sure he'd be a very good LBer or DE in a 3-4.  He's younger and more talented of a player than Walden, but not sure I would want us spending the money to bring him here if we weren't planning on changing our D scheme.

 

2 hours ago, tikyle said:

 

You sure about that?  That team is hamstrung with what they can do b/c they have so much money tied up in their QB/WR combo and not to add that Julio gets hurt every year.  Atlanta will feel the wrath this off season when they try to upgrade their defense while some of their young stars (see RB Freeman) become FAs.

 

Julio Jones had 300 yards receiving in a single game this year -- he only had one significant injury in his career and he is arguably the best WR in the game of football -- he changes the way other teams play.  I doubt Atlanta has much regret about him.

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6 hours ago, bababooey said:

ind.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true

Indianapolis Colts

 

1. Get Arthur Jones to take a pay cut. New general manager Chris Ballard has $60 million in cap space to work with, so he doesn't necessarily need to be spendthrift, but Jones has been a disaster since coming over from the Ravens, due to injuries and suspensions. He's unlikely to stick on his current $7.4 million cap hit, so the Colts will probably either ask him to take a pay cut or release the former Ravens standout outright.

2. Fix the right side of the offensive line. Keeping Andrew Luck safe is job No. 1 for Ballard, after the deposed Ryan Grigson repeatedly struck out in doing so. The Colts are locked into the trio of Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort and Ryan Kelly, and while Castonzo hasn't been an upper-echelon left tackle, moving him to a position he hasn't played as a pro in right tackle is probably just going to make things more difficult.

Ballard can't go into Week 1 with Denzelle Good and Joe Haeg on the right side of the line. He could very well use his first-round pick on a tackle, while heading into free agency for somebody such as Larry Warford or Kevin Zeitler to play right guard. Luck's ability and desire to extend plays means he'll always take more hits than most quarterbacks, but teams can't be allowed to tee off on Indy's franchise quarterback any longer.

3. Find a top pass-rusher. Easier said than done, but the Colts are totally bereft on the edge. Erik Walden had a career year with an 11-sack campaign, but he's a free agent and turns 32 before the season. Robert Mathis, the only other player on the team who topped three sacks, retired. Trent Cole is on his way out. Akeem Ayers is a free agent. Outside linebacker is a gaping hole.

Indy could re-sign Walden, but given the former Packers player had 12 sacks across his first three seasons before picking up those 11 sacks last season, the Colts can't rely on him to be their primary pass-rusher. They will probably need to head into free agency and pay full freight for one of the edge rushers hitting the market. If the Cardinals and Chargers franchise Chandler Jones and Melvin Ingram, respectively, that market is going to be quite thin. Indy might have to be the team that takes a risk on paying Jason Pierre-Paul or Nick Perry, if only because they don't really have another clear path toward an upgrade.

4. Find a long-term solution at running back. Frank Gore has been underwhelming during his time in Indianapolis, although the offensive line hasn't helped much. The Colts could consider cutting the veteran back before the final year of his deal to save $3.5 million, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see Indy hold onto Gore as part of a rotation with a younger back, one who will take over as the starter in 2018 and beyond.

That back will most likely come in the draft, given that this is a relatively robust draft class of halfbacks. Indy could feasibly consider Leonard Fournette, if he drops to the 14th pick, although the Colts have too many holes along the line of scrimmage to spend such a high selection on a running back. It's more plausible for Ballard to consider somebody such as Christian McCaffrey, if he slipped to Round 2.

5. Add a second tight end. The Colts might be priced out of the market for Jack Doyle in a relatively thin tight end class, and they can't really afford to pay their second tight end $6 million per year to line up behind Dwayne Allen. They could take a shot on somebody such as Luke Willson or Mychal Rivera, but more plausibly, this would be a position for the Colts to address in the draft.

If his market falls to the $4 million range, though, the Colts might very well be able to justify bringing back Doyle after a breakout 59-catch campaign. Is he worth it? Hard to say. Over the past four seasons, no wide receiver or tight end with 100 targets or more has caught a higher percentage of the passes thrown his way than Doyle (79.7 percent). Not coincidentally, though, the average pass thrown to Doyle has traveled just 4.7 yards in the air, the lowest total in the league by nearly seven-tenths of a yard.

 

For other AFC South teams, read the rest here: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell5Moves2017AFCS/bill-barnwell-five-moves-afc-south-team-make-2017-nfl-offseason

 

Isn't Akeem Ayers still under contract?

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41 minutes ago, Virtuoso80 said:

Isn't Akeem Ayers still under contract?

He is under contract. I made a thread about it a couple weeks ago and we found sport track was wrong. He signed a two year deal. I assume Grigson did this so we didn't have 4 open spots for olb this offseason.

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12 minutes ago, bababooey said:

According to spotrac.com he is a free agent.

 

2 minutes ago, KB said:

He is under contract. I made a thread about it a couple weeks ago and we found sport track was wrong. He signed a two year deal. I assume Grigson did this so we didn't have 4 open spots for olb this offseason.

overthecap.com has him still on the roster for 2.6 mil vs the cap this year

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