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RB production as a function of draft position


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The notion that you don't have to draft a RB high, because you can get a good one later in the draft is wide-spread in the football community. And while it is true that great players have been drafted across the whole draft board in the NFL, the reality of the success-rate of later round RB picks is quite different than the conventional wisdom might suggest.

 

I decided to aggregate the stats of all running backs drafted in the last 6 years and see what the impartial stats show. Here's what my little research project yielded about RB picks in the NFL draft:

 

ZwpfqL3.png

 

- There are 129 running backs drafted in the last 6 drafts of the NFL draft, or on average 21.5 RBs drafted per year.

- Only 7 RBs in the last 6 years have been drafted in the first round. Only 40 of the 129 are drafted in the first 3 rounds.

- There are 26 1000+ yard seasons recorded by the players drafted in the last 6 years. 16 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 6 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- There are 20 pro-bowl appearances by RBs drafted in the last 6 years. 12 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 5 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- Higher drafted players record better statistics across the board(yards per season, yards per game, yards in best season, TDs per season, TDs in best season,

- Second and third round RBs seem very similar in their production.

- Although there is gradual decline from round to round, there is a SIGNIFICANT FALL OFF THE CLIFF in round 7. You better not rely on getting much of anything in round 7 when it comes to RBs.

- The sixth round slight spike is almost entirely thanks to Alfred Morris' contribution. 

 

Disclaimer! Don't take this as a gospel. This is a very cursory examination that shows some trends, but there are things that might be influencing the results - for examples, maybe coaches are more willing to give carte blanche to higher picks in order to justify those picks and they might be getting some additional stats this way. I have also not included receiving yards and receiving TDs, but my assumption is that they will probably follow similar trend to the one discussed here.

 

Even though this to me clearly indicates that you have a MUCH better chance to draft a franchise RB in the first 3 rounds, we need to know if similar trends with even more extreme discrepancy in quality from one round to the next exists for other positions - for example maybe the discrepancy for pass-rushers or linemen is much bigger than the one for RBs, I haven't done that research, so I can't say for sure.

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

The notion that you don't have to draft a RB high, because you can get a good one later in the draft is wide-spread in the football community. And while it is true that great players have been drafted across the whole draft board in the NFL, the reality of the success-rate of later round RB picks is quite different than the conventional wisdom might suggest.

 

I decided to aggregate the stats of all running backs drafted in the last 6 years and see what the impartial stats show. Here's what my little research project yielded about RB picks in the NFL draft:

 

ZwpfqL3.png

 

- There are 129 running backs drafted in the last 6 drafts of the NFL draft, or on average 21.5 RBs drafted per year.

- Only 7 RBs in the last 6 years have been drafted in the first round. Only 40 of the 129 are drafted in the first 3 rounds.

- There are 26 1000+ yard seasons recorded by the players drafted in the last 6 years. 16 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 6 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- There are 20 pro-bowl appearances by RBs drafted in the last 6 years. 12 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 5 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- Higher drafted players record better statistics across the board(yards per season, yards per game, yards in best season, TDs per season, TDs in best season,

- Second and third round RBs seem very similar in their production.

- Although there is gradual decline from round to round, there is a SIGNIFICANT FALL OFF THE CLIFF in round 7. You better not rely on getting much of anything in round 7 when it comes to RBs.

- The sixth round slight spike is almost entirely thanks to Alfred Morris' contribution. 

 

Disclaimer! Don't take this as a gospel. This is a very cursory examination that shows some trends, but there are things that might be influencing the results - for examples, maybe coaches are more willing to give carte blanche to higher picks in order to justify those picks and they might be getting some additional stats this way. I have also not included receiving yards and receiving TDs, but my assumption is that they will probably follow similar trend to the one discussed here.

 

Even though this to me clearly indicates that you have a MUCH better chance to draft a franchise RB in the first 3 rounds, we need to know if similar trends with even more extreme discrepancy in quality from one round to the next exists for other positions - for example maybe the discrepancy for pass-rushers or linemen is much bigger than the one for RBs, I haven't done that research, so I can't say for sure.

 

Heck of a post!       Appreciate all the hard work and time and energy it took to put this together.

 

That said.........      I'm on the side of defense in the first 3 rounds,  and offense in the 4th round.    Back to defense in round 5.     And I'd like a 2nd running back in the 6th round.

