Another Year in blue for #12

[Valpo2004]

I don't think it quite works that way.    I'm not expert, but even after his 5th year is done,  the Colts could drop the franchise tag on him,  and they could do it three straight years.

 

He'd be getting a huge number each year,  but no huge signing bonus, which is what the players want.

 

The downside for the Colts is that his cap number would be huge and make it difficult for the team to keep quality players around him.

 

I hope Superman will see this thread and weigh in.....

 

The tag does give some leverage but it can also be painful cap wise.  So I still say that waiting to the end of the contract year gives Luck leverage.  

 

Re-signing before then provides players security against losing a large amount of value due to injury.  However I will point out to be entirely fair, I think this sort of leverage works better on players who where drafted later.  First round draft picks, especially #1 overall guys are already multi-millionares anyways.  So Luck's need for security is not nearly as great as say TY Hilton's.  Because Luck's rookie deal was 22.1 Million fully guaranteed (Not including the option year)

 

TY Hilton's was only 2.6 mil over 4 years.  

[Superman]

No doubt....   and I don't think the Colts will ever have to use it with Luck.

 

I'm only saying it's in the back pocket in case of emergency. 

 

Right. I don't think this contract issue is going to be difficult when the time comes. But the franchise tag is a little bit of leverage for the team. It doesn't have to be used as a threat, but it's mere existence is a factor.

[ColtRider]

Just to say Superman an excellent, well thought out and well constructed reply. People are panicking about the 2012 draft class being resigned but as obvious at it sounds you hit the nail on the head. Draft well, develop talent well and you will be in a sustainable position of strength. For me the way GB run the FO side of things is the ideal.

I agree with everything from both of you guys. I do think, however, that it's just not whether to extend now from "pure" financial reasoning. Although, it probably is around 80-90% of it. Too many other things enter the equation as well. I put that around 10-20% of it.

Hype, focus, end goal, and a "no hurry" synopsis. It makes much more sense to wait.

ONE

[Defjamz26]

To me, it's six in one hand, half dozen in the other.

 

On one hand, the Colts probably have more leverage to negotiate a long term deal with some yearly savings, now. Like Valpo is saying, Luck getting a big contract now, without having to play another year on the rookie deal, might be an incentive to leave some money on the table. He trades somewhat high risk / high reward for less risk / somewhat less reward. 

 

On the other hand, extending Luck now would cost more money now. We could run through some scenarios, which I've done in the past, but the long and short is that the long term savings are practically offset by the increased short term expense. And because the cap is expected to continue to rise, the opportunity cost of increasing the short term expense instead of the long term expense might not be beneficial for the team. (In other words, extending Luck now might cost us room for another contract now, whereas extending him later won't, even if his price is higher, because the cap will have gone up.)

 

All told, I don't think this is going to be a difficult situation to manage for the Colts. They aren't letting Luck go anywhere. They'll probably make him the highest paid player in the league after 2015. I doubt that he'll have to play on the 2016 option without a long term deal, and of course that means I don't think they'll be franchise tagging him in the years after that. They would if they had to, but I don't think it's going to come to that. I think it gets done sometime next year, prior to camp. (I think Castonzo, who is on a fifth year option in 2015, will get done sometime prior to this year's camp.)

 

And while paying him top tier money will make cap management more difficult, I think the Colts front office has a pretty good handle on how to structure contracts without putting the team in bad shape. I did some projections earlier this offseason, and even with Luck, Castonzo, Hilton, Allen and Fleener on new contracts, I think the Colts can still be more than $20m under the cap every offseason. The question is whether the staff will draft and develop well enough moving forward.

 

All the more reason that Grigson is under pressure to hit in the draft. Like it or not, Luck's contract is going to effect the team in the long term. Maybe not now, but eventually you won't be able to go after the FA's we went after, or extend every player because the QB is the premium position in football, and is worth every penny.

 

You have to be able to draft, develop, and replace or be like the Patriots where you can make the most with super cheap FA's. Cowboys are figuring it out now because of Romo's contract.

[Superman]

All the more reason that Grigson is under pressure to hit in the draft. Like it or not, Luck's contract is going to effect the team in the long term. Maybe not now, but eventually you won't be able to go after the FA's we went after, or extend every player because the QB is the premium position in football, and is worth every penny.

 

You have to be able to draft, develop, and replace or be like the Patriots where you can make the most with super cheap FA's. Cowboys are figuring it out now because of Romo's contract.

 

With the cap going up, it's not going to be that difficult to navigate around a top flight QB contract. But yeah, the key is obviously going to be drafting well, and doing so consistently.

 

To me, the Ravens are the model. It's why I hoped Irsay would hire Eric DeCosta in 2012; Grigson was my second choice. And that's not really a complaint about Grigson, just saying that I think a guy coming from the Ravens would have the same belief and strategy. And still, that's different from actually doing it every season, for a long time. 

[ColtRider]

With the cap going up, it's not going to be that difficult to navigate around a top flight QB contract. But yeah, the key is obviously going to be drafting well, and doing so consistently.

