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How bad was the 2013 offseason?


Superman

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T  H  I  S    B  A  D  ! ! ! !

 

Now that Thornton is the only draft pick remaining from the class, I figured I'd do a post-mortem. We already know that this offseason didn't have the lasting results everyone hoped it would, but piece by piece, it's really bad.

 

I'll start with free agency. Keep in mind that none of these guys were signed to be franchise players or to change the team from zero to hero, but I think it's reasonable to have expected a lot more than what they gave the team.

 

Signed:

Gosder Cherilus -- Signed to start at RT, and when he played he was adequate, but he only made it two years into a five year contract before he was released. They gave him nearly $7m/year, paying him a total of $18m -- elite RT money -- and got about $5m worth of production out of him. His knee was predictably a big issue. D-

Laron Landry -- Starting SS, but he couldn't cover. Then he got hurt, then he got suspended for PEDs, then he got cut after two years, then he got suspended another 10 games, then he got suspended a third time. Never seemed to be a part of the team, and some veteran guys made side-eye comments about him while he was here. F

Donald Thomas -- Supposed to be a starting guard, and he made it all of five quarters before suffering a huge leg injury. Tried to come back the next year and got hurt again. Released before Year 3. INC

Aubrayo Franklin -- Starting NT, wasn't good, but adequate for a vet minimum deal. Left after one year, hasn't been a factor in the league since. C+

Greg Toler -- Starting CB, had a serious leg injury in Year 1, bounced back to have a decent year, then was toast all season long in Year 3. Signed late in free agency on a non-comp contract with Washington. C

Ricky Jean Francois -- Rotational DL, was serviceable, seemed like a good teammate, nothing special on the field, not worth his $5.5m/year, didn't make it to Year 3. He's also in Washington. C

Matt Hasselbeck -- Backup QB, did nothing on the field his first two years when he was arguably overpaid to hold a clipboard, re-signed for 2015 and wound up getting punished for 8 games before he went on IR. That half a season of legal assault and battery probably prompted his retirement. Glad he was here, and he no doubt helped Luck behind the scenes. B+

Erik Walden -- Publicly decried as a bad signing, he was probably the best acquisition of the offseason (or tied with Hasselbeck). They probably overshot the market a little bit, but he's started a bunch of games, stayed healthy, and will be in camp in 2016, barring significant changes. B

Lawrence Sidbury -- Meh, not worth a grade.

 

Traded for:

Stanley Havili -- Supposed to be a versatile FB in Pep Hamilton's No Coast Offense (don't wanna even get started on the Pep hire...), he wound up being just a guy who did nothing worth mentioning. He probably made more mistakes -- penalties, missed blocks, dropped passes -- than good plays. I liked him back to USC, but he didn't bring any of that college playmaker with him to Indy. C-

Kelvin Sheppard -- The guy they traded Jerry Hughes for. More on him in a minute, but let's just say we lost that trade. Sheppard was insignificant against the run, bad in coverage, and gone after one season. D-

Trent Richardson -- I put this on him more than on the team, but we all know how this played out. F

 

Drafted (the second round pick is represented by Vontae Davis, which was absolutely a great move):

Bjoern Werner -- Gone after three years, 6.5 sacks, and a notable cluster of healthy inactives for a team with little pass rush. I think he would have been an adequate Sam, but that ship has sailed. Ugh. D

Hugh Thornton -- Still has a chance to salvage something good out of this draft, as the ONLY REMAINING DRAFTEE from four classes ago. I like his tools, but he has stamina and technique issues, and will have to battle with lesser talented players for a roster spot, let alone a starting job. C+

Khaled Holmes -- The inspiration for this depressing post, could never hold on to the starting center job, which was wide open and ready for him to take control of. Not tough, he seemed to digress in 2015, and now he's on waivers. D-

Montori Hughes -- Gone after two seasons and coming nowhere close to living up to the praise that Pagano and Grigson bestowed upon him when they drafted him. D

John Boyett -- Gone before camp for getting arrested for alcohol related buffoonery. I feel sorry for him, but end of the day, he messed up a solid opportunity. F

Kerwynn Williams -- Was supposed to be an electric player with the ball in his hands, but looked sluggish, and never did anything for us. D

Justice Cunningham -- Got a little burn at TE, but ultimately did nothing worth remembering. C-

 

Noteworthy players lost (among others):

Dwight Freeney -- At the time the Colts all time sacks leader, they let him walk without even a lowball courtesy offer. He hasn't done a whole lot since, after getting hurt in San Diego and then having a little bit of a resurgence in 2015 for Arizona, but I would rather have had him on the Colts than giving his last few ounces of pass rush to other teams.

