The #1 Qb Bust Syndrome

[Restored]

For someone who makes logical sense I would think you would see the major problem of having both on the roster....

What? Money? Please don't get me started on those man. If we have Luck and Manning together on the roster next year, we will essentially be doing the same thing this year with what we did with Collins, only this time Luck inplace of Collins would be an investment for the long-term instead of 1 year bench warmer.

[jskinnz]

1) Is the bust probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

Put it another way...

2) Is the success probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

3) If the Colts decide to trade the #1 overall pick, and receive multiple picks in return, shouldn't they pick a 4th or 5th round QB, or is Orlavsky/Painter/Collins the acceptable backup plan?

4) If Peyton seems healthy on March 8, but gets injured in the first game, such that his is out for the rest of the year, what do you think will be the season's W-L record with the backup plan you chose?

I would appreciate your thoughts.

The bust questions I don't care about. If Luck or RG3 is determined to be the guy, you take the pick and don't worry about him being a bust.

3) I think it has been determined that the Orlovsky and Painter combo is not an acceptable back up plan

4) If Peyton is healty March 8, gets his bonus and then gets a season ender in game # 1 that eventually leads to his calling it a career, his 2013 cap hit would be $28 million, which is completely unreasonable.

I think the Colts and Manning will be parting ways.

[Smonroe]

What u said makes 0 sense.

all the negative analysis comes AFTER someone became a bust. When these players were drafted it was all positive.

If Luck becomes a bust there will be a book published on all the negative analysis behind him.

No, I meant what I said. You can go back to articles written about every one of those players prior to them being drafted and you will find someone critiquing some part of their game. Some were system QBs, some had obvious flaws and bad games.

I haven't read anything bad about Luck.

You are correct in saying that if he turns out to be a bust, someone will say 'I told you so', but I haven't seen that yet.

[BmoreColt]

What? Money? Please don't get me started on those man. If we have Luck and Manning together on the roster next year, we will essentially be doing the same thing this year with what we did with Collins, only this time Luck inplace of Collins would be an investment for the long-term instead of 1 year bench warmer.

I will go all day with you about why it is not a logical decision. I liked your Zimmer beliefs, but for you to think Manning and Luck is good for the Colts is foolish. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

[BmoreColt]

1) Is the bust probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

Put it another way...

2) Is the success probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

3) If the Colts decide to trade the #1 overall pick, and receive multiple picks in return, shouldn't they pick a 4th or 5th round QB, or is Orlavsky/Painter/Collins the acceptable backup plan?

4) If Peyton seems healthy on March 8, but gets injured in the first game, such that his is out for the rest of the year, what do you think will be the season's W-L record with the backup plan you chose?

I would appreciate your thoughts.

My contingency plan is Brock Osweller in the 4th-5th round, who I have said for weeks I am high on. That is someone you can take comfortably to sit and learn the game. The bust rate is 50/50 in terms of logically thinking, as far as intangibles and all the numbers, obviously the later you draft the greater the chance of not being anything substantial. But much of this depends on team, system, coaching, many variables. I think when Manning is healthy, he can easily finish his contract, therefore a kid with the attributes Brock has, he can sit and learn. He won't get much action or repetition, but he can learn how to study film, and he is someone with no pressure to come in an succeed. Regardless of who the Colts draft or have at back-up QB, chances are they are going to suffer a losing season, whether its Luck, RGIII, Orlovsky, or the kid I like Osweller. It takes time, repetition, growing pains, and experience to become good to great. Luck will gain just as much of that on the bench four years as Osweller will. That's why if healthy, which I expect, you hands down trade the pick.

[Restored]

I will go all day with you about why it is not a logical decision. I liked your Zimmer beliefs, but for you to think Manning and Luck is good for the Colts is foolish. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Tell that to Jim Irsay on draft day when he drafts Luck and Peyton is healthy for next year.

[BmoreColt]

Tell that to Jim Irsay on draft day when he drafts Luck and Peyton is healthy for next year.

I have already said all over the place that is what I believe Irsay will do! But I also think it is very irrational and not the right decision to have both.

