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The World Isn't Over [Merge]


King Colt

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22 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Top tier picks are not required to put winning teams on the field.

I hate saying this but New England has been doing it for a while now. ( sometimes without a #1)

No matter where the pick is made in any round finding the right one is the key.

I agree, but the higher your picks are, the better the odds of picking a good player.

Especially with Grigson.  

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6 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

With the greatest respect, I understand your position and honestly you're correct. But that goes for every team, the worst finish is always going to be the SBowl runner up. If every team who's got no realistic shot started tanking it would soon make a farce of the league. 

 

To that end, though I know realistically it is probably better we lose so we get a better pick and maybe even a change of FO, I'd still rather hang on to trying to enjoy things week to week until all hope has truly been extinguished. I mean if you want us to lose it must make it weirdly bittersweet when we actually do have positive plays? 

I hear ya, and I agree with you.  If teams like the Jets and Titans (and every other team without a realistic shot at winning) begin tanking, it makes the league a joke.  However, I'd argue that our position is a unique one in that we need to:

1) revamp the roster

2) find a new head coach

3) find a new GM

 

Not only that, but our defense is among the worst in the league.  There aren't many teams in the league that have that sort of combination, with so many drastic changes required.  I also think we're in a bit of a rush because we don't want to waste Luck's career and come out of it with a supreme talent who only wins one Super Bowl (if that).  I don't want Luck to be turn into Phillip Rivers or Matt Ryan.  So awful management in the first few years of Lucks career + a roster lacking talent + an inept coaching staff = we need to put ourselves in a position to win now.  This roster and coaching staff can't do it.

 

I'm not saying the coaches will tank and Grigson will trade older guys away to secure draft picks.  That definitely won't happen because it would be the equivalent of Grigson and Pagano firing themselves.  But I just want to make the point to the fans on here that losses are actually a good thing for us, while these wins hurt the future of the franchise because they delude Irsay into thinking Grigson and Pagano know what they're doing.

 

And yes, it is very bittersweet when I see great plays haha .  It's definitely bittersweet to see Luck playing well or Hilton making great players, only to know it won't lead to anything this year.  It's like having the opponent's players on your fantasy team, or your opponent having Luck on his fantasy team.

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3 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

I hear ya, and I agree with you.  If teams like the Jets and Titans (and every other team without a realistic shot at winning) begin tanking, it makes the league a joke.  However, I'd argue that our position is a unique one in that we need to:

1) revamp the roster

2) find a new head coach

3) find a new GM

 

Not only that, but our defense is among the worst in the league.  There aren't many teams in the league that have that sort of combination, with so many drastic changes required.  I also think we're in a bit of a rush because we don't want to waste Luck's career and come out of it with a supreme talent who only wins one Super Bowl (if that).  I don't want Luck to be turn into Phillip Rivers or Matt Ryan.  So awful management in the first few years of Lucks career + a roster lacking talent + an inept coaching staff = we need to put ourselves in a position to win now.  This roster and coaching staff can't do it.

 

I'm not saying the coaches will tank and Grigson will trade older guys away to secure draft picks.  That definitely won't happen because it would be the equivalent of Grigson and Pagano firing themselves.  But I just want to make the point to the fans on here that losses are actually a good thing for us, while these wins hurt the future of the franchise because they delude Irsay into thinking Grigson and Pagano know what they're doing.

 

And yes, it is very bittersweet when I see great plays haha .  It's definitely bittersweet to see Luck playing well or Hilton making great players, only to know it won't lead to anything this year.  It's like having the opponent's players on your fantasy team, or your opponent having Luck on his fantasy team.

21 I probably agree with your posts as much as anyone on the board, but you have it dead wrong here.  I've posted about this before, but will again because it's important for fans to understand.  

 

If we tank all the way down and get the #1 pick and say New England wins the Super Bowl and picks last, here is the reality of it all (and remember, this is the absolute best case scenario for tankers): 

 

We pick 1st.  We have 1 player who, as a first rounder, has historically been a bust about half the time.  

