Superman

Why I'm beefing with the Colts passing offense

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These posts comprised the best Colts offensive analysis I've seen in the past two years.

 

Many, many thanks Superman.  Thank you for taking the time to share that write-up.  Colts need you as an analyst man.  For real.  You would think they'd have someone on staff that does this kind of self-scouting (looking for tendencies, etc.).

 

Anyway, great stuff, as usual. :rock:

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I fully agree with the conclusions of your analysis. It's easy to blame the receivers for not getting open but oftentimes the concept just isn't right. That's why I don't understand how Luck is not given a bunch of plays to call the best one at the LOS? He always seems to give a lot of effort to execute the play just as called from the booth but he doesn't really seem to have the freedom to check out of play calls if the defense would require a different one.

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1 hour ago, zibby43 said:

These posts comprised the best Colts offensive analysis I've seen in the past two years.

 

Many, many thanks Superman.  Thank you for taking the time to share that write-up.  Colts need you as an analyst man.  For real.  You would think they'd have someone on staff that does this kind of self-scouting (looking for tendencies, etc.).

 

Anyway, great stuff, as usual. :rock:

Superman for OC?! 

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Love supes analysis I've been saying for a while when we get blitzed there are barely if not ever any hot routes they continued to send receivers deep

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7 hours ago, Superman said:

#2: Same drive, 3rd and 2. Another 3WR set, now the Raiders are in dime. You'll see Hilton come across the formation in motion to join a bunch formation on the left side. 

 

20gmemd.jpg

30mlbg3.jpg

 

The Raiders went dime presumably to cover wide, but now they have 7 defenders in the box and 2 more inside the numbers, less than 10 yards off the line. They are now susceptible on the outside, and they basically scatter when the ball is snapped. This is a great way to stress a defense, especially horizontally in short yardage, because the last thing they want is to get beat deep. The DBs at the bottom of the screen are backed off to give their defense depth, but they are essentially going to surrender the middle of the field. The weakside LB is going to cover the back in the flat, but everyone else in the middle drops into a zone.

 

20hsznm.jpg

 

This is the Promised Land. The middle of the field is W I D E open. Dorsett is running a quick hitter underneath, and Luck has a throwing lane right up the alley to put the ball on Dorsett, with room to run and only the safety to stop him. This play is probably a 10 yard gain before Dorsett is even touched.

 

Luck never looked at him, and my heart broke. I was at this game, sitting behind this end zone, watching Dorsett come open across the middle. This is the concept I've been asking for all year (more like since 2012). And we blew it. 

 

j677fn.jpg

 

Luck gets stuck on Hilton, who also comes open. Luck fires, but Hilton stumbles coming out of his break, and the pass is incomplete. This is not a bad decision by Luck, but it's clearly the WRONG decision, and it wiped out a great opportunity to get another score. This, again, is before Carr went down. This game could have been within two scores before the Raiders even got the ball back, but we couldn't even get this drive started due to two missed opportunities.

 

I give Chud credit for this play call. It's perfect on 3rd and 2, and the Raiders wanted no part of trying to cover the middle on this play. Luck missed it, and this falls directly on him. 

I remember this play.  Saw Dorsett wide open.  But forced to TY.  One reason I am not giving up on Dorsett.  He gets open a lot but doesn't get the ball.   And yes he dropped a lot this yr.  but he really does have good hands 

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In these situations, I blame Luck more than Chud, but I see the conceptual problems too. 

 

I say that the OC in the box does not know how the D will line up.  The Vikings illustration tells me that the play was called in the booth, right into the teeth of the defense....but obviously Chud doesn't know where the teeth of the defense is going to be when he sends the play in.  Its up to the QB to identify the poor routes and adjust the play.  Perhaps the entire route tree combination is flawed in that they do not complement each other, and that is a concept problem that probably needs to be modernized, but I would assume there is a better play in the playbook to call in that situation than the one that was run, and the QB should be able to do that.

 

In the first Raiders example, the lack of the smoke route on the first play could also be the result of the OC in the box not knowing how the defense is going to play.  When they D showed its intentions on the first play, the proper play was indeed called for second down and the 8 yard gain was accomplished.

