Luck and interceptions

[Arby0359]

I'm pretty tired of hearing (in other places mainly) about Luck's "excessive" interceptions. I don't have the stats but it seems to me that most of them are throws that are in game do or die situations (desperation for the team). I know he, just like a lot of grade A quarterbacks throw them by stupid mistakes but most I think aren't. I mean when the RB can't get no where and your down by 21-35-42 point you gotta just go for it. and that doesn't look good on his stats. hopefully this year the running game and passing game will be up to par so he can loose some of them desperation throws.. thoughts

[superrep1967]

I'm pretty tired of hearing (in other places mainly) about Luck's "excessive" interceptions. I don't have the stats but it seems to me that most of them are throws that are in game do or die situations (desperation for the team). I know he, just like a lot of grade A quarterbacks throw them by stupid mistakes but most I think aren't. I mean when the RB can't get no where and your down by 21-35-42 point you gotta just go for it. and that doesn't look good on his stats. hopefully this year the running game and passing game will be up to par so he can loose some of them desperation throws.. thoughts

The reasons for the INT's was that he was under pressure a lot and still trying to make a play. If we can get the o-line playing at a high level and get a solid running game then the INT's will come down. 

[southwest1]

If we can create holes for Gore, Boom Herron, & Ballard, I'm confident Luck's picks will diminish rapidly. Andrew has got to play more relaxed against the Patriots though. He always seem to throw one bad pass against NE that he really shouldn't. He'll work it out. Part of that is his need or compulsion to do so much. Once Gore starts clicking, Luck will breath easier I think. 

 

PS Skip Bayless with his premature coronation nonsense can kiss my caboose BTW. Luck will win a SB hopefully 2 before he's done. 

 

I also want see LB Trent Cole give INDY's offense so additional touches or scoop & score opportunities too. 

[TKnight24]

2 interceptions against Denver in the playoffs are prime example of Luck making bone head throws. He tries to make plays too much instead accepting the defense won on the play and throwing it away

Has nothing to do with the running game as much as people blame it. Some picks yes, but not all. Some are just Luck not knowing how to live to fight another down

[Synthetic]

He wins more playoff games than your former QB did who waited till the playoffs to start throwing his interceptions and having those epic losses at home in the first round. 

 

 

You guys are spoiled rotten. You win 11 games every year playing a pathetic division and even manage to beat teams in the playoffs, and you also have the best young quarterback in the league and still find something to nitpick over. 

[TKnight24]

The reasons for the INT's was that he was under pressure a lot and still trying to make a play. If we can get the o-line playing at a high level and get a solid running game then the INT's will come down.

*Points to his above post*

Being pressured is not to blame for all the int's

[dw49]

He wins more playoff games than your former QB did who waited till the playoffs to start throwing his interceptions and having those epic losses at home in the first round. 

 

 

You guys are spoiled rotten. You win 11 games every year playing a pathetic division and even manage to beat teams in the playoffs, and you also have the best young quarterback in the league and still find something to nitpick over. 

 

 

You said a mouthful...

[Superman]

He wins more playoff games than your former QB did who waited till the playoffs to start throwing his interceptions and having those epic losses at home in the first round. 

 

 

You guys are spoiled rotten. You win 11 games every year playing a pathetic division and even manage to beat teams in the playoffs, and you also have the best young quarterback in the league and still find something to nitpick over. 

 

Remember you said this the next time you start spitting and cussing about Drew Brees and Sean Payton...

[jseg18]

Our formula to be a legit team , and to help out Andrew is to play like we did schematically against the niners. Run the football, play action, get andrew into manageable 3rd downs, and play physical on defense.

[zibby43]

2 interceptions against Denver in the playoffs are prime example of Luck making bone head throws. He tries to make plays too much instead accepting the defense won on the play and throwing it away

Has nothing to do with the running game as much as people blame it. Some picks yes, but not all. Some are just Luck not knowing how to live to fight another down

 

Those 2 interceptions cost us absolutely nothing though.  They occurred in situations where a QB can take chances.  They weren't red zone picks.  They weren't costly 1st/2nd down picks. 

 

They were both on third down (both third and long, I believe).  They effectively became punts without the threat of a punt block or punt return.

 

I think if you go back and watch the tape, you would agree.

