One Month to Go - Archer's Colt Mock

[Archer]

It’s tough to figure out what Grigson will do, since he sticks to his draft board and takes what he considers to be the best available player at a position of need.  So you’ve got to guess who he’ll fall in love with.  However, looking at how I think the first round will unfold, it seems like our choice will come down to a CB or an OT.  Two fallacies IMO, are that we will be going for a NT or SS Landon Collins.  As for the NT, I really think we have a lot of talent at NT that the coaches like (Chapman, Kerr, Hughes, and even Jones in a pinch).  Many here on the forum have noted (possibly correctly) that the NT play needs to be better, but the coaching staff believes in developing players and then letting them play.  I guarantee that Grigson and Pagano aren’t going to just dump these NTs before giving them sufficient chance to show they can play.  Those who want a NT upgrade in this draft will probably be very disappointed.  As for Collins, no need to use a first rounder on an in-the-box safety who can’t cover – you can get those elsewhere.  I don’t think there’s a single Safety in this class worth our 1^st rounder.

 

1) Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest.  I feel like someone (Philly?) might fall in love with Johnson in the early twenties.  He sticks like glue and is a much better man-to-man cover CB than you can usually get at #29.  The only reason he may last to us is concerns about his slight frame (though he’s never been hurt and he’s a really good tackler).  Jalen Collins of LSU might be a better system fit, but less dynamic in coverage.  Jalen’s physical style of play, physical tools, and coverage ability are bound to appeal to the decision makers.  The position makes a lot of sense to me, as we rely on great man coverage, and we’ll be lucky to get nine games out of Toler any given year.  Not to mention that the top back-up at border corner (Butler is strictly a slot guy) is Jalil Brown or Sheldon Price.  It’s tough to make this call given that Grigson hasn’t drafted a CB in three drafts despite obvious need, but he’s gotta see the need..  

 

2) Donovan Smith, OT, Penn St.  I’ve come nearly full circle.  Initially (like December), OT was my first round pick.  But then I realized it would cost nearly $2 million more against the cap this year to cut Cherilus than to keep him.  At that point, OT became a late-round need to enhance depth in preparation for cutting Cherilus next year.  However, now we doubt Cherilus’ ability to return from injury this year (and we’ve done so well in FA with other positions), so getting an heir apparent at RT seems possible early in this draft.  As for Smith, most of his flaws as a player may be the result of playing a little too heavy.  He played in the 340s, was 338 at the Sr. Bowl, and was down to 328 at his PD.  Ran a 5.00 flat or so at his PD.  This is earlier than many expect him to go, but I feel like he could be gone before our 2^nd rounder.  Scouts should love this guy.

 

3) Derron Smith, S, Fresno St.  Might prefer Damarious Randall of Arizona St., but I think he’ll be gone.  Smith just had a pretty good PD for a guy three months removed from hernia surgery.  18 bench reps, 4.55ish on the forty and 4.22 short shuttle.  His size (5’10, 200) may keep him from being drafted by some teams, but the Colts have been known to play safeties of that size.  He’s more of the ball-hawk, coverage type.  In another poor safety class, this is one of the few guys I could see Grigson pulling the trigger on in the first half of the draft.

 

4) Mike Hull, ILB, Penn St.  I’m not a fan of D’Qwell, who was too much of a liability in coverage (and assaulting pizza drivers isn’t winning me over either).  Irving should be better.  Overall, we’re okay here, as Freeman should return to form and Muamba may make strides.  Still, I’d like to enhance depth for the post D’Qwell years (very soon), and because Freeman will be a FA next year.  Hull would go higher if he didn’t have an injury past.  He’s an all-round ILB with pretty good physical skills.  His forty was a little disappointing, but he has good instincts in coverage, which should keep him from being D’Qwell 2.0.

