Jay Kirk Baseball Thread since 2017: The 2021 season, Dodgers Repeat?
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By richard pallo · Posted
Once players think you have the right coach and a franchise quarterback everything changes. Night turns into daylight. -
That would be a typical Falcon move... Lol ! Verse is a nice player but to me you absolutely take the player from Alabama who's a one man wrecking crew. The SEC is a much tougher conference as well. No disrespect to FSU which is playing in a much softer conference. However, if the Falcons bit on Verse, Turner could fall to 15. -
I don’t think he’s fairly being judged here. There’s been reports every single year that we were the high bidder and yet lost out. I truly think most of that comes down to the fact we really don’t have much to offer in terms of things not counting as salary. No franchise QB proven yet, no bikini clad babes or beaches, income tax etc. -
I have macro, philosophical pushback, which is basically covered in this article: "The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun." "Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they overvalue the 'right to choose' in the draft." "'I firmly do not believe you trade a high pick, which is going to be a difference-maker, in order to pick up two picks,' he (Polian) said. "But that's the issue, one former NFL executive pointed out. That logic assumes the player you're initially picking will actually become a difference-maker." "'The problem for everyone in sports is that nobody wants to admit how random and arbitrary it is,' the former NFL executive said. 'Admitting that it's arbitrary takes away from your specific abilities.'" So my pushback is that talking yourself into a specific player is inherently risky. Ask the Panthers. Doesn't mean you can't be right, but I think if you analyze the results of trade-ups for prospects, there's no consistent success. You can tell me all day long that MHJ and Nabers are the best prospects of the last five years -- and I don't necessarily disagree -- but the truth is that no one really knows what they'll become in the NFL. And the way we talk about our favorite prospects doesn't accurately reflect that reality. We're all guilty at times of talking about these guys like they're locks, but history tells us that anyone can bust, at any spot in the draft. My more specific pushback is that I think the way this year's draft is expected to go at the top will result in the Colts still having a great menu of options available at #15, and they can still get a prospect they really like who has playmaker potential without trading up. Especially if you're eyeing a WR. So as much as I would love to have one of the top three receivers, I don't see the value in moving up this year. (And I'll admit a personal bias: I love Brian Thomas Jr, and think we'd be in great shape if we drafted him at #15.) Edit: To the point of trying to support the QB with offensive playmakers, I'd rather see us trade #15 for an established player than to use #15 plus two more highly valuable picks to draft a question mark. He's probably not the right fit, but you can probably get Aiyuk for that pick. Or go crazy and give up the package you're suggesting we use for MHJ to trade for CeeDee Lamb. I'm all for supporting the QB, but if we're going to sacrifice major draft capital, go after a proven player.
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