[southwest1]

 

 

 

You guys are spoiled rotten. You win 11 games every year playing a pathetic division and even manage to beat teams in the playoffs, and you also have the best young quarterback in the league and still find something to nitpick over. 

Yes, you're right we are blessed no doubt. I remind myself of that every time we come back from a hole. I want see more complete games from start to finish like how we dominated the Bengals 27-0 in week 7. 

 

Oh yeah Bogie, if I start talking trash against the Patriots, I give you permission to slap me until we prove INDY can hang with their squad & hopefully squeeze out a victory. SW1 does that every year in this rivalry game & every year NE owns us. I need to zip it until we exorcise this AFC foe. LOL! 

 

Kill em with kindness that's my strategy now. Let's see if that works & flips our Foxboro loosing trend. It's worth a shot man. I'm desperate. 

[Superman]

Those 2 interceptions cost us absolutely nothing though.  They occurred in situations where a QB can take chances.  They weren't red zone picks.  They weren't costly 1st/2nd down picks. 

 

They were both on third down (both third and long, I believe).  They effectively became punts without the threat of a punt block or punt return.

 

I think if you go back and watch the tape, you would agree.

 

Those two picks didn't hurt the team, and could have been measured risks. But they still weren't good plays. He'd have been better off throwing the ball away and letting McAfee punt. 

[zibby43]

Those two picks didn't hurt the team, and could have been measured risks. But they still weren't good plays. He'd have been better off throwing the ball away and letting McAfee punt. 

 

True.  Although the Denver game wasn't one of Pat's best (in terms of punting). 

 

4 (Punts)

46 (LNG)

42.2 (AVG)

37.5

(Net AVG)

 

Special teams were a near-nightmare that game.

[TKnight24]

Those 2 interceptions cost us absolutely nothing though. They occurred in situations where a QB can take chances. They weren't red zone picks. They weren't costly 1st/2nd down picks.

They were both on third down (both third and long, I believe). They effectively became punts without the threat of a punt block or punt return.

I think if you go back and watch the tape, you would agree.

A turnover is a turnover PERIOD

Stop saying it was basically punts. You don't know what Boomstick could've pulled off if those picks weren't thrown and he did actually punt the ball

Muffed Punt, Fumble, anything could've happened

Bottom line is Andrew forces plays that aren't there regardless of the situation

[Superman]

True.  Although the Denver game wasn't one of Pat's best (in terms of punting). 

 

4 (Punts)

46 (LNG)

42.2 (AVG)

37.5

(Net AVG)

 

Special teams were a near-nightmare that game.

 

I remember Pat's first punt being ugly, but the second one pinned them inside the five. 

 

Just to be clear, both picks were long passes on third and long. I didn't lose any sleep over either of them. But those picks have been characterized as "basically punts," and I don't agree with that. You throw a ball up for grabs like that, and it might come all the way back. A punt is usually going to result in better field position and has less risk of a long return.

[That Guy]

Andrew Luck and interceptions go together like trailer parks and tornados. You don't want them, but you have to learn to live with them.

[Indyfan4life]

Sometimes Luck does force throws, that has been well documented. However, other times the INTs come off of tipped balls when our guys don't catch them. Those are going to happen, that's a given. But I really think in times of duress, he really needs to check it down more, lower his head and run, throw it away or just take the sack. I'd rather us lose 6-9 yards on a sack and have to punt than force a bad throw and it turn into a interception. He did get much better at checking it down and throwing the ball away last season, that's for sure.

[Bluefire4]

Andrew will be just fine.

[ponyboy]

A turnover is a turnover PERIOD

Stop saying it was basically punts. You don't know what Boomstick could've pulled off if those picks weren't thrown and he did actually punt the ball

Muffed Punt, Fumble, anything could've happened

 

And the pass could have been completed or a PI penalty -- especially if you have a physical receiver that excels at pulling in contested balls.   Actually both of those scenarios are more likely than the muffed punt or fumble.   Sometimes it's worth the risk if the alternative is almost certainly a punt or your at the end of the half/game.

 

It looks the same on the stat sheet but not all turnovers have the same negative impact.

[Superman]

And the pass could have been completed or a PI penalty -- especially if you have a physical receiver that excels at pulling in contested balls.   Actually both of those scenarios are more likely than the muffed punt or fumble.   Sometimes it's worth the risk if the alternative is almost certainly a punt or your at the end of the half/game.