 

5) Tyeler Davison, DL, Fresno St.  I think that Grigson and Pagano are happy with the DL, as many have written lately.  As I said, I never saw a need for a NT, but I was worried about generating a little more pass-rush.  None of the guys available to us in this draft seem that athletically different from Kelcey Quarles, who the team reportedly likes a lot.  So, I gave up on the 295 lb. pass-rusher idea.  But this guy is the size and shape of Kendall Langford, with the quickness of a smaller guy.  He has a lot of development to do, but I think this is what Grigson and Pagano want the DEs to look like.

 

6) John Crockett, RB, North Dakota St.  This is where it’s going to get tough.  We have nine picks, and we probably don’t have nine clear roster spots for them.  Some picks won’t make the active roster this year.  Anyway, Crockett’s been one of my favorites since the East-West Shrine game, where he reportedly was great at receiving and in blitz pick-up.  A little slow forty (4.62), but a good 10-yard split (which speaks well for his ability to get to and through the hole).  Quick feet.  He’s a complete back, like a healthy Ballard, whose running is probably the weakest part of his resume.  It’ll probably be a good competition between him and Tipton for the #3 back.

 

6) Connor Halliday, QB, Washington St.  A bean-pole who weighs less than 200 lbs at 6’3.  However, he’s got a great arm and is very accurate on the short- to medium-range stuff.  Not bad on the long stuff, but makes too many bad decisions on throwing into coverage (too confident).  He’s from a run-and-shoot type offense and has a lot to learn about pro style offenses.  I like him as a lively camp arm.  He has some of the athletic traits of Luck and could possibly some day run the Colts’ offense.  No illusions: he would strictly be the guy on the PS that runs the scout team and can come to the active roster if the unthinkable happens (and develop into Luck’s future back-up).

 

7) DeAndrew White, WR, Alabama.  Probably another PS guy.  A great athlete who never put it all together in Alabama’s WR-unfriendly system.  Ran a 4.40 forty at his pro day.  Had some injury concerns.  I would say that Ryan Lankford is my favorite to win the #5 WR role (if we keep five), but getting more physical talent into camp won’t hurt.  He could surprise…

 

7) Detrick Bonner, S, Virginia Tech.  We interviewed him.  A developmental guy that could make the roster.  Good physical skills, and more of a coverage guy.  If he proves valuable on ST, he could displace Colt Anderson on the roster…who knows?

[#BringBobBack]

i like Kevin Johnson alot best CB in the draft IMO if we wanted to go and get a CB early i hope it's him good mock

[BProland85]

Not a fan of this draft.

[COLTS449]

Not a fan of this myself. As far as Defense goes, we're in the best shape at corner. We need to go D-Line in the 1st.

[throwing BBZ]

Not a fan of this myself. As far as Defense goes, we're in the best shape at corner. We need to go D-Line in the 1st.

 

 We are in good shape on the D-Line and very vulnerable at Corner and Safety.

[SP_21]

I'd be very happy with this draft. For some reason I really think we will go corner in the first and I would love to get Kevin Johnson.

[That Guy]

This looks like a very plausible draft (most people are WAY too optimistic in their picks), and that makes it look mediocre compared to other drafts.  I agree that our defensive backfield is now our primary concern, but I think the D-line is missing one key player.  If we could get a playmaker at D-line, I wouldn't worry about our backfield as much.

 

Kevin Johnson could be a good pickup, but I think we could get a better player at our spot.  He's not in my top 32 players, so something better (in my eyes) will be available.

 

I like Donovan Smith...  as a guard.  I don't see him being the best available RT at our pick in the second round.  Once again, I think we could do better.

 

Derron Smith's strength seems to be coverage which is great!  Unfortunately, he excels at covering slot recievers and not TEs.  We already have a good slot corner, so I don't think this is going to be what we're looking for in a safety.  All that being said, I think he would be a great value in the third.

 

Mike Hull is exactly the right position for the right pick.  I would love for us to get an ILB in the fourth.  I would only want us to get Mike Hull if Hayes Pullard or Ben Heeney are not available.  I am probably higher on Pullard than most people, but I think he could be an absolute beast in our scheme.