 

 

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Yup this has pretty much been my same complaint since pep. Whether it be the oc or luck were always pushing the ball vertical. I hate it when I'm watching a game either live or on t.v and I see the defense and think we should run a slant or a short route that would be wide open and then it turns out to be a deep incompletion. I had really hoped chud was going to help this out but he has not.

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11 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

I remember this play.  Saw Dorsett wide open.  But forced to TY.  One reason I am not giving up on Dorsett.  He gets open a lot but doesn't get the ball.   And yes he dropped a lot this yr.  but he really does have good hands 

And Luck used to lock in on Reggie a lot when Reggie was here.

 

Perhaps Luck is not progressing as he should, or perhaps with the poor pass protection he has received over the years he has gotten used to feeling like he doesn't have enough time to scan the field, and must lock on right away.

 

Of course, if the route trees are all long developing, that contributes to his problem because he probably has not had much opportunity to look for second and third reads as the patterns take long to develop.

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8 hours ago, Superman said:

I have three situations that illustrate my problems with the Colts passing offense. Pardon my rudimentary screenshots and whatnot, and pardon the lack of All 22 in these shots. You'll still get the point, though.

 

#1: Raiders, 4th quarter. Derek Carr is still in the game, he goes out on the next possession. They just punted, giving the Colts the ball on their own 4 yard line. There's just over 13 minutes left in the game. On first down, the Raiders come out in nickel against the Colts 3WR set, and as you can see, they play off on the right side. The corner is 8 yards off the line of scrimmage, and the defense is heavy in the middle of the field.

 

2rmwisl.jpg

 

The QB has to have the freedom and the presence to sight adjust that receiver to what they call a "smoke" route. Just stand there and take the quick completion, should be good for at least 4 yards, and if you make the corner miss, it's a huge gain, maybe 6 points. If the defense was playing up on the line or gave a single high look, you might adjust to a slant and give the receiver a chance to beat his man, but here, on 1st and 10, you take the easy completion and the short pickup, and get ready for 2nd and manageable. 

 

28rmdl3.jpg 

 

The Colts don't throw the quick smoke, they don't run a slant (which would have worked since the Raiders played Man 1 and doubled the receiver at the top), and they don't get a completion. Luck stays on the 2 receiver combo on the left side, no one gets open, Luck gets pressured and throws a dangerous pass across the middle that either could have been picked or been called for grounding. This is bad offense, and that play probably cost the team a nice drive starter. 

 

Second down, they get a similar look -- even softer, but same principle -- and throw the smoke to the left side, Robert Turbin is out wide and takes it for 8 yards. 

 

t9ecrm.jpg

 

I don't care who you blame for this, coaching, the QB, whoever, but a good, efficient offense makes that easy play on first down, and it forces the defense to stay close to your receivers at the snap. The Colts get beat on these easy hitch throws all the time. 

I can see your point on the smoke route in the first 2 cut up, but to me even if you don't take the smoke route there are still 2 options available.  Nobody is covering Luck on this play.  There's room there to take an easy five or 6 yard run.  Also the receiver at the top has enough room to break that route towards the sideline for a completion.  He's already beyond the sticks,  I was going to say a comeback route but that's got potential for a pick.   The easiest thing to do is probably the smoke route or either Luck just running the football outright for a quick 5 to 6 yard pick up.

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The defense lines up after the offense lines up (for obvious reasons)  so that's on Luck to audible to a smoke route or slant route on those off coverage situations.  It would seem that he's not really allowed to audible or adjust plays much?  I doubt that he can't, but for whatever reason he rarely does it. 

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8 hours ago, Superman said:

#2: Same drive, 3rd and 2. Another 3WR set, now the Raiders are in dime. You'll see Hilton come across the formation in motion to join a bunch formation on the left side. 

 

20gmemd.jpg

30mlbg3.jpg

 

The Raiders went dime presumably to cover wide, but now they have 7 defenders in the box and 2 more inside the numbers, less than 10 yards off the line. They are now susceptible on the outside, and they basically scatter when the ball is snapped. This is a great way to stress a defense, especially horizontally in short yardage, because the last thing they want is to get beat deep. The DBs at the bottom of the screen are backed off to give their defense depth, but they are essentially going to surrender the middle of the field. The weakside LB is going to cover the back in the flat, but everyone else in the middle drops into a zone.