 

Not because I think the back in the 6th round will be a 6th round value.     I think there are so many good quality backs that there will be RB's who fall that far who have a higher grade than that.     So, I'd like another bite at that RB class apple.      If there's not one there we like,   I'll go back told defense again.

 

Thanks for this post.....     so you get my favorite post of the day emoji!       :colts:

 

Winner!     Winner!      Colts Chicken Dinner!!      :thmup:

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Pretty clear evidence about your chances of finding a stud RB. I see a dignificant drop off in probability of getting your guy after the first. 

 

Not that the anylsis is this simple, but if it were, we had it wrong all along.  Its not that no RB is ever worth a 1st round pick, they can be, but theres certainly no reason to take one in the second since your chances are better in the third haha.

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I've been trying to tell people...Sick of hearing this "we can get a good rb in later rounds  b.s."...Bottom line it's not that easy to find an elite RB there are 1-2elite RBs ,or NONE every year..Then a bunch of decent to ordinary  guys or specialty backs...If you can get a franchise back you take him..I think teams are starting to catch on..If you combine an elite back with an great QB its a deadly combo...THIS year there are 2 for sure, possibly 4...We got to get 1 rounds 1 or 2...

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4 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

I've been trying to tell people...Sick of hearing this "we can get a good rb in later rounds  b.s."...Bottom line it's not that easy to find an elite RB there are 1-2elite RBs ,or NONE every year..Then a bunch of decent to ordinary  guys or specialty backs...If you can get a franchise back you take him..I think teams are starting to catch on..If you combine an elite back with an great QB its a deadly combo...THIS year there are 2 for sure, possibly 4...We got to get 1 rounds 1 or 2...

Nobody's saying it's easy to get an elite rb in later rounds, just a good chance at getting a decent one(like you even just said in your post). We have Gore and Turbin and can use a mid rounder on a RB also.

If our Defense wasn't historically bad, I might be okay with drafting cook/fournette at #15 , but it is. All early picks go to defense this year.

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3 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

I've been trying to tell people...Sick of hearing this "we can get a good rb in later rounds  b.s."...Bottom line it's not that easy to find an elite RB there are 1-2elite RBs ,or NONE every year..Then a bunch of decent to ordinary  guys or specialty backs...If you can get a franchise back you take him..I think teams are starting to catch on..If you combine an elite back with an great QB its a deadly combo...THIS year there are 2 for sure, possibly 4...We got to get 1 rounds 1 or 2...

An elite OL can make a decent back give you a good enough run threat to keep defenses honest and take some pressure off the passing game.  An elite back is great, but they're usually not that useful with a bad OL and they don't last that long, so you don't get as much of a return on your investment.  Ray Rice (2nd round pick) was drafted in 2008 and started slowing down dramatically in 2013, before the domestic violence stuff.  Maurice Jones-Drew (2nd round pick) was drafted in 2006 and his last good year was 2011.  I don't think it's a good idea to invest a first or second round pick in a running back.

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28 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Pretty clear evidence about your chances of finding a stud RB. I see a dignificant drop off in probability of getting your guy after the first. 

 

Not that the anylsis is this simple, but if it were, we had it wrong all along.  Its not that no RB is ever worth a 1st round pick, they can be, but theres certainly no reason to take one in the second since your chances are better in the third haha.

 

To me, it is also an indication of a team getting its first rounder into the line up as soon as they can since an RB position is an easy enough position to transition to the NFL. Colts waited till mid season to get Addai into the line up, he ended up starting mid season. I am certainly warming up to the possibility of an RB in round 2. However, given the dearth of talent on D, we could choose not to in round 1.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

To me, it is also an indication of a team getting its first rounder into the line up as soon as they can since an RB position is an easy enough position to transition to the NFL. Colts waited till mid season to get Addai into the line up, he ended up starting mid season. I am certainly warming up to the possibility of an RB in round 2.

Yeah, but thats 1 year out of the 5 accounted for. Its true though that 2nd round and laters get in slower. Its a fun analysis, but at the end of the day, the truest rule is, the higher you take them, the better your chances.

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16 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

To me, it is also an indication of a team getting its first rounder into the line up as soon as they can since an RB position is an easy enough position to transition to the NFL. Colts waited till mid season to get Addai into the line up, he ended up starting mid season. I am certainly warming up to the possibility of an RB in round 2. However, given the dearth of talent on D, we could choose not to in round 1.

