Colts 25-0 with Luck when allowing less than 19 Pts

[PeterBowman]

http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Colts-Thinking-A-Lot-About-Defense-With-Free-Agency-Approaching/edbae5da-06ba-4692-af3f-f61182049f32

 

 

good reason to improve the D

 

and that's an insane stat no matter how you put it.

[SilentHill]

I can't believe the Colts D has allowed 19 or less in 25 games since 2012!

[Colts1324]

It is crazy. And shows even more so we have not given Luck a good surrounding talent. But a lot of those points have come off luck turnovers(regardless if they are his fault). He has gotten better. Still makes a few dumb throws. It doesn't help that the receivers don't cut out of their routes clean enough, and the high and tipped passes cause most of the turnovers. 

[Luck is Good]

That is an incredible stat. And yet, Ryan Grigson used 2 first round picks on a RB and a WR. I have all the confidence in the world in Chris Ballard that he will create a strong defense

[SteelCityColt]

We actually have the best win % of any team since 2012 in games where we've allowed 19 points or less... sadly that's only been 27 games:

 

http://tinyurl.com/zgb85n6

 

19 seems a bit of an arbitary number that's been picked to make it the 25-0 gotcha stat. 17 or 21 would seem a more sane number to pick. Going with 21:

 

http://tinyurl.com/gn3w3rf

 

Still decent.

[GoDeep]

Let's go D!  I'm tired of watching opposing QBs sit in the pocket with no pressure.  Our secondary will instantly improve with a better pass rush.

[Finball]

35 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

We actually have the best win % of any team since 2012 in games where we've allowed 19 points or less... sadly that's only been 27 games:

 

http://tinyurl.com/zgb85n6

 

19 seems a bit of an arbitary number that's been picked to make it the 25-0 gotcha stat. 17 or 21 would seem a more sane number to pick. Going with 21:

 

http://tinyurl.com/gn3w3rf

 

Still decent.

 

2nd best in the league and not far off from #1.

 

LOL @ jags being 0.500 when allowing 21 points or less.

[Cynjin]

2 hours ago, Finball said:

 

2nd best in the league and not far off from #1.

 

LOL @ jags being 0.500 when allowing 21 points or less.

 

It's even funnier when realize that the Jags have picked in the top 10 of the draft for the past 10 years and in the top 5 for the past 5 or 6 years.  Yet they still stink.  Whenever I am down on the Colts, I just look at the Jags.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Yeah this stat still blows me away. Andrew never loses when this happens.

[tvturner]

Glad to see this stat finally make some news

[2006Coltsbestever]

23 minutes ago, Boomstick1 said:

Glad to see this stat finally make some news

Me too, Cowherd had brought it up about a month ago and I thought no way that could be true. Then you Posted it here 1st a couple of days ago, then I added to it.

[CR91]

Interesting stat, but 19 points isn't going to win you a lot of games so I don't really see the merit to this stat

[21isSuperman]

26 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Interesting stat, but 19 points isn't going to win you a lot of games so I don't really see the merit to this stat

Give Luck even an average defense and you'll be in a position to win many games

[oldunclemark]

26 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Interesting stat, but 19 points isn't going to win you a lot of games so I don't really see the merit to this stat

Exactly, CR....Most teams win a lot when they allow less than 19 points..

 

 

[oldunclemark]

1 minute ago, 21isSuperman said:

Give Luck even an average defense and you'll be in a position to win many games

True. The fact that we've only held teams under 20........... 25 times since 2012  is the bigger deal

[CR91]

35 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

Give Luck even an average defense and you'll be in a position to win many games

 

But we've known that for years

[Douzer]

The 19 point mark is a big deal!

 

While defenses can be ranked by 'yards against', and other various measures, points against is the only one that truly matters. Historically you are not a 'good' defense unless you give up less than 20 ppg, thus 19 ppg matters. 17 is the marker for 'elite' defense, and 15 & under defines 'great' defenses.