 

20hsznm.jpg

 

This is the Promised Land. The middle of the field is W I D E open. Dorsett is running a quick hitter underneath, and Luck has a throwing lane right up the alley to put the ball on Dorsett, with room to run and only the safety to stop him. This play is probably a 10 yard gain before Dorsett is even touched.

 

Luck never looked at him, and my heart broke. I was at this game, sitting behind this end zone, watching Dorsett come open across the middle. This is the concept I've been asking for all year (more like since 2012). And we blew it. 

 

j677fn.jpg

 

Luck gets stuck on Hilton, who also comes open. Luck fires, but Hilton stumbles coming out of his break, and the pass is incomplete. This is not a bad decision by Luck, but it's clearly the WRONG decision, and it wiped out a great opportunity to get another score. This, again, is before Carr went down. This game could have been within two scores before the Raiders even got the ball back, but we couldn't even get this drive started due to two missed opportunities.

 

I give Chud credit for this play call. It's perfect on 3rd and 2, and the Raiders wanted no part of trying to cover the middle on this play. Luck missed it, and this falls directly on him. 

Dorsett should have gotten the football almost certainly.   However TY was open as well, he just happened to fall down. If he doesn't fall then that's likely a completion.  Doesn't look to me that anyone is on either one of them.   Maybe Luck isn't trusting Dorsett to pick that one up possibly.  

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8 hours ago, Superman said:

#2: Same drive, 3rd and 2. Another 3WR set, now the Raiders are in dime. You'll see Hilton come across the formation in motion to join a bunch formation on the left side. 

 

20gmemd.jpg

30mlbg3.jpg

 

The Raiders went dime presumably to cover wide, but now they have 7 defenders in the box and 2 more inside the numbers, less than 10 yards off the line. They are now susceptible on the outside, and they basically scatter when the ball is snapped. This is a great way to stress a defense, especially horizontally in short yardage, because the last thing they want is to get beat deep. The DBs at the bottom of the screen are backed off to give their defense depth, but they are essentially going to surrender the middle of the field. The weakside LB is going to cover the back in the flat, but everyone else in the middle drops into a zone.

 

20hsznm.jpg

 

This is the Promised Land. The middle of the field is W I D E open. Dorsett is running a quick hitter underneath, and Luck has a throwing lane right up the alley to put the ball on Dorsett, with room to run and only the safety to stop him. This play is probably a 10 yard gain before Dorsett is even touched.

 

Luck never looked at him, and my heart broke. I was at this game, sitting behind this end zone, watching Dorsett come open across the middle. This is the concept I've been asking for all year (more like since 2012). And we blew it. 

 

j677fn.jpg

 

Luck gets stuck on Hilton, who also comes open. Luck fires, but Hilton stumbles coming out of his break, and the pass is incomplete. This is not a bad decision by Luck, but it's clearly the WRONG decision, and it wiped out a great opportunity to get another score. This, again, is before Carr went down. This game could have been within two scores before the Raiders even got the ball back, but we couldn't even get this drive started due to two missed opportunities.

 

I give Chud credit for this play call. It's perfect on 3rd and 2, and the Raiders wanted no part of trying to cover the middle on this play. Luck missed it, and this falls directly on him. 

There's also room for him to run as a last option, although it's way more intelligent on this play to just toss it to Dorsett or Hilton.   Seems on many occasions the Raiders did not cover Luck.  For a lot of this season to me he seemed hesitant to tuck it and run for the first down.  Plenty of first downs he could have picked up in the Texans game if he had just tucked it and ran instead of tossing the pick into coverage.  I'd like to see that element of his game come back.  Just needs to avoid the huge collisions by sliding and what not.

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8 hours ago, Superman said:

#3: Vikings game, the game where the offense was great and we dominated wire to wire and everything is awesome and "why can't we play like this every week," right? Yeah, actually, the Vikings played awful defense; not as awful as the Jets, but awful nonetheless. I don't mean to take credit away from the offense, but they were disjointed at times, missed chances, etc. Of course, they did a lot to protect the rookie RT in his first start, but there are still flaws in their concepts. This is early in the game. first drive, so it's possible they were still trying to feel out the Vikings defense, but I hate this play.

