Breakdown of Eastern Kentucky EDGE Noah Spence

[Dustin]

 

2015 Breakdowns:

 

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

Emmanuel Ogbah, EDGE, Oklahoma State

Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson

 

Size: Spence is 6'2" 254 lbs. Basic size for an edge-rushing OLB. 4-3 teams would probably prefer more length, meaning he'll be more attractive o the 3-4 teams. (4/5)

 

Athleticism: Spence has great speed around the edge and possess a nice up the field burst. Quick-twitch player able to avoid blocks in traffic and cut-blocks. Good hip and ankle flexibility to give OTs fits on speed rushes. Spence plays with absolutely relentless motor; often being able to make 2nd and 3rd attempts on QBs and runners. Spence lacks elite strength at the point of attack and can get blocked out by bigger offensive-tackles. Speed to power is just above average. Change of direction is good, not great. (7.5/10)

 

Hand Usage: His hand usage is much better pass rushing than it as on running plays. But not particularly great at either. He doesn't seem to lack hand strength so it's really just something that will have to be coached into him (5/10)

 

Pass Rush Moves: Doesn't very much. Like most athletic pass rushers he prefers the speed moves around the edge with a little rip every now and then. Can get ran up the field if he doesn't win with his initial move. Really disappointing he got kicked off of Ohio State, because I think another year of development at a real school would have him a lot further along technically then where he is at now. You'd like to see a few counter-moves thrown in as often times OTs over-correct to account for his speed. (6/10)

 

Run Defense: Not an incredibly strong player who's going to anchor the front for you, but Spence is surprisingly good at reading running plays and picking lanes to fill. That awareness, combined with his relentless effort makes him an already pretty decent run defender. Not the type of player to blow up the whole play, but the type of player who fills lanes which allows other players to make the tackle. (7/10)

 

Misc. Technical: Noah is a pretty conservative player on read-option/play-action type plays, preferring to stay at home instead of risking the big play from the offense. If we do draft him, his effort will be a breath of fresh air compared to the passive Bjoern Werner. Snap anticipation is average. (3.5/5)

 

Tackling: Gets low; wraps up. Not much more you could ask for. (5/5)

 

Versatility: Spence is pretty clearly limited to a rush LB spot in a 3-4 or in a 4-3 over front. Bacially no coverage snaps that I saw. Can play with his hand in the dirt in obvious pass situations, but i don't think any 4-3 teams are going to overthink this one. (2.5/5)

 

GIFs (gif machine is giving me trouble so sorry for so few): 

 

Strip-sack on a speed rush: https://zippy.gfycat.com/SecondaryHatefulArcticfox.webm

 

Beats Jack Conklin for a near sack and tackles the runner: https://fat.gfycat.com/UnitedAcceptableAsianconstablebutterfly.webm

 

Watch his hands on a different angle: https://zippy.gfycat.com/JointFastEastsiberianlaika.webm

 

Conclusion: 

 

40.5 out of 60 which is a mid-1st round pick. 

 

Spence is an athletic, high-effort player who's probably the highest upside player in the draft. In my opinion, his floor is that of a good pass rusher with a ceiling of Von Miller or Khalil Mack. His inherent risk and limit to the 3-4 teams will likely mean he'll be available at 18 if the Colts want him. I could see Spence becoming a 12 sack a year player in the NFL.

 

NFL Comparison: Elvis Dumervil, BAL

[Defjamz26]

Now how do you feel about the character concerns personally? I would be cautious because he'll have millions of dollars in the NFL and could go right back to ecstasy. I know many have said he cleaned up his act, but Manziel also convinced some people he was "better"....TWICE!

[Dustin]

1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

Now how do you feel about the character concerns personally? I would be cautious because he'll have millions of dollars in the NFL and could go right back to ecstasy. I know many have said he cleaned up his act, but Manziel also convinced some people he was "better"....TWICE!

 

I don't have the info to really know, but as far as I can find he's been clean since his ban so I don't really view it as that much of a red flag. All this info coming out about Manziel at TAMU just proves that the Browns either didn't due their due dilligence of didn't really care. I don't really view this as the same situation. Spence seems to have learned from his mistakes a d has put forth every effort to stay clean. 

