Bleacher says Colts biggest need DT

[NewColtsFan]

What is interesting is that our odds of drafting a safety at all this year are roughly the same as last year.  By that I mean it was a foregone conclusion we would draft one in '14 for the same reasons in front of us now.  We have the same roster hole and another weak safety draft as rated.  Of course, we are right to expect to use a pick on one this year....but none of us should be surprised if we go another 7 rounds without one.  Once the safeties with a draftable grade go by the windshield, its pretty obvious that Grigs will lump the rest into his UDFA target list.

 

It kind of makes me chuckle.  3 drafts and no DB's....its as if he see them like Kickers.  It is pretty strong evidence that Grigs is a BPA guy for any that doubt it.

 

Edit: John Boyett....but he is easy to forget.  Plus, he's almost a kicker minus the canal swim!

 

Two disagreements here....

 

First,  I, for one, will be surprised if we don't take a safety with one of our nine picks.

 

And two,  I don't think Grigson is a BPA guy....   I really don't.   And I think his draft results mostly show that....  But I understand that this is an area where there's room for disagreement.    You see it one way,  I see it another....

 

If only Boyett could've stayed sober.   And yet,  he went to Denver and got tossed off that team for getting drunk,  so that kid clearly has problems.    Too bad,  he also had real talent.    Serious talent.    Oh well......

[TKnight24]

Actually, he really doesn't.

He had a good year for SF.

In a Colts uniform, he STINKS

[TKnight24]

You're wrong.

If he's good why was he let go from Indy?

[Dustin]

If he's good why was he let go from Indy?

He wasn't.

[Dustin]

In a Colts uniform, he STINKS

Stop.

[aaron11]

i think d line is a bigger need than safety. not necessarily DT, but more depth and impact guys across the board.plus it is a very good class for lineman

 

sure we need a safety but considering the weak draft class and the fact d line is more important than safety(imo) id rather not draft one in the first.

 

if i had to choose id rather have an average/below average guy at safety than at DT/NT or DE

[NewColtsFan]

If he's good why was he let go from Indy?

 

He wasn't "let go" from Indy.

 

San Francisco out-bid the Colts.   I think we were surprised at how much the 49ers offered.

 

But at the same time,  we were not prepared to match that offer....

[weslo1812]

Two disagreements here....

First, I, for one, will be surprised if we don't take a safety with one of our nine picks.

And two, I don't think Grigson is a BPA guy.... I really don't. And I think his draft results mostly show that.... But I understand that this is an area where there's room for disagreement. You see it one way, I see it another....

If only Boyett could've stayed sober. And yet, he went to Denver and got tossed off that team for getting drunk, so that kid clearly has problems. Too bad, he also had real talent. Serious talent. Oh well......

Not jumping on you here but I dont see how you could you accurately come to the conclusion that Grigson isn't a BPA guy? Do you see the draft board? Do you know who he and his staff really like and dont like? Do you know how they measure and grade the prospects and how they evaluate them? I highly doubt any of us do. Just because your anaylasis of the players and what you read from experts may tell you or make you believe he doesn't take the best player available to YOU or to them, doesn't mean he doesn't take the BPA. Because remember, it's BPA according to Grigson, coach Pagano and the staffs evaluation of the players and where THEY rank them. Not by what your research tells you or what you percieve. You really have no basis to even make an accurate assumption on this. And draft results mean nothing because that's just your preception. You don't know what the board looked like.

[Dustin]

Not jumping on you here but I dont see how you could you accurately come to the conclusion that Grigson isn't a BPA guy? Do you see the draft board? Do you know who he and his staff really like and dont like? Do you know how they measure and grade the prospects and how they evaluate them? I highly doubt any of us do. Just because your anaylasis of the players and what you read from experts may tell you or make you believe he doesn't take the best player available to YOU or to them, doesn't mean he doesn't take the BPA. Because remember, it's BPA according to Grigson, coach Pagano and the staffs evaluation of the players and where THEY rank them. Not by what your research tells you or what you percieve. You really have no basis to even make an accurate assumption on this. And draft results mean nothing because that's just your preception. You don't know what the board looked like.

No team in the NFL drafts by BPA.

[weslo1812]

No team in the NFL drafts by BPA.

And how can you accurately come to that comclusion??? You cant!!! You are going off your perception and what YOU believe, not reality. How can you tell me you know what Grigson and Staff believed to be the best players available and and that they didn't select them? How can you prove that? Id really like to know...

