The #1 Qb Bust Syndrome

[JWF]

Ive read alot of people mention past QB busts and such since the 90's. Just wanted to throw my 2 cents out about it while I think most of them dont compare well to Luck's situation. Im really only talking top 10 QBs here. Sorry about the length of the post. Tried to space it out not to hurt the eyes!

1.) Ryan Leaf - Leaf had all the physical tools but the guy was a headcase and just couldnt handle the pressure of the NFL. Obviously no one knows for sure how Luck will react to the pressure of the NFL. Judging the way he handles himself in the public eye with all of the hype surrounding him for the past two years, I find it hard to believe he wont be able to. He certainly appears to have the maturity necessary.

2.) Tim Couch - Couch played in a passy happy, spread offense and threw alot of INTs in college. Kentucky was one of the earlier pass happy spread offenses. Luck plays in a pro style offense with basically a bunch of TEs and average WRs (granted very good O-line) and looked even more impressive than Couch ever did.

3.) Akili Smith - literally had one good year in college and was taken by a team with a history of bad draft picks and was considered the black hole of the NFL at the time. Not only did this kid probably need to develop more and be taken lower in the draft, he was also thrown into an absolutely terrible situation. Again Luck has consistently been good his entire college career and will not be put into the black hole of the league.

4.) Joey Harrington- once again really only had one good year (which wasnt even off the charts impressive) and played at Oregon when they started instituting the spread philosophy. Harrington also wow'd alot of people with his stature and arm strength but wasnt really ever "that good". Was again thrown into a starting job with an awful franchise and expected to start on top of it.

5.) David Carr - He played at a small school who played bad teams. Carr did show some skills but I think the situation he was put into ruined him. Forced to start for an expansion team and consistently faced high caliber players for the first time in his career.

6.) Alex Smith (even though he is not a complete bust) - Played at a smaller school, in a spread offense and scouts only really had a year and half to go by. Smith obviously needed time to develop coming from a spread offense and shouldnt have been taken #1. Alot of people questioned this pick at the time too. The funny thing is even Smith has shown with a good staff and time develop he can be a solid player.

7.) Vince Young (wasnt a complete bust either) - While he was a good college QB alot of people werent sure about him being worth a top pick during his senior year. It really wasnt until after the national championship game that people started to mention it. Even then he wasnt a conseus sure fire pick. It took the Titans owner falling in love with him and forcing him to be taken for him to go top 3.

8.) Matt Leinart - Ill admit I thought Leinart would be a good pro but he was just too much of a party guy and didnt have the maturity to make it on this level. Leinart also had very questionable arm strength and also played on a very talented USC team with alot of offensive weapons which helped to inflate his numbers. Again I dont think maturity issues will be a problem for Luck and he is considered a much better prospect than Leinart was anyways.

9.) Jamarcus Russell - is another headcase who really only had one good year in college. I remember people were very surprised he was being taken #1. Russell certainly had the physical tools but the guy just wasnt mature enough to handle the NFL and wasnt ready to be the face of a franchise. Especially a dysfunctional one.

10.) Mark Sanchez (isnt really a bust persay but not worth #5) - Again played for a very talented USC team where his numbers were slightly inflated. Sanchez also only played one season. I dont think Sanchez is a good QB but he certainly is better than alot of players listed above. Luck is considered a much better prospect than Sanchez was and also has been scouted much longer than Sanchez. The fact he was another USC QB also helped his stock jump quite a bit.

Another point that I would add is that alot of teams have historically reached on QBs because of the value of the position and their desperation to get one. Alot of the guys above I mentioned should never have been taken top 10 based of their limited playing time in college or playing in non-NFL offenses. You also see alot of teams fall in love with guys because of their arm strength (Jamarcus Russell) or stature (Blaine Gabbert, who should not have been a 1st round pick at all) despite question marks. While the Colts do need to think of the future of the position, they arent in a situation that dictates being desperate to draft one. It really is a luxury pick.

