Manning/Brady Playoff Support

[bababooey]

Bill Barnwell just included this study in his post-SB article (which I will share soon). It explains how Manning/Brady are the same statistically in the playoffs (we've all seen the side by side stats). It was posted before the Super Bowl so it does not include that game. Seeing a Patriots fan write that Peyton is the greatest quarterback of all time makes sense after reading this article.

 

Quote

To my surprise, Brady has had slightly negative support over his entire playoff career. Not surprisingly, Manning’s support has been even worse, saddling him with roughly a one field goal disadvantage per game compared to Brady. This becomes even more stark when we look at games with positive support vs. games with negative support. In 31 playoff games, Brady has enjoyed positive support 16 times (52%). Meanwhile, Manning has benefitted from positive support in only eight of his 26 playoff appearances (31%). These numbers alone explain most of the difference in their W/L records.

Given the relatively equal performances of Brady and Manning in the playoffs, how did the narratives surrounding these two men become so drastically different? The answer: timing. Brady has been extremely fortunate to have his most help come at the beginning of his career, the time when narratives are born and cemented. Manning has suffered very unlucky timing, with his teams providing him very little support in the early years of his playoff career.

Despite owning an unblemished 9-0 playoff record and three SB rings, Brady had actually been slightly outplayed by Manning in the playoffs through the 2004 season! How can that be, given that Brady was/is a clutch hero and Manning had already perfected the art of choking? Well, it turns out Brady’s teammates were clutch and Manning’s teammates were chokers. Brady’s teams gave him a healthy +4.93 EPA/G of support during his magical 9-0 playoff start, while Manning’s teams stumbled to a dreadful -9.42 EPA/G of “support.” That’s right – through 2004, Brady’s teammates provided him a two touchdown per game advantage over Manning’s in the playoffs. Brady had positive support in seven out of nine games, while Manning had positive support in only two out of eight contests. In fact, Manning actually suffered poorer support during his three wins than in his five losses! This includes his famous 2003 win over the Chiefs in which neither team punted and Dante Hall was in full human joystick mode. Of course, nobody cared about seeing the whole picture, so W/L records and ringz were all that mattered. The narratives were set in stone: Brady is clutch, Manning is a choker.

Beginning in 2005, the playoff records of Brady and Manning have basically evened out. Why? Their supporting casts have provided them roughly equal amounts of help. Manning has actually benefitted from slightly more support overall since 2005, and significantly more help in his wins. However, most of Manning’s help was concentrated in a handful of games, so he still suffered negative support in 12 of his last 18 playoff games. Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl run was very reminiscent of Brady’s in 2001, in that both QB’s had mediocre performances and were carried to the championship by their teammates. Unfortunately for Manning, his choker label had already been cast, so one ring (against Rex Grossman!) did little to change most peoples’ perception of him.

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-brady-vs-manning-and-playoff-support/

[bluebombers87]

Really interesting read. I especially liked the part where he talks about timing and the casting of labels.

 

Of course Pats fans will undoubtedly burn this mans house down.

[bababooey]

1 hour ago, bluebombers87 said:

Really interesting read. I especially liked the part where he talks about timing and the casting of labels.

 

Of course Pats fans will undoubtedly burn this mans house down.

Numbers don't lie.

[jvan1973]

Just now, bababooey said:

Numbers don't lie.

Funny.  Not many pats fans around here lately

[jet1968]

5 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Funny.  Not many pats fans around here lately

They are in winter training camp preparing themselves for next year.

[bababooey]

22 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Funny.  Not many pats fans around here lately

It has honestly been so much more pleasant. Still can't believe the Colts season from hell and the Patriots kill everyone tour ended with Manning riding off into the sunset as a SB champ.

 

Imagine if Osweiler doesn't need to get replaced in week 17 with the 1 seed on the line? Or if Peyton comes in but can't get them the lead back? Or if NE doesn't lose to MIAMI in week 17? Absolutely nuts the events that happened that week to lead to here.

[chad72]

It shows me that Brady is not miles ahead of Peyton and his 9-0 start gave him a lot of equity in public and media perception. However, it still does not change the fact that Brady commits far fewer turnovers when compared to Peyton while attempting throws in the playoffs. 

[bababooey]

24 minutes ago, chad72 said:

It shows me that Brady is not miles ahead of Peyton and his 9-0 start gave him a lot of equity in public and media perception. However, it still does not change the fact that Brady commits far fewer turnovers when compared to Peyton while attempting throws in the playoffs. 

Brady is not playing from behind as often, and their offense has always been more balanced with exceptions like 2007 and other select playoff games when they were behind like Ravens and Seattle last year. When Peyton has to throw the ball that many more times he's gonna have more picks and when Brady is winning he is killing clock more.