[NewColtsFan]

Not jumping on you here but I dont see how you could you accurately come to the conclusion that Grigson isn't a BPA guy? Do you see the draft board? Do you know who he and his staff really like and dont like? Do you know how they measure and grade the prospects and how they evaluate them? I highly doubt any of us do. Just because your anaylasis of the players and what you read from experts may tell you or make you believe he doesn't take the best player available to YOU or to them, doesn't mean he doesn't take the BPA. Because remember, it's BPA according to Grigson, coach Pagano and the staffs evaluation of the players and where THEY rank them. Not by what your research tells you or what you percieve. You really have no basis to even make an accurate assumption on this. And draft results mean nothing because that's just your preception. You don't know what the board looked like.

 

Well, if that's your view,  why is the other poster's view (the person I was responding to)  that Grigson IS a BPA guy,  why is that view more valid?     If no one here knows what the board looks like,  we're all guessing.

 

And by the way,  I've made posts here explaining why I don't think Grigson is a BPA guy, and why I don't think many GM's are BPA guys,  this is not my first time saying it.     It may be your first time reading it from me,  but not the first time I've made this point.

 

And my point isn't a guess.   There's some reasoning behind it.    If you want me to explain it, I will,  but I won't if you're not interested....

[weslo1812]

Well, if that's your view, why is the other poster's view (the person I was responding to) that Grigson IS a BPA guy, why is that view more valid? If no one here knows what the board looks like, we're all guessing.

And by the way, I've made posts here explaining why I don't think Grigson is a BPA guy, and why I don't think many GM's are BPA guys, this is not my first time saying it. It may be your first time reading it from me, but not the first time I've made this point.

And my point isn't a guess. There's some reasoning behind it. If you want me to explain it, I will, but I won't if you're not interested....

I never took a side!!! I just simply asked. How can accurately know? We can sit here and do all the explaining we want on our ideas, theorys and anyalsis on why we believe he isn't or is. Doesn't mean a thing. No side of the argument can really say they know either way. Unless you know exactly how Grigson and the staff thinks and evaluates and you can see that draft board. Then none of us know. We can throw out our thoughts and opinions all day. Doesn't make it anymore right though. Its all perception and opinion. Its BPA according to Grigson and staff, not us! And for any of us to think we know what Grigson and staff have rated as their best players is quite frankly rediculous. And then to try and say that they are wrong on who they may take as BPA according to them is even more rediculous. WE DONT KNOW!!!! Thats the bottom line. It's a very simple thing.

[ztboiler]

Two disagreements here....

 

First,  I, for one, will be surprised if we don't take a safety with one of our nine picks.

 

And two,  I don't think Grigson is a BPA guy....   I really don't.   And I think his draft results mostly show that....  But I understand that this is an area where there's room for disagreement.    You see it one way,  I see it another....

 

If only Boyett could've stayed sober.   And yet,  he went to Denver and got tossed off that team for getting drunk,  so that kid clearly has problems.    Too bad,  he also had real talent.    Serious talent.    Oh well......

Not much disagreement there really in those 2 items....

 

BPA is always relative.  Purists are wrong because it plays out differently than that in real life, and when you merge philosophy with reality you and I probaby agree about whether Grigs is need or BPA based. 

[will426]

Who's us?

Aren't 99% (100%) of people who play in the secondary occasionally a liability? Bethea was by in large good as a Colt and had a good year last year as a 9er.

I didn't say he was wrong because I don't know what I'm talking about...

Bethea besides the Colts Super Bowl run had sucked for the colts in coverage he had great tackling skills and was good at Stopping the run..but from what many have seen this past season we need a safety who is good in coverage and the run

[NewColtsFan]

I never took a side!!! I just simply asked. How can accurately know? We can sit here and do all the explaining we want on our ideas, theorys and anyalsis on why we believe he isn't or is. Doesn't mean a thing. No side of the argument can really say they know either way. Unless you know exactly how Grigson and the staff thinks and evaluates and you can see that draft board. Then none of us know. We can throw out our thoughts and opinions all day. Doesn't make it anymore right though. Its all perception and opinion. Its BPA according to Grigson and staff, not us! And for any of us to think we know what Grigson and staff have rated as their best players is quite frankly rediculous. And then to try and say that they are wrong on who they may take as BPA according to them is even more rediculous. WE DONT KNOW!!!! Thats the bottom line. It's a very simple thing.