There is no garuntee with Luck and there isnt with any player but this kid just doesnt have the obvious flaws or question marks. He plays in a pro offense, has a good arm and is accurate. He has the prototypical NFL QB stature and the benefit of good athleticism on top of it. Most importantly the kid looks composed at all times and has excellent decision making. He appears to have the maturity to handle the NFL pressure and will be coming into a pretty good franchise and possibly a chance to sit behind a HOF QB.

Time will tell I suppose but should be interesting to see where the teams goes in April.

[ConBro]

I'm happy somebody took the time to post this. Reading the same old posts about Luck being the next "Ryan Leaf" have gotten too old for me. People know a name and they throw it out there without doing any homework. Obviously there are no real guarantees in life. Luck could very well be a bust. Peyton Manning could have been a bust at #1 overall as well. The truth is, you don't really know until you put him and the rest into a gameday situation. The sky might fall tomorrow, I read.

[CS Colts Fan]

I have seen alot of Luck he is very Peyton like.. he reads the defenses and has a good arm and I would say more run ability.. my concern is how does he handle a strong defense ie.. secondary.. the pac 10 has been weak for the last 12 years there I really wanted to see him go up against Alabama or LSU to see he is 0-2 against a Oregon and they are not as good as SEC..

He is good and Should be good in the NFL.. But there is no guarantee.. I am not convinced he is the one and only.. we are in a special place with the first pick... and I also feel that they values will be inflated especially on RGIII ( which I am a fan of, but only 1 year as QB )..

I trust in our new GM.. he reads poeple and the players and I will trust in his opinion..

who knows it may not be Luck or RG .. let;s wait and see

[Esquire59]

Excellent post and analysis. Luck wiill not be anything close to a bust. Can't wait to have him lead our team for 15 years.

[Restored]

Great post man. I think you hit the nail on the head concerning other top draft QB's and how they ARENT like Luck.

[CantBeStopped]

Excellent post and analysis. Luck wiill not be anything close to a bust. Can't wait to have him lead our team for 15 years.

i guess ppl dont realize the average life span of an nfl player. Ppl automatically think this guy is gonna play 15 years. That is absolutely nuts to think that. And as another poster said. They are sick of hearing all the luck will be a bust threads. Im sick of hearing the luck will be our pick guaranteed threads

[Restored]

i guess ppl dont realize the average life span of an nfl player. Ppl automatically think this guy is gonna play 15 years. That is absolutely nuts to think that. And as another poster said. They are sick of hearing all the luck will be a bust threads. Im sick of hearing the luck will be our pick guaranteed threads

The problem is, he more than likely will be our guranteed pick. In fact, I'll bet you any amount of money that we will draft him.

[CantBeStopped]

The problem is, he more than likely will be our guranteed pick. In fact, I'll bet you any amount of money that we will draft him.

that is a problem. More than likely we will pick him and it will set this team back for years. A team with teo qbs has no qb. We already have the best qb to play the game. To draft another qb with that top pick will be a huge waste. We could trade that pick and set this team up for years to come. But instead were gonna take that qb and hes gonna get.impatient sitting and we will see manning pushed out the door before his time is up.i dont buy this rebuilding crap. We have been a playoff team for many years with the same roster. So why do we need to rebuild

[Restored]

that is a problem. More than likely we will pick him and it will set this team back for years. A team with teo qbs has no qb. We already have the best qb to play the game. To draft another qb with that top pick will be a huge waste. We could trade that pick and set this team up for years to come. But instead were gonna take that qb and hes gonna get.impatient sitting and we will see manning pushed out the door before his time is up.i dont buy this rebuilding crap. We have been a playoff team for many years with the same roster. So why do we need to rebuild

Really? We've been a playoff team for many years? Then why weren't we in the playoffs this year?

You obviously have no idea how the league works and that its a business that is constantly changing and turnover rate is higher than most cooporations. Point being: You have to take Luck and prepare him for when Peyton is gone in 2-4 years. We can still set this team up to win with Luck and drafting good in the later rounds like we have done in the past before Polian lost his touch.

