Track Guy's January Colts Mock Off Season

[Track Guy]

Re-signings:

Erik Walden

Mike Adams

Robert Turbin

Darius Butler

Jack Doyle

Akeem Ayers

Zach Kerr

Erik Swoope

 

Extensions:

Donte Moncrief

Jack Mewhort

 

Releases:

Arthur Jones

D'Qwell Jackson

 

Free Agent Signings:

Zach Brown, ILB (Bills)
Kevin Zeitler, G (Bengals)

Alan Branch, NT (Patriots)

 

Draft:

R1 - Carl Lawson, Edge Auburn - This guy is an explosive pass rusher. If he can keep healthy (which he struggled with in college before, but has seemingly turned a corner with this year) he has the talent to rack up sacks. Explosive, powerful, good hand usage.

R2 - Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee - An extremely elusive running back, with terrific change of direction ability and receiving skills. Isn't a bulldozer, but he can break tackles. 

R3 - Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia - A corner with proven man cover skills and good size. Also has good ball skills to come down with the interception.

R4 - Marquel Lee, LB, Wake Forest - Linebacker who would fit as a WIL in the 3-4, put up really good numbers at Wake Forest. Good size, listed at 6-3/240.

R4 - Tarell Basham, Edge, Ohio - An edge rusher who could slip in a pretty stacked class this year. Now take this with a grain of salt, because I've not seen this guy play personally (also true of the guy I mocked in the 6th) but reportedly he's shown a bit of cover skills in addition to doing well as a pass rusher.

R5 - Ejuan Price, Edge, Pittsburgh - A highly productive college edge rusher who will only really fit in a 3-4 scheme. He's got size limitations and he's a bit older than most prospects, so he's projected to drop to day 3 even though he's coming off a big season.

R6 - Josh Thornton, CB, Southern Utah - Here's a guy I haven't seen play, but his estimated 40 yard dash time makes him seem like a guy that might be on the radar for our staff in the later rounds. 

 

Approximate Line-up:

Offense: 

QB - Andrew Luck, S. Tolzein

RB - A. Kamara, F. Gore, R. Turbin, UDFA

WR - T. Hilton, D. Moncrief, P. Dorsett, C. Rogers, T. Smith

TE - D. Allen, J. Doyle, E. Swoope

OT - A. Castonzo, L. Clark, J. Haeg, J. Reitz

OG - J. Mewhort, K. Zeitler, D. Good

C - R. Kelly, A. Blythe

Defense: 

NT - Z. Kerr, A. Branch

DT - T. McGill, H. Ridgeway, D. Parry 

DE - H. Anderson, K. Langford

SAM - E. Walden, A. Ayers, C. Maggitt

RUSH - C. Lawson, T. Basham, E. Price

MIKE - Z. Brown, A. Morrison

WIL - E. Jackson, M. Lee

SS - C. Geathers, M. Adams 

FS - D. Butler, T. Green, M. Farley

RCB - V. Davis, R. Douglas

LCB - P. Robinson, R. Melvin, J. Thornton

Special Teams:

K - A. Vinatieri

P - P. McAfee 

LS - M. Overton

 

Analysis:

The personnel for the passing game in the offense is largely the same - except for an upgrade in the protection at the RG spot and an outstanding pass catching RB thrown into the mix. This isn't really a big problem, as our passing offense is talented enough I believe, simply because of #12. Our running game with this lineup should improve due to the same additions. The offensive line should gel better with the players gaining more experience, and if the coaching staff figures out how to game plan effectively this lineup is good enough to score on good defenses. 

The defense should be improved, with fresh legs rushing the passer at OLB and improved personnel at our horribly mismanaged ILB position. The young defensive linemen should take a step forward. Strengthening up the depth in the secondary is paramount, and in particular adding a good player at CB through the draft will help. 

I think this new lineup will put us up there as contenders in the AFC in 2017. Lots of young pass rushers who will need to learn how to succeed at the NFL level, much like some of our O-line investments in 2016. But if they are fast to reach success, then this team with relative health could be a deep playoff/Superbowl threat. 

[MPStack]

I like Alvin Kamara in the 2nd! Thanks for posting!

 

[SP_21]

Jeez you knocked this out of the park. Pretty much perfect off-season to me. 

[Krauses]

Would be a great offseason. I think we could even trade back 10-15 spots and still get Lawson.  I also hope we don't overpay for walden or the moncrief extension

[Manning1887]

I like that you provided a depth chart.

