Colts select Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama

[Jackie Daytona]

1 minute ago, ClaytonColt said:

No, individual players are subject to the normal variables over time.  That's completely different. 

 

The point that of the last 15? 20? Superbowl teams there's been not 1st round center present is a decent sample size and also an indication that players in that position can be selected in lower rounds and still contribute to a greater level to a successful team.

 

I don't see the issue with that. It a completely fair position based on how other successful teams are built.

Agreed, I just don't see the argument some are basically making that since no first round centers have won a SB, that taking Kelly somehow prevents us from winning one....  There's firsts on every SB winning team, every year if you look hard enough.....   good response by you by the way.  I'm just testy because some were so overtly disappointed in the pick immediately..... Can never judge a pick so soon.

[DougDew]

None of the defensive players available at 18 will be pro bowlers anytime soon.  Grigson didn't miss out on any one special.  Good players, yes.  Special, no.

 

The player most likely to be special at their position is probably Kelly.  And special centers can make a difference in the play of the entire Oline.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, ClaytonColt said:

No, individual players are subject to the normal variables over time.  That's completely different. 

 

The point that of the last 15? 20? Superbowl teams there's been not 1st round center present is a decent sample size and also an indication that players in that position can be selected in lower rounds and still contribute to a greater level to a successful team.

 

I don't see the issue with that. It a completely fair position based on how other successful teams are built.

Here's the problem with trying to copy other teams draft blueprints for the SB. You won't find exact clones of their players in other drafts. Each individual player is different. We have our franchise QB in Luck, that's the most important thing. The key now is to find the best players to build around him. There is no Von Miller in this draft, there is no Aaron Donald we could of got, Myles Jack was a sucker pick in the 1st round and won't last more than 5 years in the league. You build a team based on BPA and what you can get to help your strengths and improve your weaknesses. Kelly was an excellent Center that appears maybe once every 5 years. The tackles were gone, he was the best pick at a huge position of need with all the injured players that were risks.

[Valpo2004]

1 hour ago, dw49 said:

 

Your correct that teams don't often opt for centers in the first round as it's only happned 6 times since 2000. However we have to consider the "Luck factor." Also there are some that think he might be the top guard in this class. And for the record all 6 of those first rounders have played in at least one pro bowl. But I hear you as 18 is no doubt high for a center if you want to consider where they are normally selected in drafts.

 

 

It may be worth mentioning that Ryan Kelly can also play either guard spot.  

 

Now I'm guessing that we're going to be playing him at center, because that's likely his best spot and it's a huge need for us.  But we could conceivably move him over to guard too.  

 

I really like this pick.

[Rhane19]

Anyone see the list of 1st round centers and what they have done in the NFL?

If it was posted earlier in this thread, I apologize for rehashing it, but I am not reading 10 pages worth of posts.

 

Hopefully Kelly can keep that trend going.  Keep in mind, Frederick was a 'reach' for the cowboys and only became one of the top centers within 2 years of being drafted.  Hope we can get some of that magic with Kelly as well.

[Myles]

I thought improving the O-line was a priority for nearly all fans of the Colts.    When did that change?

This pick will improve the O-line immediately and for years to come.   Since he can also play guard spots, this isn't taking a center.  It is taking an offensive lineman.   So the stigma of taking centers in the first doesn't apply.

 

[BrentMc11]

12 hours ago, LockeDown said:

That was my pick.  yahoo

You LockeDown that pick!!!  OK....ya gotta like that one....or NOT!!!  (OK I quit...)   

[ClaytonColt]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Here's the problem with trying to copy other teams draft blueprints for the SB. You won't find exact clones of their players in other drafts. Each individual player is different. We have our franchise QB in Luck, that's the most important thing. The key now is to find the best players to build around him. There is no Von Miller in this draft, there is no Aaron Donald we could of got, Myles Jack was a sucker pick in the 1st round and won't last more than 5 years in the league. You build a team based on BPA and what you can get to help your strengths and improve your weaknesses. Kelly was an excellent Center that appears maybe once every 5 years. The tackles were gone, he was the best pick at a huge position of need with all the injured players that were risks.

Once again. I agree.

 

If I was trying to follow 1 teams blueprint that would be folly.

 

I'm  not though. I'm saying that across multiple teams and multiple years 1st round centers have brought probowls but not contributed to superbowl. That's a simple fact and I don't see why people are getting so annoyed about stating that. 

 

Successful teams have generally used imagination and creativity in terms of recruitment to provide good center play. Going for the obvious hasn't previously  generated team success.

 

Kelly might be different but that doesn't stop me wishing that we'd followed the same path as multiple superbowl winners rather than multiple teams who have their feet up in January. 