[ConBro]

that is a problem. More than likely we will pick him and it will set this team back for years. A team with teo qbs has no qb. We already have the best qb to play the game. To draft another qb with that top pick will be a huge waste. We could trade that pick and set this team up for years to come. But instead were gonna take that qb and hes gonna get.impatient sitting and we will see manning pushed out the door before his time is up.i dont buy this rebuilding crap. We have been a playoff team for many years with the same roster. So why do we need to rebuild

Buy what you will-- Irsay himself used the term "rebuilding phase". As for "having Peyton Manning", for all intents and purposes, we DON'T have Peyton Manning. If we did, we would be playing tomorrow, not Houston. And we wouldn't have any of this #1 pick talk. We have won 1 Super Bowl with the GOAT. If you want to argue semantics, then we HAVE been set back for years.

[super8todd]

This post just confirms to me Luck is worth it to take with the #1 Pick, so we don't >>> it up.. and makes me very weary of RG3 given those previous examples of his type of play.

[Balzer40]

I'm happy somebody took the time to post this. Reading the same old posts about Luck being the next "Ryan Leaf" have gotten too old for me. People know a name and they throw it out there without doing any homework. Obviously there are no real guarantees in life. Luck could very well be a bust. Peyton Manning could have been a bust at #1 overall as well. The truth is, you don't really know until you put him and the rest into a gameday situation. The sky might fall tomorrow, I read.

This is absolutely correct. I think most of the people that post "Luck is the next Leaf", just heard Leaf's name mentioned on TV and had to google him to see what happened. These people were probably about 7 or 8 yrs. old when Manning and Leaf were drafted and have no idea what they are talking about.

[Smonroe]

You can go back and read some negative analysis on just about every guy on that list. I've yet to read anything negative on Luck. I can't say I've seen him play much, but when I have he's been solid. The guy has it all. We just have to see if he has patience.

[Bleedin Blue]

The thing about A. Smith to is that the poor guy had like 7 offensive coordinators in 7 years! He's had no consistent coaching staff at all and he is starting to get some polish to his game. I also agree with the assessment of Luck and hope that we take him #1.

As for being worried that he hasn't faced a SEC defense well...A J McCarron was able to score on LSU and doesn't have half the skill or experience as Luck so don't be too worried about that.

[Esquire59]

4 teams left in playoffs of 2012. 2 of the 4 teams QBs were first overall pick. You can't pass on Luck.

[ColtsBlueFL]

4 teams left in playoffs of 2012. 2 of the 4 teams QBs were first overall pick. You can't pass on Luck.

The other two... 18th pick in first round 2008, and Brady. We all know his Cindarella story. Here's the first round QB's that won Super Bowls-

1. Joe Namath - Super Bowl III

2. Bob Griese - Super Bowl VII and VIII

3. Terry Bradshaw - Super Bowls IX, X, XII, and XIII

4. Jim Plunkett - Super Bowls XV and XVIII

5. Jim McMahon - Super Bowl XX

6. Phil Simms - Super Bowl XXI

7. Doug Williams - Super Bowl XXII

8. Troy Aikman - Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and XXX

9. Steve Young - Super Bowl XXIX

10. John Elway - Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII

11. Trent Dilfer - Super Bowl XXXV

12. Ben Roethlisberger - Super Bowl XL and XLIII

13. Peyton Manning - Super Bowl XLI

14. Eli Manning - Super Bowl XLII

15. Aaron Rodgers - Super Bowl XLV

24 Super Bowl victories from the above. Unless the Patriots win again, we'll add another to this list.

[UndecidedFrog]

