Could Washington NT Danny Shelton fall to #29?

[horseshoeblue22]

A little background information regarding Shelton's draft stock: At the end of the CFB season, Shelton was described as a "early-to-middle round talent" who propelled himself into first round conversation by having a stellar final year. As more and more discussion went into the draft, he seemed to be picking up attention as a potential top 10 to 15 pick. The hype got a little out of control, until just recently Mike Mayock moved Shelton from #2 D-Lineman all the way to #4. (Behind Leonard Williams, Arik Armstead and Malcom Brown)

 

Here are Mayock's comments about Shelton (paraphrased): "A lot of teams I talked to really like Danny Shelton, but a lot of them see him as more of a two-down run-stuffing specialist. If that's the case, then I could see him falling into the second round. There may be teams that are looking at him as a three-down lineman, who can fit in their sub-packages and blitz sets. If you are a team interested in Shelton, you have to ask yourself, what is his snap-count going to look like in your defense? If he is only on the field 40-50% of the time, he's not going to be an ideal top 10-15 pick. There are also questions about his overall athleticism (5.6 second 40 yard dash) and concerns about his productivity before his final college year. But he's a player that had 9 sacks his final year, out-producing most LBs and pass rushers at the college level, so it's hard to question his pass-rushing potential."

 

I think Shelton's a guy who will go in the first round, but from everyone I have talked to, I would expect Armstead and Brown to be off the board before Shelton's name is called."

 

What do you think? Could Shelton fall to us in the first round? I think, if he does, our front office would be ecstatic to make that selection.

[BrentMc11]

The Colts would love this, but with all of the teams ahead of the Colts that need DTs I just do not see it happening.  I would love this too!  

[RealityIsLuck]

I doubt it. I don't think Cleveland passes at 12, and if he's still there at 19 no way they pass twice. I think SD, HOU, SF, DET, ARI, DEN, DAL are all good fits, and would take him.

[akcolt]

That' same logic can be applied to guys like Carl Davis and Jordan Phillips as far as snap count.

I believe Davis interviewed poorly saying he should have about a 25 play count coming off as lazy and arrogant. Just what I've read.

[ColtRider]

A little background information regarding Shelton's draft stock: At the end of the CFB season, Shelton was described as a "early-to-middle round talent" who propelled himself into first round conversation by having a stellar final year. As more and more discussion went into the draft, he seemed to be picking up attention as a potential top 10 to 15 pick. The hype got a little out of control, until just recently Mike Mayock moved Shelton from #2 D-Lineman all the way to #4. (Behind Leonard Williams, Arik Armstead and Malcom Brown)

Here are Mayock's comments about Shelton (paraphrased): "A lot of teams I talked to really like Danny Shelton, but a lot of them see him as more of a two-down run-stuffing specialist. If that's the case, then I could see him falling into the second round. There may be teams that are looking at him as a three-down lineman, who can fit in their sub-packages and blitz sets. If you are a team interested in Shelton, you have to ask yourself, what is his snap-count going to look like in your defense? If he is only on the field 40-50% of the time, he's not going to be an ideal top 10-15 pick. There are also questions about his overall athleticism (5.6 second 40 yard dash) and concerns about his productivity before his final college year. But he's a player that had 9 sacks his final year, out-producing most LBs and pass rushers at the college level, so it's hard to question his pass-rushing potential."

I think Shelton's a guy who will go in the first round, but from everyone I have talked to, I would expect Armstead and Brown to be off the board before Shelton's name is called."

What do you think? Could Shelton fall to us in the first round? I think, if he does, our front office would be ecstatic to make that selection.

There's no way Danny Shelton gets to 29, IMO. The guy is far too valuable a pick for stopping the run (there's that line again) for just about any team needing DL help. I hope he does fall that far, but unlikely. Eddie Goldman from Florida State seems more realistic a pick for the Colts at 29. Concerning Mayock's comments about being slow. I think the NFL training from the Colts can improve on that. But the ability to stop running backs usually requires good field of vision, quickness with arms, strength with body, and what I call "pulling strength."He has all of these.

[Deano1818]

I think he ends up in Chicago

[wig]

I will be absolutely shocked if he falls past 19.