 

I don't know why, but too many websites are saying that Tyeler Davison would be an absolute waste in a three man front (NFL.com in particular).  Does anyone know why?  I'm afraid this might turn into a wasted pick.

 

After that, you seems to have picked too many offensive players for my taste.  I like Crockett but could do without Halliday and White.

 

Thanks for taking the time to be thourough with your mock!

[COLTS449]

 We are in good shape on the D-Line and very vulnerable at Corner and Safety.

 

Safety yeah, but I don't see how you think that about the CB's. We have Davis, Toler, and Butler. That's a solid top 3.

[ColtsGM]

Actually, this mock draft really isn't bad at all; I really like doubling up on Safeties and using the high pick on a CB, C/OT or DE (all needs).

[Yoshinator]

It’s tough to figure out what Grigson will do, since he sticks to his draft board and takes what he considers to be the best available player at a position of need.  So you’ve got to guess who he’ll fall in love with.  However, looking at how I think the first round will unfold, it seems like our choice will come down to a CB or an OT.  Two fallacies IMO, are that we will be going for a NT or SS Landon Collins.  As for the NT, I really think we have a lot of talent at NT that the coaches like (Chapman, Kerr, Hughes, and even Jones in a pinch).  Many here on the forum have noted (possibly correctly) that the NT play needs to be better, but the coaching staff believes in developing players and then letting them play.  I guarantee that Grigson and Pagano aren’t going to just dump these NTs before giving them sufficient chance to show they can play.  Those who want a NT upgrade in this draft will probably be very disappointed.  As for Collins, no need to use a first rounder on an in-the-box safety who can’t cover – you can get those elsewhere.  I don’t think there’s a single Safety in this class worth our 1^st rounder.

 

1) Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest.  I feel like someone (Philly?) might fall in love with Johnson in the early twenties.  He sticks like glue and is a much better man-to-man cover CB than you can usually get at #29.  The only reason he may last to us is concerns about his slight frame (though he’s never been hurt and he’s a really good tackler).  Jalen Collins of LSU might be a better system fit, but less dynamic in coverage.  Jalen’s physical style of play, physical tools, and coverage ability are bound to appeal to the decision makers.  The position makes a lot of sense to me, as we rely on great man coverage, and we’ll be lucky to get nine games out of Toler any given year.  Not to mention that the top back-up at border corner (Butler is strictly a slot guy) is Jalil Brown or Sheldon Price.  It’s tough to make this call given that Grigson hasn’t drafted a CB in three drafts despite obvious need, but he’s gotta see the need..  

 

2) Donovan Smith, OT, Penn St.  I’ve come nearly full circle.  Initially (like December), OT was my first round pick.  But then I realized it would cost nearly $2 million more against the cap this year to cut Cherilus than to keep him.  At that point, OT became a late-round need to enhance depth in preparation for cutting Cherilus next year.  However, now we doubt Cherilus’ ability to return from injury this year (and we’ve done so well in FA with other positions), so getting an heir apparent at RT seems possible early in this draft.  As for Smith, most of his flaws as a player may be the result of playing a little too heavy.  He played in the 340s, was 338 at the Sr. Bowl, and was down to 328 at his PD.  Ran a 5.00 flat or so at his PD.  This is earlier than many expect him to go, but I feel like he could be gone before our 2^nd rounder.  Scouts should love this guy.

 

3) Derron Smith, S, Fresno St.  Might prefer Damarious Randall of Arizona St., but I think he’ll be gone.  Smith just had a pretty good PD for a guy three months removed from hernia surgery.  18 bench reps, 4.55ish on the forty and 4.22 short shuttle.  His size (5’10, 200) may keep him from being drafted by some teams, but the Colts have been known to play safeties of that size.  He’s more of the ball-hawk, coverage type.  In another poor safety class, this is one of the few guys I could see Grigson pulling the trigger on in the first half of the draft.