1. Joe Namath - Super Bowl III

2. Bob Griese - Super Bowl VII and VIII

3. Terry Bradshaw - Super Bowls IX, X, XII, and XIII

4. Jim Plunkett - Super Bowls XV and XVIII

5. Jim McMahon - Super Bowl XX

6. Phil Simms - Super Bowl XXI

7. Doug Williams - Super Bowl XXII

8. Troy Aikman - Super Bowls XXVII, XXVIII, and XXX

9. Steve Young - Super Bowl XXIX

10. John Elway - Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII

11. Trent Dilfer - Super Bowl XXXV

12. Ben Roethlisberger - Super Bowl XL and XLIII

13. Peyton Manning - Super Bowl XLI

14. Eli Manning - Super Bowl XLII

15. Aaron Rodgers - Super Bowl XLV

24 Super Bowl victories from the above. Unless the Patriots win again, we'll add another to this list.

Thanks for the above information. To balance the original post, I think it is a good thing to present the other side of the coin. Of the QBs you provided that represented 24 SB wins, how many of them were overall 1st picks and how many of them were taken in the first round?

1. Joe Namath - pre-consolidation days, picked by both NFL (Cards) and AFL (Jets)

2. Bob Griese - 1st round (4th overall) pick Dolphins

3. Terry Bradshaw - 1st overall pick Steelers

4. Jim Plunkett - 1st overall pick Patriots

5. Jim McMahon - 1st round (5th overall) pick Bears

6. Phil Simms - 1st round (7th overall) pick Giants

7. Doug Williams - 1st round (17th overall) pick Bucs

8. Troy Aikman - 1st overall pick Cowboys

9. Steve Young - signed with USFL LAExpress

10. John Elway - 1st overall pick Colts to Broncos

11. Trent Dilfer - 1st round (6th overall) pick Bucs

12. Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round (11th overall) pick Steelers

13. Peyton Manning - 1st overall pick Colts

14. Eli Manning - 1st overall pick Chargers to Giants

15. Aaron Rodgers - 1st round (24th overall) to Packers

From reviewing the above list in comparison to the original post list, I think that there is a strong positive correlation between SB winning teams and their 1st round QBs.

[BmoreColt]

Thanks for the above information. To balance the original post, I think it is a good thing to present the other side of the coin. Of the QBs you provided that represented 24 SB wins, how many of them were overall 1st picks and how many of them were taken in the first round?

1. Joe Namath - pre-consolidation days, picked by both NFL (Cards) and AFL (Jets)

2. Bob Griese - 1st round (4th overall) pick Dolphins

3. Terry Bradshaw - 1st overall pick Steelers

4. Jim Plunkett - 1st overall pick Patriots

5. Jim McMahon - 1st round (5th overall) pick Bears

6. Phil Simms - 1st round (7th overall) pick Giants

7. Doug Williams - 1st round (17th overall) pick Bucs

8. Troy Aikman - 1st overall pick Cowboys

9. Steve Young - signed with USFL LAExpress

10. John Elway - 1st overall pick Colts to Broncos

11. Trent Dilfer - 1st round (6th overall) pick Bucs

12. Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round (11th overall) pick Steelers

13. Peyton Manning - 1st overall pick Colts

14. Eli Manning - 1st overall pick Chargers to Giants

15. Aaron Rodgers - 1st round (24th overall) to Packers

From reviewing the above list in comparison to the original post list, I think that there is a strong positive correlation between SB winning teams and their 1st round QBs.

Agreed you need a good QB to win a SB, at the very least you need a compitent quality QB, because they saying is Offense wins games, but Defense wins championships. Go back and look at the last decade for example, teams that won the SB had a capable defense in some respect. For Example:

Green Bay last year- Led the NFL in turnovers, pass rushing, turn over forcing machine! Dind't have the defense this year, eliminated in the first round.

Pittsburgh- Top 5 Defense in the NFL for both of their recent SB victories.

Giants- Had a ferocious pass rush, kept the high octane NE offense to 14 points.

Indy- Defense vastly improved at the end of the season and in the playoffs!

New Englad- Had one of the best defenses in the NFL when they won their 3 SB.

Baltimore- Best defense in the NFL when they won their SB.

The teams with the best QB's in the NFL this year Rodgers and Brees are eliminated, I think Brady will follow this week. The correlation here is for 3 of the 4 remaining teams they have GREAT defenses, including the Giants when they are healthy, and are very balanced teams. Again offense wins games but defense wins championships!