[UndecidedFrog]

My contingency plan is Brock Osweller in the 4th-5th round, who I have said for weeks I am high on. That is someone you can take comfortably to sit and learn the game.

Unfortunately, I think Brock Osweiler will not be taken in the 4th -5th round.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/33504/osweiler-are-first-rounder

Some scouts think he is a late 1st rounder as the #3 QB overall in this year's draft behind Luck and RG3.

[BmoreColt]

Unfortunately, I think Brock Osweiler will not be taken in the 4th -5th round.

http://espn.go.com/b...e-first-rounder

Some scouts think he is a late 1st rounder as the #3 QB overall in this year's draft behind Luck and RG3.

CBS Big Board had him much later, again I didn't think he was coming out until next year. I think the kid could be a STUD!

[UndecidedFrog]

CBS Big Board had him much later, again I didn't think he was coming out until next year. I think the kid could be a STUD!

Yes, any prospect could be a stud. The hard thing is to attempt to attach a probability to that potential and compare that probability to other prospects, like Luck or RG3.

From my perspective, I see Luck at the very top, with a moderate drop to arrive at RG3, then a precipitous drop to all the others.

How do you see it? Do you see Osweiler equivalent to Luck or RG3?

[gacker65]

What he said made perfect sense. I think you just failed to grasp it. There is always a "yeah but" type commentary about draft prospects. There has really been none of that surrounding Luck.

What was posted, was that all the Negative came out after they became busts. Leaf was the Luck of the "98 draft. Did not google it , I lived it. Manning was the one who all the analysts said would be drafted 2nd. Colts chose the better QB IMO.

[jskinnz]

What was posted, was that all the Negative came out after they became busts. Leaf was the Luck of the "98 draft. Did not google it , I lived it. Manning was the one who all the analysts said would be drafted 2nd. Colts chose the better QB IMO.

You need to stay away from massive generalizations such as the highlighted above. That simply is not true. I lived it as well but apparently remember it better than you. "All"the analysts did not actually say that.

[UndecidedFrog]

If my memory serves me correctly, some analysts highlighted problems associated with Leaf's mental makeup at the time.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1012545/index.htm

[OldManP]

What? Money? Please don't get me started on those man. If we have Luck and Manning together on the roster next year, we will essentially be doing the same thing this year with what we did with Collins, only this time Luck inplace of Collins would be an investment for the long-term instead of 1 year bench warmer.

Yes - money. What did Collins cost this year, compared to what Luck will get (somewhere) next year?

[Restored]

Yes - money. What did Collins cost this year, compared to what Luck will get (somewhere) next year?

4 mil. Luck's rookie wage under new CBA rules would cost somewhere between 4-5, 6 at the highest. Looks about the same to me.

[Blue Horseshoe]

And with the first pick the Indianapolis Colts select...

Jeff George.

[BmoreColt]

Yes, any prospect could be a stud. The hard thing is to attempt to attach a probability to that potential and compare that probability to other prospects, like Luck or RG3.

From my perspective, I see Luck at the very top, with a moderate drop to arrive at RG3, then a precipitous drop to all the others.

How do you see it? Do you see Osweiler equivalent to Luck or RG3?

Yeah they are equivalent, any of the three will have the same impact on the colts for 4 years... ZERO. Holding a clipboard, they are all on the same level then.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yeah they are equivalent, any of the three will have the same impact on the colts for 4 years... ZERO. Holding a clipboard, they are all on the same level then.

If you see Osweiler equivalent to Luck, then by all means draft Osweiler in the 2nd-3rd round. You will be getting a potential star QB cheap. However, most of the NFL scouts disagree with you. They rate Luck #1 overall and #1 QB, and Osweiler as #62 overall and #5 QB, behind Luck, RG3, Tannehill and Foles. That is a significant gap between your perspective and theirs.

If you see any QB holding a clipboard to be equivalent to Luck, why bother drafting one? Why not stay with the Orlovsky/Painter/Collins backup plan?

[BmoreColt]

Because I think foles/ osweiler have better upside in the future than the rest on the staff. But I think orlovsky is a competent backup for now...

