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Houston (+16) @ New England (1-13-17)


oldunclemark

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8:15 EST -  Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Jay Feely (why?)  and Tracy Woldson on CBS

Low 20s and dry.....over-under 44.5      

 

'Big Texas' Brock Osweiler' (301 of 510, 2,957 yards, 15 Tds, 16 INTs) faces a serious roadblock in his push for his second consecutive world championship 

....with WR DeAndre Hopkins (78 cataches, 954 yards) and RB Lamaar Miller (268 carries, 1,073 yards)

Notre Dame rookie Will Fuller (47 catches, 635 yards) is a key man on punt returns but the Texans face a Patriot defense that has allwoed the fewest points in the NFL

 

NE star 'Shady' Tom Brady (291 if 432 yards)  threw 28 TDs passes in 12 games including seven to TE Martellus Bennett (55 catches/701 yards).

   Julian Edelman caught 98 passes for 1,106 yards as a possession receiver but NE also got 1,161 yards and an NFL leading 18 rushing TDs from LaGarrette Blount.

The key to this game is whether Houston's top-ranked defense can sack Tom Brady, who was taken down just 15 times all year.

 

Both teams are without a superstar....NE tight end Rob Gronkowksi and Houston DT JJ Watt will both watch from the sidleines

Top-seeded New England is almost totaly heathy..the O-line has been intact most of the season. Hosuton is 8-1 at home and 2-6 on the road.

 

Nobody is 16 points better than anybody else in the NFL playoffs..but the Oddmakers want you to bet on Brock  

..and your hand should be shaking if you lay that money down.

The over-under is unpredictable but, again, ...but I'll take anybody in the NFL playoffs if you give me 16 points

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   The problem with taking NE is that they Houston isn't going to pull their 1st string defense if the game is out of hand.....and ...NE will pull their offensive starters...

 

.....Houston has held 10 teams to 21 points or less....nobody's scored more than 31 on them all year

With that said...the high spread is probably trying to lure people to bet on Houston

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1 hour ago, oldunclemark said:

   The problem with taking NE is that they Houston isn't going to pull their 1st string defense if the game is out of hand.....and ...NE will pull their offensive starters...

 

.....Houston has held 10 teams to 21 points or less....nobody's scored more than 31 on them all year

With that said...the high spread is probably trying to lure people to bet on Houston

Agree. Like they say you don't play football on paper.

It's not at all inconceivable Houston scores 23 while holding NE to 20.

 

What NE did week 3 counts for zero.

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2 hours ago, oldunclemark said:

   The problem with taking NE is that they Houston isn't going to pull their 1st string defense if the game is out of hand.....and ...NE will pull their offensive starters...

 

.....Houston has held 10 teams to 21 points or less....nobody's scored more than 31 on them all year

With that said...the high spread is probably trying to lure people to bet on Houston

When was the last time the pats pulled starters?

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There are a lot of Patriots connections on the Texans...I wouldn't expect Bill to intentionally try to embarrass them. It's the playoffs, so they will still try to put the game away as early as possible...but don't expect them to have the starters out there winging it around if they have a 17 point lead halfway through the 4th. They will just try to run clock.

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2 hours ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

Can we just hope for a good game? I don't see just a defensive team beating the Patriots. I feel like more of an offensive team has a better shot.

 

Actually, it is the opposite. How many playoff games has Brady lost scoring 24 or more? Only 1, that would be vs Peyton Manning. Outscoring Brady has never been the way to beat him. The Patriots always find a way to score more. 

 

In his 9 losses, Brady scored 13, 34, 14, 14, 21, 17, 13, 16, 18 points. Odds are extremely great to beat Brady if you limit him to 21 or less, 8 out of his 9 losses have come that way. So, a defensive team has a better chance to beat him than an offensive team. Peyton played the game of his life to beat him 38-34. In fact Patriots under Belichick and Brady have only lost 2 games where they scored 30+ - both to Peyton, the 34-38 loss in the 2006 season AFCCG and the 34-35 loss in the 4th and 2 game. That is why they respect Peyton out there, though they don't like him in Patriots land. :) 

 

 

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^ I understand what you're saying^

 

I'm just worried teams with great defenses but suspect offences can't win and the defense just gets shredded. Remember our road to super bowl against the Saints. We started against the great defense in Baltimore, then Jets good defensive squad. Then when it came to the Saints we couldn't stop them.. That's how I feel New England is. Texans have the number 1 defense, but watch, come Saturday they'll get paper cut up and down the field with the dink and dunk passes..