 

It looks the same on the stat sheet but not all turnovers have the same negative impact.

 

We don't have that.

 

Either way, throwing up 50/50 balls and hoping for PI isn't smart QBing. Again, I'm not trying to make a big deal over those interceptions, I just don't agree with this defense. They were bad decisions, bottom line, IMO.

[Flash7]

Andrew Luck led the league with 73 plays of 20+ yard pass completions. Peyton Manning was second with 66. Coincidentally, Luck had 16 INTs and Manning had 15, while Tom Brady, (who had 44 plays of 20+ yards) had 9 INTS. There seams to be a direct positive correlation between deep passing offenses and INTs compared to dink and dunk offenses. 

 

If you throw for 40 TDs, 16 INTs is somewhat reasonable. Of course, we all would like for less INTs, but overall, it''s not too bad. It's not Blake Bortles bad, 11 TDs to 17 INTs in less games played.

[braveheartcolt]

Andrew Luck led the league with 73 plays of 20+ yard pass completions. Peyton Manning was second with 66. Coincidentally, Luck had 16 INTs and Manning had 15, while Tom Brady, (who had 44 plays of 20+ yards) had 9 INTS. There seams to be a direct positive correlation between deep passing offenses and INTs compared to dink and dunk offenses.

If you throw for 40 TDs, 16 INTs is somewhat reasonable. Of course, we all would like for less INTs, but overall, it''s not too bad. It's not Blake Bortles bad, 11 TDs to 17 INTs in less games played.

Nailed. Well played. Darn it though, I kept saying we should have drafted Robocop over Luck.

[ponyboy]

We don't have that.

 

Either way, throwing up 50/50 balls and hoping for PI isn't smart QBing. Again, I'm not trying to make a big deal over those interceptions, I just don't agree with this defense. They were bad decisions, bottom line, IMO.

 

I'm just making the general point that there are circumstances where it makes sense to take these chances.  The hail mary at the end of the game/half is the obvious case but there are others as well.    It's not always a bad decision to take a chance on an INT, it depends on the circumstances.

[Superman]

Andrew Luck led the league with 73 plays of 20+ yard pass completions. Peyton Manning was second with 66. Coincidentally, Luck had 16 INTs and Manning had 15, while Tom Brady, (who had 44 plays of 20+ yards) had 9 INTS. There seams to be a direct positive correlation between deep passing offenses and INTs compared to dink and dunk offenses. 

 

If you throw for 40 TDs, 16 INTs is somewhat reasonable. Of course, we all would like for less INTs, but overall, it''s not too bad. It's not Blake Bortles bad, 11 TDs to 17 INTs in less games played.

 

All your numbers are sound, as is your logic.

 

My one beef is that, while it's important to weigh interceptions against TDs and total attempts and deep passing and all that, the total number of possessions per game is still about the same. Doesn't matter how much you throw, or how often you throw deep, or how many TDs you have. When you give away possession, you're making it harder on your team. That's why raw turnovers are still important when you look at a QB's stats. All told, 16 interceptions is still 16 fewer chances to score points.

 

And then there's the emotion/momentum aspect, which is entirely impossible to quantify. But still, the other team would rather get a long interception on third down than a punt on fourth down. 

[Flash7]

All your numbers are sound, as is your logic.

 

My one beef is that, while it's important to weigh interceptions against TDs and total attempts and deep passing and all that, the total number of possessions per game is still about the same. Doesn't matter how much you throw, or how often you throw deep, or how many TDs you have. When you give away possession, you're making it harder on your team. That's why raw turnovers are still important when you look at a QB's stats. All told, 16 interceptions is still 16 fewer chances to score points.

 

And then there's the emotion/momentum aspect, which is entirely impossible to quantify. But still, the other team would rather get a long interception on third down than a punt on fourth down. 

What also had me a little worried was how often Luck was fumbling the ball. It was uncharacteristically high this season. Many of the fumbles occurred where Luck actually saw the defender and instead of securing the ball, he attempted to make a play, which backfired. 

 

Luck did throw 16 interceptions. These interceptions should be looked at individually because some of them resulted from WRs running wrong routes (Fleener running through the zone rather than sitting, etc...), and some from non-calls by the refs, (T.Y. being dragged down while the safety comes in for the pick) and some of them were plain bad reads and throws by Luck. Let's also not forget the many easy interceptions that the defenders dropped. The total amount of INTs could have been more.