[Horseshoe79]

Lets look at the Heisman Trophy winner and the runner-up's that failed in the NFL since 2000:

2000: Chris Weinke, Josh Heupel, Drew Brees

2001: Eric Crouch, Rex Grossman, Ken Dorsey

2002: Carson Palmer, Brad Banks

2003: Jason White,Eli Manning finished 3rd

2004: Matt Leinart, Jason White

2005: (Reggie Bush won), Vince Young, Matt Leinart

2006: Troy Smith, Brady Quinn finished 3rd

2007: Tim Tebow, Colt Brennan finished 3rd

2008: Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow

2009: Colt McCoy finished 3rd

2010: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck

2011: Robert Griffin lll, Andrew Luck

Now looking at those past winners and runner up's..................I think it's safe to say that being the winner is a bit of a career curse

[Jay305]

Lets look at the Heisman Trophy winner and the runner-up's that failed in the NFL since 2000:

2000: Chris Weinke, Josh Heupel, Drew Brees

2001: Eric Crouch, Rex Grossman, Ken Dorsey

2002: Carson Palmer, Brad Banks

2003: Jason White,Eli Manning finished 3rd

2004: Matt Leinart, Jason White

2005: (Reggie Bush won), Vince Young, Matt Leinart

2006: Troy Smith, Brady Quinn finished 3rd

2007: Tim Tebow, Colt Brennan finished 3rd

2008: Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow

2009: Colt McCoy finished 3rd

2010: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck

2011: Robert Griffin lll, Andrew Luck

Now looking at those past winners and runner up's..................I think it's safe to say that being the winner is a bit of a career curse

yeah whatever

[UndecidedFrog]

Don't forget that Peyton was a runner-up too in 1997.

[OldManP]

4 mil. Luck's rookie wage under new CBA rules would cost somewhere between 4-5, 6 at the highest. Looks about the same to me.

You have to consider the signing bonus. That's real money that the Colts must pay out.

[Restored]

You have to consider the signing bonus. That's real money that the Colts must pay out.

Real money and cap money are two different things my friend.

[OldManP]

Real money and cap money are two different things my friend.

That's why I used the term that I used. Many posters think the only thing that matters is salary cap. By only counting $4 million, you make Luck to be cheaper than he is. The $15,000,000 or so bonus he might receive represents a lot of concession sales. Ticket sales. Advertising revenue. They have to use revenue to pay the total salary, not just the cap money. It is, as I said, "REAL money".

[CS Colts Fan]

My contingency plan is Brock Osweller in the 4th-5th round, who I have said for weeks I am high on.. Draftek has him in the 7th rnd..

I see where you are BmoreColt, but I am not getting a good feeling the PM will be back and if he is with us .. the way the FO is NOT talking with him or helping with his recovery.. this is just based on what we have all heard in the last week..

IF He is back .. I hear ya loud and clear.. get the picks and grab a later QB.. we could get the other people we need to get back to the top .. but I think Isray will get Luck and we don;t know where the new HC wants to takes us or possible OC.. I say that if CC is let go there is our sign the PM will not be back with the Colts IF he is back at all.

I do feel that we have good talent and probably only 4-5 people away from being a top playoff team again with this coach.. hope he brings in a good ST coach and strentgh and conditioning coach..

[BmoreColt]

My contingency plan is Brock Osweller in the 4th-5th round, who I have said for weeks I am high on.. Draftek has him in the 7th rnd..

I see where you are BmoreColt, but I am not getting a good feeling the PM will be back and if he is with us .. the way the FO is NOT talking with him or helping with his recovery.. this is just based on what we have all heard in the last week..

IF He is back .. I hear ya loud and clear.. get the picks and grab a later QB.. we could get the other people we need to get back to the top .. but I think Isray will get Luck and we don;t know where the new HC wants to takes us or possible OC.. I say that if CC is let go there is our sign the PM will not be back with the Colts IF he is back at all.

I do feel that we have good talent and probably only 4-5 people away from being a top playoff team again with this coach.. hope he brings in a good ST coach and strentgh and conditioning coach..