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43 minutes ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

^ I understand what you're saying^

 

I'm just worried teams with great defenses but suspect offences can't win and the defense just gets shredded. Remember our road to super bowl against the Saints. We started against the great defense in Baltimore, then Jets good defensive squad. Then when it came to the Saints we couldn't stop them.. That's how I feel New England is. Texans have the number 1 defense, but watch, come Saturday they'll get paper cut up and down the field with the dink and dunk passes..

 

I am not saying the Texans are the kind to beat the Patriots, obviously no way as I have said several times before.

 

I am just saying that outscoring Brady and the Patriots has not been a probable recipe for wins against them in the playoffs, limiting Brady has.

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16 points seems like a lot to me, 14 points would sound better, maybe throw in a kicker either way at 13.5 or 14.5 to make things interesting.

 

Yes, the Pats did beat the Texans 27-0 but we got two turnovers on kickoffs, which i have never seen before in the same game, so the repeatability of that game can be tough.  Surely we have had success against the Texans, but we still must play in this game, we cough up a fur ball and have a few picks or fumbles, then the playing field is leveled.  We still need to play a clean game, maybe one mistake can be overcome. 

 

If the Pats bring a B or higher game it is going to be tough for the Texans to beat the Pats.  Time will tell.  We will see on Saturday night.   

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1 hour ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

^ I understand what you're saying^

 

I'm just worried teams with great defenses but suspect offences can't win and the defense just gets shredded. Remember our road to super bowl against the Saints. We started against the great defense in Baltimore, then Jets good defensive squad. Then when it came to the Saints we couldn't stop them.. That's how I feel New England is. Texans have the number 1 defense, but watch, come Saturday they'll get paper cut up and down the field with the dink and dunk passes..

 

Yes a great defense really still needs a solid offense, this is really true regardless who one plays.   Many times when the Pats play a great defense but a average to below average offense, I am not as worried as some about the strong opponent's defense, even when our defense was not great.  

 

For me, it kind of comes down to the point can our offense score more points against their defense as their offense scores on our defense.  Surely we may score less than our season average but if the opponent can not out pace out then we have a chance.

 

With the above said, a few key turnovers and a great game by Brock O. should make this game a game into the 4th qtr.   

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Actually, it is the opposite. How many playoff games has Brady lost scoring 24 or more? Only 1, that would be vs Peyton Manning. Outscoring Brady has never been the way to beat him. The Patriots always find a way to score more. 

 

In his 9 losses, Brady scored 13, 34, 14, 14, 21, 17, 13, 16, 18 points. Odds are extremely great to beat Brady if you limit him to 21 or less, 8 out of his 9 losses have come that way. So, a defensive team has a better chance to beat him than an offensive team. Peyton played the game of his life to beat him 38-34. In fact Patriots under Belichick and Brady have only lost 2 games where they scored 30+ - both to Peyton, the 34-38 loss in the 2006 season AFCCG and the 34-35 loss in the 4th and 2 game. That is why they respect Peyton out there, though they don't like him in Patriots land. :) 

 

 

 

Yes limiting the Pats O under 18 or so points is a recipe to beating the Pats, coupling that with a solid game on offense and one can beat the Pats in either the playoffs or regular season. 

 

Yes, Peyton has had some great games against us in New England and we Pats fan respect his play on the field even though he has gotten in the way a few times in the playoffs.  :(.  The '06 AFCCG still hurts, great game and memories for you guys.  :).  And there were more than one game where Colts/Broncos score a lot of points against us pushing us to the limit.

 

And Peyton and company have two of our shoot out losses, we have lost a few others, the game against Baltimore with the FG over the upright game/replacement refs and BB touching the refs arm to ask him a question and then a game against SF & Kap. where we were down by 28 and Brady brought them back to tie it at 31-31 only to see ST give up a big return and we lost the game.  Peyton does though have two great shootout wins, the only one with two, against the pats with one being the '06 AFCCG :(.   We can breath a little easier now in NE with Peyton retired. 

 

And agreed we are in trouble in today's NFL if the pats are limited to 18 points or less in a playoff game.

 

Hopefully, we will get a win on Saturday.    

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7 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

When was the last time the pats pulled starters?

Probably against the Colts..

.....but Blount didn't practice 2 days this week and they wont risk Brady in a game where they're up 21.

..and when they pull the main men.

Houston scores a late TD.,..and there's the 'back door cover' 

 

I wouldn't give 16 points in a playoff game..unless the bet was a sand wich

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15 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

Probably against the Colts..

.....but Blount didn't practice 2 days this week and they wont risk Brady in a game where they're up 21.

..and when they pull the main men.

Houston scores a late TD.,..and there's the 'back door cover' 

 

I wouldn't give 16 points in a playoff game..unless the bet was a sand wich

Belichick doesn't pull starters.   They play to the end unless they are up 40

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2 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

        I like 'overs' this week..the numbers are high in the NFC but indoor games with good QBs...