 

124h2cn.jpg

 

Third and 10. Bottom of the screen, two receivers, one in the slot, one out wide. Both DBs are playing off, but there's a nickel lined up at the edge. They also have 7 defenders on the line of scrimmage, showing a blitz look. You don't run a smoke route because it's third and long, and there's depth to the defense. The DB at the top is slightly shaded to the inside, so you probably won't get a clean release on a slant. Here's what Tom Moore would call, more or less:

 

314t0so.jpg

 

This is the old Indy concept, Levels. Double ins, with a vertical route on the other side. Moore would probably have the TE on the left side of the formation running a skinny post, but the primary read are the in breaking routes. The idea is the corner would release to the inside defenders and drop back, the nickel would drop back to the middle over the short in, but you're reading the safety to see if he also breaks on the short route. If so, the deep in from the slot receiver is open. If not, you have a dumpoff to the back. 

 

Here's what Chud called:

n2gz01.jpg

 

He ran the two receiver right into the deep coverage, they never broke across the middle before they crossed the marker, so why is Luck looking that way at the snap??? Is that the first read, really? No hot? The nickel actually blitzed and the ILB dropped, which is a good scheme, but it plays into the Levels concept because the ILB is more likely to play a short in, and with him being further to the inside the safety is more likely to crash down to cover it, leaving the deep in open. Instead, we ran "Get Open" with a 7 man protection.

 

4j1c2u.jpg

 

This the result. Where are the receivers??? Oh, there's Hilton up at the top corner, just barely visible, with hardly any room after his break to fit in a throw before he gets to the sideline. No one else across the middle? 

 

Luck winds up scrambling for an 8 yard gain, but understand that he's actually 18 yards away from the marker by the time the pressure forces him to leave the pocket, and he's not beating that linebacker. He slides 2 yards short, and we kick a FG. 

 

This is a scheme issue. There's no reason to run your receivers directly into off coverage on 3rd and long. There's no reason to have double deep reads on the same side of the field, especially when there's a blitz look on. There's no hot receiver, and even with a 7 man protection against a 5 man rush, Luck leaves the pocket because no one is going to come open on this play. 

 

Get what you're saying overall but to me it looks like there's enough room for him to fit that throw to Hilton in there.  Picture does not show who's behind Hilton or how close.  I see your question mark in the middle of the field although a throw there is probably short of the sticks.  But I get the logic of a possible run after the catch possibility and stressing the other levels of the defense.   I think there's enough room for him to throw to Hilton there though.  You can point to the scheme there and your point it's not illogical, but I think Luck needs to make that throw.

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9 hours ago, Superman said:

#3: Vikings game, the game where the offense was great and we dominated wire to wire and everything is awesome and "why can't we play like this every week," right? Yeah, actually, the Vikings played awful defense; not as awful as the Jets, but awful nonetheless. I don't mean to take credit away from the offense, but they were disjointed at times, missed chances, etc. Of course, they did a lot to protect the rookie RT in his first start, but there are still flaws in their concepts. This is early in the game. first drive, so it's possible they were still trying to feel out the Vikings defense, but I hate this play.

 

124h2cn.jpg

 

Third and 10. Bottom of the screen, two receivers, one in the slot, one out wide. Both DBs are playing off, but there's a nickel lined up at the edge. They also have 7 defenders on the line of scrimmage, showing a blitz look. You don't run a smoke route because it's third and long, and there's depth to the defense. The DB at the top is slightly shaded to the inside, so you probably won't get a clean release on a slant. Here's what Tom Moore would call, more or less:

 

314t0so.jpg

 

This is the old Indy concept, Levels. Double ins, with a vertical route on the other side. Moore would probably have the TE on the left side of the formation running a skinny post, but the primary read are the in breaking routes. The idea is the corner would release to the inside defenders and drop back, the nickel would drop back to the middle over the short in, but you're reading the safety to see if he also breaks on the short route. If so, the deep in from the slot receiver is open. If not, you have a dumpoff to the back. 