Osweiler could become a stud

[JWF]

Im not sure what to make of Osweiler. Im just not a big fan of guys who play in that passy happy spread offense. Just really hard to judge those types of QBs.

He's got the arm and size but he has really questionable decision making at times from watching him. I also think he needs to bulk up. He may not be able to hold up taking NFL shots IMO.

Honestly he reminds me of a slightly better version of Gabbert. Just MO.

I do think RG3 is the real deal for a spread offense guy though. Accurate and makes really good decisions. Appears to be a good leader out there too.

[UndecidedFrog]

Osweiler could become a stud

As of Feb.3, 2012, Osweiler has moved up in the QB draft prospect ranks per Mel Kiper:

"Most interesting: Kiper ranks former Arizona State's Brock Osweiler No. 3 among the quarterbacks, ahead of former Arizona's Nick Foles, who is fifth. Luck, of course, is No. 1 and Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III is No. 2. "

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/34154/stanford-leads-pac-12-in-mock-nfl-draft

[John Dee]

Ive read alot of people mention past QB busts and such since the 90's. Just wanted to throw my 2 cents out about it while I think most of them dont compare well to Luck's situation. Im really only talking top 10 QBs here. Sorry about the length of the post. Tried to space it out not to hurt the eyes!

1.) Ryan Leaf - Leaf had all the physical tools but the guy was a headcase and just couldnt handle the pressure of the NFL. Obviously no one knows for sure how Luck will react to the pressure of the NFL. Judging the way he handles himself in the public eye with all of the hype surrounding him for the past two years, I find it hard to believe he wont be able to. He certainly appears to have the maturity necessary. ALL SD HAD TO DO WAS TALK TO ANYONE ON THE WSU CAMPUS AND THEY WOULD HAVE PASSED ON LEAF.

2.) Tim Couch - Couch played in a passy happy, spread offense and threw alot of INTs in college. Kentucky was one of the earlier pass happy spread offenses. Luck plays in a pro style offense with basically a bunch of TEs and average WRs (granted very good O-line) and looked even more impressive than Couch ever did. WENT TO A BAD TEAM AND GOT THE heck BEAT OUT OF HIM LOST ALL HIS MOJO

3.) Akili Smith - literally had one good year in college and was taken by a team with a history of bad draft picks and was considered the black hole of the NFL at the time. Not only did this kid probably need to develop more and be taken lower in the draft, he was also thrown into an absolutely terrible situation. Again Luck has consistently been good his entire college career and will not be put into the black hole of the league. STUPID PICK, A ONE YEAR WONDER AT OREGON

4.) Joey Harrington- once again really only had one good year (which wasnt even off the charts impressive) and played at Oregon when they started instituting the spread philosophy. Harrington also wow'd alot of people with his stature and arm strength but wasnt really ever "that good". Was again thrown into a starting job with an awful franchise and expected to start on top of it. SEE ABOVE...

5.) David Carr - He played at a small school who played bad teams. Carr did show some skills but I think the situation he was put into ruined him. Forced to start for an expansion team and consistently faced high caliber players for the first time in his career. LAST ONE IN THE BUILDING, AND FIRST ONE TO LEAVE... ONCE AGAIN.. A TEAM THAT PAYS DEARLY FOR NOT DOING HOMEWORK.

6.) Alex Smith (even though he is not a complete bust) - Played at a smaller school, in a spread offense and scouts only really had a year and half to go by. Smith obviously needed time to develop coming from a spread offense and shouldnt have been taken #1. Alot of people questioned this pick at the time too. The funny thing is even Smith has shown with a good staff and time develop he can be a solid player. WHAT 7 OC'S IN 7 YEARS NOW, JURY STILL OUT

7.) Vince Young (wasnt a complete bust either) - While he was a good college QB alot of people werent sure about him being worth a top pick during his senior year. It really wasnt until after the national championship game that people started to mention it. Even then he wasnt a conseus sure fire pick. It took the Titans owner falling in love with him and forcing him to be taken for him to go top 3. BUYER BEWARE....