[horseshoeblue22]

I doubt it. I don't think Cleveland passes at 12, and if he's still there at 19 no way they pass twice. I think SD, HOU, SF, DET, ARI, DEN, DAL are all good fits, and would take him.

Cleveland could realistically package their picks for a Mariota type or pick Malcom Brown or a guy like Armstead...eliminating their need for a guy like Shelton. I think Mayock, if his information is correct, is suggesting that Shelton has been overhyped up until this point in the process. Basically an admission that Shelton is NOT going to be a top 15 pick...which everyone, including Mayock, assumed he would be a few weeks ago.

Is it possible that the football media market and mock draft enthuiasts are rating this guy much higher then NFL pro scouts and GMs are? Basing this question solely on Mayock's information, of course.

[horseshoeblue22]

I've seen several mock drafts projecting Arik Armstead as a 25-32 overall guy and Shelton as a top 15 pick. If Mayock's comments are any indication, it seems possible that Armstead is the top 15 prospect, and Shelton could go off the board any time after Armstead and Texas DT Malcom Brown.

[BOTT]

I think he ends up in Chicago

They aren't taking a 34 NT in the the top 10. Plus, has Fangio ever used a behemoth NT before?

[Boiler_Colt]

Anything is possible but I find it highly unlikely. But he is only a fit for a 3-4 2 gap type scheme though IMO. I get the concerns on snap count. I don't see Cleveland passing on him. SD, Pittsburgh and Baltimore could also be options. I don't see him fitting into a 4-3 scheme like Cinci, Detroit or Dallas. Denver needs a DT but Wade Phillips runs a one gap 3-4 that has never really had a massive NT.

[wig]

I've seen several mock drafts projecting Arik Armstead as a 25-32 overall guy and Shelton as a top 15 pick. If Mayock's comments are any indication, it seems possible that Armstead is the top 15 prospect, and Shelton could go off the board any time after Armstead and Texas DT Malcom Brown.

Not sure how much AA and Shelton have to do with each other. Completely different positions.

[The Peytonator]

Pure NTs rarely go in the first round, much less early in the first. Dan Williams is the last one that I can remember back in 2010, and he went 26th. Shelton will most likely drop to the second round. Me personally, I wouldn't want to draft him in the first, but I wouldn't be too upset if we did. His position has been devalued almost as much as the RB in the last decade. Teams want their linemen to be fleeter of foot and to be able to get to the passer. 

[NewColtsFan]

If Danny Shelton falls to 29 it's Christmas in Indianapolis in April!!

 

And if Grigson passed on him,  I'd be very, very, very, very unhappy.

[wig]

Pure NTs rarely go in the first round, much less early in the first. Dan Williams is the last one that I can remember back in 2010, and he went 26th. Shelton will most likely drop to the second round. Me personally, I wouldn't want to draft him in the first, but I wouldn't be too upset if we did. His position has been devalued almost as much as the RB in the last decade. Teams want their linemen to be fleeter of foot and to be able to get to the passer.

Poe. A lot of people on here wanted him, but his stock rose WAY too much.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Stranger things have happened.... just not something to count on by any means though.

[backshoulderfade]

Poe. A lot of people on here wanted him, but his stock rose WAY too much.

Not that I dislike Fleener, but could you imagine if we got Poe with our 2nd.

[wig]

Not that I dislike Fleener, but could you imagine if we got Poe with our 2nd.

Wouldn't have had Hilton, Allen or Fleener at the very least. He went what, 12?

[Hoose]

Armstead is having a late rise in the mocks, etc. But that isn't based upon production; its on potential. He seems to be a natural as a DE in a 3-4 D. I can see him going to SF, a team whose D is aging rapidly, and that needs an upgrade for their front 3. He won't make it to the Colts, and neither will Shelton, who is a completely different player. One who would fit perfectly with the Colts. But also, as many have already said, he's a great fit with a number of other teams picking earlier. Don't expect him to be there at 29. I'm sure the Colts don't.

[backshoulderfade]

Wouldn't have had Hilton, Allen or Fleener at the very least. He went what, 12?

I meant if he did reach 34

[The Peytonator]

Poe. A lot of people on here wanted him, but his stock rose WAY too much.