 

personally, I would tender Swoope and Kerr at the 3rd round level. I like them but would allow them to leave for a 3rd round pick.

 

I would not extend Mewhort and sign Zeitler given Joe Haeg. Haeg can start at one spot. I would see if we could get a 4th or 5th rounder for Mewhort.

 

I am not in favor of taking Lawson in the first given his extensive injury history. I am not in favor of taking a running back until day 3 given the depth at the position. I really like the Ejuan Price selection though.

 

If he is there, I prefer Solomon Thomas in the first.

[Track Guy]

51 minutes ago, Manning1887 said:

I like that you provided a depth chart.

 

personally, I would tender Swoope and Kerr at the 3rd round level. I like them but would allow them to leave for a 3rd round pick.

 

I would not extend Mewhort and sign Zeitler given Joe Haeg. Haeg can start at one spot. I would see if we could get a 4th or 5th rounder for Mewhort.

 

I am not in favor of taking Lawson in the first given his extensive injury history. I am not in favor of taking a running back until day 3 given the depth at the position. I really like the Ejuan Price selection though.

 

If he is there, I prefer Solomon Thomas in the first.

 

I'd be fine with tendering those guys you mention. Not personally a fan of just rolling with the O-line we have with 0 change and/or trading Mewhort, but I know some here will think that way. I think the injury concerns you mention with Lawson are valid. The combine medicals should be able to shed some light on where he's at in regards to that, so I'd only pick him there if he got good reviews from the doctors.

[twfish]

1 hour ago, Manning1887 said:

I like that you provided a depth chart.

 

personally, I would tender Swoope and Kerr at the 3rd round level. I like them but would allow them to leave for a 3rd round pick.

 

I would not extend Mewhort and sign Zeitler given Joe Haeg. Haeg can start at one spot. I would see if we could get a 4th or 5th rounder for Mewhort.

 

I am not in favor of taking Lawson in the first given his extensive injury history. I am not in favor of taking a running back until day 3 given the depth at the position. I really like the Ejuan Price selection though.

 

If he is there, I prefer Solomon Thomas in the first.

So attempt to get a 4th round pick for our former 2 round draft pick who is easily one of our best linemen who's really only been injured this past year? I'll take mewhort over Zeitler.

[Track Guy]

20 minutes ago, twfish said:

So attempt to get a 4th round pick for our former 2 round draft pick who is easily one of our best linemen who's really only been injured this past year? I'll take mewhort over Zeitler.

I like the idea of having Mewhort and Zeitler best of all though. 

[Manning1887]

2 hours ago, Track Guy said:

 

I'd be fine with tendering those guys you mention. Not personally a fan of just rolling with the O-line we have with 0 change and/or trading Mewhort, but I know some here will think that way. I think the injury concerns you mention with Lawson are valid. The combine medicals should be able to shed some light on where he's at in regards to that, so I'd only pick him there if he got good reviews from the doctors.

What I am saying is that I would not extend Mewhort and sign Zeitler. One or the other, preferably sign Zeitler and see if a market exists for Mewhort. 

[Manning1887]

2 hours ago, twfish said:

So attempt to get a 4th round pick for our former 2 round draft pick who is easily one of our best linemen who's really only been injured this past year? I'll take mewhort over Zeitler.

Absolutely! I have a differing view of Mewhort. He is slow and will only get slower after the knee injury. Trading him allows us to get something for him as opposed to letting him leave via free agency. Joe Haeg has a bright future at guard, he reminds me a lot of Jake Scott, former Colts guard during the Manning era.

[twfish]

6 minutes ago, Manning1887 said:

Absolutely! I have a differing view of Mewhort. He is slow and will only get slower after the knee injury. Trading him allows us to get something for him as opposed to letting him leave via free agency. Joe Haeg has a bright future at guard, he reminds me a lot of Jake Scott, former Colts guard during the Manning era.

Look i like Joe Haeg too but he is not better than mewhort and mewhort is definitely a better pass blocker. We would be robbed just getting a 4th for him..

[jskinnz]

On January 14, 2017 at 10:33 AM, Track Guy said:

Re-signings:

Erik Walden

Mike Adams

Robert Turbin

Darius Butler

Jack Doyle

Akeem Ayers

Zach Kerr

Erik Swoope

 

Extensions:

Donte Moncrief

Jack Mewhort

 

Releases:

Arthur Jones

D'Qwell Jackson

 

Free Agent Signings:

Zach Brown, ILB (Bills)
Kevin Zeitler, G (Bengals)

Alan Branch, NT (Patriots)

 

Draft:

R1 - Carl Lawson, Edge Auburn - This guy is an explosive pass rusher. If he can keep healthy (which he struggled with in college before, but has seemingly turned a corner with this year) he has the talent to rack up sacks. Explosive, powerful, good hand usage.