 

Nothing is ever that simple.

 

As I read your post,  you're saying this.....

 

We're all guessing....   so the guess by the dumbest person here (whoever you think that is)  is just as valid as the guess by the smartest person here (whoever you think that is)  because, after all,  we're all guessing and none of us knows...

 

If that's really your argument and not a misread by me, then good luck with that.   I don't think that's a valid argument.

[Superman]

What is interesting is that our odds of drafting a safety at all this year are roughly the same as last year.  By that I mean it was a foregone conclusion we would draft one in '14 for the same reasons in front of us now.  We have the same roster hole and another weak safety draft as rated.  Of course, we are right to expect to use a pick on one this year....but none of us should be surprised if we go another 7 rounds without one.  Once the safeties with a draftable grade go by the windshield, its pretty obvious that Grigs will lump the rest into his UDFA target list.

 

It kind of makes me chuckle.  3 drafts and no DB's....its as if he see them like Kickers.  It is pretty strong evidence that Grigs is a BPA guy for any that doubt it.

 

Edit: John Boyett....but he is easy to forget.  Plus, he's almost a kicker minus the canal swim!

 

I wouldn't say the odds are the same. We have almost twice as many picks this year as we did last, and more capital and incentive to make a move during the draft if there's someone the staff really likes. 

[ztboiler]

I wouldn't say the odds are the same. We have almost twice as many picks this year as we did last, and more capital and incentive to make a move during the draft if there's someone the staff really likes. 

Fair point that in a raw numbers game, there is no doubt that the total probability is greater that we'll draft a safety this year.  It is still very interesting how quickly we forget the number of plausible safeties that Grigs left on the board in the 3rd last year when he picked Moncrief.  I think most of us are pleased he did.

[weslo1812]

Nothing is ever that simple.

As I read your post, you're saying this.....

We're all guessing.... so the guess by the dumbest person here (whoever you think that is) is just as valid as the guess by the smartest person here (whoever you think that is) because, after all, we're all guessing and none of us knows...

If that's really your argument and not a misread by me, then good luck with that. I don't think that's a valid argument.

Prove to me that you know then who Grigson and his staff have evalauated as their best players and that you know without a shadow of doubt that they don't take the BPA.... give me some facts and proof that's the case. Not opinion or just your anyalysis based off what you've read on online that you think is right. Because untill you can do that...anything you try and tell me otherwise is INVALID!!! It's all educated guesses and OPINION!!! Unless you know how Grigson and his staff evaluate players and or you've seen the draft board, then nothing you say is more accurate than what anyone else might say. It really is that simple...you just don't wanna hear it. My point is we can't know EITHER way. Its all educated guesses. THATS IT!!! Nothing more untill factual proof can be given. Whether you like it or not, that's how it is! If you wanna THINK you know more than others because of your resaerch than that's your choice.

[NewColtsFan]

Prove to me that you know then what Grigson and his satff have evalauated as their best players and that you know without a shadow of doubt that they dont take the BPA.... give me some facts and proof that's the case. Not opinion or just your anyalysis based off what you've read on online that you think is right. Because untill you can do that...anything you try and tell me otherwise is INVALID!!! It's all educated guesses and OPINION!!! It really is that simple...you just don't wanna hear it. My point is we can't know EITHER way. Its all educated guesses. THATS IT!!! Nothing more untill factual proof can be given. Whether you like it or not, that's how it is!

 

Congratulations.....

 

You've just eliminated the need for fan message boards.    Because none of us actually knows anything for certain.   We're all guessing.

 

And since everyone's guess is as good as everyone elses,  what's the point of anyone posting.   No one can learn anything new because no one knows anything.

 

By the way,  I have no idea why you're so busy working so hard to build a strawman?    I never said I can prove anything.   I just think I can make a pretty compelling case,  and you're free to not believe it, or believe it or do whatever you want to do with it....

 

One of us (me) is remaining calm and matter of fact.    Another one of us (you) is getting all bent out of shape and writing lots of words in ALL CAPS trying to prove some unprovable point.    This is a much bigger deal for you than it is for me.

 

But you're not the least bit interested in learning anything or even considering anything.....

 

So,  we've reached the point of agreeing to disagree and move on from there......    good luck....

[weslo1812]

Congratulations.....