[PeterBowman]

4 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Now how do you feel about the character concerns personally? I would be cautious because he'll have millions of dollars in the NFL and could go right back to ecstasy. I know many have said he cleaned up his act, but Manziel also convinced some people he was "better"....TWICE!

This is the million dollar question.....if he's truly cleaned up then it'll be very hard not to pull the trigger at 18.

[Defjamz26]

7 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

I don't have the info to really know, but as far as I can find he's been clean since his ban so I don't really view it as that much of a red flag. All this info coming out about Manziel at TAMU just proves that the Browns either didn't due their due dilligence of didn't really care. I don't really view this as the same situation. Spence seems to have learned from his mistakes a d has put forth every effort to stay clean. 

My point with Manziel is that we always here about the guy who has cleaned up his act.

 

I'm sure his camp is constantly going to push that on people but IDK. I read the story and wasn't really sure. He admitted that he lied about it for awhile and made his friends and family believe that someone must have slipped something in his drink until he came clean.

 

I'm just not really convinced yet.

[wig]

20 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

This is the million dollar question.....if he's truly cleaned up then it'll be very hard not to pull the trigger at 18.

 

He's been clean, as he had voluntary drug tests for the last two years.  I'd also be more concerned if his issues were for something aside from ecstacy.  Not a lot of long-term addiction issues with it.

[DaColts85]

He has done random drug screens and erased a few friends from his circle to make football a priority.  You always hope that they can stay on the right path when they see those pay checks but who knows.  Thats why a strong locker room is important as well.  He will have Mathis right there with him and some great vets.

 

Manziel was a different story.  He never truly changed or had to.  He was a silver spoon kid who never had to worry about money.  Getting dropped from a team with no money is not going to hurt him like others so he clearly shows no remorse with previous and current decisions.  

[krunk]

I read that he was addicted to ecstacy like more than just an occasional user when he used it.  Anyway I'm not going to stay on that tip too long.  When I look at him he kind of reminds me of Demarcus Ware more than the diminutive Dumerville.  Both good players though, and if Grigs is okay with the background I wouldn't have a huge problem with the pick.  Now if Lawson is on the board at the time then Grigs might go his direction instead I think .

[COLTS449]

We have to get him at 18. Noah Spence or bust at 18. I've tried to like Floyd and Ogbah, and I do, but they aren't Noah Spence. Noah Spence is going to put up 10 plus sacks every season and be a dominant EDGE rusher.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, COLTS449 said:

We have to get him at 18. Noah Spence or bust at 18. I've tried to like Floyd and Ogbah, and I do, but they aren't Noah Spence. Noah Spence is going to put up 10 plus sacks every season and be a dominant EDGE rusher.

I'm not as hot on Ogbah(in our system)either. I'd say Lawson and Smith are the only other 2 pass rushers I would consider at 18. I've watched Spence and he is a good pass rusher but the character issues are reason for pause.

 

Plus IDK if Grigson can afford to risk it. After Werner and Richardson, he needs to get a sure thing in the 1st round.

[COLTS449]

45 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I'm not as hot on Ogbah(in our system)either. I'd say Lawson and Smith are the only other 2 pass rushers I would consider at 18. I've watched Spence and he is a good pass rusher but the character issues are reason for pause.

 

Plus IDK if Grigson can afford to risk it. After Werner and Richardson, he needs to get a sure thing in the 1st round.

 

I think Spence is as close to a sure thing as there is at 18. I'm not concerned with the ecstasy thing. It seems like he was just young and immature and liked to party a little too much, and that led to him having a little problem with ecstasy. He's been clean the entire time at EKU, passed every drug test and he has grown up and straightened out. He was just like a lot of other young kids. He made some stupid mistakes and learned from them. I don't think there's any way he messes up his NFL career by getting back on ecstasy. If he had been hooked on opiates I would be very concerned about a "relapse" but I think he's a safe pick.