 

Here's what Chud called:

n2gz01.jpg

 

He ran the two receiver right into the deep coverage, they never broke across the middle before they crossed the marker, so why is Luck looking that way at the snap??? Is that the first read, really? No hot? The nickel actually blitzed and the ILB dropped, which is a good scheme, but it plays into the Levels concept because the ILB is more likely to play a short in, and with him being further to the inside the safety is more likely to crash down to cover it, leaving the deep in open. Instead, we ran "Get Open" with a 7 man protection.

 

4j1c2u.jpg

 

This the result. Where are the receivers??? Oh, there's Hilton up at the top corner, just barely visible, with hardly any room after his break to fit in a throw before he gets to the sideline. No one else across the middle? 

 

Luck winds up scrambling for an 8 yard gain, but understand that he's actually 18 yards away from the marker by the time the pressure forces him to leave the pocket, and he's not beating that linebacker. He slides 2 yards short, and we kick a FG. 

 

This is a scheme issue. There's no reason to run your receivers directly into off coverage on 3rd and long. There's no reason to have double deep reads on the same side of the field, especially when there's a blitz look on. There's no hot receiver, and even with a 7 man protection against a 5 man rush, Luck leaves the pocket because no one is going to come open on this play. 

 

Can you say what was done with the other two routes in this one?  To me for Luck to have immediately been looking towards the right upon the snap of the football it says that at least one of those routes was designed to be maybe a skinny post. Something that could be hit quickly in stride in the case of a blitz.  That was probably his hot route.  It wasn't there so he came back to TY who read the inside leverage they were playing and decided to break his route off towards the sideline.   As far as the line is concerned it looks like we went Max Protection which I'm sure they were more inclined to do with a young line.   That pretty much takes Turbin out of the equation as far as him being used in the concept.  Your Indy Pass illustration make sense overall though.

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Excellent breakdowns, thanks for posting. 

 

This is how I feel when these route trees are garbage, and/or Luck doesn't hit the open receiver quickly. 

 

Related image

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Thank you Supe for the amazing posts! You have educated me on some things, and it's gonna be hard to ignore these facts. Wow. How can minute details be pointed out on a forum like this, but go unnoticed/unheaded by our coaching staff?

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11 hours ago, Superman said:

I have three situations that illustrate my problems with the Colts passing offense. Pardon my rudimentary screenshots and whatnot, and pardon the lack of All 22 in these shots. You'll still get the point, though.

 

#1: Raiders, 4th quarter. Derek Carr is still in the game, he goes out on the next possession. They just punted, giving the Colts the ball on their own 4 yard line. There's just over 13 minutes left in the game. On first down, the Raiders come out in nickel against the Colts 3WR set, and as you can see, they play off on the right side. The corner is 8 yards off the line of scrimmage, and the defense is heavy in the middle of the field.

 

As effective as this offense can be, this is a great illustration of how it's not without it's flaws. Even when the offense is successful, they still find a way to make it look SO difficult, whereas they could just take what the defense gives them and not struggle for every single yard.

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11 hours ago, Superman said:

#3: Vikings game, the game where the offense was great and we dominated wire to wire and everything is awesome and "why can't we play like this every week," right? Yeah, actually, the Vikings played awful defense; not as awful as the Jets, but awful nonetheless. I don't mean to take credit away from the offense, but they were disjointed at times, missed chances, etc. Of course, they did a lot to protect the rookie RT in his first start, but there are still flaws in their concepts. This is early in the game. first drive, so it's possible they were still trying to feel out the Vikings defense, but I hate this play.

 

124h2cn.jpg

 

Third and 10. Bottom of the screen, two receivers, one in the slot, one out wide. Both DBs are playing off, but there's a nickel lined up at the edge. They also have 7 defenders on the line of scrimmage, showing a blitz look. You don't run a smoke route because it's third and long, and there's depth to the defense. The DB at the top is slightly shaded to the inside, so you probably won't get a clean release on a slant. Here's what Tom Moore would call, more or less:

 

314t0so.jpg

 

This is the old Indy concept, Levels. Double ins, with a vertical route on the other side. Moore would probably have the TE on the left side of the formation running a skinny post, but the primary read are the in breaking routes. The idea is the corner would release to the inside defenders and drop back, the nickel would drop back to the middle over the short in, but you're reading the safety to see if he also breaks on the short route. If so, the deep in from the slot receiver is open. If not, you have a dumpoff to the back. 