 

4) Mike Hull, ILB, Penn St.  I’m not a fan of D’Qwell, who was too much of a liability in coverage (and assaulting pizza drivers isn’t winning me over either).  Irving should be better.  Overall, we’re okay here, as Freeman should return to form and Muamba may make strides.  Still, I’d like to enhance depth for the post D’Qwell years (very soon), and because Freeman will be a FA next year.  Hull would go higher if he didn’t have an injury past.  He’s an all-round ILB with pretty good physical skills.  His forty was a little disappointing, but he has good instincts in coverage, which should keep him from being D’Qwell 2.0.

 

5) Tyeler Davison, DL, Fresno St.  I think that Grigson and Pagano are happy with the DL, as many have written lately.  As I said, I never saw a need for a NT, but I was worried about generating a little more pass-rush.  None of the guys available to us in this draft seem that athletically different from Kelcey Quarles, who the team reportedly likes a lot.  So, I gave up on the 295 lb. pass-rusher idea.  But this guy is the size and shape of Kendall Langford, with the quickness of a smaller guy.  He has a lot of development to do, but I think this is what Grigson and Pagano want the DEs to look like.

 

6) John Crockett, RB, North Dakota St.  This is where it’s going to get tough.  We have nine picks, and we probably don’t have nine clear roster spots for them.  Some picks won’t make the active roster this year.  Anyway, Crockett’s been one of my favorites since the East-West Shrine game, where he reportedly was great at receiving and in blitz pick-up.  A little slow forty (4.62), but a good 10-yard split (which speaks well for his ability to get to and through the hole).  Quick feet.  He’s a complete back, like a healthy Ballard, whose running is probably the weakest part of his resume.  It’ll probably be a good competition between him and Tipton for the #3 back.

 

6) Connor Halliday, QB, Washington St.  A bean-pole who weighs less than 200 lbs at 6’3.  However, he’s got a great arm and is very accurate on the short- to medium-range stuff.  Not bad on the long stuff, but makes too many bad decisions on throwing into coverage (too confident).  He’s from a run-and-shoot type offense and has a lot to learn about pro style offenses.  I like him as a lively camp arm.  He has some of the athletic traits of Luck and could possibly some day run the Colts’ offense.  No illusions: he would strictly be the guy on the PS that runs the scout team and can come to the active roster if the unthinkable happens (and develop into Luck’s future back-up).

 

7) DeAndrew White, WR, Alabama.  Probably another PS guy.  A great athlete who never put it all together in Alabama’s WR-unfriendly system.  Ran a 4.40 forty at his pro day.  Had some injury concerns.  I would say that Ryan Lankford is my favorite to win the #5 WR role (if we keep five), but getting more physical talent into camp won’t hurt.  He could surprise…

 

7) Detrick Bonner, S, Virginia Tech.  We interviewed him.  A developmental guy that could make the roster.  Good physical skills, and more of a coverage guy.  If he proves valuable on ST, he could displace Colt Anderson on the roster…who knows?

Honestly, if this was our draft, I'd probably overdose on a bunch of pills. I know you put a lot of time and effort into this and I appreciate it, but the picks are dreadful based on both need and BPA most likely. CB is something we can get in the mid-rounds, there are better OT's like Jake Fisher and TY Sambirilo that will be available in the 2nd most likely. Derron Smith I love, Hull is pretty decnt as well. You have to take an RB in the 5th like Dominique Brown that has a chance to be a difference maker. Best chance to get a starter out of a 5th rounder. A qb is a wasted pick at this point IMO, might as well get a WR like Austin Hill at that point. Take a DL guy in the 6th and get your QB in the 7th along with Bonner. 

 

Again, not a fan, and I think this draft would set us back a year or two. This is a Dan Synder Redskins type draft IMO.

[Deathiltis]

Really like it. I like Johnson, like the Tackle pick, love Mike Hull, and I like grabbing Crockett to compete for the 3rd RB spot. Though I'd rather go after someone like Langford in the 3rd/4th and draft someone like Eskridge in the 5th.

[Manning1887]

I could take this draft. 

 

I think Davison and Crockett could be nice surprises for whoever ends up drafting them.