Jerry Hughes -- A knucklehead through and through, and I still believe -- despite no proof -- that he asked out, but we traded him for a day old sack lunch, while he went and bolstered what would become one of the best pass rushing DLs in the league, earning himself a $10m/year contract.

 

I think that's enough, right?

 

I've defended the staff more than most, and I've been called some interesting things as a result -- homer, Pollyanna, whatever. I'm not at all anti-Grigson or anti-Pagano, and I hope they do well because they run MY team. But if you ever wonder why they lost so many fans after what seemed like an unprecedented get-off in 2012, the results of the 2013 offseason -- long term -- should explain it for you. They had oodles of cap space and a bunch of picks, and three years later, almost nothing of consequence remains. Not even the offensive coordinator who was supposed to unlock the true magic of Andrew Luck. This absolutely putrid offseason helps explain why there are almost no young defensive playmakers on the roster, and it can help you understand why this team will have $50m in cap space in 2017 (they have been good with the cap, no doubt).

 

Good news? They've not come close to this level of ineptitude since. Not that every move has worked out, but nowhere near this kind of strike out rate in 2014 and 2015. At least so far, although 2014's draft is down to two guys (granted, pretty good guys). To use a Grigson phrase, you could say the arrow is pointing up.

 

I certainly hope it is. Irsay just re-upped both of them for the next four seasons.

 

GO COLTS!!!

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21 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

Curious how other teams have faired in the last 5 years? Maybe someone could analyze the Patriots worst offseason in that time frame. 

 

The 2013 draft was notoriously bad. We knew it at the time, and it's been even worse than predicted.

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That year really did put the team behind. That year was a very important year as well and the F.O. Obviously blew it! We were stuck trying to make up for it for the next 2 or 3 seasons!

 

I think the front office learned some lessons that year in the draft.

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13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The 2013 draft was notoriously bad. We knew it at the time, and it's been even worse than predicted.

I didn't follow football as closely then but seeing the end result I definitely agree. I'm just curious how other teams have fared. I looked at NE's drafts from 2012-2016 and they only had one good one IMO in '12 I believe. Obviously have no idea about their free agents during that span though. 

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49 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The 2013 draft was notoriously bad. We knew it at the time, and it's been even worse than predicted.

 

I somehow find a way to always end up being optimistic on the draft class , so I can't say that I called that one as many of you did. 

 

However I did say over and over that Laron Landry was an absolute bonehead signing. I still find it hard to believe that Pagano , who was a DB "expert" raved about Landry.

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1 minute ago, dw49 said:

 

I somehow find a way to always end up being optimistic on the draft class , so I can't say that I called that one as many of you did. 

 

However I did say over and over that Laron Landry was an absolute bonehead signing. I still find it hard to believe that Pagano , who was a DB "expert" raved about Landry.

 

I meant the entire draft class. Almost no skill guys in the first round, just a bunch of uninspiring linemen, EJ Manuel was the only first round QB, and none of the other QBs in the draft will ever do anything in the league, the way it looks now. 

 

Landry was coming off of a Pro Bowl season. They obviously didn't call that one right, but at the time I could see what they thought they were getting. Too bad for us he was a jerk and a bum who didn't actually want to play football.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I meant the entire draft class. Almost no skill guys in the first round, just a bunch of uninspiring linemen, EJ Manuel was the only first round QB, and none of the other QBs in the draft will ever do anything in the league, the way it looks now. 

 

Landry was coming off of a Pro Bowl season. They obviously didn't call that one right, but at the time I could see what they thought they were getting. Too bad for us he was a jerk and a bum who didn't actually want to play football.