After this point, NE gets to pick 1 pick before us the rest of the draft until the final round.  So in a best case scenario, we improve our team by a single player and that's it.  If that player is a bust, we're picking BEHIND the SB winner the rest of the way meaning we're likely getting even worse.  Even if that player is a long term starter and pro bowl quality player, outside of QB, which we already have, what positional player could we add to this current team that would make us a winner and SB contender?  The answer is none.  Especially as a rookie.  Pick the best rookie out there and put him on our team.  Ezekiel Elliot?  Okay.  So how does that help our Defense stop anyone?  Perhaps the CB at Jacksonville who starts for them?  Has he made them a contender (along with many years of similar high picks?).  Nope.  

 

The fact is that we'd need to tank 3-4-5 years for a draft advantage to really make up the gap we have on other teams and that is only if we keep hitting home runs on that one extra player we get.  And I gave you the largest possible spread.  What if we pick 6th compared to the last Playoff team in, who picks somewhere around 21st?  Then the margin of difference in our first pick is even less and after that, the other team (the one who eeked into the playoffs by winning the worst division) is picking 16 spots before us the rest of the draft.   (Plus, this year for example, we don't have a 7th rounder, so my example applies even more).   

 

Every season we have Luck is priceless.  The only way to turn this around is to have solid drafts and targeted FA signing for 2-3 years that mostly all work.  If we do that, we don't need to tank and we don't need to not pursue the playoffs.  If we don't have people who can pick those picks and sign those FA's., having the top picks won't matter anyway.   Tanking is ALWAYS a bad idea in Football unless you have no Franchise QB and need one that is available in the next draft and we already did that.  That ship has sailed. 

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13 hours ago, Mr Coffee said:

You seem to be under the delusion that this team doesn't suck.  Well guess what?  We suck.  Beating a bad team in a horrid division shouldn't make you feel any better about this team than you did last week.  The same problems remain. They were just masked a bit because of who we were playing.  This game was fools gold for some of the homers on the board.  It'll be back down to reality very quickly though.  

Have you looked at the AFC? New England is 6/1, Raiders 5/2...everybody else is in the 4/3, 3/4 column...who are these elite teams that are going to destroy us....it seems like everybody in the AFC except New England has problems and can be beat. I'm not saying we don't have problems or even that we are a good team, just that if you go by the records, nobody is crushing it outside of New England.

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These 2 games before the bye week are pretty much key to everything. If we go 5-4 miraculously, our team will have a puncher's chance for winning the division.

 

One, it will show us if we can hang with a good D or good O. Two, it will provide us much needed confidence. Realistically, I am thinking we beat the Chiefs and get beat by the Packers. 

 

I feel we get 8 wins when it is all said and done and end up at .500

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1 hour ago, James Ducheteau said:

Have you looked at the AFC? New England is 6/1, Raiders 5/2...everybody else is in the 4/3, 3/4 column...who are these elite teams that are going to destroy us....it seems like everybody in the AFC except New England has problems and can be beat. I'm not saying we don't have problems or even that we are a good team, just that if you go by the records, nobody is crushing it outside of New England.

Well some of their loses are against other good teams. Pitt lost to NE and a good philly team. Most of ours are to the Lions Jags and Texans. It's different to lose to other good teams then it is to get beat by other garbage teams.

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42 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

Well some of their loses are against other good teams. Pitt lost to NE and a good philly team. Most of ours are to the Lions Jags and Texans. It's different to lose to other good teams then it is to get beat by other garbage teams.

Agreed, but per the standings we've got just as good of a chance as anybody. It really comes down to the next two weeks

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On 10/23/2016 at 3:37 PM, Bogie said:

 

Win the division, barely win a playoff game...get stomped into the ground by New England in the divisional round and then another "controversy" accusing them "cheating"

 

It is prophecy, you cannot fail. 