R2 - Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee - An extremely elusive running back, with terrific change of direction ability and receiving skills. Isn't a bulldozer, but he can break tackles. 

R3 - Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia - A corner with proven man cover skills and good size. Also has good ball skills to come down with the interception.

R4 - Marquel Lee, LB, Wake Forest - Linebacker who would fit as a WIL in the 3-4, put up really good numbers at Wake Forest. Good size, listed at 6-3/240.

R4 - Tarell Basham, Edge, Ohio - An edge rusher who could slip in a pretty stacked class this year. Now take this with a grain of salt, because I've not seen this guy play personally (also true of the guy I mocked in the 6th) but reportedly he's shown a bit of cover skills in addition to doing well as a pass rusher.

R5 - Ejuan Price, Edge, Pittsburgh - A highly productive college edge rusher who will only really fit in a 3-4 scheme. He's got size limitations and he's a bit older than most prospects, so he's projected to drop to day 3 even though he's coming off a big season.

R6 - Josh Thornton, CB, Southern Utah - Here's a guy I haven't seen play, but his estimated 40 yard dash time makes him seem like a guy that might be on the radar for our staff in the later rounds. 

 

Approximate Line-up:

Offense: 

QB - Andrew Luck, S. Tolzein

RB - A. Kamara, F. Gore, R. Turbin, UDFA

WR - T. Hilton, D. Moncrief, P. Dorsett, C. Rogers, T. Smith

TE - D. Allen, J. Doyle, E. Swoope

OT - A. Castonzo, L. Clark, J. Haeg, J. Reitz

OG - J. Mewhort, K. Zeitler, D. Good

C - R. Kelly, A. Blythe

Defense: 

NT - Z. Kerr, A. Branch

DT - T. McGill, H. Ridgeway, D. Parry 

DE - H. Anderson, K. Langford

SAM - E. Walden, A. Ayers, C. Maggitt

RUSH - C. Lawson, T. Basham, E. Price

MIKE - Z. Brown, A. Morrison

WIL - E. Jackson, M. Lee

SS - C. Geathers, M. Adams 

FS - D. Butler, T. Green, M. Farley

RCB - V. Davis, R. Douglas

LCB - P. Robinson, R. Melvin, J. Thornton

Special Teams:

K - A. Vinatieri

P - P. McAfee 

LS - M. Overton

 

Analysis:

The personnel for the passing game in the offense is largely the same - except for an upgrade in the protection at the RG spot and an outstanding pass catching RB thrown into the mix. This isn't really a big problem, as our passing offense is talented enough I believe, simply because of #12. Our running game with this lineup should improve due to the same additions. The offensive line should gel better with the players gaining more experience, and if the coaching staff figures out how to game plan effectively this lineup is good enough to score on good defenses. 

The defense should be improved, with fresh legs rushing the passer at OLB and improved personnel at our horribly mismanaged ILB position. The young defensive linemen should take a step forward. Strengthening up the depth in the secondary is paramount, and in particular adding a good player at CB through the draft will help. 

I think this new lineup will put us up there as contenders in the AFC in 2017. Lots of young pass rushers who will need to learn how to succeed at the NFL level, much like some of our O-line investments in 2016. But if they are fast to reach success, then this team with relative health could be a deep playoff/Superbowl threat. 

 

This is as good as any offseason forecast but I see one glaring area that I disagree with.

 

I have a really hard time seeing them both sign a big ticket OG and also re-sign Mewhort.  I would be very surprised if they did anything of note with the o'line in free agency.  I think the roll with AC, JM, AK, JH and LC as the starters next year.  Further I would bet the don't extend Mewhort at all.  I think a big FA signing and extending Mewhort is not a good use of the limited resources (cap space) for that particular position.  

 

I believe they like what they saw from the rookies at the end of the year and will see what continuity does for that unit.  They need to focus their $$ on playmaking positions - mainly on defense.

[Dark Superman]

Time for the Colts to get younger. I'm all for moving on from Walden and Adams. The Colts need to make a splash in free agency. Plain and simple.

[Dark Superman]

Walden had one good year here for us and he's 31. Depends on the price but I think we need to ring in Jamie Collins or Chandler Jones.