 

I thought Landry has a few good games and was not worthy of making the Pro Bowl. Furthermore I thought his injuries that wrecked his last couple seasons with Washington was due to something other than "bad luck." Guys with biceps bigger than their waist just make me a bit suspicious. This too I said when he was signed. 

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Thank you so much Superman for having the stones to say this. I completely agree. We had an opportunity in Pagono's/Grigsons first years here with available cap space to do great things. It just hasn't happened in the fashion we as a fan base have expected. I realize that there have been successes in their time here that should be recognized, but the team is not where it should be personnel-wise. And I hope that Coach Pagono learns how to make in-game adjustment better, he seems to be out-coached quite a bit. JMO

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1 hour ago, SP_21 said:

I didn't follow football as closely then but seeing the end result I definitely agree. I'm just curious how other teams have fared. I looked at NE's drafts from 2012-2016 and they only had one good one IMO in '12 I believe. Obviously have no idea about their free agents during that span though. 

What is it with your obsession with the Patriots? Is it possible for you to make a comment without having to harp on the Patriots? I think deep inside you are a Patriot fan. Just an observation.

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19 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

What is it with your obsession with the Patriots? Is it possible for you to make a comment without having to harp on the Patriots? I think deep inside you are a Patriot fan. Just an observation.

What are you talking about? I doubt I've mentioned the Pats before ever. It was just the team I used as an example because they are a consistently successful team. 

 

Why do you always have something negative say about my post? Is it possible for you to contribute to a conversation? I think  deep down you just want to whine. Just my observation. 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I meant the entire draft class. Almost no skill guys in the first round, just a bunch of uninspiring linemen, EJ Manuel was the only first round QB, and none of the other QBs in the draft will ever do anything in the league, the way it looks now. 

 

Landry was coming off of a Pro Bowl season. They obviously didn't call that one right, but at the time I could see what they thought they were getting. Too bad for us he was a jerk and a bum who didn't actually want to play football.

Now tell us how you really feel about LaRon, no holding back this time :D

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3 hours ago, Dustin said:

Yeah that off-season set us back years.

 

Imagine if we had gotten Xavier Rhodes like literally everybody here wanted.

 

It's even the worse than that......

 

The other player fans here had a big man crush on was......    Hopkins, the Clemson WR that Texas took after we drafted Werner....

 

Either Hopkins or Nixon would've made a huge difference in our fortune in so many ways it's hard to count them all......

 

 

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1 hour ago, SP_21 said:

What are you talking about? I doubt I've mentioned the Pats before ever. It was just the team I used as an example because they are a consistently successful team. 

 

Why do you always have something negative say about my post? Is it possible for you to contribute to a conversation? I think  deep down you just want to whine. Just my observation. 

If and when you bring something that made sense in to discussion it would be a good thing.

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4 hours ago, SP_21 said:

I didn't follow football as closely then but seeing the end result I definitely agree. I'm just curious how other teams have fared. I looked at NE's drafts from 2012-2016 and they only had one good one IMO in '12 I believe. Obviously have no idea about their free agents during that span though. 

Patriots have been league average or above in drafted players still on the team every year since 2012, but that is only as far as the draft is concerned.  I never spent the time and looked at the free agent info for every team since it would take significantly longer than I would care to spend researching. 

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

T  H  I  S    B  A  D  ! ! ! !

 

Now that Thornton is the only draft pick remaining from the class, I figured I'd do a post-mortem. We already know that this offseason didn't have the lasting results everyone hoped it would, but piece by piece, it's really bad.

...

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I've defended the staff more than most, and I've been called some interesting things as a result -- homer, Pollyanna, whatever. I'm not at all anti-Grigson or anti-Pagano, and I hope they do well because they run MY team. But if you ever wonder why they lost so many fans after what seemed like an unprecedented get-off in 2012, the results of the 2013 offseason -- long term -- should explain it for you.

 

GO COLTS!!!