Funny how you put controversy and cheating in quotes despite the fact that the patriots were fined a million dollars and lost two draft picks, including a first rounder.  But yeah, put them in quotes to make it seem like it was all made up.

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6 hours ago, JPFolks said:

We pick 1st.  We have 1 player who, as a first rounder, has historically been a bust about half the time.  

After this point, NE gets to pick 1 pick before us the rest of the draft until the final round.  So in a best case scenario, we improve our team by a single player and that's it.  If that player is a bust, we're picking BEHIND the SB winner the rest of the way meaning we're likely getting even worse.  Even if that player is a long term starter and pro bowl quality player, outside of QB, which we already have, what positional player could we add to this current team that would make us a winner and SB contender?  The answer is none.  Especially as a rookie.  Pick the best rookie out there and put him on our team.  Ezekiel Elliot?  Okay.  So how does that help our Defense stop anyone?  Perhaps the CB at Jacksonville who starts for them?  Has he made them a contender (along with many years of similar high picks?).  Nope.  

 

The fact is that we'd need to tank 3-4-5 years for a draft advantage to really make up the gap we have on other teams and that is only if we keep hitting home runs on that one extra player we get.  And I gave you the largest possible spread.  What if we pick 6th compared to the last Playoff team in, who picks somewhere around 21st?  Then the margin of difference in our first pick is even less and after that, the other team (the one who eeked into the playoffs by winning the worst division) is picking 16 spots before us the rest of the draft.   (Plus, this year for example, we don't have a 7th rounder, so my example applies even more).   

 

Every season we have Luck is priceless.  The only way to turn this around is to have solid drafts and targeted FA signing for 2-3 years that mostly all work.  If we do that, we don't need to tank and we don't need to not pursue the playoffs.  If we don't have people who can pick those picks and sign those FA's., having the top picks won't matter anyway.   Tanking is ALWAYS a bad idea in Football unless you have no Franchise QB and need one that is available in the next draft and we already did that.  That ship has sailed. 

Respectfully, I disagree with your hypothetical scenario.  It depends on how you look at it.  You could say we pick 1 pick after the Super Bowl champs.  But a more realistic way of looking is the Super Bowl champs make their first pick 30 spots after we make our first pick.  So the talent available to us with our first round pick would be far better than the talent available to the Super Bowl champs.  In essence, we'd be one round ahead of the Super Bowl champs because our 2nd round pick comes immediately after their 1st round pick, meaning the talent available to use for our second pick is equivalent to what they have for their first pick.  That's a big difference.

 

Secondly, if we wanted to add 1 player to our defense, an elite pass rusher (and good rookie pass rushers can be found) would improve our team by a lot.  There's also the very real possibility that if we get the first overall pick (which we almost certainly won't, given Cleveland's record), some QB-needy team will want to trade with us to get it.  In that case, we move down the draft and gain several more picks, allowing us to add a lot more talent to our team in just one draft.  To put that in perspective, Ray Lewis and Jon Ogden were both part of the same draft.  Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, and Bruce Irvin were part of the same draft.  It's obviously not common to have that many hits in one draft, but one very good draft could improve your team by a lot.

 

Lastly, I agree with you that every season with Luck is of utmost importance.  That's why I'm saying losses are better for us now.  It would increase the chances of Pagano and Grigson being fired, and give us a better draft slot.  That gives us the opportunity to bring in someone with more potential as a head coach (Gruden or McDaniels, just to name a couple of options), someone with more potential as a GM, and more talent through the draft.  I'd much rather sacrifice this year than keep Pagano and Grigson and continue with our 10-win teams that get stomped in the playoffs because of poor coaching and roster building.  In my eyes, it would be sacrificing this season so we can have several better seasons in the future.  That gives us a much better shot at winning championships than keeping Pagano and Grigson, in my opinion.  If we stick with Pagano and Grigson, I think we could be wasting Luck's career.  If we tank and fire them, we could get away with sacrificing just one season.