You wouldn't rather get one of the talented CB prospects?(just using cb as an example because it's so deep and we need a #2 or maybe #1)

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There is no guarantee any of the defensive players will be great..Some look pretty promising, but every year there are some that look great and end up not doing nothing...RB early is a safer bet and guaranteed impact MOST of the time...Bottom line we need a rb, we haven't had one in 10 years...Look at what Bell and Elliott, Blunt do for their teams..Look what Marshawn Lynch did for Seattle...It's not a "luxury" pick at all...We need one that can consistently produce and be a threat..

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14 hours ago, stitches said:

The notion that you don't have to draft a RB high, because you can get a good one later in the draft is wide-spread in the football community. And while it is true that great players have been drafted across the whole draft board in the NFL, the reality of the success-rate of later round RB picks is quite different than the conventional wisdom might suggest.

 

I decided to aggregate the stats of all running backs drafted in the last 6 years and see what the impartial stats show. Here's what my little research project yielded about RB picks in the NFL draft:

 

ZwpfqL3.png

 

- There are 129 running backs drafted in the last 6 drafts of the NFL draft, or on average 21.5 RBs drafted per year.

- Only 7 RBs in the last 6 years have been drafted in the first round. Only 40 of the 129 are drafted in the first 3 rounds.

- There are 26 1000+ yard seasons recorded by the players drafted in the last 6 years. 16 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 6 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- There are 20 pro-bowl appearances by RBs drafted in the last 6 years. 12 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 5 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- Higher drafted players record better statistics across the board(yards per season, yards per game, yards in best season, TDs per season, TDs in best season,

- Second and third round RBs seem very similar in their production.

- Although there is gradual decline from round to round, there is a SIGNIFICANT FALL OFF THE CLIFF in round 7. You better not rely on getting much of anything in round 7 when it comes to RBs.

- The sixth round slight spike is almost entirely thanks to Alfred Morris' contribution. 

 

Disclaimer! Don't take this as a gospel. This is a very cursory examination that shows some trends, but there are things that might be influencing the results - for examples, maybe coaches are more willing to give carte blanche to higher picks in order to justify those picks and they might be getting some additional stats this way. I have also not included receiving yards and receiving TDs, but my assumption is that they will probably follow similar trend to the one discussed here.

 

Even though this to me clearly indicates that you have a MUCH better chance to draft a franchise RB in the first 3 rounds, we need to know if similar trends with even more extreme discrepancy in quality from one round to the next exists for other positions - for example maybe the discrepancy for pass-rushers or linemen is much bigger than the one for RBs, I haven't done that research, so I can't say for sure.

 

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Just now, MPStack said:

 

Great work and excellent thread. Something, I think people don`t take into account with the late round gems at RB also is the teams picking already have established starters, so its not like the scouts new this is our guy and he going to be the starter day one. 

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9 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

There is no guarantee any of the defensive players will be great..Some look pretty promising, but every year there are some that look great and end up not doing nothing...RB early is a safer bet and guaranteed impact MOST of the time...Bottom line we need a rb, we haven't had one in 10 years...Look at what Bell and Elliott, Blunt do for their teams..Look what Marshawn Lynch did for Seattle...It's not a "luxury" pick at all...We need one that can consistently produce and be a threat..

You just don't get it. None of those teams had a HORRIBLE defense for YEARS. That's the difference, it's a TEAM sport, just having a good offense won't do %.

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10 hours ago, 12to13 said:

Nobody's saying it's easy to get an elite rb in later rounds, just a good chance at getting a decent one(like you even just said in your post). We have Gore and Turbin and can use a mid rounder on a RB also.

If our Defense wasn't historically bad, I might be okay with drafting cook/fournette at #15 , but it is. All early picks go to defense this year.

I think you are going to be disappointed with the draft but happy when it comes to FA.

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27 minutes ago, Track Guy said:

I wouldn't go RB in the first I don't think, but I would probably be excited pick up one in either round 2 or 3 this year... Depending who it is and who else was available, anyways. 

You'd rather get a rb in round 2 then one of the great CB/lb prospects? I'm thinking rb in round 4, maaaybe 3.