 

After the cut of Holmes, I was thinking that the 2013 draft was pretty bad, but here you come and just rub it in, Superman! haha It was actually not just bad, it was a disaster! :facepalm: :scorebad:

 

 What the heck went wrong? In the start of that year, Tom Telesco, vice president of football operations, left, and maybe that left the scouting operations in a bit of a havoc? Pagano was probably still recovery mentally and not fully into scouting D players, Adrian left. A bit of chaos and an underwhelming draft class overall looming.

 

There is no question that the 2013 off season is something that still mares the FO and that they are acutely aware of the implied setback of it, but they haves taken strides to clean up the mess IMO. Too early to evaluate this draft, but overall I for one like the new direction of this off season. 

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4 hours ago, BOTT said:

Ouch!

Off topic: BOTT, is your new Miley Cyrus tongue profile picture trying to compete with Gene Simmons for the longest tongue pose or something? :D

 

Or are you just paying tribute to both her career & song called "Wrecking Ball?" Did you lose a bet? Just curious.

 

Okay, back on topic. Sorry for the detour folks. 

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6 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

Off topic: BOTT, is your new Miley Cyrus tongue profile picture trying to compete with Gene Simmons for the longest tongue pose or something? :D

 

Or are you just paying tribute to both her career & song called "Wrecking Ball?" Did you lose a bet? Just curious.

 

Okay, back on topic. Sorry for the detour folks. 

Asking the real questions right here!! Have to admit I was also wondering if he lost a bet or something, as it happened shortly after the draft. 

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6 hours ago, Superman said:

Bjoern Werner -- Gone after three years, 6.5 sacks, and a notable cluster of healthy inactives for a team with little pass rush. I think he would have been an adequate Sam, but that ship has sailed. Ugh. D

Yeah, I was kind of shocked what an epic miss this international pick was. Andrew Luck lost someone to try out his childhood German on man. 

 

Superman is right though. Werner just came up short. If you can't play or improve fast enough after a few years, you're gone no matter how many languages you speak. 

 

I know he played ball for the Seminoles at Florida State in college, but I didn't expect the man to disappear on the NFL stage I guess. 

 

Plus, his name Bjorn was tailor made for Star Trek Borg jokes too. Just saying. 

 

I hope he's doing okay. The NFL can chew guys up & spit them out pretty harshly in some cases. 

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27 minutes ago, SaturdayAllDay said:

Asking the real questions right here!! Have to admit I was also wondering if he lost a bet or something, as it happened shortly after the draft. 

lmao Knowing BOTT, he might have just picked a new avatar for sheer shock value too. Just to make people raise an eyebrow & do a double take SAD. BOTT is a cool guy who is impossible to forget. That's not a slam, but a complement BTW. 

 

Glad I wasn't the only one to notice a change in BOTT's visual call sign there. That's why you never want to degrade a rival too much or at least establish reasonable humiliation rules for the loser of a bet who draws the shortest straw. 

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Reading this recap really is frustrating when you consider the opportunities missed. The Werner pick was the killer, I remember that Dustin (correctly) at the time pointed out his lack of explosive athleticism, it does make you wonder why he was rated so highly on teams' boards. Laugh in hindsight if you will but there were mocks out there putting him in the top 5! 

 

Holmes/Hughes/Thornton I'm a little more forgiving on as there was certainly potential there. Holmes never seemed to be 100% fit during his time here, but even then as Superman said, there was no competition really for the C job. Well aside from that dog and pony show of Grigson wanting Harrison to start... 

 

Thornton could still be a success story, especially if the offseason fluff pieces about him slimming are credible I do think he could be very good in a more ZBS. Hughes had flashes but never lived up to his physical tools. That seems to be the overriding issue with this FO, taking players who have the physical tools but need coaching up... but we've been terrible at coaching players. Maybe that changes with the wholesale coaching changes. I do think this is the first season we get to see a true Pagano staff. There better be some improvement as we've taken players again this year that are raw and need refining (Green and Ridgeway IMO). 

 

The FA moves I think are easy to criticise with the benefit of hindsight. Cherilus you can question given his knee condition and the amount paid to him. It smacks of a knee jerk move to try and throw money at the O-line to fix it. Same with Thomas, but I think we were very unlucky with his injuries. Again though when you look at RJF/Toler it's like we're trying to find talent through trial and error. Of course this isn't the case but it does make you question the quality of player evaluation. 