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3 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

Respectfully, I disagree with your hypothetical scenario.  It depends on how you look at it.  You could say we pick 1 pick after the Super Bowl champs.  But a more realistic way of looking is the Super Bowl champs make their first pick 30 spots after we make our first pick.  So the talent available to us with our first round pick would be far better than the talent available to the Super Bowl champs.  In essence, we'd be one round ahead of the Super Bowl champs because our 2nd round pick comes immediately after their 1st round pick, meaning the talent available to use for our second pick is equivalent to what they have for their first pick.  That's a big difference.

 

Secondly, if we wanted to add 1 player to our defense, an elite pass rusher (and good rookie pass rushers can be found) would improve our team by a lot.  There's also the very real possibility that if we get the first overall pick (which we almost certainly won't, given Cleveland's record), some QB-needy team will want to trade with us to get it.  In that case, we move down the draft and gain several more picks, allowing us to add a lot more talent to our team in just one draft.  To put that in perspective, Ray Lewis and Jon Ogden were both part of the same draft.  Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, and Bruce Irvin were part of the same draft.  It's obviously not common to have that many hits in one draft, but one very good draft could improve your team by a lot.

 

Lastly, I agree with you that every season with Luck is of utmost importance.  That's why I'm saying losses are better for us now.  It would increase the chances of Pagano and Grigson being fired, and give us a better draft slot.  That gives us the opportunity to bring in someone with more potential as a head coach (Gruden or McDaniels, just to name a couple of options), someone with more potential as a GM, and more talent through the draft.  I'd much rather sacrifice this year than keep Pagano and Grigson and continue with our 10-win teams that get stomped in the playoffs because of poor coaching and roster building.  In my eyes, it would be sacrificing this season so we can have several better seasons in the future.  That gives us a much better shot at winning championships than keeping Pagano and Grigson, in my opinion.  If we stick with Pagano and Grigson, I think we could be wasting Luck's career.  If we tank and fire them, we could get away with sacrificing just one season.

I don't disagree. But when the draft is over, we still only have 1 guy who is a round above even the last pick in the draft.  Write it out on paper and look at the end result.  1 guy. And 50% that player is a bust or nothing special.  I am not just trying to argue, it really does come down to one guy.  Even if they are a big success, you're going to need 3-4 just like him to significantly upgrade the team starting where we are. I wish we were at a coffee shop and I could write the picks down to illustrate it better.  But I appreciate the cordial disagreement. We made our points, others can decide for themselves.  Thanks.

 

PS: If Irsay isn't already having a team of people searching out new coaches and a new GM, all is lost anyway.  I do think Chudzinski has done more good than harm, but he should stay coordinator and not replace Chuck. That would give us stability.  His offensive game plan with all our missing pieces this week was solid.  Use our TEs and pass to the RBs...I have been screaming that on here all offseason, last season and this and we are finally seeing it employed and working and Luck is having his best year even as the most hit, hurried and sacked QB in the league....

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Regarding tanking. I just think it does no good unless you have a once in a generation QB coming out of the Draft like an Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning and even then you really need to tank to get the #1 pick. The Draft is a crapshoot, whether a team picks 6th, 7th, 8th or 21st it really makes no difference IMO. You may end up with a better player at 21. As long as we have 7 picks and have a 1st Round pick I could care less where we Draft. We have our Franchise QB so it is what it is. I just want to win, make the Playoffs, and let the future take care of itself. I honestly think if we don't win the Division and make the Playoffs it's embarrassing considering we have Andrew Luck and a winning tradition. Just win baby - Al Davis!

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22 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

I don't disagree. But when the draft is over, we still only have 1 guy who is a round above even the last pick in the draft.  Write it out on paper and look at the end result.  1 guy. And 50% that player is a bust or nothing special.  I am not just trying to argue, it really does come down to one guy.  Even if they are a big success, you're going to need 3-4 just like him to significantly upgrade the team starting where we are. I wish we were at a coffee shop and I could write the picks down to illustrate it better.  But I appreciate the cordial disagreement. We made our points, others can decide for themselves.  Thanks.