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4 minutes ago, 12to13 said:

You'd rather get a rb in round 2 then one of the great CB/lb prospects? I'm thinking rb in round 4, maaaybe 3.


Depends on which RB vs which CB/LB are left. If Fournette, Cook, or Kamara are there in round 2 - it would be awful tempting. If not, we could still potentially land a guy like Wayne Gallman in the 3rd round. 

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2 minutes ago, Track Guy said:


Depends on which RB vs which CB/LB are left. If Fournette, Cook, or Kamara are there in round 2 - it would be awful tempting. If not, we could still potentially land a guy like Wayne Gallman in the 3rd round. 

Oh I think it's safe to say cook/fournette will definitely be gone in the 1st. I would take one in the 2nd forsure, I don't think that's possible though. It is a super deep draft for CBs though.

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I am more leaning towards the idea that if Grigs goes offense in the first round he'll select a top tier OL. Not that I want him to take offense, but if he does I feel it will be for OL.  QB did get sacked a lot of times this year along with a concussion.  From there you can feel more confident about picking up a back later because it's likely you will have solidified the line or very close to it.  Even closer than we sit right now.

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11 hours ago, 12to13 said:

You wouldn't rather get one of the talented CB prospects?(just using cb as an example because it's so deep and we need a #2 or maybe #1)

 

The low mileage RBs' sweet spot is around rounds 2 and 3 - LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Giovanni Bernard etc. and if the RB value is better than the CB value, then RB of course. If the CB value is greater, I won't complain with CB either. 

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16 hours ago, stitches said:

The notion that you don't have to draft a RB high, because you can get a good one later in the draft is wide-spread in the football community. And while it is true that great players have been drafted across the whole draft board in the NFL, the reality of the success-rate of later round RB picks is quite different than the conventional wisdom might suggest.

 

I decided to aggregate the stats of all running backs drafted in the last 6 years and see what the impartial stats show. Here's what my little research project yielded about RB picks in the NFL draft:

 

ZwpfqL3.png

 

- There are 129 running backs drafted in the last 6 drafts of the NFL draft, or on average 21.5 RBs drafted per year.

- Only 7 RBs in the last 6 years have been drafted in the first round. Only 40 of the 129 are drafted in the first 3 rounds.

- There are 26 1000+ yard seasons recorded by the players drafted in the last 6 years. 16 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 6 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- There are 20 pro-bowl appearances by RBs drafted in the last 6 years. 12 of them are recorded by players drafted in the first 3 rounds, 5 by the 7 players drafted in the first.

- Higher drafted players record better statistics across the board(yards per season, yards per game, yards in best season, TDs per season, TDs in best season,

- Second and third round RBs seem very similar in their production.

- Although there is gradual decline from round to round, there is a SIGNIFICANT FALL OFF THE CLIFF in round 7. You better not rely on getting much of anything in round 7 when it comes to RBs.

- The sixth round slight spike is almost entirely thanks to Alfred Morris' contribution. 

 

Disclaimer! Don't take this as a gospel. This is a very cursory examination that shows some trends, but there are things that might be influencing the results - for examples, maybe coaches are more willing to give carte blanche to higher picks in order to justify those picks and they might be getting some additional stats this way. I have also not included receiving yards and receiving TDs, but my assumption is that they will probably follow similar trend to the one discussed here.

 

Even though this to me clearly indicates that you have a MUCH better chance to draft a franchise RB in the first 3 rounds, we need to know if similar trends with even more extreme discrepancy in quality from one round to the next exists for other positions - for example maybe the discrepancy for pass-rushers or linemen is much bigger than the one for RBs, I haven't done that research, so I can't say for sure.

 

Great post and I agree 100%.

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11 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

I've been trying to tell people...Sick of hearing this "we can get a good rb in later rounds  b.s."...Bottom line it's not that easy to find an elite RB there are 1-2elite RBs ,or NONE every year..Then a bunch of decent to ordinary  guys or specialty backs...If you can get a franchise back you take him..I think teams are starting to catch on..If you combine an elite back with an great QB its a deadly combo...THIS year there are 2 for sure, possibly 4...We got to get 1 rounds 1 or 2...

Another good post.

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24 minutes ago, Track Guy said:


Depends on which RB vs which CB/LB are left. If Fournette, Cook, or Kamara are there in round 2 - it would be awful tempting. If not, we could still potentially land a guy like Wayne Gallman in the 3rd round. 

