Andrew Luck: Ultimate Scouting Report

[Dan]

Note: Please try to not turn this thread into another argument on whether we should pick him, trade the pick etc. This thread is purely to educate on exactly WHY he's so well hyped. Hopefully this will allay the fears of some who "don't get the hype". Let's discuss the player rather than the draft itself.

Andrew Luck Ultimate Scouting Report

This hyperlink leads to Mel Kiper and Todd McShay breaking down every detail of Andrew Luck's play.

Short Accuracy

Deep Accuracy

Arm Strength

Measurables

Release

Pocket Presence

Mobility

Production

Toughness

Intelligence

All of these tabs contain videos and explanations of how Andrew Luck performs under those areas, in particular compared to Peyton Manning, John Elway and Matt Ryan. I've posted this page on here a few times whenever someone has said "I don't get what's so good about him" - well these videos go beyond the numbers. Whether you want us to draft him or not, think he'll sit behind Peyton or won't - these videos show if we DO end up selecting him, we have reason to be excited.

[UndecidedFrog]

Thank you for posting this. Yes, I agree with Kiper and McShay, Andrew Luck has the tools to succeed in the NFL.

He may be over-hyped, but I think he is under-rated.

I am hoping other Colts fans will be excited in getting him on the team.

[KeyserSoza]

I would be very disappointed if we didn't draft him.

[Bleedin Blue]

I would be very disappointed if we didn't draft him.

As would I. There is much more to loose by not drafting Luck than by passing on him. Franchises don't get the #1 pick overall easily and the opportunity to take a franchise quarterback must be realized. Even if Luck turns out to be a bust...no one in this league will say, "wow, what were the Colts thinking". Almost every scout says that Luck is the best QB prospect in over a decade. With so much depending on QB play, it only make sense to take him and then fill the holes in the team from there.

[JWF]

As would I. There is much more to loose by not drafting Luck than by passing on him. Franchises don't get the #1 pick overall easily and the opportunity to take a franchise quarterback must be realized. Even if Luck turns out to be a bust...no one in this league will say, "wow, what were the Colts thinking". Almost every scout says that Luck is the best QB prospect in over a decade. With so much depending on QB play, it only make sense to take him and then fill the holes in the team from there.

Very well said.

I still hope somehow Manning and Luck can be on this team next year. I think if you have a talent like Luck and put him behind a guy like Manning, even if Peyton doesnt go out of his way to mentor him, he's going to be that much more ahead of the curve.

I did hear an interview on Sirius NFL today with Irsay and he made it clear paying money out of his pocket, if its good for the team, doesnt bother him at all. Maybe im wrong but I think most of the money issues with keeping both is the willingness of Irsay to pay the bonuses. I just get a sense if Luck is willing to sit a little while behind Manning Irsay has no problems having both.

Obviously no one knows what Luck really thinks and im sure its not going to be easy to make it work but I think the Colts have to try. Just too good of an opprotunity to pass up.

[UndecidedFrog]

As would I. There is much more to loose by not drafting Luck than by passing on him. Franchises don't get the #1 pick overall easily and the opportunity to take a franchise quarterback must be realized. Even if Luck turns out to be a bust...no one in this league will say, "wow, what were the Colts thinking". Almost every scout says that Luck is the best QB prospect in over a decade. With so much depending on QB play, it only make sense to take him and then fill the holes in the team from there.

Yet there are some of us who thinks that trading the #1 pick would do the Colts more good.

If Luck is indeed the best prospect since Manning (it gets worse if I say Elway), and assuming there are about 40 QBs in every draft class, that means a QB of Luck's caliber does not appear more often than once in 560 QBs that are available to draft. 2012-1998= 14 x 40 = 560.

Now compound that probability with the probability that the Colts will have the first pick in the draft. Conservatively, if all the NFL teams are considered equivalent, they all have the same chance to be in a position to have first pick. Therefore, conservatively, the probability will be 1/32

The combination probability is then (1/560) x (1/32) = 1 out of 17,920.

