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"The Missing Pieces" - Colts 9 Players away from SB?


ColtsFanMikeC

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http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12179331/how-many-players-away-super-bowl-team?ex_cid=sportscenterFB

 

Found this interesting.  PFF says the Colts come in as the 20th closest team to being super bowl ready and that we need at least 9 more players who rank as good/elite.

 

I take everything PFF says with a grain of salt, but they may have a point here.. if you click on the Colts, it will show you how they grade all players.

 

Our 2 'elite' players last year were TY and Vontae

 

Our 4 'good' players were Luck, Mike Adams, Costanzo, and Dwayne Allen.

 

We had 27 'average' players and 4 'bad' players: Wayne, Cherilus, Nicks, and Toler.  *note, players had to play 250 or more snaps, so punter/kicker/long snapper are not included.

 

I tend to disagree with their rank of Toler as bad, while Wayne and Cherilus were not bad until they got injured and Nicks improved throughout the year.  I think T-Rich should be moved from average to bad, and there are many other players on the 'average' list that could be bumped to 'good' or 'bad'.  And, if Luck cuts his INTs down, he should move to elite.

 

Anyway, what is interesting in looking at our roster is that we really could use a few more big impact players. 

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I mostly agree with the premise, if not the details. We need to add difference makers. There are a lot of decent/average players on this roster, and that's okay. But if you aren't a big time impact player and you aren't getting better, you can get out of the way. I don't think the team needs to go cut all those 27 "average" players, but none of them are safe.

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I mostly agree with the premise, if not the details. We need to add difference makers. There are a lot of decent/average players on this roster, and that's okay. But if you aren't a big time impact player and you aren't getting better, you can get out of the way. I don't think the team needs to go cut all those 27 "average" players, but none of them are safe.

 

Agreed.  Several of those players I think can make the step from 'average' to 'good' -- Fleener and Art Jones as the two that stick out the most, with D'Qwell being very close (he is good against the run and average in coverage).  Hopefully some young guys like Moncrief, Newsome, and Mewhort can make the jump in year 2.  If Mathis comes back healthy, it should be big for us, but I consider that far from guaranteed given his age and the injury.  As the year progressed, I worry Werner is going to be stuck as an average guy. 

 

I hope the staff lets all of those players know they've got to get after it this off-season and nothing is handed to them next year.  Of course, no team is going to be stacked with elite and very good players, the cap just doesn't allow for that, but looking at our roster we definitely have room to improve pretty much everywhere (excluding QB, P, K, and CB#1).  I don't doubt some of the young guys can improve, but like you said, 'if you aren't a big time impact player and you aren't getting better, you can get out of the way.'

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Greg Toler under bad!? Andrew Luck only good? T Rich Average? No Fleener under good (he had a good season, almost same recieving stats as Allen if I'm not mistaken)

Are these from 2 seasons ago!? They must be....

There is plenty wrong with this!!!! I did try to have an open mind....

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Art Jones is wicked overpaid.  I'm noticing a trend with Grigson overpaying for guys.  Also, Davis' stats speak for themselves as to why he had a better season than Sherman and should have been All-Pro.

 

It's no surprise this team needs an infusion of talent.  We have good players, but we need elite players.  I think the coaching staff also needs to do a better job of developing players and encouraging guys to be their best.  When you continually give Richardson the start even though he's playing terribly, that can discourage the other RBs and cause them to give less effort.  Give the best guy the nod, don't give anyone free passes

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Greg Toler under bad!? Andrew Luck only good? T Rich Average? No Fleener under good (he had a good season, almost same recieving stats as Allen if I'm not mistaken)

Are these from 2 seasons ago!? They must be....

There is plenty wrong with this!!!! I did try to have an open mind....

 

I think Fleener was on the fence this year between 'good' and 'average' -- he was good as a receiver, but IMO can still use some work as a blocker to become as complete a TE as Allen (though, I think they compliment each other well as a 1-2 punch).

Art Jones is wicked overpaid.  I'm noticing a trend with Grigson overpaying for guys.  Also, Davis' stats speak for themselves as to why he had a better season than Sherman and should have been All-Pro.

 

It's no surprise this team needs an infusion of talent.  We have good players, but we need elite players.  I think the coaching staff also needs to do a better job of developing players and encouraging guys to be their best.  When you continually give Richardson the start even though he's playing terribly, that can discourage the other RBs and cause them to give less effort.  Give the best guy the nod, don't give anyone free passes

 

I think Art Jones will improve a lot if he comes in with full health next year.  A few games he struggled he was still clearly not 100%, but games where he was 100% our run D was improved.

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Agreed. Several of those players I think can make the step from 'average' to 'good' -- Fleener and Art Jones as the two that stick out the most, with D'Qwell being very close (he is good against the run and average in coverage). Hopefully some young guys like Moncrief, Newsome, and Mewhort can make the jump in year 2. If Mathis comes back healthy, it should be big for us, but I consider that far from guaranteed given his age and the injury. As the year progressed, I worry Werner is going to be stuck as an average guy.