[UndecidedFrog]

Agreed you need a good QB to win a SB, at the very least you need a compitent quality QB, because they saying is Offense wins games, but Defense wins championships.

<snip>

The teams with the best QB's in the NFL this year Rodgers and Brees are eliminated, I think Brady will follow this week. The correlation here is for 3 of the 4 remaining teams they have GREAT defenses, including the Giants when they are healthy, and are very balanced teams. Again offense wins games but defense wins championships!

I don't doubt that good defenses are required to win SBs too. Yes, there are some SBs winning teams that had great defenses, and only mediocre offenses (Dilfer's Ravens come to mind as one of the more lopsided teams). However, I think the majority of SB winning teams will have both good offense and defense.

In keeping with the OP topic, SB winning teams usually, more often than not, are led by a 1st round QB. The above list accounts for 24 SBs wins led by 1st round QBs. That's more than half. This upcoming SB will be the 46th SB. If the 9ers, Giants or the Ravens win, it will just add to the majority.

[BmoreColt]

I don't doubt that good defenses are required to win SBs too. Yes, there are some SBs winning teams that had great defenses, and only mediocre offenses (Dilfer's Ravens come to mind as one of the more lopsided teams). However, I think the majority of SB winning teams will have both good offense and defense.

In keeping with the OP topic, SB winning teams usually, more often than not, are led by a 1st round QB. The above list accounts for 24 SBs wins led by 1st round QBs. That's more than half. This upcoming SB will be the 46th SB. If the 9ers, Giants or the Ravens win, it will just add to the majority.

Most SuperBowls are not one be the #1 overall pick, that is the correlation and trend that should JUMP out at us.... this means there is talent outside of the #1 pick.

[Flash7]

Most SuperBowls are not one be the #1 overall pick, that is the correlation and trend that should JUMP out at us.... this means there is talent outside of the #1 pick.

By that logic, no one should ever choose first. We should continuously trade the pick amongst ourselves.

Also, of course there is other talent outside of the #1 pick just by statistical reasoning. There is only 1 first overall pick each year and numerous subsequent picks. The odds are, there is a ton of talent outise of the #1 pick. It doesn't mean that that you cannot choose first and still land a great prospect at #1.

[BmoreColt]

By that logic, no one should ever choose first. We should continuously trade the pick amongst ourselves.

Also, of course there is other talent outside of the #1 pick just by statistical reasoning. There is only 1 first overall pick each year and numerous subsequent picks. The odds are, there is a ton of talent outise of the #1 pick. It doesn't mean that that you cannot choose first and still land a great prospect at #1.

That isn't even close to what I am saying or suggesting.

[Flash7]

Correct me if I'm wrong, and please forgive me if I misintepreted your statement, but it appears to me that you are saying that most Super Bowls have not been won by a #1 pick. You also stated that there is talent outside of the first pick.

I addressed both of your statements by stating that if most Superbowls are now won with the first pick, then we and all other teams shouldn't covet the first pick. It's obviously not going to help win a SuperBowl according to your argument.

To address your statement about there being talent outside of the first pick, I provided logical and statistical reasoning of why that's such an obvious statement.

It looks to me that you may be inferring that it's a better course to trade the pick than to chose first overall?

[BmoreColt]

Correct me if I'm wrong, and please forgive me if I misintepreted your statement, but it appears to me that you are saying that most Super Bowls have not been won by a #1 pick. You also stated that there is talent outside of the first pick.

I addressed both of your statements by stating that if most Superbowls are now won with the first pick, then we and all other teams shouldn't covet the first pick. It's obviously not going to help win a SuperBowl according to your argument.

To address your statement about there being talent outside of the first pick, I provided logical and statistical reasoning of why that's such an obvious statement.

It looks to me that you may be inferring that it's a better course to trade the pick than to chose first overall?