 

 

I forgot about Poe, but I'd consider him to be far more than a one dimensional run stuffer. He may line up at the Nose, but he's also in on pass rush downs. You could consider Marcel Dareus to be in the same boat. I don't foresee Shelton being anything more than a two down player.

[wig]

I forgot about Poe, but I'd consider him to be far more than a one dimensional run stuffer. He may line up at the Nose, but he's also in on pass rush downs. You could consider Marcel Dareus to be in the same boat. I don't foresee Shelton being anything more than a two down player.

I don't think he'll be as good on third down as either of them, but then again, I didn't think either of them would be what they are. If you look at them all coming out of college, forgetting what two have done on Sundays, it's hard to say they were much, if any, better than Shelton. Poe had pretty awful production in college and if his combine matched his collegiate stats, he was a second or third day pick.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I forgot about Poe, but I'd consider him to be far more than a one dimensional run stuffer. He may line up at the Nose, but he's also in on pass rush downs. You could consider Marcel Dareus to be in the same boat. I don't foresee Shelton being anything more than a two down player.

 

He may never be a pass rush specialist, but not all scouts thinks he's a 2 gap, 2 down run stuffer either.

 

{click to enlarge}   Danny Shelton:

[UKColt13]

No chance. I don't think he even makes it out of the top 15.

[NewColtsFan]

I think Shelton is a 2-down DL for teams that play a 3-4 like the Colts.    He could play on 3rd down, but only if he keeps his weight down.     Once he gets his weight up, he's less effective at collapsing the pocket.

 

But I've read he can play DT/NT in a 4-3 and would not have to come off the field for most teams. 

 

So,  while I can see him falling into the teens,  or even -- GASP!! -- into the 20's,  it's hard to see him falling all the way through the 20's to the Colts at 29.

 

He's just too talented to fall that far.    But if he somehow does,  I hope we hurry that card up to the podium with his name on it.

 

As Mr. Irsay says he wants,  that's a guy who can stop the run in January.

[GwinnettColt]

Oh, baby.  I would love this.  

 

If not, I'm reserving judgment on who I'd want next.  Carl Davis from Iowa?  Jordan Phillips (who I feel is good but a risk with injury history).  

 

I'd like to see DT in the first and safety in the second....maybe OL in the third.  

[GwinnettColt]

I think Shelton is a 2-down DL for teams that play a 3-4 like the Colts.    He could play on 3rd down, but only if he keeps his weight down.     Once he gets his weight up, he's less effective at collapsing the pocket.

 

But I've read he can play DT/NT in a 4-3 and would not have to come off the field for most teams. 

 

So,  while I can see him falling into the teens,  or even -- GASP!! -- into the 20's,  it's hard to see him falling all the way through the 20's to the Colts at 29.

 

He's just too talented to fall that far.    But if he somehow does,  I hope we hurry that card up to the podium with his name on it.

 

As Mr. Irsay says he wants,  that's a guy who can stop the run in January.

 

Extremely rational post.  

[Superman]

That' same logic can be applied to guys like Carl Davis and Jordan Phillips as far as snap count.

I believe Davis interviewed poorly saying he should have about a 25 play count coming off as lazy and arrogant. Just what I've read.

 

The difference between Shelton and Phillips is that Phillips actually has pass rush ability. He's just a big DL that shouldn't play more than 25-30 snaps a game, for stamina and effectiveness. People are talking about Shelton as a two down defender because his impact on passing downs is greatly diminished. Setting aside the questions about a snap count -- which applies to most 320+ pound DL -- he's just not likely to be as effective a pass rusher as some of the other guys.

[BleedBlu8792]

Let him go early. He's just another overrated and overhyped Pac-12 DL. Hawaii, E. Washington, and Georgia State(arguably the worst offense in D1) over-inflated Shelton's production. I'd still rather have Goldman or Phillips anyways if we're looking at guys who can play at NT. There's going to be a highly disappointed team after they take Shelton high and realize he isn't doing what he did to E. Washington or Georgia State. Oklahoma State probably had their worst OL in YEARS, and they pretty much neutralized Shelton in their bowl game.

 

Let someone else buy him high....