 

Overall, there is room for improvement. I think with all of the positives that Luck brings to the table,we can forgive some of the negatives.

[NewColtsFan]

A turnover is a turnover PERIOD

Stop saying it was basically punts. You don't know what Boomstick could've pulled off if those picks weren't thrown and he did actually punt the ball

Muffed Punt, Fumble, anything could've happened

Bottom line is Andrew forces plays that aren't there regardless of the situation

 

Yes,  Andrew forces plays that aren't there.   Completely true.

 

But, no,  a turnover is NOT always a turnover.     There are circumstances where a deep interception late in a half or game is a punt.    Doesn't mean it's OK,  but it's less bad than a turnover in a different situation, like with the game on the line.

 

Not all turnovers are created equal.    Some are worse than others.

[Johnny Bui]

When teams play the colts.  The keys to winning is run the ball and play the pass.  That equals a win.  This is all that needs to be said.  What we choose to do is up to us.

[Superman]

What also had me a little worried was how often Luck was fumbling the ball. It was uncharacteristically high this season. Many of the fumbles occurred where Luck actually saw the defender and instead of securing the ball, he attempted to make a play, which backfired. 

 

Luck did throw 16 interceptions. These interceptions should be looked at individually because some of them resulted from WRs running wrong routes (Fleener running through the zone rather than sitting, etc...), and some from non-calls by the refs, (T.Y. being dragged down while the safety comes in for the pick) and some of them were plain bad reads and throws by Luck. Let's also not forget the many easy interceptions that the defenders dropped. The total amount of INTs could have been more.

 

Overall, there is room for improvement. I think with all of the positives that Luck brings to the table,we can forgive some of the negatives.

 

That's another game I don't play. Maybe it's worth a closer look, but usually, bad luck interceptions are made up for by the good luck non-interceptions. I'm sure some guys get the short end of the stick, but at the end of the day, all that really matters is whether the ball is picked off or not.

 

I agree about the fumbles, though. Luck was just a little too careless at times last year, whether it was trying too hard or just not feeling pressure. Some thought I was too hard on him, but I think he did some boneheaded things at times.

 

Of course, like you say, he also threw 40 TDs and led the league in yardage. He's easily our best playmaker. So I'm not complaining about him, but I don't think that doesn't mean we can't objectively discuss some of his shortcomings. End of the day, it's all forgiven. He's literally the single most important component to this team, and it's not even close.

[TKnight24]

Yes, Andrew forces plays that aren't there. Completely true.

But, no, a turnover is NOT always a turnover. There are circumstances where a deep interception late in a half or game is a punt. Doesn't mean it's OK, but it's less bad than a turnover in a different situation, like with the game on the line.

Not all turnovers are created equal. Some are worse than others.

Keep telling yourself that, and we'll keep having these threads

[Fx Stryker]

 There are circumstances where a deep interception late in a half or game is a punt. 

 

No they aren't. I hate that statement. That's sugarcoating a mistake.

[ColtRider]

Yes, you're right we are blessed no doubt. I remind myself of that every time we come back from a hole. I want see more complete games from start to finish like how we dominated the Bengals 27-0 in week 7.

Oh yeah Bogie, if I start talking trash against the Patriots, I give you permission to slap me until we prove INDY can hang with their squad & hopefully squeeze out a victory. SW1 does that every year in this rivalry game & every year NE owns us. I need to zip it until we exorcise this AFC foe. LOL!

Kill em with kindness that's my strategy now. Let's see if that works & flips our Foxboro loosing trend. It's worth a shot man. I'm desperate.

"Kill em with kindness that's my strategy now."

Couldn't have said it any better than this, SW1!

[wig]

No they aren't. I hate that statement. That's sugarcoating a mistake.

Throwing the ball 35 yards downfield towards the end of the half is a low risk, high reward play. You're saying that's the same as a pick on your own ten with five minutes left up by six?

[ColtRider]

True, all interceptions are problematic. One thing here though about those 16 INTs. Would like to see the percentage rate of tipped balls, drops into defenders hands, and bounced off receivers or defenders for INTs. If someone has those stats, sure would like to see them from Andrew's 16. Don't really know if the NFL keeps those or the team or whoever. Need some help guys. Couldn't find them.

Anyone?