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Rhane19 said:

Anyone see the list of 1st round centers and what they have done in the NFL?

If it was posted earlier in this thread, I apologize for rehashing it, but I am not reading 10 pages worth of posts.

 

Hopefully Kelly can keep that trend going.  Keep in mind, Frederick was a 'reach' for the cowboys and only became one of the top centers within 2 years of being drafted.  Hope we can get some of that magic with Kelly as well.

Fredrick was deemed a third round pick when the Cowboys took him in 2013 at 31 overall. That was supposed to be a massive reach, Kelly was a minor reach if anything and much better coming out of college.

[LockeDown]

3 minutes ago, BrentMc11 said:

You LockeDown that pick!!!  OK....ya gotta like that one....or NOT!!!  (OK I quit...)   

Haha.  I do like it.

[James]

1 hour ago, Dustin said:

 

Myles Jack

 

So, you're a fan of Greg Oden?

[Rhane19]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Fredrick was deemed a third round pick when the Cowboys took him in 2013 at 31 overall. That was supposed to be a massive reach, Kelly was a minor reach if anything and much better coming out of college.

 

Good point, forgot about the 3rd round grade Frederick had.

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

Once again. I agree.

 

If I was trying to follow 1 teams blueprint that would be folly.

 

I'm  not though. I'm saying that across multiple teams and multiple years 1st round centers have brought probowls but not contributed to superbowl. That's a simple fact and I don't see why people are getting so annoyed about stating that. 

 

Successful teams have generally used imagination and creativity in terms of recruitment to provide good center play. Going for the obvious hasn't previously  generated team success.

 

Kelly might be different but that doesn't stop me wishing that we'd followed the same path as multiple superbowl winners rather than multiple teams who have their feet up in January. 

I may of missed it, but who would you of taken? Only person that really makes sense is Lawson, but there are plenty of pass rushers left, so I don't think the drop off will be huge.

[Myles]

7 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

Once again. I agree.

 

If I was trying to follow 1 teams blueprint that would be folly.

 

I'm  not though. I'm saying that across multiple teams and multiple years 1st round centers have brought probowls but not contributed to superbowl. That's a simple fact and I don't see why people are getting so annoyed about stating that. 

 

Successful teams have generally used imagination and creativity in terms of recruitment to provide good center play. Going for the obvious hasn't previously  generated team success.

 

Kelly might be different but that doesn't stop me wishing that we'd followed the same path as multiple superbowl winners rather than multiple teams who have their feet up in January. 

Successful teams try to get the best players to help their teams.   Kelly will help the Colts.   Whether playing guard or center. 

 

The Colts needed a center.   They got the best one in the draft.   I can't argue against that.     Oh and one who can play multiple guard positions as well.

[Rhane19]

5 minutes ago, James said:

 

So, you're a fan of Greg Oden?

 

To be fair, Oden looked and had the knees of a 40+ yr old which was highlighted even more being 7foot. 

Jack actually looks appropriately aged.

 

But I do like the point you are making, big risk on someone with knee injury history

[BProland85]

I'm still trying to see what Kelly's ceiling might be. Before the draft he was thought of as a 2nd round pick. Is he really one of the best centers in the past couple of drafts like Mike Mayok stated? 

[dw49]

16 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

It may be worth mentioning that Ryan Kelly can also play either guard spot.  

 

Now I'm guessing that we're going to be playing him at center, because that's likely his best spot and it's a huge need for us.  But we could conceivably move him over to guard too.  

 

I really like this pick.

 

I do too. Plus I think Lawson is more of a 4-3 guy. 

[bababooey]

3 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

I'm still trying to see what Kelly's ceiling might be. Before the draft he was thought of as a 2nd round pick. Is he really one of the best centers in the past couple of drafts like Mike Mayok stated? 

Kiper said he has an extremely high ceiling on espn insider article. He's giving us credit where credit is due, we are one of three teams he specifically put in his article of picks he loved.

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, Rhane19 said:

 

To be fair, Oden looked and had the knees of a 40+ yr old which was highlighted even more being 7foot. 

Jack actually looks the appropriately aged.

 

But I do like the point you are making, big risk on someone with knee injury history

You are way off here, there is no risk to Jack, a risk has a possible big payoff, you know exactly what you are getting with Jack. He's a 3-5 year player that is like a 30 year old free agent. It's not if he will fall apart, it's when he will fall apart. You are drafting a 3-5 year rental trying to win a SB, and that's not worth it for us.