 

PS: If Irsay isn't already having a team of people searching out new coaches and a new GM, all is lost anyway.  I do think Chudzinski has done more good than harm, but he should stay coordinator and not replace Chuck. That would give us stability.  His offensive game plan with all our missing pieces this week was solid.  Use our TEs and pass to the RBs...I have been screaming that on here all offseason, last season and this and we are finally seeing it employed and working and Luck is having his best year even as the most hit, hurried and sacked QB in the league....

Actually, when the draft is over, we'll have roughly 7 players chosen around 30 spots before the champs' respective pick in the same round.  That's a big difference.  Our second round pick is equivalent to their first, our 3rd to their 2nd, etc.  So we beat them by a full round each time.  That's why the draft is built the way it is, with the worst team picking first and the champs picking last.  It would look like this:

 

Colts pick 1st...champs pick 32nd

Colts pick 33rd....champs pick 64th

Colts pick 65th...champs pick 96th

 

You could even make the case that we're almost getting 2 first round picks because the talent available at 33 (2nd round) is essentially the same as what is left at 32 (first round).  You're trying to suggest that there isn't a big difference between picking at the start of a round vs. picking at the end of the round, which is simply untrue.  There is much more talent available at #1 than at #32, more at #33 than at #64, etc.

 

Just looking at a draft value chart (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/), you can see the large difference in the value of picking first vs. last in each round.

 

Chud staying isn't necessarily up to him.  He could get fired, get an offer to be a head coach elsewhere, or Pagano could get fired and the new head coach would want his own coaching staff.  Not only that, but in the event that Chud does replace Pagano, he would still have a large say in the offensive game plan, so it's not like we would lose that if he becomes head coach.  For what it's worth, I do not advocate for Chud to be the next head coach. 

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I don't care where we draft.  It will be what it will be.  What I do want is everybody trying, and everybody trying to get better.  Learn to clean up mistakes and thus learning to win.

 

and if we take this division (even at  an ugly 8 - 8 record, I'll accept the playoff run they make of it- blowout or not.  1 and done or string some (even lucky) wins.  I'll root for them to get in to the post season , until the math says otherwise.

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I would agree with JP AND Superman here.  Both IMHO are correct.  If you stay at your draft position, then you gain at most 1 player over the team that picks last.  However, where I agree with Superman is the higher your pick, let's say for example #5, you might be able to trade that pick and gain multiple picks in the first two rounds, let's say you trade back to #12.   Those extra picks could be VITAL in re-shaping this roster.  So it depends on what they do with it really.

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I don't care for tanking.   But I do understand it.   What does going 8-8 and missing the players get you that the team that went 5-11 get you?   The 10th pick in each round rather than the 3rd.  

I know draft picks are a crapshoot, but your odds are better the higher you pick.   

Here's a pretty good table that shows that the higher the pick, the more likely you are of getting a pro bowl player.   Granted this is by round, but the thought is the same.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/articles/view/draft-status-of-2016-nfl-pro-bowl-selections

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 Why not try and make the best out of each and every player we have and try to win every game? You know like New England does?(can't believe I just used them to support my arguement, barf!)  I know, I know, there's only one Bill Bellichik, Mcdaniels, etc.. but they seem to do well every year with where they pick in the draft due to thier continued success? We saw what they did without Brady, so? Are thier scouts really that good? 

 

I know a lot of you think the only way this will happen is going to require a coaching/mgmt change, and I don't necessarily disagree, just hate to purposely lose for any reason, and a lot of people pay good $$$ to go the games and see them win. IDK just my opinion.