Not good.

[UndecidedFrog]

I did hear an interview on Sirius NFL today with Irsay and he made it clear paying money out of his pocket, if its good for the team, doesnt bother him at all. Maybe im wrong but I think most of the money issues with keeping both is the willingness of Irsay to pay the bonuses.

It is not just a matter of available real dollars to pay salaries and bonuses, it is working within the overall team salary cap for every year.

For 2012, the team salary cap is projected to be $121.2MM. Under the current contract, Peyton represents the single largest slice of that at $17MM (or 14%), assuming he plays in 2012.

Adding Luck at $4.2MM and a #3 QB at league minimum salary will make the QB position represent 19% of the total team salary cap.

The absolute worse case scenario is to keep Peyton by paying the option bonus of $28MM due March 8, and have him cut or retire before June 1, thereby hitting the salary cap with $38.4MM (due to the acceleration of the pro-rated bonus payments), and representing 32% of the 2012 total team salary cap. IOW, if this happens, one third of the salary cap will have been spent on a player that is not playing in 2012.

[JWF]

It is not just a matter of available real dollars to pay salaries and bonuses, it is working within the overall team salary cap for every year.

For 2012, the team salary cap is projected to be $121.2MM. Under the current contract, Peyton represents the single largest slice of that at $17MM (or 14%), assuming he plays in 2012.

Adding Luck at $4.2MM and a #3 QB at league minimum salary will make the QB position represent 19% of the total team salary cap.

The absolute worse case scenario is to keep Peyton by paying the option bonus of $28MM due March 8, and have him cut or retire before June 1, thereby hitting the salary cap with $38.4MM (due to the acceleration of the pro-rated bonus payments), and representing 32% of the 2012 total team salary cap. IOW, if this happens, one third of the salary cap will have been spent on a player that is not playing in 2012.

Yeah im pretty ignorant of the cap figures right now. Im sure it will be extremely difficult to make it work.

Im hoping they try.

Well see though.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yeah im pretty ignorant of the cap figures right now. Im sure it will be extremely difficult to make it work.

Im hoping they try.

Well see though.

Yes, we will indeed. I hope sooner rather than later.

[Bleedin Blue]

Very well said.

Actually, in re-reading my post I see that I said the same thing twice..."we have much more to loose by not drafting Luck than by passing on him". Either way we pass on Luck. You all got what I was trying to say and that is that passing on Luck just doesn't make sense. UndecidedFrog provided some of the probabilities on being in this position again and it is indeed astronomical. We are extremely lucky (no pun intended) to be in the position we are in and it seems a lot like 1998 all over again.

[JWF]

Actually, in re-reading my post I see that I said the same thing twice..."we have much more to loose by not drafting Luck than by passing on him". Either way we pass on Luck. You all got what I was trying to say and that is that passing on Luck just doesn't make sense. UndecidedFrog provided some of the probabilities on being in this position again and it is indeed astronomical. We are extremely lucky (no pun intended) to be in the position we are in and it seems a lot like 1998 all over again.

Yeah I was joking with my friend its almost comical how fortunate they are to be in this situation considering.

Obviously 2-14 is never a good thing. I would rather the team have gone 14-2 and won a SB and missed out on Luck. But if there was ever a season to be terrible, this was it.

[coltsfanej]

Looks to have all the tools to succeed at the next level. I hope he excells if we take him.

[funktacious2]

I'm crossing my fingers that he works out. And I don't just mean his play in the NFL I mean I'm hoping he's not whinner if he has to sit behind Peyton for a few years. I don't want a QB that good to force his way out of our selection like Elway did. >.<

[UndecidedFrog]

I'm crossing my fingers that he works out. And I don't just mean his play in the NFL I mean I'm hoping he's not whinner if he has to sit behind Peyton for a few years. I don't want a QB that good to force his way out of our selection like Elway did. >.<

On the other side of the coin, I would be disappointed in anyone I drafted who does not want to be the starter.