[GoColtsWin]

1 hour ago, VaAllDay757 said:

This is the best 1st round pick we had in some years.....it doesn't need to be a "sexy" pick it's the right pick we need to make the team better there are plenty of talented defensive players in this draft no need to jump the gun at all

^This

[ClaytonColt]

8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I may of missed it, but who would you of taken? Only person that really makes sense is Lawson, but there are plenty of pass rushers left, so I don't think the drop off will be huge.

Lawson would have been the main one since he dropped to us. I would also have considered Billings as I think he's makes our defensive line stronger.

 

It would definitely have been a defensive player though

[Yoshinator]

We may get Billings still. He was the guy I originally wanted, but seeing he is still there makes me think Kelly was definitely the right choice. Grigson does have interest in Billings, so he's not gone for us yet, still a small possibility. Lawson is very good, but there are lots of pass rushers left. Even if you believe Martin is close to Kelly, if he got taken before us in round 2 and we took Lawson in round 1, there are no other centers anywhere close to that quality to take. Spence, Correa, Dodd, and the others are in Lawsons range.

[SteelCityColt]

7 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

You are way off here, there is no risk to Jack, a risk has a possible big payoff, you know exactly what you are getting with Jack. He's a 3-5 year player that is like a 30 year old free agent. It's not if he will fall apart, it's when he will fall apart. You are drafting a 3-5 year rental trying to win a SB, and that's not worth it for us.

 

Hmm I don't think think this is 100% accurate, we've seen this type of injury affect players' abilities even if it hasn't ended the careers. We especially saw this first hand with Cherilus, and the Texans got bit with Clowney. 

 

Now I'm not saying it's gospel that Jack will be a similar case but to paint it as no risk isn't correct and I'd say 31 NFL Teams agree with that viewpoint. Remember too, they have much better access to medical advice and his medical records then we and the press do. 

[bababooey]

11 hours ago, nsurg said:

 

That makes sense... we only get a first round draft pick once a year, but there is no limit on how many people you are allowed to propose to.

Did your fiance go to an SEC school or have a good combine performance?

 no she did not, we got invited to the Giants season ticket draft party last night but didn't go, good thing because I saw video when they announced the pick. Her knowledge/reaction was "wow they got another Eli, and he plays in the Big Apple!"

[Yoshinator]

Microfracture surgery gives you degenerative knee joints and destroys them over time. That's a medical fact, it's not up for debate. Different people have different timeframes for how it affects them, but the damage is permanent, and I guarantee you it's a big reason why he didn't go in the first round. The team that does end up taking him will probably be a contending team trying to win a SB like the Pats who are willing to lose him after a few years if they win a title. The team that takes him also doesn't have have to risk a 1st rounder now.

3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Hmm I don't think think this is 100% accurate, we've seen this type of injury affect players' abilities even if it hasn't ended the careers. We especially saw this first hand with Cherilus, and the Texans got bit with Clowney. 

 

Now I'm not saying it's gospel that Jack will be a similar case but to paint it as no risk isn't correct and I'd say 31 NFL Teams agree with that viewpoint. Remember too, they have much better access to medical advice and his medical records then we and the press do. 

 

[SteelCityColt]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Microfracture surgery gives you degenerative knee joints and destroys them over time. That's a medical fact, it's not up for debate. Different people have different timeframes for how it affects them, but the damage is permanent, and I guarantee you it's a big reason why he didn't go in the first round. The team that does end up taking him will probably be a contending team trying to win a SB like the Pats who are willing to lose him after a few years if they win a title. The team that takes him also doesn't have have to risk a 1st rounder now.

 

 

To be pedantic he hasn't actually had surgery yet and it's been the admission alone he "might" need it. 

 

You've also missed out the point that players post surgery also have a history of not performing at the same level. Painting it as a no risk pick just isn't correct, no pick is without risk, but a player with this sort of injury concern is a much larger risk than most. 

 

[TheMarine]

This Kelly pick is the perfect intersection of where Need and BPA meet. Fact: We need interior help in a huge way. Fact: Kelly is BPA in the center of the line at the time of draft. Our O-Line needs more help than the D

[Jackie Daytona]

27 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I may of missed it, but who would you of taken? Only person that really makes sense is Lawson, but there are plenty of pass rushers left, so I don't think the drop off will be huge.

Lawson is not going to be a big time pass rusher in the league anyway, a big percentage of his sacks were cleanup sacks, such as Erik Walden gets.... Dude played across from Dodd, and Vic Beasley before that..... He wasn't ever Clemsons premier Pass rusher, but is a great edge setter and clean up guy from  the other side.... he gets sacks when QB's are flushed toward him a lot.

[BrentMc11]

9 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Fredrick was deemed a third round pick when the Cowboys took him in 2013 at 31 overall. That was supposed to be a massive reach, Kelly was a minor reach if anything and much better coming out of college.