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

...

Again though when you look at RJF/Toler it's like we're trying to find talent through trial and error. Of course this isn't the case but it does make you question the quality of player evaluation. 

 

 

 

 

I actually think it was pretty much a trial and error back then in the off season 2013. I think there was a lot of hoping that those players would work out, but the FO was trying to rebuild the team in record time and there was a lot of short term and very little long term thinking going on.

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@Superman You and I have had a lot of arguments over the 2013 off-season. I Wish I was writing about how it was much better than I thought it was.

 

It was the year I labeled Grigson a GM who likes to swing for the fences.

 

Grigson has taken a lot of chances with players. Last year he started to play it a little safer. This year, he played it very safe. His draft's are improving because he is taking fewer chances with each pick.

 

I believe Grigson is starting to realize that we don't need for every player to be a home run. We just need each player to be a good fit in our system. He is learning a lot of lessons the hard way, but he does have some talent. The last two draft's have shown us that.

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When Irsay made the switch from Polian to Grigs Pagano, he envied the teams that beat the Manning-led Colts teams in the playoffs...th Chargers and the Steelers.  He publically stated that he wanted the Colts to be modeled after those teams...early 2000's type of teams.  That model was the power-man OL scheme..complete w/fullback rostered...and a fatty 34 defense.

 

Part of the lack of success with those players is that they were put into a system that was also outdated...the NFL has moved mainly away from those schemes into a more athletic type of system.

 

Marginal players combined with an outdated system, IMO, exacerbated the failures.  Some of that rests on Irsay and the direction he told his GM and staff to go.

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11 hours ago, bravo4460 said:

That year really did put the team behind. That year was a very important year as well and the F.O. Obviously blew it! We were stuck trying to make up for it for the next 2 or 3 seasons!

 

I think the front office learned some lessons that year in the draft.

Hope so, but I'm not so sure. In this 2016 draft, Grigson said taking Ryan Kelly "went against his gut". There's the problem, he was using his gut when he should have been using his head. Maybe he has no choice.

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2 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

@Superman You and I have had a lot of arguments over the 2013 off-season. I Wish I was writing about how it was much better than I thought it was.

 

It was the year I labeled Grigson a GM who likes to swing for the fences.

 

Grigson has taken a lot of chances with players. Last year he started to play it a little safer. This year, he played it very safe. His draft's are improving because he is taking fewer chances with each pick.

 

I believe Grigson is starting to realize that we don't need for every player to be a home run. We just need each player to be a good fit in our system. He is learning a lot of lessons the hard way, but he does have some talent. The last two draft's have shown us that.

 

Every once in a while, the inner Matt Millen comes out of Ryan Grigson and he makes a "cutesie" pick, I feel, trying to be different and thinking outside the box. However, he has balanced it out with safer picks thus showing us he is learning lessons the hard way.

 

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9 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Hope so, but I'm not so sure. In this 2016 draft, Grigson said taking Ryan Kelly "went against his gut". There's the problem, he was using his gut when he should have been using his head. Maybe he has no choice.

 

To me, the guys whose draft picks line up with value/need combo and quality of player and close enough to projections is Ozzie Newsome. The next guy would be Ted Thompson and I hate to say it, John Elway is not far behind with hitting with his draft picks though his sample size is smaller but the results are hard to argue, same could be said about the Seattle GM.

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8 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Hope so, but I'm not so sure. In this 2016 draft, Grigson said taking Ryan Kelly "went against his gut". There's the problem, he was using his gut when he should have been using his head. Maybe he has no choice.

I guess that what happens when you are not a long time GM. I seem to remember a few other GMs who have hit and miss years but that don't fit into bringing the negativity on Grigson. There is no such a thing as a perfect GM in the NFL.

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5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

To me, the guys whose draft picks line up with value/need combo and quality of player and close enough to projections is Ozzie Newsome. The next guy would be Ted Thompson and I hate to say it, John Elway is not far behind with hitting with his draft picks though his sample size is smaller but the results are hard to argue, same could be said about the Seattle GM.