[Dark Superman]

Zeitler from the Bengals would be a great addition to our OL.

[Dark Superman]

22 hours ago, Track Guy said:

I like the idea of having Mewhort and Zeitler best of all though. 

Costanzo, Mewhort, Kelly, Zeitler, Clark.

 

Add a stud RB in the draft, re-sign Doyle and Swoope continues to grow.

 

Our offense could easily be top 5.

[MPStack]

7 minutes ago, Green_Ranger said:

Time for the Colts to get younger. I'm all for moving on from Walden and Adams. The Colts need to make a splash in free agency. Plain and simple.

 

Signing Adams to a one-year contract, which is pretty much his market value now at 36 yrs old is fine. As far as Walden, I`d be totally shocked if they don`t bring him back on a three-year deal. He earned IMO. Signing both is not going to break the bank and still allows the Colts to hopefully pursue a quality defender or two in free agency. I seriously doubt they sign 4-5 guys in free agency. I have no doubt they will place a serious emphasis on defense in the draft. However, it`s going to take more than one offseason to fix the defense. 

[Track Guy]

4 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

This is as good as any offseason forecast but I see one glaring area that I disagree with.

 

I have a really hard time seeing them both sign a big ticket OG and also re-sign Mewhort.  I would be very surprised if they did anything of note with the o'line in free agency.  I think the roll with AC, JM, AK, JH and LC as the starters next year.  Further I would bet the don't extend Mewhort at all.  I think a big FA signing and extending Mewhort is not a good use of the limited resources (cap space) for that particular position.  

 

I believe they like what they saw from the rookies at the end of the year and will see what continuity does for that unit.  They need to focus their $$ on playmaking positions - mainly on defense.

 

Yeah I know some people on this forum want to do as you describe with the O-line. Personally I feel pretty strongly that it would be a big mistake. Our offensive line needs to improve big time. Teams like the Raiders, Cowboys, Packers, and Steelers are thriving because they've invested big in their OL. A guy like Haeg would still see the field in this projection, because it's unrealistic to keep 5 guys healthy throughout the whole season. Think of it - there were games this year we were missing multiple O-linemen. Just the way I would be thinking, but I know some disagree. 

[ClaytonColt]

7 hours ago, Track Guy said:

 

Yeah I know some people on this forum want to do as you describe with the O-line. Personally I feel pretty strongly that it would be a big mistake. Our offensive line needs to improve big time. Teams like the Raiders, Cowboys, Packers, and Steelers are thriving because they've invested big in their OL. A guy like Haeg would still see the field in this projection, because it's unrealistic to keep 5 guys healthy throughout the whole season. Think of it - there were games this year we were missing multiple O-linemen. Just the way I would be thinking, but I know some disagree. 

We have invested big in our o-line already though. We could field two 1st's, a 2nd, and two 3rd''s on our line.

 

The teams you mentioned have probably invested no more resource than that however they all have playmaker and have invested on the defense. We haven't. 

 

If we sign a high price free agent on the o-line and tie up yet more resources on that side of the ball then I really don't know what sort of lopsided team we're trying to build.

[Track Guy]

5 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

We have invested big in our o-line already though. We could field two 1st's, a 2nd, and two 3rd''s on our line.

 

The teams you mentioned have probably invested no more resource than that however they all have playmaker and have invested on the defense. We haven't. 

 

If we sign a high price free agent on the o-line and tie up yet more resources on that side of the ball then I really don't know what sort of lopsided team we're trying to build.

 

I really don't think I've ignored defense in my mock off season, investing in a starting ILB, a rotational NT, and every single draft pick sans 1 on the defense. As for continued investment in the O-line, we really need to run the football better, simple as that. We have a lot of cheap guys who are on rookie contracts on the O-line now, contrary to what you describe I think we can afford it. 

[ClaytonColt]

3 hours ago, Track Guy said:

 

I really don't think I've ignored defense in my mock off season, investing in a starting ILB, a rotational NT, and every single draft pick sans 1 on the defense. As for continued investment in the O-line, we really need to run the football better, simple as that. We have a lot of cheap guys who are on rookie contracts on the O-line now, contrary to what you describe I think we can afford it. 

Think you're draft is fine, no issues at all with that.

 

I just can't get on board with going after offensive linemen over true defensive play makers in free agency at this point. Think this is a year to allow our young players on offense continue to develop and add depth but not starters on that side of the ball.