You've just eliminated the need for fan message boards. Because none of us actually knows anything for certain. We're all guessing.

And since everyone's guess is as good as everyone elses, what's the point of anyone posting. No one can learn anything new because no one knows anything.

By the way, I have no idea why you're so busy working so hard to build a strawman? I never said I can prove anything. I just think I can make a pretty compelling case, and you're free to not believe it, or believe it or do whatever you want to do with it....

One of us (me) is remaining calm and matter of fact. Another one of us (you) is getting all bent out of shape and writing lots of words in ALL CAPS trying to prove some unprovable point. This is a much bigger deal for you than it is for me.

But you're not the least bit interested in learning anything or even considering anything.....

So, we've reached the point of agreeing to disagree and move on from there...... good luck....

And by this post It seems you're quite bothered. Im not bent at all actually. All caps is just emphasizing certain points that's it. Nice job assuming though. What I've said is all very true. I never said we cant make educated guesses or opinions. But I said that ALL it is. And that no one can really say their side is more accurate. Because unless someone has seen the draft board or knows for sure how Grigson and his staff evaluate their players, then how can they be anymore right than anyone else? We're all just making educated guesses. I mean what facts do you have that make your thoughts anymore right than anyone elses? Reguardless of which side you come at it from, its all just opinion. That's just how it is.I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's really the truth. And sometimes that hurts.

[weslo1812]

Congratulations.....

You've just eliminated the need for fan message boards. Because none of us actually knows anything for certain. We're all guessing.

And since everyone's guess is as good as everyone elses, what's the point of anyone posting. No one can learn anything new because no one knows anything.

By the way, I have no idea why you're so busy working so hard to build a strawman? I never said I can prove anything. I just think I can make a pretty compelling case, and you're free to not believe it, or believe it or do whatever you want to do with it....

One of us (me) is remaining calm and matter of fact. Another one of us (you) is getting all bent out of shape and writing lots of words in ALL CAPS trying to prove some unprovable point. This is a much bigger deal for you than it is for me.

But you're not the least bit interested in learning anything or even considering anything.....

So, we've reached the point of agreeing to disagree and move on from there...... good luck....

Oh and Im building a strawman..??? Hahah so far you have not proven to me that ANYTHING I've said is wrong or that your thoughts and opinions are anymore right and accurate than anyone elses. You've avoided the questions I've posed too. So what point exactly have you made...??? NONE!!! You have shown me though that you don't like or want people challenging you though.

[NewColtsFan]

And by this post It seems you're quite bothered. Im not bent at all actually. All caps is just emphasizing certain points that's it. Nice job assuming though. What I've said is all very true. I never said we cant make educated guesses or opinions. But I said that ALL it is. And that no one can really say their side is more accurate. Because unless someone has seen the draft board or knows for sure how Grigson and his staff evaluate their players, then how can they be anymore right than anyone else? We're all just making educated guesses. I mean what facts do you have that make your thoughts anymore right than anyone elses? Reguardless of which side you come at it from, its all just opinion. That's just how it is.I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's really the truth. And sometimes that hurts.

 

Then there's no issue under the sun in any walk of life than anyone's opinion is worth anymore than anyone elses unless they actually know for a fact.

 

So,  any professor at a college who has studied some issue for 30 years is no more qualified to talk about an issue than the homeless guy on the street who never got out of high school.    Seem strange?    That's the argument you just made.

 

You really think that everyone here on this website has the same insight into the Colts as every other poster?    Seriously?  You take every post by every poster equally because no one knows more than anyone else?

 

Because that's the argument you're making.    And no,  it's not the least bit hurtful to me.   But I think it should be extremely embarrassing to you.    That's not a very well thought through position.

[NewColtsFan]

Oh and Im building a strawman..??? Hahah so far you have not proven to me that ANYTHING I've said is wrong or that your thoughts and opinions are anymore right and accurate than anyone elses. You've avoided the questions I've posed too. So what point exactly have you made...??? NONE!!! You have shown me though that you don't like or want people challenging you though.

 

I have said I'd explain it to you and you've repeatedly said there was nothing I could say that would change things.

 

So, I'm not wasting my time.     Period.

 

You think everyone's opinion here is the same and no one knows more than anyone else.    I'm actually embarrassed that a grown-up could arrive at that conclusion.

[weslo1812]

I have said I'd explain it to you and you've repeatedly said there was nothing I could say that would change things.