 

Here's what Chud called:

n2gz01.jpg

 

He ran the two receiver right into the deep coverage, they never broke across the middle before they crossed the marker, so why is Luck looking that way at the snap??? Is that the first read, really? No hot? The nickel actually blitzed and the ILB dropped, which is a good scheme, but it plays into the Levels concept because the ILB is more likely to play a short in, and with him being further to the inside the safety is more likely to crash down to cover it, leaving the deep in open. Instead, we ran "Get Open" with a 7 man protection.

 

4j1c2u.jpg

 

This the result. Where are the receivers??? Oh, there's Hilton up at the top corner, just barely visible, with hardly any room after his break to fit in a throw before he gets to the sideline. No one else across the middle? 

 

Luck winds up scrambling for an 8 yard gain, but understand that he's actually 18 yards away from the marker by the time the pressure forces him to leave the pocket, and he's not beating that linebacker. He slides 2 yards short, and we kick a FG. 

 

This is a scheme issue. There's no reason to run your receivers directly into off coverage on 3rd and long. There's no reason to have double deep reads on the same side of the field, especially when there's a blitz look on. There's no hot receiver, and even with a 7 man protection against a 5 man rush, Luck leaves the pocket because no one is going to come open on this play. 

 

 

You got way to much time on your hands like the Styx song.Do you have a job or you just obsessed with this? Because you can't change what happened and you can't do anything about it in the future either so let it go no offense.

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10 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

You got way to much time on your hands like the Styx song.Do you have a job or you just obsessed with this? Because you can't change what happened and you can't do anything about it in the future either so let it go no offense.

Ya, because how dare a person try to add a quality discussion on this forum. Endless threads bashing Chuck, Ryan, Irsay, and the team is way better.....Why even have a colts forum since none of us have the abilty to change anything?

 

What a stupid post. Maybe you have to much time on your hands since your here commenting as well?

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4 hours ago, twfish said:

Yup this has pretty much been my same complaint since pep. 

 

I was so hopeful when Pep left, but the gross inefficiency on offense remains. The common denominator is the QB.... Andrew Luck must improve managing the offense at the line of scrimmage.

 

Peyton Manning's mantra was "I take what the defense gives me." Luck is deficient in this.

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More fodder to the "the coaches maybe just good enough but they are not maximizing what they can get out of this offense" crowd, which I am part of. It is what it is at this point. Chud did let Cam Newton pass deep and run for his life when had that 1 year with Cam, looks like he is doing the same except for the fact he is "learning" to use the TEs more. It almost feels like Chud, being this the first full year in this offense, is still learning his offensive personnel and Luck is still learning to trust more and more options. Hopefully, the second full time year of Chud is much better with Luck progressing as well. 

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30 minutes ago, egg said:

 

Peyton Manning's mantra was "I take what the defense gives me." Luck is deficient in this.

 

However, it took him several years to get to that level. Even in the 2005 playoffs vs the Steelers, he ignored the flat several times including that 3rd down pass to Edge that was available to make it an easier FG for Vanderjagt. The first time I saw him hit the flat with regularity was when Addai was drafted and Addai set a SB record for passes caught by an RB and both Rhodes and Addai caught a lot of passes in the flat that SB run. Peyton however was ahead on the front of recognizing blitzes and changing protections and calls around this same time, except that he loved to throw farther than necessary more often.

 

It tells you something, that high percentage dinks and dunks is what most Ds want you to take, something Brady has made a living out of since his early days (insert RB - Faulk, Woodhead, Vereen, Dion Lewis, James White etc.) and playoff Ds want you to take more throws to get the same yards. Brady and the Patriots were far more patient than Peyton and the Colts on that front, except that our bend but don't break D under Dungy bent and broke against elite balanced Os like the Patriots, Chargers, Steelers etc. more often thus giving less room for error for the O. It is not a co-incidence we beat run oriented teams like the Chiefs, Ravens, Jets, Ravens in our 2 SB runs while beating one balanced offense in the Patriots while losing to the other balanced offense in the Saints.