 

What do you think of Corey Clement of Wisconsin? He reminds me of Jordan Howard, in a way.

 

Melvin Gordon kinda bucked the trend of Wisconsin RBs in the NFL. Besides, 4 year RBs are becoming more rare and guys like Ron Dayne, Montee Ball were all 4 year starters, I think, nowadays a negative for RBs entering the draft. Addai did well with us because he was low mileage at LSU, that is why he lasted till the end of round 1. Corey Clement lost the 2015 season due to hernia surgery, so he has logged only 2 full years if I am right.

 

If Corey Clement is there in the 3rd, I would definitely take him because he can do a lot of things like Jordan Howard.

 

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3 minutes ago, krunk said:

I am more leaning towards the idea that if Grigs goes offense in the first round he'll select a top tier OL. Not that I want him to take offense, but if he does I feel it will be for OL.  QB did get sacked a lot of times this year along with a concussion.  From there you can feel more confident about picking up a back later because it's likely you will have solidified the line or very close to it.  Even closer than we sit right now.

I think thats possible too, but we've drafted Mewhort in the 2nd two years ago, Ryan Kelly with a 1st this year and also got Haeg and clark. That's a whole starting line up, excluding the 1st round pick Castanzo.

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5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The low mileage RBs' sweet spot is around rounds 2 and 3 - LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Giovanni Bernard etc. and if the RB value is better than the CB value, then RB of course. If the CB value is greater, I won't complain with CB either. 

Good point at the end and I agree. I just think with this particular draft, there will be a cb in the 2nd. Also depends on what we do in FA too though.

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1 minute ago, 12to13 said:

I think thats possible too, but we've drafted Mewhort in the 2nd two years ago, Ryan Kelly with a 1st this year and also got Haeg and clark. That's a whole starting line up, excluding the 1st round pick Castanzo.

Better to have a crowd than a shortage.  Plus Mewhort is coming back from injury.  You got Reitz leaving most likely.  Costanzo is up and down to the point sometimes he plays like a rookie.

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Just now, krunk said:

Better to have a crowd than a shortage.  Plus Mewhort is coming back from injury.  You got Reitz leaving most likely.  Costanzo is up and down to the point sometimes he plays like a rookie.

I've fallen in love with Garett Bolles from Utah. I have hard time justifying spending a first or second on O-lineman after last year's heavily O-line concentrated draft, but if we drafted Bolles I don't think I'd be mad.

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4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

What do you think of Corey Clement of Wisconsin? He reminds me of Jordan Howard, in a way.

 

Melvin Gordon kinda bucked the trend of Wisconsin RBs in the NFL. Besides, 4 year RBs are becoming more rare and guys like Ron Dayne, Montee Ball were all 4 year starters, I think, nowadays a negative for RBs entering the draft. Addai did well with us because he was low mileage at LSU, that is why he lasted till the end of round 1. Corey Clement lost the 2015 season due to hernia surgery, so he has logged only 2 full years if I am right.

 

If Corey Clement is there in the 3rd, I would definitely take him because he can do a lot of things like Jordan Howard.

 

Haven't seen too much of Clement, I think I saw him a bit when I was watching Ramczyk. I think he could be had in the 4th even, just because it's a very stacked class. 

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Just now, stitches said:

I've fallen in love with Garett Bolles from Utah. I have hard time justifying spending a first or second on O-lineman after last year's heavily O-line concentrated draft, but if we drafted Bolles I don't think I'd be mad.

I don't have a hard time anymore now that I've though more into it.  I think if a top tier guy is there I won't be too mad if we go that route.  Cam Robinson or one of the other guys people feel are in the top 5 linemen.

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1 minute ago, krunk said:

Better to have a crowd than a shortage.  Plus Mewhort is coming back from injury.  You got Reitz leaving most likely.  Costanzo is up and down to the point sometimes he plays like a rookie.

I see where you're coming from. But I really hope we have our starting o-line in the building already. They were trending upwards towards the end of the season I've read, can't say the  same about our D. You have a point though.

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2 minutes ago, krunk said:

I don't have a hard time anymore now that I've though more into it.  I think if a top tier guy is there I won't be too mad if we go that route.  Cam Robinson or one of the other guys people feel are in the top 5 linemen.