Given our current situation, with a healthy Manning, Yes I would advise the pick be traded. I am stating that teams who win the SB are typically balanced, if you lack that aspect of your game, it doesn't usually matter how great your QB is, hence the Packers and Saints this year. But when both those teams won the last two years, they created turnovers and led the NFL in total takeaways.

[UndecidedFrog]

Most SuperBowls are not one be the #1 overall pick, that is the correlation and trend that should JUMP out at us.... this means there is talent outside of the #1 pick.

That's not what I wrote. Perhaps you misunderstood me. I wrote that 24 of the last 45 SBs were won by teams that were led by a 1st round QB. That is the majority of SB wins, and if the 9ers, Giants or Ravens win this year, it will be 25 of the last 46.

No doubt there is plenty of (in fact much more) talent outside the #1 overall pick, since the #1 overall pick is just one pick, and when you compare that against the 269 other picks plus the undrafted FAs, this becomes very obvious. However, you might want to compare bust rates of the #1 overall picks versus let's say the #270 overall picks. It takes no great leap to consider that one of these picks will have a much lower bust rate than the other.

[Malakai432]

that is a problem. More than likely we will pick him and it will set this team back for years. A team with teo qbs has no qb. We already have the best qb to play the game. To draft another qb with that top pick will be a huge waste. We could trade that pick and set this team up for years to come. But instead were gonna take that qb and hes gonna get.impatient sitting and we will see manning pushed out the door before his time is up.i dont buy this rebuilding crap. We have been a playoff team for many years with the same roster. So why do we need to rebuild

Ah, it's good to know that Manning is 100% healthy and will be able to play at a high level for another 5 years, especially since you must be one of his best friends.

On a serious note, there is nothing to say the Colts won't be a playoff caliber team with Andrew Luck even if Peytons health never comes to. Even with Dan Orlavsky and this horrible defense they would have potential to win 6-8+ games let alone with Andrew Luck. I agree even if Luck came out starting and Peyton retried or was healthy and went to another team, the Colts might struggle for a couple years. However there's no doubt in my mind the new GM and Irsay will do whatever to build this team into a consistant playoff/SB caliber team even without Manning within the next few years.

In the end simply drafting Luck won't hinder this team for several years unless everything is mishandled. Colts have some solid talent, + will gain upcomming talent via FA, UDFA, and the draft.

[number28]

nice post, but all these QB's were drafted mid - late 90's and up. Where are the early 90's and 80's picks that didn't pan out? It would be interesting to see that.

Another thing is, some of these QB's u mentioned had injuries that contributed to their bust status.

Andrew Luck is a flip of a coin. 50/50 chance just like any other QB. The odds of him being just average are also quite high.

Basically there is a very miniscule percent chance that he will be a star in this league.

I hope he becomes a great player and does great things in the NFL. It will be very easy for me to say that I was wrong, and I hope I'm wrong.

But if he is a bust or just average, at least I won't be taken by surprise and there will be no disappointment at all.

[number28]

oh and if Luck is so darn good, how come RG3 was chosen the best player in college?

[number28]

You can go back and read some negative analysis on just about every guy on that list. I've yet to read anything negative on Luck. I can't say I've seen him play much, but when I have he's been solid. The guy has it all. We just have to see if he has patience.

What u said makes 0 sense.

all the negative analysis comes AFTER someone became a bust. When these players were drafted it was all positive.

If Luck becomes a bust there will be a book published on all the negative analysis behind him.

[haughvillian]

Luck will be solid and you can't pass on that. Ask Miami, Cleveland, Oakland, Jets, Buffalo, etc. How many years have these teams been looking for solid QB play? RGIII may be good too but he's smallish and actually could be a bust too...you never know. Too many people (scouts, coaches, etc) have said Luck is sound and will be good. Build around him would be smart.

[BmoreColt]

Luck will be solid and you can't pass on that. Ask Miami, Cleveland, Oakland, Jets, Buffalo, etc. How many years have these teams been looking for solid QB play? RGIII may be good too but he's smallish and actually could be a bust too...you never know. Too many people (scouts, coaches, etc) have said Luck is sound and will be good. Build around him would be smart.