8.) Matt Leinart - Ill admit I thought Leinart would be a good pro but he was just too much of a party guy and didnt have the maturity to make it on this level. Leinart also had very questionable arm strength and also played on a very talented USC team with alot of offensive weapons which helped to inflate his numbers. Again I dont think maturity issues will be a problem for Luck and he is considered a much better prospect than Leinart was anyways. SEE DAVID CARR

9.) Jamarcus Russell - is another headcase who really only had one good year in college. I remember people were very surprised he was being taken #1. Russell certainly had the physical tools but the guy just wasnt mature enough to handle the NFL and wasnt ready to be the face of a franchise. Especially a dysfunctional one. LAZY... ANOTHER TEAM DOESN'T DO HOMEWORK

10.) Mark Sanchez (isnt really a bust persay but not worth #5) - Again played for a very talented USC team where his numbers were slightly inflated. Sanchez also only played one season. I dont think Sanchez is a good QB but he certainly is better than alot of players listed above. Luck is considered a much better prospect than Sanchez was and also has been scouted much longer than Sanchez. The fact he was another USC QB also helped his stock jump quite a bit. ENTITLED...

Another point that I would add is that alot of teams have historically reached on QBs because of the value of the position and their desperation to get one. Alot of the guys above I mentioned should never have been taken top 10 based of their limited playing time in college or playing in non-NFL offenses. You also see alot of teams fall in love with guys because of their arm strength (Jamarcus Russell) or stature (Blaine Gabbert, who should not have been a 1st round pick at all) despite question marks. While the Colts do need to think of the future of the position, they arent in a situation that dictates being desperate to draft one. It really is a luxury pick.

There is no garuntee with Luck and there isnt with any player but this kid just doesnt have the obvious flaws or question marks. He plays in a pro offense, has a good arm and is accurate. He has the prototypical NFL QB stature and the benefit of good athleticism on top of it. Most importantly the kid looks composed at all times and has excellent decision making. He appears to have the maturity to handle the NFL pressure and will be coming into a pretty good franchise and possibly a chance to sit behind a HOF QB.

Time will tell I suppose but should be interesting to see where the teams goes in April.

There are a lot of factors that go into a QB "being a bust" ..... work ethic, team drafted by, college situaion. ..ect.......Luck is by far the most NFL ready QB to come out in a very long time.

Luck is the real deal... Has done it for 3 years, works hard, and is humble...

[UndecidedFrog]

That's why I used the term that I used. Many posters think the only thing that matters is salary cap. By only counting $4 million, you make Luck to be cheaper than he is. The $15,000,000 or so bonus he might receive represents a lot of concession sales. Ticket sales. Advertising revenue. They have to use revenue to pay the total salary, not just the cap money. It is, as I said, "REAL money".

If you project Luck to cost 5% more overall than what Cam Newton got last year, Luck will cost: (all $ in MM)

2012: $15.6 in real dollars; $4.2 in cap hit

2013: $1.4 in real dollars; $5.2 in cap hit

2014: $2.5 in real dollars; $6.3 in cap hit

2015 $3.6 in real dollars; $7.4 in cap hit

Totals: $23.1 in real dollars; $23.1 in cap hit

Either way, real dollars or cap dollars, over 4 years is the same: $23.1, just distributed differently.

[funktacious2]

I have seen alot of Luck he is very Peyton like.. he reads the defenses and has a good arm and I would say more run ability.. my concern is how does he handle a strong defense ie.. secondary.. the pac 10 has been weak for the last 12 years there I really wanted to see him go up against Alabama or LSU to see he is 0-2 against a Oregon and they are not as good as SEC..

He is good and Should be good in the NFL.. But there is no guarantee.. I am not convinced he is the one and only.. we are in a special place with the first pick... and I also feel that they values will be inflated especially on RGIII ( which I am a fan of, but only 1 year as QB )..

I trust in our new GM.. he reads poeple and the players and I will trust in his opinion..

who knows it may not be Luck or RG .. let;s wait and see

Well, in his defense... I don't think those losses to Oregon were due to a lack of him playing well. In fact, he played awesome in the bowl game, Oregon just put up more points. lol

[GoColts8818]

What was posted, was that all the Negative came out after they became busts. Leaf was the Luck of the "98 draft. Did not google it , I lived it. Manning was the one who all the analysts said would be drafted 2nd. Colts chose the better QB IMO.