To me, the Ravens are the model. It's why I hoped Irsay would hire Eric DeCosta in 2012; Grigson was my second choice. And that's not really a complaint about Grigson, just saying that I think a guy coming from the Ravens would have the same belief and strategy. And still, that's different from actually doing it every season, for a long time.

If there is one word that is over-used with winning NFL organizations it would be ... Consistent! ... and all of it's various forms and definitions. This is the __ KEY __ word. Take a look at multiple Super Bowl winning franchises over the years. You will find this word ad nauseam. Superman over uses this word, as do I, and others for a reason. It is __THE __ torched word for success.

[dgambill]

To me, it's six in one hand, half dozen in the other.

 

On one hand, the Colts probably have more leverage to negotiate a long term deal with some yearly savings, now. Like Valpo is saying, Luck getting a big contract now, without having to play another year on the rookie deal, might be an incentive to leave some money on the table. He trades somewhat high risk / high reward for less risk / somewhat less reward. 

 

On the other hand, extending Luck now would cost more money now. We could run through some scenarios, which I've done in the past, but the long and short is that the long term savings are practically offset by the increased short term expense. And because the cap is expected to continue to rise, the opportunity cost of increasing the short term expense instead of the long term expense might not be beneficial for the team. (In other words, extending Luck now might cost us room for another contract now, whereas extending him later won't, even if his price is higher, because the cap will have gone up.)

 

All told, I don't think this is going to be a difficult situation to manage for the Colts. They aren't letting Luck go anywhere. They'll probably make him the highest paid player in the league after 2015. I doubt that he'll have to play on the 2016 option without a long term deal, and of course that means I don't think they'll be franchise tagging him in the years after that. They would if they had to, but I don't think it's going to come to that. I think it gets done sometime next year, prior to camp. (I think Castonzo, who is on a fifth year option in 2015, will get done sometime prior to this year's camp.)

 

And while paying him top tier money will make cap management more difficult, I think the Colts front office has a pretty good handle on how to structure contracts without putting the team in bad shape. I did some projections earlier this offseason, and even with Luck, Castonzo, Hilton, Allen and Fleener on new contracts, I think the Colts can still be more than $20m under the cap every offseason. The question is whether the staff will draft and develop well enough moving forward.

I agree. You get to fit more in under the cap now by waiting to re-sign Luck. His value isn't likely to go higher than the highest paid qb already. So instead of locking him into 24 million you lock him into maybe 26 million...as the cap goes up that loss of a couple million each year doesn't hurt much and you get the benefit of the saved money THIS year to build a contender. Luck is likely to get a huge contract...and it likely will be extended down the road a couple of times to save cap space as Manning did and others have as well. One thing that people aren't bringing to the table is that maybe LUCK doesn't WANT to sign the contract now. Perhaps he wants to wait to see how much the cap goes up and see what guys like Cam, Wison, and Eli get. When they set the new high he will be able to come to management and ask for more. No reason he can't be betting on himself that he can risk a year of lower salary to lock up that huge contract after others set the market for him. Personally I believe it is a combination of the two...neither he nor management NEED to get this deal done right now and both plan to make sure Luck is the highest paid player in football after this year. The market will be more clear and everyone knew this was the plan to begin with. Colts get savings now and Luck gets a clearer picture of his value next year when other contracts are finalized. Even with an injury I couldn't see Luck losing major money unless he simply couldn't play again (which that is what insurance is for and as a multimillionaire I'm sure he has that in place).

 

Interesting ones to me will be TY and Constanzo. TY because the WR market has been so crazy. I would imagine a Maclin type deal would be best case scenerio for us but realize he could get more based off his production. With WRs like Dez and DT signed to tags its hard to tell what the current market will bear for a franchise WR. I think if Peyton wasn't coming back DT would be signed already but with the luxury of playing with him again no reason not to bet on yourself. That said Denver may let him walk next year and transition after Manning to a more run first team and use Lattimer as a replacement. Dez just has the baggage holding his contract back.

 

Constanzo is the one that is very intriguing....I mean he has to get more than Cherilus thats a given...so right off he is going to be in the top 10 paid tackles in the league...he hasn't been injured and he protects Lucks blind side. That said he isn't elite LT but we likely will have to pay him like one...so we get to the meat of the question. What is he worth? 10 million? I kinda would have liked us to have moved him to RT where I think he could have been elite quality and brought in a franchise LT when we got Cherilus but that was just me. It may not have been possible at the time but to possibly have the highest paid RT and a top 5 paid LT when neither I would classify as elite...thats tough pill to swallow. It will be interesting to see where his deal ends up. I just would have been much happier to pay Anthony the 7-8 million a year to be a RT than Gosdner and I'm not sure he is worthy of top 5 paid LT....but since we already are paying Gosdner that type of money to play an inferior position...well thats ammo for Anthony to say my value is higher. Good thing the cap is going up....had we been in a stagnet market we would likely not be in such a great position cap wise.

 

Hopefully we eventualy do have problems signing all our own guys...because that would mean the guys we draft are outperforming their contracts and likely playing at a high level...be a great problem to have. As it stands we have a handful right now to concern with...but we need some life blood in the draft...can't play this FA game forever.