 

And, despite those various rankings, the team that won the Super Bowl this year gave up the least amount of points per game this season... 250 in 16 games, that's 15.6. Next closest was NY Giants 284-17.7, then Seattle 292-18.2, followed by the Broncos 297-18.5.

 

Notice a pattern? You should, it's a list of modern Super Bowl Champs...

 

 

[krunk]

10 hours ago, CR91 said:

Interesting stat, but 19 points isn't going to win you a lot of games so I don't really see the merit to this stat

did you really understand the stat?

[krunk]

10 hours ago, oldunclemark said:

Exactly, CR....Most teams win a lot when they allow less than 19 points..

 

 

Thats not what CR said. He said 19 points isn't going to win a whole lot of games. You're saying the opposite. You're saying it will.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

I'd think that any QB with a pulse could win at least 3/4 of the time with a defense only giving up 19ppg or less. But 25-0 is pretty dang impressive, even though I'm guessing most of those wins came against pre-2016 AFC South teams.

[CR91]

18 minutes ago, krunk said:

did you really understand the stat?

 

What I'm saying is teams that score 19 points aren't going to win a lot of games anyway so what's the point?

[CR91]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

Thats not what CR said. He said 19 points isn't going to win a whole lot of games. You're saying the opposite. You're saying it will.

 

Scoring 19 or being held to 19 is basically the same thing. 19 is 19

 

[krunk]

5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

What I'm saying is teams that score 19 points aren't going to win a lot of games anyway so what's the point?

Who are you speaking about in terms of the 19 points?  Are you speaking about the opponent?  Or are you speaking about us offensively?

[krunk]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

Scoring 19 or being held to 19 is basically the same thing. 19 is 19

 

The stat indicates to me that our winning percentage could really take a spike if we tighten up our defense.  Not necessarily that 19 is the concrete figure, but I'd been saying all along that if we shave off some of those points we allowed defensively last year that probably would have netted us at least 2-4 more wins.  I also think some of the turnovers were key as well.  The offense scores enough points overall.

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, krunk said:

The stat indicates to me that our winning percentage could really take a spike if we tighten up our defense.  Not necessarily that 19 is the concrete figure, but I'd been saying all along that if we shave off some of those points we allowed defensively last year that probably would have netted us at least 2-4 more wins.  I also think some of the turnovers were key as well.  The offense scores enough points overall.

 

But we've been saying for years if luck had a better defense we'd win more games

[krunk]

I think the stat emphasizes it even more.  But yes we knew it was the case.

[gspdx]

3 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

What I'm saying is teams that score 19 points aren't going to win a lot of games anyway so what's the point?

 

The point here is can we hold teams that would otherwise score 25 to 30 and beat us to the 19 pt threshold? That gives us a much better chance of winning games against good teams.  It's not about scoring more than teams that normally score 19.  It's about holding teams to a lower level than their average.  That takes a better than average defense and we haven't had that.

[AZColt11]

I think the LARGER point here would be playoffs.  We know teams with really good offenses can win in the regular season, but how many win Superbowls?  Especially ones with poor defenses?  Not many that I can recall.  In fact, the only one that comes immediately to mind is the 2006 Colts.

 

Improve the defense and the Colts' chances of competing for a Superbowl go up.

[lollygagger8]

Ballard did say he's a stats/numbers guy.....and this stat makes it blatantly obvious what needs the most work. 

[Valpo2004]

On 2/21/2017 at 10:08 PM, Douzer said:

The 19 point mark is a big deal!

 

While defenses can be ranked by 'yards against', and other various measures, points against is the only one that truly matters. Historically you are not a 'good' defense unless you give up less than 20 ppg, thus 19 ppg matters. 17 is the marker for 'elite' defense, and 15 & under defines 'great' defenses.

 

And, despite those various rankings, the team that won the Super Bowl this year gave up the least amount of points per game this season... 250 in 16 games, that's 15.6. Next closest was NY Giants 284-17.7, then Seattle 292-18.2, followed by the Broncos 297-18.5.