I lived it too and Luck was the Manning of the 98 draft. The guy who had been thought to be the first overall pick if he had come out the year before but went back to school and in the process was nit picked to death down to the point he finished second in the Heisman voting just like Luck. Meanwhile Leaf flew up the draft board (not unlike RG3 did this year) and people argueing for Leaf wearing do it for the same reasons they are RG3 he's the better physical speciesism. Down to the point people were saying Leaf had a better arm and just in generaly had a more gifted body for football than Peyton did.

Now with that said I think the one major difference between Leaf and RG3 is that I don't think RG3 has the "issues" that Leaf had going on that were outside of football. I think RG3 is going to be a very good QB for a very long time in the NFL and in most years he'd be the first overall pick. I just think Luck is going to be better. Everything I've seen about him and read about him and when I watched him play reminds me of Peyton Manning at that age only slightly better. Now I don't know if Luck is going to improve at the pro level like Manning did so please don't take that as me saying Luck is going to be a better pro than Peyton is because I have no way of knowing that. I just know that Luck truly does have the look of a pretty special player going into the NFL draft.

[WSO]

What was posted, was that all the Negative came out after they became busts. Leaf was the Luck of the "98 draft. Did not google it , I lived it. Manning was the one who all the analysts said would be drafted 2nd. Colts chose the better QB IMO.

I dont know what draft you watched. . . Manning had a slight edge over Leaf because Leaf had character issues along with work ethic issues. Some said Mannings biggest weakness was his arm strength which was actually REALLY good but not as good as his other skills. A lot like Luck. Manning was very much the Luck of the '98 draft.

[JWF]

What was posted, was that all the Negative came out after they became busts. Leaf was the Luck of the "98 draft. Did not google it , I lived it. Manning was the one who all the analysts said would be drafted 2nd. Colts chose the better QB IMO.

Im sorry but I lived it too as a teenager (who loved the NFL and followed it closely) and that was not the case at all. Luck is by far Manning all over again in terms of draft stock.

Manning was a big time recruit coming into college who played as a freshman. Most felt he would be a high draft pick early on in his career. He would probably have been a top 5, maybe even #1, pick after his junior year had he come out. He was widely considered the top pick coming into his senior year and having had a good year he was still considered the likely #1.

Luck was also a big time recruit (considered one of the 4-5 best QB prospects coming into college). After his freshman season he was on the radar of most scouts, draft gurus, etc.. He was considered the #1 pick after his sophmore season and it stayed that way up until now.

Leaf was not considered the #1 pick coming into his senior year at all. He hardly played before his junior year and had an average junior year at that. It took him having a good senior year (really his only good season in his career) for his stock to soar.

I equate RG3 to Leaf in terms of draft stock. Not many had RG3 going top 10 coming into this season but after having a great senior year and winning the heisman his stock has soared. Im not saying RG3 will be Leaf 2.0 btw. Im just commenting on the parallels of their draft stock. I think RG3 will be a better pro than Leaf (way better).

and ive said it many times one big difference between Manning, Luck and Leaf is their completion % in college. Manning and Luck had career %'s over 60. Leaf's best for a single season was 55%. Its not an automatic indicator but being inaccurate in college is usually not a good sign of someone who's ready for the NFL.

[DenverFan]

Reading through this thread.... and one thing I have noticed.

Andrew Luck won't be Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning. So you guys have to quit comparing him to arguably one of the best QBs in history and arguably one of the biggest busts in history.

We have the same problem in the Denver forums with Tebow. Tebow isn't Elway. And Luck isn't Manning. And he definitely isn't Leaf.

But if you want to just look at Luck as a prospect and not Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf, Andrew Luck has great (not elite) arm strength, great accuracy, great mechanics, ideal size, outstanding athleticism, great leadership, quick release, and he was already allowed to call his own plays and make his own reads in college. Andrew Luck is a very mature individual who also happens to be incredibly smart.

I would argue his biggest (and only) flaw is that he sometimes will trust his arm too much.

But hey, that's just my opinion.