[Archer]

Spence is my fondest wish at #18, but I really don't think he'll be there.  Going back to the drawing board should net us a CB, IMHO.

[jskinnz]

I am curious how Grigson & company will judge a player like Spence with his history.  Recent attempts to get talent from guys who had checkered pasts have proven that it is hard to get the knucklehead out of a knucklehead - Da'rick Rogers, Andrew Jackson, Purifoy & Lavon Brazill just to name a few.  And those guys were not the investments that a high pick like Spence would be.  

 

His interviews at the combine will be crucial - for him and interested teams.

[Superman]

23 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

I am curious how Grigson & company will judge a player like Spence with his history.  Recent attempts to get talent from guys who had checkered pasts have proven that it is hard to get the knucklehead out of a knucklehead - Da'rick Rogers, Andrew Jackson, Purifoy & Lavon Brazill just to name a few.  And those guys were not the investments that a high pick like Spence would be.  

 

His interviews at the combine will be crucial - for him and interested teams.

 

None of those guys were as good as Spence. There are players who have enough talent to offset their off field issues. He's probably one of them. Those other guys were late rounders and UDFAs because they didn't have the talent.

 

But, like you say, using a first rounder on a guy with issues represents an entirely different kind of risk. To me, you have to be convinced that the issues are definitely resolved, in the past, not lingering, etc. Because Spence has been clean for a couple years now, I can see the Colts being okay with him. But that's a decision they would take very seriously.

[twfish]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

I am curious how Grigson & company will judge a player like Spence with his history.  Recent attempts to get talent from guys who had checkered pasts have proven that it is hard to get the knucklehead out of a knucklehead - Da'rick Rogers, Andrew Jackson, Purifoy & Lavon Brazill just to name a few.  And those guys were not the investments that a high pick like Spence would be.  

 

His interviews at the combine will be crucial - for him and interested teams.

Dang I forgot all about or 7th president, still a shame about Brazil and Rodgers they really did have some talent

[DougDew]

I know nothing about ecstasy, other than it tends to be a drug for the younger folks, not that pot or coke or other things aren't.  Perhaps there aren't may adult circles that use ecstasy, meaning it might be easier for Spence to grow out of its lure and say clean, unlike other drugs that have much more of an adult following.

[JetLife_XCVI]

The kid is going to be a powerhouse. Remind me so much of Von Miller or a younger Robert Mathis with his block shedding abilities and knack for going for the football at all times. Von Miller had a few questionable things going on in his past too, now look at him. He's a Super Bowl champion and MVP.

[Defjamz26]

16 hours ago, jskinnz said:

I am curious how Grigson & company will judge a player like Spence with his history.  Recent attempts to get talent from guys who had checkered pasts have proven that it is hard to get the knucklehead out of a knucklehead - Da'rick Rogers, Andrew Jackson, Purifoy & Lavon Brazill just to name a few.  And those guys were not the investments that a high pick like Spence would be.  

 

His interviews at the combine will be crucial - for him and interested teams.

I also remember saying that guys with character issues aren't a consideration for them in the first 3 rounds.

 

It would take a lot from Spence to make them break their own rule. He's going to have to blow them away with interviews. I wonder if they spoke with him at the Senior Bowl though.

[NewColtsFan]

On February 10, 2016 at 8:28 AM, Defjamz26 said:

My point with Manziel is that we always here about the guy who has cleaned up his act.

 

I'm sure his camp is constantly going to push that on people but IDK. I read the story and wasn't really sure. He admitted that he lied about it for awhile and made his friends and family believe that someone must have slipped something in his drink until he came clean.

 

I'm just not really convinced yet.

 

The difference between Manziel and Spence is that Spence has been clean for two years now.  

 

He's taken full responsibility for his actions.     He has insisted on constant drug tests and passed all of them.

 

Manuel did none of that.      They don't have as much as in common as some might think.

 

Is there are guarantee that Spence stays clean his whole career?      No.      This is a calculated risk, but NFL teams will do extensive background checks on him to try and predict his future.....