Build around luck and have the same problems in 10 years that Manning has had his whole career?

[jskinnz]

oh and if Luck is so darn good, how come RG3 was chosen the best player in college?

In the next 10 years, there may not be a more meaningless thing said on this board than little nugget.

[jskinnz]

What u said makes 0 sense.

all the negative analysis comes AFTER someone became a bust. When these players were drafted it was all positive.

If Luck becomes a bust there will be a book published on all the negative analysis behind him.

What he said made perfect sense. I think you just failed to grasp it.

There is always a "yeah but" type commentary about draft prospects. There has really been none of that surrounding Luck.

[Flash7]

oh and if Luck is so darn good, how come RG3 was chosen the best player in college?

The college game and the NFL game are different. You can be really good at one and not the other. RGIII was a very good college player, as was Luck, however, Luck is considered a better pro prospect. Not that RGIII may not be a good pro prospect, but the majority of "those in the know" feel that Luck is the better option.

[Flash7]

Build around luck and have the same problems in 10 years that Manning has had his whole career?

A lot of the problems that Manning has had throughout his whole career are due to some bad drafts and some bad coaching. We missed on Anthony Gonzalez, Ugoh, Hughes, and some others, which had caused the overall talent of the team to decline. We now have a new GM and will have a whole new coaching staff. We cannot project the shortcomings of the previous staff to our future.

[BmoreColt]

A lot of the problems that Manning has had throughout his whole career are due to some bad drafts and some bad coaching. We missed on Anthony Gonzalez, Ugoh, Hughes, and some others, which had caused the overall talent of the team to decline. We now have a new GM and will have a whole new coaching staff. We cannot project the shortcomings of the previous staff to our future.

The point and the problem is building around one player again and putting all your eggs in one basket...what if luck isn't what they say he is.. It's back to square one

[Flash7]

The point and the problem is building around one player again and putting all your eggs in one basket...what if luck isn't what they say he is.. It's back to square one

Unfortunatley, that's what the problem ended up being. If we had actually made good draft decisions and had good coaching, Manning would not have had to carry the team. Since we missed in the draft and failed to address the same issues that have plagued us for years, the inability to stop the run, poor special teams, etc... it appears that we've build the team only around Manning. It was not the intent, it was just the end result. If the Colts draft Luck, it doesn't mean that we will continue to miss on our future draft picks. We can draft Luck and still draft other outstanding players that can contribute to this team.

[BmoreColt]

Unfortunatley, that's what the problem ended up being. If we had actually made good draft decisions and had good coaching, Manning would not have had to carry the team. Since we missed in the draft and failed to address the same issues that have plagued us for years, the inability to stop the run, poor special teams, etc... it appears that we've build the team only around Manning. It was not the intent, it was just the end result. If the Colts draft Luck, it doesn't mean that we will continue to miss on our future draft picks. We can draft Luck and still draft other outstanding players that can contribute to this team.

For someone who makes logical sense I would think you would see the major problem of having both on the roster....

[jskinnz]

The point and the problem is building around one player again and putting all your eggs in one basket...what if luck isn't what they say he is.. It's back to square one

But what if he is exactly who they say he is?

That thinking is crazy to me. If after all the homework is done and the draft board leads you to Luck, you take the pick and don't think a 2nd thing about it. You do not worry that he may bust but simply go where the work you did tells you to go.

[UndecidedFrog]

...what if luck isn't what they say he is...

But what if he is exactly who they say he is?

1) Is the bust probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

Put it another way...

2) Is the success probability the same for luck as it is for a 4th or 5th round QB in this year's draft?

3) If the Colts decide to trade the #1 overall pick, and receive multiple picks in return, shouldn't they pick a 4th or 5th round QB, or is Orlavsky/Painter/Collins the acceptable backup plan?

4) If Peyton seems healthy on March 8, but gets injured in the first game, such that his is out for the rest of the year, what do you think will be the season's W-L record with the backup plan you chose?

I would appreciate your thoughts.