So, I'm not wasting my time. Period.

You think everyone's opinion here is the same and no one knows more than anyone else. I'm actually embarrassed that a grown-up could arrive at that conclusion.

So PROVE something to me then??? I've given you the chances!!! Ive specifically asked you to tell me!!! What set's what you believe and have to say apart from ANYONE else??? Cause untill you can give me facts or proof that specifically sets apart what you have to say from anyine else...it's just an opinion. Thats a very basic simple concept to understand. So what do you have to justify and prove that what you say isn't just an opinion or an educated guess? That it is indeed TRUTH!!!Please share with me. I'm more than willing to read what you have to say. And understand I've never said that you may not know more than some, but that what you say is ALSO just an opinion. Untill you can give proof and facts that show what you say and believe is indeed correct beyond a shaddow of a doubt.

[weslo1812]

I have said I'd explain it to you and you've repeatedly said there was nothing I could say that would change things.

So, I'm not wasting my time. Period.

You think everyone's opinion here is the same and no one knows more than anyone else. I'm actually embarrassed that a grown-up could arrive at that conclusion.

Definition of opinion from Wikipedia:

"In general, an opinion is a Judgement, viewpoint or statement about matters commonly considered to be subjective i.e. based on that which is less than absolutely certian, and is the result of emotion or interpretation of facts."

So what is there that you have to say which rises above this? Maybe the definition will help you out a little. I'm just asking for proof that your opinion is more than just an opinion and is more accurate than somone elses. What basis do you have to judge that it is indeed accurate and true? Just the fact that you might think your knowledge is superior to others? Well that certainly won't cut it. Alot of people think alot of things.

[weslo1812]

Then there's no issue under the sun in any walk of life than anyone's opinion is worth anymore than anyone elses unless they actually know for a fact.

So, any professor at a college who has studied some issue for 30 years is no more qualified to talk about an issue than the homeless guy on the street who never got out of high school. Seem strange? That's the argument you just made.

You really think that everyone here on this website has the same insight into the Colts as every other poster? Seriously? You take every post by every poster equally because no one knows more than anyone else?

Because that's the argument you're making. And no, it's not the least bit hurtful to me. But I think it should be extremely embarrassing to you. That's not a very well thought through position.

Second paragraph waaayyy off base bud. Nice try, but try again!!! The point I'm making is that what you may have to say is also just an opinion, whether it be more educated than someone elses or not. UNLESS you have facts and proof that show it is more than just an opinion. It can be a greatly educated opinion with tons of research. Doesn't mean that it's gonna be anymore right in the end. And so I've been asking you, what do you have that proves you have more than just an opinion. And what do you to justify and prove you are anymore right than anyone else? That's what I'm getting at and asking for. Never said nobody can know anymore than anyone else. Never!!! The question becomes though is what you say you know, right and indeed true? Is there proof? If not then what makes it more than an opinion? That's the point. My point has never been about whether someone can have a more educated and detailed opinion or not. It's been that in the end... it's still just an opinion without the presentation of facts. Plain and simple. Sorry you're not capable of understanding this and that you appearently don't know what an opinion is either.

[NewColtsFan]

So PROVE something to me then??? I've given you the chances!!! Ive specifically asked you to tell me!!! What set's what you believe and have to say apart from ANYONE else??? Cause untill you can give me facts or proof that specifically sets apart what you have to say from anyine else...it's just an opinion. Thats a very basic simple concept to understand. So what do you have to justify and prove that what you say isn't just an opinion or an educated guess? That it is indeed TRUTH!!!Please share with me. I'm more than willing to read what you have to say. And understand I've never said that you may not know more than some, but that what you say is ALSO just an opinion. Untill you can give proof and facts that show what you say and believe is indeed correct beyond a shaddow of a doubt.

 

OK.....   since you asked for it....   But this is going to be very, very long...   (nope, even longer than that!)