We were talking about the linemen before that that draft (Big surprise right?") Most were talking about Fredrick at the guard position.  May have been Jay Kirk or Southwest1 (A true Badger :))  I mentioned that he was not GREAT at tackle and thought he would switch to guard.

 

When the combine came up his weight was significantly lower.  By that time we werer talking back and forth about his position was going to be center!!  Let me just say 1 thing, he was rated low as a tackle/guard.  I saw 78th or something else at his normal position.

 

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

To be pedantic he hasn't actually had surgery yet and it's been the admission alone he "might" need it. 

 

You've also missed out the point that players post surgery also have a history of not performing at the same level. Painting it as a no risk pick just isn't correct, no pick is without risk, but a player with this sort of injury concern is a much larger risk than most. 

 

You misunderstood me, when I say no risk, I don't mean the injury concern is no risk. It's a huge risk. I mean that when he most likely has the surgery, there is no risk because the results are very predictable. You get degenerative knee joints and it causes permanent damage over time that eats at your knees and will force you to retire. Risk is an unknown thing when you don't know what's wrong. Every team knows what's wrong with him and knows he won't make it past his first contract.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, BrentMc11 said:

We were talking about the linemen before that that draft (Big surprise right?") Most were talking about Fredrick at the guard position.  May have been Jay Kirk or Southwest1 (A true Badger :))  I mentioned that he was not GREAT at tackle and thought he would switch to guard.

 

When the combine came up his weight was significantly lower.  By that time we werer talking back and forth about his position was going to be center!!  Let me just say 1 thing, he was rated low as a tackle/guard.  I saw 78th or something else at his normal position.

 

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He definitely became a great Center. He's an example of switching positions in the NFL and making the most of it. Kelly seems like he's already a great Center, and he can play Center or Guard. Hopefully he plays Center his entire Career and Lucks!

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, TheMarine said:

This Kelly pick is the perfect intersection of where Need and BPA meet. Fact: We need interior help in a huge way. Fact: Kelly is BPA in the center of the line at the time of draft. Our O-Line needs more help than the D

This explains it in a nutshell, nice job!

[SteelCityColt]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

You misunderstood me, when I say no risk, I don't mean the injury concern is no risk. It's a huge risk. I mean that when he most likely has the surgery, there is no risk because the results are very predictable. You get degenerative knee joints and it causes permanent damage over time that eats at your knees and will force you to retire. Risk is an unknown thing when you don't know what's wrong. Every team knows what's wrong with him and knows he won't make it past his first contract.

 

No I understand you.. You're failing to acknowledge that there is now history of players have performance drops offs from the off after the procedure and it varies from player to player. Factor in that he's a draftee with no NFL resume and it's already a bit of a crap shoot when it comes to evaluating him and you can see why teams are steering away. 

 

All picks are a risk, an injury like this increases the variance on how he will perform at the NFL level, thus the risk is increased. So yeah it's very fair to see it's too big a risk to use a 1st rounder on him. A 2nd rounder?? I guess we'll see. 

[chad hugo]

I'm hyped ! Would you guys be interested in a awesome kelly wallpaper ? 

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

No I understand you.. You're failing to acknowledge that there is now history of players have performance drops offs from the off after the procedure and it varies from player to player. Factor in that he's a draftee with no NFL resume and it's already a bit of a crap shoot when it comes to evaluating him and you can see why teams are steering away. 

 

All picks are a risk, an injury like this increases the variance on how he will perform at the NFL level, thus the risk is increased. So yeah it's very fair to see it's too big a risk to use a 1st rounder on him. A 2nd rounder?? I guess we'll see. 

I think we agree on this basically. I don't disagree with anything you say, so there's nothing to debate here. I would probably take him in the third if I were us, but I don't think he'll last that far. The talent still on the board is so good. I'd rather get Spence or Ragland at this point.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, chad hugo said:

I'm hyped ! Would you guys be interested in a awesome kelly wallpaper ? 

That would be cool, I'd love it!

[chad hugo]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That would be cool, I'd love it!

 

Great! Working on it as we speak ! 

[chad hugo]

found this on twitter...lol 

 

 

[Yoshinator]

Just now, chad hugo said:

found this on twitter...lol 

 

https://twitter.com/coreymccrack3n/status/725871264670195712/photo/1

Awesome, thanks a lot!

[crazycolt1]

2 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

Go on. Name me one other thing I've complained about.

If you count yourself as one of the most as I mentioned, then that is on you. It don't matter at this point anyway. The pick was made, 90% of Colt fans are happy with it. It also seems the so called draft guru's are happy with the pick. So now all that is left to do is whine about it because it's over and done. Talking about what might have been serves no purpose at this point.