 You mention three GMs out of 32 that have years of experience over Grigson. But what the heck, lets judge Grigson ??

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22 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Every once in a while, the inner Matt Miller comes out of Ryan Grigson and he makes a "cutesie" pick, I feel, trying to be different and thinking outside the box. However, he has balanced it out with safer picks thus showing us he is learning lessons the hard way.

 

 

I agree. I believe when he realizes that his "safe" picks, are the best picks, then he will become the master of his own domain. There is no doubt that he has a lot of scouting talent. He just needs to find more reasons to take players off his board; instead of trying to keep them on the board.

 

He knows the red flags, and the track record associated with players he has drafted. His swings and misses come from drafting players with off the field issues, over-drafting measurable's, drafting potential over a players want-to and desire to play football, not placing enough value on college production, and so on.

 

Many people are going to hate me when I say this, but Grigson needs to become more consistent in his philosophy; more like Bill Polian was. In that type of role, it is good to be consistent. Sure; he will pass on the next Randy Moss. But he will never swing and miss on another Trent Richardson. I think Grigson has what it takes to be an outstanding GM. It is an honor to watch him (participate from a distance) throughout his struggles and successes. I have learned a lot too.

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This was the start of Colts taking a step back in terms of roster development. A terrible draft, followed by a terrible FA. The trades for Montori Hughes and Richardson also cost us a 1st and a 4th the following draft, leaving us with only 5 draft picks for the 2014 draft.

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11 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I agree. I believe when he realizes that his "safe" picks, are the best picks, then he will become the master of his own domain. There is no doubt that he has a lot of scouting talent. He just needs to find more reasons to take players off his board; instead of trying to keep them on the board.

 

He knows the red flags, and the track record associated with players he has drafted. His swings and misses come from drafting players with off the field issues, over-drafting measurable's, drafting potential over a players want-to and desire to play football, not placing enough value on college production, and so on.

 

Many people are going to hate me when I say this, but Grigson needs to become more consistent; more like Bill Polian was. In that type of role, it is a good thing to consistent. Sure; he will pass on the next Randy Moss. But he will never swing and miss on another Trent Richardson. I think Grigson has what it takes to be an outstanding GM. It is an honor to watch him (participate from a distance) throughout his struggles and successes. I have learned a lot too.

 

This is over blown and exaggerated heavily. 

 

He can still try the players that are projects and go with his usual style. I think the lesson he learned wasnt that the safe pick is the best pick but you can't make any off wall picks until you have your foundation players (oline and Dline). So he took a page out of general drafting and went trenches. I like it because if Kelly/ clark/ Ridgeway all work out to be start potential impact players then he can go right back to his style of drafting and hopefully hit that "randy moss" pick.  Imo

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12 hours ago, bravo4460 said:

That year really did put the team behind. That year was a very important year as well and the F.O. Obviously blew it! We were stuck trying to make up for it for the next 2 or 3 seasons!

 

I think the front office learned some lessons that year in the draft.

I think the FO realized that all the great press they read about themselves from 2012 had zero relevance to future success.  Sort of like lucking out on a stock pick doesn't make you a successful stock broker.  It seems to be that the best 2 moves Grigson has ever made was TY Hilton and trading for Davis.  Anderson had the makings of the 3rd, but got hurt.  I think 2012 led them to coast on what they thought were brilliant instincts they had in 2013 and they have gotten spanked.  I hope Thornton doesn't make the team, not because I don't like him (I actually felt he was the only good pick that year) but because I hope these 4 new guys take his job (and Harrison's who I am saddened to see still on the team, making me think he must have some pretty damning photos of Grigson hidden somewhere...).

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2013 was a disaster for us and from what I'm reading bad for the league as well.  There are a huge number of 1st. round draft choices that did not have their 5th. year option taken which pretty much says there were a miss.  Other 1st. rounders no longer on the team including our own Bjorn Werner.   Goes to show you how difficult the draft can be. " Sometimes you need a little Luck."

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