 

Grigson has come out and said that his "board" is roughly 100 players deep.   Now, ask yourself a question...  if the draft is 256 players long and we've got to be picking in all of the rounds,  how is it that Grigson is confident that his 100 player board is going to last 256 picks?    Answer:  Because he's picking roughly 15 players or so for each round that he expects will be there.  That's called targeting.  And he's not alone.  Other GM's are doing the same thing.   Now, within each round, he may be going BPA from his small list,  but when you're excluding roughly 150 players that are going to be drafted, then you're not going BPA, you're avoiding players you're not interested in.  He's not interested in QB's or TE's where we're loaded.  And certain players he's not interested in because they don't fit our system, etc.  And other positions have been addressed in Free Agency.   He is strictly focused on a narrow group of players for each round.  He'll take one from that small pool.  This is a huge shift in the approach of GM's.   It started a few years ago when the new collective bargaining agreement went into place.   The lack of huge rookie salaries means teams are more willing to target their needs, and less interested in taking a player at a position that they don't need to fill.

 

So, in 2012, Grigson's first year,  do you think it's one large coincidence that Grigson took receivers with his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th picks?   That's Fleener, Allen, Hilton and Brazil.    That's not a coincidence of BPA.   The Colts didn't just happen to stumble into receivers with all those picks.   They were targeting young receivers to go with Luck.    I think they targeted Chapman as he fell several rounds due to his injury. 

 

In 2013,  Grigson talked about getting a pass rush and building the OL.   It's not a coincidence that he worked out Werner a number of times and then drafted him.   He could've taken the WR Hopkins, but he had Wayne/Hilton/DHB.   He could've taken the CB, Nixon, but he had just signed Toler and had already traded for Davis and signed Butler.    He targeted Werner and got him.

We didn't have a 2nd R pick, that was traded for Vonte Davis.   But Grigson targeted Thornton in the 3rd and Holmes in the 4th.   I publicly predicted the Thornton pick.   How did I do that if I didn't know the Colts board?   He was the best power guard left at that time and went to Indiana, where one of our OL coaches had been.  Grigson had privately worked out Holmes and drafted him in the 4th.  He did this despite saying he'd been part of 3 franchises that went to the Super Bowl with a free agent at center.   He targeted Hughes and traded up to get him.   He targeted Boyett who he had a private meeting with at the combine, and, like Chapman the year before, had fallen several rounds due to injury.

 

In 2014,  despite wanting us to go heavy on defense, I said there was a good chance we'd draft an OL with our first pick in the 2nd round.  (first round pick went for Trent)   You think it was a coincidence that we took Mewhort there?    Now, Moncrief WAS BPA.   Grigson was very clear that everyone was stunned he was still there.   But he didn't say that about any other player.   Not Mewhort.  And he targeted Newsome.   They were desperate for a pass rush because of Mathis.   Grigson publicly said everyone sweated out Newsome after the Moncrief pick.   They waited two rounds to draft him and hoped he'd be there.   They waited roughly 75 picks.   You think it was a coincidence that the guy they targeted the night before was there when they selected?   They targeted a guy they hoped would be there more than two full rounds later.  He was the guy they wanted -- period.

 

When I arrived in here in 2012 (we joined almost the same time) the consensus on the draft page was Geno Smith was going #1 in the 2013 draft because he was the best quarterback.   I was the first to say it made no difference if he was the best QB,  he wasn't worthy of the first overall pick and likely not worthy of a top-10 pick.   I got huge push-back from posters.   How'd that turn out?    That same year,  Tyrone Mahieu (aka: Honey Badger) was also being called a top-10 pick by numerous posters.   I said not only would he not go in the top-10,  he wasn't going to go in the first round,  and when his last drug incident happened, I said it was doubtful he'd go in the 2nd round.    And I also said he likely wouldn't play much corner, he was more a safety.   How'd that turn out?

 

in 2014, people did the same thing...   Teddy Bridgewater would go first overall.   Again, I was the first to say it wouldn't happen. I was the first to say no quarterback would go first overall.    Again, I was right. 

 

In 2013, I was the first to say the first round was not very good, but rounds 2-6 were fantastically loaded.   That was scoffed at when I first posted that.  But that's what I was reading everywhere.   Months later,  lots of posters here came around to that view.   

 

For the 2015 draft, I was the first to say this was a terrible year for safeties, a shame as the Colts really need one (or two).   I said it months ago.    Now, it's conventional wisdom.

 

Am I wrong about stuff?   Plenty of times.   And it's often pointed out to me.   And I've got no problem with that.   I don't pretend to be right all the time.   I'm wrong more times than I'd like.   But I'm right far more than I'm wrong, and especially when it comes to the draft.   For what it's worth to you,  I've been following the NFL draft for practically double the number of years you've been alive!    You're in your early to mid-20's?    I've been following the draft for roughly 45 years.    I've got a pretty good feel for how it goes....     I'm often surprised, but that's the nature of things....   stuff happens.