......cant see low-scoring games

Yeah,  the packers cowboys game will be a lot of scoring I think.   Hard to tell about the falcons Seahawks

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I love the Divisional Round because you still have 2 games on each day and it's now the best of the best basically. Really anything can happen now, 3 of the 4 games being played are really to tough to predict. Even in the Patriots game you have to watch for injuries, what if the Pats win but Brady gets injured or Edleman gets injured? I don't wish that on them or anyone but anything can happen. Houston does have a Great Defense and they do get to the QB.

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3 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

Yeah,  the packers cowboys game will be a lot of scoring I think.   Hard to tell about the falcons Seahawks

 

Yeah the Falcons/Seahawks could go either way.  I could actually see it being a high powered offensive game, or a defensive slugfest but it should most likely end up being somewhere in the middle????  Lol

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Oh I am so rooting for Houston. You kidding me? Why not. This is a team who is like a zillion point underdog, I love this stuff!!!!!!! And they are going go the golden ones palace and nobody is giving them a chance.

 

Lets go Houston. Score on them!!!!!!

 

A gif to get the spirits going now.

 

giphy.gif

 

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58 minutes ago, Jules said:

Oh I am so rooting for Houston. You kidding me? Why not. This is a team who is like a zillion point underdog, I love this stuff!!!!!!! And they are going go the golden ones palace and nobody is giving them a chance.

 

Lets go Houston. Score on them!!!!!!

 

A gif to get the spirits going now.

 

giphy.gif

 

Big Vince with the Home Run!!

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1 hour ago, Jules said:

Oh I am so rooting for Houston. You kidding me? Why not. This is a team who is like a zillion point underdog, I love this stuff!!!!!!! And they are going go the golden ones palace and nobody is giving them a chance.

 

Lets go Houston. Score on them!!!!!!

 

A gif to get the spirits going now.

 

giphy.gif

 

I can't stop looking at that picture. It's like a lava lamp collided with a snow globe in slow motion. Too much information? Yeah, I know, but it's the first thing that popped into my head. 

 

I know I rooted for Brock last week, but I'm not stupid, their playoff runs ends this weekend. Unless Brady gets a bout of food poisoning tomorrow, this game is over by halftime. 

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On January 11, 2017 at 7:32 PM, oldunclemark said:

Big Texas' Brock Osweiler' (301 of 510, 2,957 yards, 15 Tds, 16 INTs) faces a serious roadblock in his push for his second consecutive world championship 

'Serious roadblock' is too kind OUM. No, it's more like trying to reach the Summit, or top, of Mount Everest without any oxygen. Translation: Houston is toast & there isn't a snowballs chance in hades that the Texans pull this off.

 

Now watch, just because I proclaimed that the Texans will win by a field goal. haha 

 

If they do, I will take my lumps & congratulate Houston fans. Not gonna happen though. I know; I know stop digging my hole deeper & deeper should Belichick & Brady lose. 

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On January 12, 2017 at 7:00 PM, jvan1973 said:

Hard to tell about the falcons Seahawks

I know I can't get a read on that game either. I am pulling for Matt Ryan & Julio Jones to light it up, but anytime I expect Atlanta to deliver they fall apart once expectations rise. 

 

If Earl Thomas was playing, the Seahawks would beat the Falcons with ease. Step up Mr. Ice. Your time is now. Time to show analysts & fans that you are worthy of tier 1 not tier 2 quarterbacks. 

 

Yeah, it sounds like I'm trying to convince myself with no real conviction. Guilty as charged. Will Matthew win? I doubt it. 

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On January 12, 2017 at 10:08 AM, -JJ- said:

It's not at all inconceivable Houston scores 23 while holding NE to 20.

 

What NE did week 3 counts for zero.

Whoa. Logic & a reasonable answer from a NE fan. Just kidding JJ! 

 

Yeah, the football Gods always make kickoff interesting & we've all seen better teams have a bad day at the office & go home. Experience has taught me never to underestimate deflate boy & Emperor Palpatine though. Just messin' with ya. 

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14 hours ago, southwest1 said:

Whoa. Logic & a reasonable answer from a NE fan. Just kidding JJ! 

 

Yeah, the football Gods always make kickoff interesting & we've all seen better teams have a bad day at the office & go home. Experience has taught me never to underestimate deflate boy & Emperor Palpatine though. Just messin' with ya. 

Or that run from scrimmage for a TD opening drive by Ray Rice and ensuing sun in Brady's eyes the following series for an INT/TD in that Ravens playoff game.  Down 14 before you could blink :)

 

 

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