Agree. At the end of the day if we draft BPA, I'd be happy, no matter the position.

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Just now, stitches said:

I've fallen in love with Garett Bolles from Utah. I have hard time justifying spending a first or second on O-lineman after last year's heavily O-line concentrated draft, but if we drafted Bolles I don't think I'd be mad.

 

Garett Bolles is fun to watch. He's extremely aggressive, terrific demeanor. His age is the biggest knock on him. Generally it's not a strong OL class, but he's on a short list of interesting prospects. Check out Forrest Lamp - another good O-lineman who I'd be happy to get! My favorite OL prospect in the draft, in fact. 

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2 hours ago, 12to13 said:

You just don't get it. None of those teams had a HORRIBLE defense for YEARS. That's the difference, it's a TEAM sport, just having a good offense won't do %.

I do get it..We have the rest of draft and free agency to go all defense....Im fine going defense if the RB isn't there...Cook and Fournette could be gone in 1st and Foreman and McCafferey could be gone in 2nd so we could be forced to go rb by committee or ancient Gore again...A great running back helps the defense as much more than you think..

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3 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

I do get it..We have the rest of draft and free agency to go all defense....Im fine going defense if the RB isn't there...Cook and Fournette could be gone in 1st and Foreman and McCafferey could be gone in 2nd so we could be forced to go rb by committee or ancient Gore again...A great running back helps the defense as much more than you think..

But the best D player we can get will be in the 1st, we've never used a high resource on a defensive player.(I'm not even counting that bum Bjorn)

We can't just continue to build defense through FA. 

 

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Just now, Track Guy said:

 

Garett Bolles is fun to watch. He's extremely aggressive, terrific demeanor. His age is the biggest knock on him. Generally it's not a strong OL class, but he's on a short list of interesting prospects. Check out Forrest Lamp - another good O-lineman who I'd be happy to get! My favorite OL prospect in the draft, in fact. 

I love it how he pancakes opponents with regularity and drives them back 10-20 yards in the run game. He's like a bulldog, doesn't let go and finishes people out there.

 

 

 

 

 

Go to this guy's vine page, there are a ton of Garett Bolles killing people vines. I absolutely love him, and his pass protection is pretty damn good, too.

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22 minutes ago, stitches said:

I've fallen in love with Garett Bolles from Utah. I have hard time justifying spending a first or second on O-lineman after last year's heavily O-line concentrated draft, but if we drafted Bolles I don't think I'd be mad.

I'll check Boiles out.

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    • @2006Coltsbestever @NFLfan   Kirk has been treated much better and with much more respect than Wentz was treated in Indy. And was showed with Love and truckloads of money in Minnesota, and was defended constantly with much more ferocity by Vikings fans than people defending Ballard in Grievances thread.    it'd be crazy to think of injustice against Kirk for a few minority who criticize his play.    We're Going back and forth on Kirk debate which will go on for eternity, but I struck Gold when I saw recently @Superman explaining how he felt watching Wentz playing with other teams before he got to Indy and how it felt watching him play for Colts when you're emotionally invested with the franchise.    There's no other way to perfectly describe Kirk Cousins' career and his QB play.   For every fan around the NFL, especially for fantasy football fans, Kirk will be a hero and am above average QB. But, when you're emotionally invested in your favourite franchise and Kirk plays QB for your team, you would come close to understanding how excruciatingly frustrating his play and smartness and game awareness are (or shortage of them are), that all contributes to team missing playoffs many years and even when they qualify, no one sees Kirk as a threat in playoffs. Ever. Your team would be paying Elite QB Money for that, and you'd be constantly in debate with criticizers Vs defenders. Until he plays for your team, you won't realize that, and I totally understand.    Anyway, happy to pass on that frustration over to Falcons fans, they'd know soon. First of all, Kirk takes at least a season or two to trust his OL, even if you put an elite line and weapons around him, and it's all in his head. I'm going to sit back and read Falcons forums for Fun in 2024 Season! Good Times! 
    • I have no idea how it will all shake out, but I have my popcorn ready.
    • There are no owners in the NFL that are perfect people. Some owner's demons are more public, some not so much, but they all have them. There's much more to the free agency issue and the Colts than most are aware of. There are a lot of intangibles most will never consider. That said, there is more to almost every aspect of any organization that most will ever be aware of. Those are often the things that matter most.  
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