 

Now.....   is ANY of this rock solid proof that Grigson is not drafting BPA?    No, it's not.   But I think it's a pretty compelling case.  I think there's enough logic behind it to stand up to a lot of scrutiny.     I'm sure there will be plenty of people here who disagree with me on this.   And that's fine.    That's what makes a message board fun, a good healthy disagreement.

 

But while everyone -- and I mean everyone -- is entitled to their own opinion, and I completely respect it,  all opinions are not equal, because not all opinions are as informed.    Some people don't care to follow the draft as closely as I do.  And I completely understand that.   I wouldn't expect anyone to be as consumed by it as I am (though Gavin and Dustin certainly are!).

 

I have no problem -- none -- with anyone disagreeing with me.   Please, by all means and make your case....   I'm always open to having my view changed and that has happened plenty of times here by lots of posters.  

 

Apologies to all here for the nature of this post....   I don't like patting myself on the back this way,  but I felt backed into a corner by the conversation with this poster.....   

 

And, my last apologies for the length of this post....   it's probably my longest ever....   and I'm not proud of that..... 

 

Oh well...   April is almost here and April means the draft!   

[weslo1812]

OK..... since you asked for it.... But this is going to be very, very long... (nope, even longer than that!)

Grigson has come out and said that his "board" is roughly 100 players deep. Now, ask yourself a question... if the draft is 256 players long and we've got to be picking in all of the rounds, how is it that Grigson is confident that his 100 player board is going to last 256 picks? Answer: Because he's picking roughly 15 players or so for each round that he expects will be there. That's called targeting. And he's not alone. Other GM's are doing the same thing. Now, within each round, he may be going BPA from his small list, but when you're excluding roughly 150 players that are going to be drafted, then you're not going BPA, you're avoiding players you're not interested in. He's not interested in QB's or TE's where we're loaded. And certain players he's not interested in because they don't fit our system, etc. And other positions have been addressed in Free Agency. He is strictly focused on a narrow group of players for each round. He'll take one from that small pool. This is a huge shift in the approach of GM's. It started a few years ago when the new collective bargaining agreement went into place. The lack of huge rookie salaries means teams are more willing to target their needs, and less interested in taking a player at a position that they don't need to fill.

So, in 2012, Grigson's first year, do you think it's one large coincidence that Grigson took receivers with his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th picks? That's Fleener, Allen, Hilton and Brazil. That's not a coincidence of BPA. The Colts didn't just happen to stumble into receivers with all those picks. They were targeting young receivers to go with Luck. I think they targeted Chapman as he fell several rounds due to his injury.

In 2013, Grigson talked about getting a pass rush and building the OL. It's not a coincidence that he worked out Werner a number of times and then drafted him. He could've taken the WR Hopkins, but he had Wayne/Hilton/DHB. He could've taken the CB, Nixon, but he had just signed Toler and had already traded for Davis and signed Butler. He targeted Werner and got him.

We didn't have a 2nd R pick, that was traded for Vonte Davis. But Grigson targeted Thornton in the 3rd and Holmes in the 4th. I publicly predicted the Thornton pick. How did I do that if I didn't know the Colts board? He was the best power guard left at that time and went to Indiana, where one of our OL coaches had been. Grigson had privately worked out Holmes and drafted him in the 4th. He did this despite saying he'd been part of 3 franchises that went to the Super Bowl with a free agent at center. He targeted Hughes and traded up to get him. He targeted Boyett who he had a private meeting with at the combine, and, like Chapman the year before, had fallen several rounds due to injury.

In 2014, despite wanting us to go heavy on defense, I said there was a good chance we'd draft an OL with our first pick in the 2nd round. (first round pick went for Trent) You think it was a coincidence that we took Mewhort there? Now, Moncrief WAS BPA. Grigson was very clear that everyone was stunned he was still there. But he didn't say that about any other player. Not Mewhort. And he targeted Newsome. They were desperate for a pass rush because of Mathis. Grigson publicly said everyone sweated out Newsome after the Moncrief pick. They waited two rounds to draft him and hoped he'd be there. They waited roughly 75 picks. You think it was a coincidence that the guy they targeted the night before was there when they selected? They targeted a guy they hoped would be there more than two full rounds later. He was the guy they wanted -- period.