[zibby43]

A turnover is a turnover PERIOD

Stop saying it was basically punts. You don't know what Boomstick could've pulled off if those picks weren't thrown and he did actually punt the ball

Muffed Punt, Fumble, anything could've happened

Bottom line is Andrew forces plays that aren't there regardless of the situation

 

All turnovers are not created equal.  It's 3rd and 20 just inside your opponent's 45.  You're out of FG range.  Your QB throws a fade down the sideline that is intercepted by a diving CB at the 5.  He is down by contact there.

 

On that single occasion, would you be capable of living with that outcome?

 

Sometimes, once in a while, a TO doesn't bite as hard is it could (e.g., take the same example above and change the outcome to your QB throws an interception on an "out" route at the 35 that gets returned for 6 points). 

 

I remember Pat's first punt being ugly, but the second one pinned them inside the five. 

 

Just to be clear, both picks were long passes on third and long. I didn't lose any sleep over either of them. But those picks have been characterized as "basically punts," and I don't agree with that. You throw a ball up for grabs like that, and it might come all the way back. A punt is usually going to result in better field position and has less risk of a long return.

 

And to be clear, I never said that chucking up INTs on third and long is a good strategy and we should always consider third down TOs as punts.

 

I was simply stating that in those two specific instances in the Denver playoff game, the Colts got lucky and the INTs "effectively" became punts. 

 

In sum, my only point was that in the discussion of Luck's turnovers/INTs, those two against Denver aren't the worst throws he has had. 

 

As a coach, I can live with those types of INTs occasionally, in those specific situations.

 

And pretty much every coach/commentator asked about those specific plays has said the same thing.  I'm not claiming to come up with original material here, I am just agreeing with what has been said in the past about those particular throws/outcomes.

 

So no, INTs are never really a good thing but I'll take 2 of those INTs over "pick sixes" any day.

[NewColtsFan]

No they aren't. I hate that statement. That's sugarcoating a mistake.

 

I'm not surgarcoating anything...   All I'm simply saying is that some turnovers are worse than others, which by definition means some are less bad than others.

 

A turnover as the one I described that does no harm isn't as bad as one that leads to a score....

 

Am I really saying something that's controversial?

[Chucklez]

A turnover is a turnover PERIOD

Stop saying it was basically punts. You don't know what Boomstick could've pulled off if those picks weren't thrown and he did actually punt the ball

Muffed Punt, Fumble, anything could've happened

Bottom line is Andrew forces plays that aren't there regardless of the situation

I have to disagree, a turnover is not a always as bad as it seems... I remember at least 2 turnovers last season were on the final or damned near final plays of the half and Andrew was just lofting up deep to see if anyone could make something happen from nothing.... turns  out they were INT's, but they were downed immediately by our receivers and then when their QB took over for the final few seconds deep in their own half they just kneel it and goes to halftime... that goes down as an INT on the stat sheet.... but really that isnt a fair reflection of an INT.....

[Chucklez]

I'm not surgarcoating anything...   All I'm simply saying is that some turnovers are worse than others, which by definition means some are less bad than others.

 

A turnover as the one I described that does no harm isn't as bad as one that leads to a score....

 

Am I really saying something that's controversial?

I totally get it, a turnover like i described in my comment above is a very low risk, high reward scenario....

[Indianapolis-Colts-Fan]

I'm pretty tired of hearing (in other places mainly) about Luck's "excessive" interceptions. I don't have the stats but it seems to me that most of them are throws that are in game do or die situations (desperation for the team). I know he, just like a lot of grade A quarterbacks throw them by stupid mistakes but most I think aren't. I mean when the RB can't get no where and your down by 21-35-42 point you gotta just go for it. and that doesn't look good on his stats. hopefully this year the running game and passing game will be up to par so he can loose some of them desperation throws.. thoughts

Peyton threw 58 int his first three years in the NFL vs 85 TDs.

Andrew Has thrown 43 int vs 86 TDs his first three years in the NFL.

I'm not worried. We know he's got the brains, and he's certainly got the heart.

[Valpo2004]

His int rate really isn't that high when you compare it to the volume of throws he makes.  I believe his career INT rate right now is like the 9th lowest in NFL history or something like that.  

[lollygagger8]

Call me a homer, but I'll take Luck and (insert number here______) INT's over any QB in the NFL.