 

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Whilst I feel this is a great analysis by Superman, I do feel posters are ignoring the obvious progression made by Luck since we drafted him. Yes, he does stare down TY on occassion. Yes, he makes the wrong decision sometimes. Despite this, his progression is obvious.

 

Whilst we may not like the scheme, Luck is getting better and better within it. Imagine Luck's numbers if he faced a league average number of pressure and drops. Imagine if he wasn't as unlucky with turnover worthy throws. It would be him, Brady, Ryan and Rodgers with no-one else close.

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6 hours ago, csmopar said:

Superman for OC?! 

Seconded.

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7 hours ago, zibby43 said:

These posts comprised the best Colts offensive analysis I've seen in the past two years.

 

Many, many thanks Superman.  Thank you for taking the time to share that write-up.  Colts need you as an analyst man.  For real.  You would think they'd have someone on staff that does this kind of self-scouting (looking for tendencies, etc.).

 

Anyway, great stuff, as usual. :rock:

 

I can't imagine that they don't. I just think, philosophically, this offense wants to stress the defense vertically, which they're good at -- the bail out on 3rd and 2 is a perfect example. But they don't take proper advantage underneath, and when they do, it's mostly to TEs. So your WRs get stuck with a lot of high difficulty stuff down the field, and not enough opportunities to catch and run. Rogers and Dorsett have ability with the ball in their hands to make people miss and outrun defenders, and they both got robbed of the opportunity to do so.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I can't imagine that they don't. I just think, philosophically, this offense wants to stress the defense vertically, which they're good at -- the bail out on 3rd and 2 is a perfect example. But they don't take proper advantage underneath, and when they do, it's mostly to TEs. So your WRs get stuck with a lot of high difficulty stuff down the field, and not enough opportunities to catch and run. Rogers and Dorsett have ability with the ball in their hands to make people miss and outrun defenders, and they both got robbed of the opportunity to do so.

This is all true and some of our best games this year we finally utilized some underneath routes and quick slants.  For some reason I thought Chud would be a great guy for the job.  Run an offense for quicker routes and less time in Luck's hand.  I will say that Luck needs to have a little more control of the offense like Manning did or at least have some better vision towards audibles.

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14 minutes ago, backshoulderfade said:

Whilst I feel this is a great analysis by Superman, I do feel posters are ignoring the obvious progression made by Luck since we drafted him. Yes, he does stare down TY on occassion. Yes, he makes the wrong decision sometimes. Despite this, his progression is obvious.

 

Whilst we may not like the scheme, Luck is getting better and better within it. Imagine Luck's numbers if he faced a league average number of pressure and drops. Imagine if he wasn't as unlucky with turnover worthy throws. It would be him, Brady, Ryan and Rodgers with no-one else close.

 

Luck is perfect for the Coryell passing attack, to be honest. But the OL isn't a good fit, and the adjustments I would like to see would take pressure off of the OL and eventually make the vertical stuff even more deadly. If you add these slants and screens and work better route combinations, the offense would be more efficient, and a byproduct to efficiency is explosiveness, especially when you already have a QB/WR combo like Luck to Hilton. 

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7 hours ago, Gyworks said:

I fully agree with the conclusions of your analysis. It's easy to blame the receivers for not getting open but oftentimes the concept just isn't right. That's why I don't understand how Luck is not given a bunch of plays to call the best one at the LOS? He always seems to give a lot of effort to execute the play just as called from the booth but he doesn't really seem to have the freedom to check out of play calls if the defense would require a different one.

 

None of us can know to what extent Luck has the freedom to adjust at the line. But when you look at the smoke opportunity in the Raiders game, he got the same look on back to back plays, never looked that way on first down, then took it on second down. I assume he has the freedom to sight adjust against that look. He runs a lot of 'check with me' plays, from what I see, so I do think he has some control, but I don't know to what extent he's coached to make those adjustments against certain looks.

 

This is also a situational adjustment. You take what you can get when you're in the shadow of your own end zone. A two yard gain is a win on 1st and 10, because it opens up your playbook just a little bit. I feel like the quick hitch is a no-brainer. 