 

Notice a pattern? You should, it's a list of modern Super Bowl Champs...

 

 

 

This seems to be fairly accurate if one notes that better then 20 ppg is "good".  

 

Last year 8 teams gave up less then 20 points per game in the NFL.  So that's the top 25% of NFL defenses.

 

The median number was 23.6 ppg.  So between 20 and 23.6 ppg would establish your defense as "above average"

 

The third quarter of teams was between 23.6 to 24.9.  This is where the Colts where.  The Colts gave up 24.5 ppg.  Below average but it actually doesn't seem quite that bad.  

 

The last quarter of teams is between 25 ppg to 30 ppg.  

 

We should also note though that in terms of yards, the Colts defense was 3rd from the worst in the NFL.  While the Texans where the best in the NFL.  

 

Actually I find it quite interesting that there are some teams who gave up a lot of points but very few yards while other teams gave up a lot of yards but few points.

 

Chiefs for example where 24th in yards allowed (368.5 per game) but 7th in points allowed (19.4)  

 

Jags on the other hand where 25 in points allowed (25 per game) but 6th in yards allowed (321.7)

 

 

 

 

[PeterBowman]

10 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

I think the LARGER point here would be playoffs.  We know teams with really good offenses can win in the regular season, but how many win Superbowls?  Especially ones with poor defenses?  Not many that I can recall.  In fact, the only one that comes immediately to mind is the 2006 Colts.

 

Improve the defense and the Colts' chances of competing for a Superbowl go up.

true, but in those playoffs the Colts D played like a top 5 D.

[RockThatBlue]

On 2/22/2017 at 9:39 AM, CR91 said:

 

But we've been saying for years if luck had a better defense we'd win more games

That's the point of the stat.

[Douzer]

6 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

This seems to be fairly accurate if one notes that better then 20 ppg is "good".  

 

Last year 8 teams gave up less then 20 points per game in the NFL.  So that's the top 25% of NFL defenses.

 

The median number was 23.6 ppg.  So between 20 and 23.6 ppg would establish your defense as "above average"

 

The third quarter of teams was between 23.6 to 24.9.  This is where the Colts where.  The Colts gave up 24.5 ppg.  Below average but it actually doesn't seem quite that bad.  

 

The last quarter of teams is between 25 ppg to 30 ppg.  

 

We should also note though that in terms of yards, the Colts defense was 3rd from the worst in the NFL.  While the Texans where the best in the NFL.  

 

Actually I find it quite interesting that there are some teams who gave up a lot of points but very few yards while other teams gave up a lot of yards but few points.

 

Chiefs for example where 24th in yards allowed (368.5 per game) but 7th in points allowed (19.4)  

 

Jags on the other hand where 25 in points allowed (25 per game) but 6th in yards allowed (321.7)

 

 

 

 

Good stuff... Gaging the Chiefs and Jags defenses based on yards, one might think the Jags were a contender and the Chiefs were crud.

 

Yards just don't matter at the bottom line, points do.

 

The Chiefs are similar to the good Dungy Colts teams, who also gave up a bunch of midfield yardage but stiffened in the 'red zone' and forced field goals.

[bleevit]

On 2/21/2017 at 3:29 PM, GoDeep said:

Let's go D!  I'm tired of watching opposing QBs sit in the pocket with no pressure.  Our secondary will instantly improve with a better pass rush.

I thoroughly agree. This talk of a running back in the first round is not thought out well. The Colts need some defensive studs. Gore, barring injury, is fully capable of playing another year. When a draft class is as deep at running back as this one, pulling the trigger early is pointless. Running back might be a good selection for the compensatory pick. Please, Mr. Ballard help this defense.

[rock8591]

Look no further than DeMarco Murray when he left the Cowboys, as to how overrated the RB position is.

[ColtStrong]

It just goes to show how important defense is....... Let's hope the new regime gets it.

[indyagent17]

Sadly, you give most teams under 19pts most every QB would have a very high percentage but its sad that all those years were wasted with a below average defense