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4 minutes ago, \m/COLTS\m/ said:

 Why not try and make the best out of each and every player we have and try to win every game? You know like New England does?(can't believe I just used them to support my arguement, barf!)  I know, I know, there's only one Bill Bellichik, Mcdaniels, etc.. but they seem to do well every year with where they pick in the draft due to thier continued success? We saw what they did without Brady, so? Are thier scouts really that good? 

 

I know a lot of you think the only way this will happen is going to require a coaching/mgmt change, and I don't necessarily disagree, just hate to purposely lose for any reason, and a lot of people pay good $$$ to go the games and see them win. IDK just my opinion.

Good points.    I think tanking on purpose this early in the season is stupid.   I also don't think teams do it.   Weeks 14-16, I think some do.   Sometimes it really is the smart thing to do.   You're making the team better for the future.  

I don't think ANY coaches tank on purpose.  

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Evidently,  some on here have a crystal ball and can see into the future that the next  GM and coach will magically be better. :dunno: .   Not convinced.

 

I'm not for tanking or losing on purpose, no matter what you think the outcome will be.  I believe you always play to win.  Always.

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Putting our reputation, our integrity, and our beliefs on the line by tanking for the lottery that is the Draft is a joke, and an insult to the paying fan. Stop being so desparate and start trusting in the fairness of the system that makes this game so great. Polian dragged us through the mud before, so no thanks. Like Gramz said, play to win at all times. Leave the cheating to Voldemort and his disciples.

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7 hours ago, Gramz said:

You can do whatever you want.   

 

I never root for my team to lose, ever. 

What if they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and are on their last game?  The only thing they stand to lose is a few draft spots?  Just asking.  there are no right or wrong answers here, only opinions.

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32 minutes ago, NeedsADefence said:

We need to loss out to many hole to fix and the late round draft pics wont help you think there would be a stud pass rusher in the late 1st round.... I think not

 

While I agree the higher you pick the better the chance you get (purely from having the full talent pool available to you) the draft is still a crap shoot in some respects. If you don't scout well you're just going to be picking you're busts earlier. 

 

As to pass rushers, it's not unheard of to find one later than then the 1st round. Houston, Allen, Mathis, Dumervil, Strahan off the top of my head. That's setting the bar high too. Even having a rotational guy who can flash (Newsome?) would be good right now.

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7 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

What if they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and are on their last game?  The only thing they stand to lose is a few draft spots?  Just asking.  there are no right or wrong answers here, only opinions.

That's my point too.   Once the playoffs are out of reach, losing is a better option for the teams future.   I'd rather have the 6th pick in each round than the 15th pick.  Both for picking and trading.  

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On 10/23/2016 at 4:37 PM, Bogie said:

 

Win the division, barely win a playoff game...get stomped into the ground by New England in the divisional round and then another "controversy" accusing them "cheating"

 

It is prophecy, you cannot fail. 

As I have watched this season and last season (granted we had tons of injuries) I cannot help but wonder "Playoffs? Playoffs? You kidding me, Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game". I think we can safely forget about competing for a SB Championship, or even an AFC Championship. We are game to game hoping for a win and waiting on the Draft. Reminds me of the 80's

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/26/2016 at 10:13 PM, braveheartcolt said:

Why not? Did you read what SSC said? It's like saying you can't get a GOAT QB candidate in the 7th.....

 

Look if we had the PAT orginization type of scouting and coaching then yeah i trust that 7th round pick draft choice, but we don't. We have clueless Pagano, and a really stupid GM. I mean look Doyle is out performing Allen.

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11 hours ago, NeedsADefence said:

Look if we had the PAT orginization type of scouting and coaching then yeah i trust that 7th round pick draft choice, but we don't. We have clueless Pagano, and a really stupid GM. I mean look Doyle is out performing Allen.

You may have your opinion of Pagano and Grigson but using Doyle-Allen comparison is not going to make your case. Doyle was one of Grigsons reach for a diamond so to say. He was thought of a waist of time for two years. Doyle is one of the players where Grigson did hit a home run.

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