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4 hours ago, Gabriel Alexander Morillo said:

The defense lines up after the offense lines up (for obvious reasons)  so that's on Luck to audible to a smoke route or slant route on those off coverage situations.  It would seem that he's not really allowed to audible or adjust plays much?  I doubt that he can't, but for whatever reason he rarely does it. 

In his defense.  In that particular situation, he's probably concerned with a pick near the goal line.  Maybe he's takes the safe route and just running the play that's called.

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5 hours ago, DougDew said:

In these situations, I blame Luck more than Chud, but I see the conceptual problems too. 

 

I say that the OC in the box does not know how the D will line up.  The Vikings illustration tells me that the play was called in the booth, right into the teeth of the defense....but obviously Chud doesn't know where the teeth of the defense is going to be when he sends the play in.  Its up to the QB to identify the poor routes and adjust the play.  Perhaps the entire route tree combination is flawed in that they do not complement each other, and that is a concept problem that probably needs to be modernized, but I would assume there is a better play in the playbook to call in that situation than the one that was run, and the QB should be able to do that.

 

In the first Raiders example, the lack of the smoke route on the first play could also be the result of the OC in the box not knowing how the defense is going to play.  When they D showed its intentions on the first play, the proper play was indeed called for second down and the 8 yard gain was accomplished.

 

The gameplan should say that when you need yards on 1st and 10, you take them. Yes, Luck has to identify that opportunity and make the adjustment, but Chud has been working with Luck for a long time now. Week 16 and we don't make that adjustment? Yes, it's on Luck, but where has the coaching been?

 

As for the Vikings play, let me say that this is not the only time the Colts run stuff like this on 3rd and long. It's a common thread for this offense, going back to Arians. You have defenders playing off, and again, the gameplan should emphasize adjustments against that look. The play call should stress the middle of the field, especially against a blitz look. They give you an umbrella coverage, and you run all three receivers to the top of the umbrella without so much as a hot option. What if your protection breaks down entirely? What option would the QB have? It's just a flawed concept on 3rd and 10, no matter how they line up, but especially when they play off on the outside. Give your playmakers a chance. 

 

A read option with a keeper to the weak side would have been a better play call. 

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5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

In his defense.  In that particular situation, he's probably concerned with a pick near the goal line.  Maybe he's takes the safe route and just running the play that's called.

 

And almost throws a pick...

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

However, it took him several years to get to that level. 

 

 

I don't disagree that Manning improved over the years, but in his 5th year, Luck should be better. Manning learned early on to check-off to run the ball when the D is playing pass. Luck is way to much:" I don't care if they have 6 DB's on the defense, I'm going to pass, and if nobody is open, I'll hold the ball until I get sacked."

 

It's hard for me to believe that Luck does't have the authority to change the play at the line. If he doesn't, well that in itself will lose the Colts a lot of games in any given year no matter what else happens.

 

I've said this before, but it's worth repeating: The '06 Colts averaged 151 yards rushing in four playoff games. Manning had 3 TDs and 7 INTs....moral of the story:the defenses played pass, they were determined to shut down Manning, so, Manning ran the ball down their throats. In those four games the Colts offense averaged 35 minutes time of possession to the the opponents 25.

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3 hours ago, krunk said:

Can you say what was done with the other two routes in this one?  To me for Luck to have immediately been looking towards the right upon the snap of the football it says that at least one of those routes was designed to be maybe a skinny post. Something that could be hit quickly in stride in the case of a blitz.  That was probably his hot route.  It wasn't there so he came back to TY who read the inside leverage they were playing and decided to break his route off towards the sideline.   As far as the line is concerned it looks like we went Max Protection which I'm sure they were more inclined to do with a young line.   That pretty much takes Turbin out of the equation as far as him being used in the concept.  Your Indy Pass illustration make sense overall though.

 

You don't run a skinny post against off coverage, especially not as a hot.

 

I think the outside ran a deep hitch and the inside ran a skinny post, go or corner. .

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

You don't run a skinny post against off coverage, especially not as a hot.

 

I think the outside ran a deep hitch and the inside ran a skinny post, go or corner. .

Yea too many times opponents would have their coverage be 10 to 15 yards off of us and we run routes right into them.  I never understood that.  At least run a comeback route or a curl.

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