When I arrived in here in 2012 (we joined almost the same time) the consensus on the draft page was Geno Smith was going #1 in the 2013 draft because he was the best quarterback. I was the first to say it made no difference if he was the best QB, he wasn't worthy of the first overall pick and likely not worthy of a top-10 pick. I got huge push-back from posters. How'd that turn out? That same year, Tyrone Mahieu (aka: Honey Badger) was also being called a top-10 pick by numerous posters. I said not only would he not go in the top-10, he wasn't going to go in the first round, and when his last drug incident happened, I said it was doubtful he'd go in the 2nd round. And I also said he likely wouldn't play much corner, he was more a safety. How'd that turn out?

in 2014, people did the same thing... Teddy Bridgewater would go first overall. Again, I was the first to say it wouldn't happen. I was the first to say no quarterback would go first overall. Again, I was right.

In 2013, I was the first to say the first round was not very good, but rounds 2-6 were fantastically loaded. That was scoffed at when I first posted that. But that's what I was reading everywhere. Months later, lots of posters here came around to that view.

For the 2015 draft, I was the first to say this was a terrible year for safeties, a shame as the Colts really need one (or two). I said it months ago. Now, it's conventional wisdom.

Am I wrong about stuff? Plenty of times. And it's often pointed out to me. And I've got no problem with that. I don't pretend to be right all the time. I'm wrong more times than I'd like. But I'm right far more than I'm wrong, and especially when it comes to the draft. For what it's worth to you, I've been following the NFL draft for practically double the number of years you've been alive! You're in your early to mid-20's? I've been following the draft for roughly 45 years. I've got a pretty good feel for how it goes.... I'm often surprised, but that's the nature of things.... stuff happens.

Now..... is ANY of this rock solid proof that Grigson is not drafting BPA? No, it's not. But I think it's a pretty compelling case. I think there's enough logic behind it to stand up to a lot of scrutiny. I'm sure there will be plenty of people here who disagree with me on this. And that's fine. That's what makes a message board fun, a good healthy disagreement.

But while everyone -- and I mean everyone -- is entitled to their own opinion, and I completely respect it, all opinions are not equal, because not all opinions are as informed. Some people don't care to follow the draft as closely as I do. And I completely understand that. I wouldn't expect anyone to be as consumed by it as I am (though Gavin and Dustin certainly are!).

I have no problem -- none -- with anyone disagreeing with me. Please, by all means and make your case.... I'm always open to having my view changed and that has happened plenty of times here by lots of posters.

Apologies to all here for the nature of this post.... I don't like patting myself on the back this way, but I felt backed into a corner by the conversation with this poster.....

And, my last apologies for the length of this post.... it's probably my longest ever.... and I'm not proud of that.....

Oh well... April is almost here and April means the draft!

Excellent stuff!!! Cudos to you and your knowledge on the draft and understanding of it. Which is something I've not been trying to dis credit. This is as you said a very well thought out and compelling case. I do agree on that. But I do believe my overall point still stands. And as I said it's not that one can't or may not have a more informed opinion. Because one can. But does that at anytime guarentee one is gonna be right? No it doesn't. So while it may be more informed than others, what changes it from an opinion overall? That's what I've been trying to get at overall. And if you do believe it is more accurate than others, what do you have to prove and show that?

Also when you said that because he excludes 150 players from his list that he's not going BPA. How can you come to that conclusion and say that's a fact? How do you know that the players he's narrowed down to aren't the BPA according to Grigson and the staff? I'm simply and respectully asking because you made the statement.

And how are all opinions not equal just on the basesis that all might not be as well informed? And opinion can have all the information in the world and still be as wrong as the day is long. So what seperates an uninformed opinion from and informed opinion if they both have the same chance to be untrue? Whats the distinguishing factor?

[ColtRider]

I think DT is as big of a need as safety- and it's harder to find quality 3-4 DT's than it is to find a safety.

Not only is " The Fish" correct, he's absolutely correct! DT or Safety. BUT, DT FIRST! Ensure that we ...

S T O P T H E R U N ! We better. If we dont, count on the very same thing happening next year in the Playoffs.

[Flash7]

With the recent talk of Pagano and Grigson being on the last year of their contracts, I would suspect that they will do whatever is necessary to defend against the run and become a more "hard-nosed" defensive team. This would mean we are leaning towards a D-lineman in the first round. Just my thoughts.