I hope the staff lets all of those players know they've got to get after it this off-season and nothing is handed to them next year. Of course, no team is going to be stacked with elite and very good players, the cap just doesn't allow for that, but looking at our roster we definitely have room to improve pretty much everywhere (excluding QB, P, K, and CB#1). I don't doubt some of the young guys can improve, but like you said, 'if you aren't a big time impact player and you aren't getting better, you can get out of the way.'

It's time for a mini-rebuild, to be proactive and avoid a painful plateau. All those guys have to earn it.
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Oh, also, 20th closest to Super Bowl ready, but in the conference championship? Really?

 

I thought that, too.  Some may argue we play in a weak division so we've always got a good shot to make the playoffs, but to say teams like Cleveland, NYJ, Buffalo, Cincy (who we handily easily twice), Houston, etc.. are closer than us is a bit asinine.  This formula obviously doesn't take into account what positions the good/elite players are playing (e.g., Cleveland was impressive staying in the hunt so long last year, but as long as Jonny Football or Hoyer is their QB, no chance at going all the way -- same for Buffalo and Houston -- and the Jets flat out stunk last year, they've got a lot more problems than just at QB).

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Ummm....If we have 33 players at average or above, doesn't that mean we have at least 20 that should be replaced?

 

Players had to play at least 250 total snaps to count.

 

They only counted 37 players on our roster (so guys like Tipton, Whalen, McAfee, Vinatieri, Overton, etc... who were on our final 53 man roster aren't included in their list).

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Luck has earned the elite category this year certainly. He needs more talent around him obviously however both from a receiver weapons standpoint and a run game

 

Fleener should be listed as good, Josh Gordy should be listed as bad,

 

Lance Louis and Trent Richardson both average? No

 

 

Im assuming they are factoring in injuries with Bradshaw with the "average" rating

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Most of this is just stupid. Not only is Richardson not an average RB, he's the worst RB in the NFL. Luck is more than just good. Fleener is awesome, and Toler isn't bad, I'd list him in between average and good. We are a few pieces away though. We need to add playmakers to our defense, D Lineman who can stop the run, and O Lineman who can run block and pass protect. We need to target guys like Knighton, Cedric Thornton, Orakpo, McCourty, Iupati, etc.

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So we were one of 4 remaining teams yet there are 19 more "Super Bowl ready" teams ahead of us? No thanks, I'm not buying.

 

 

Most of this is just stupid. Not only is Richardson not an average RB, he's the worst RB in the NFL. Luck is more than just good. Fleener is awesome, and Toler isn't bad, I'd list him in between average and good. We are a few pieces away though. We need to add playmakers to our defense, D Lineman who can stop the run, and O Lineman who can run block and pass protect. We need to target guys like Knighton, Cedric Thornton, Orakpo, McCourty, Iupati, etc.

 

Yes, I think this definitely shows the flaws in PFF's rating system.  It also shows it is flawed by ranking teams which are obviously lesser than Indy (e.g., NYJ, Cleveland, Buffalo, Cincy, etc. etc.) ahead of us.

 

What I think it does point out is that we can certainly use some more big impact players on this team to get us over the hump.  We do have a lot of players who are average on this team, so credit good coaching or teamwork, but like Superman said earlier in this thread -- they better improve or get out of the way. 

 

While I think this article/report is very flawed, I do think it highlights the fact that we need to continue to add impact players to this team.

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Luck has earned the elite category this year certainly. He needs more talent around him obviously however both from a receiver weapons standpoint and a run game

 

Fleener should be listed as good, Josh Gordy should be listed as bad,

 

Lance Louis and Trent Richardson both average? No

 

 

Im assuming they are factoring in injuries with Bradshaw with the "average" rating

Well said

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Firstly, Luck is elite.

Secondly, I'm not sure we need as many as 9 players to be a Superbowl team. Many existing players would become better if we simply had a couple more play-makers on defense and a couple of big uglies on the offensive line. I think we need a minimum of 5 new players + Robert Mathis to return to form.

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So we were one of 4 remaining teams yet there are 19 more "Super Bowl ready" teams ahead of us? No thanks, I'm not buying.

When you get blown out like that, it should open eyes. We wont be favoredover a healthy Manning led Broncos team. Got destroyed by the Steelers. And I get the feel nobody thinks we could've beat Baltimore in the playoffs even though we beat them in the reg season. Luck did struggle in that gm.

This also coynts the other conference. I think every team in the nfc west, including the rams are better than us. We probably arent 19th, but they're are lot of teams better than us. Not just the 3 that made it to the final 4

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Oh, also, 20th closest to Super Bowl ready, but in the conference championship? Really?

 

Exactly.  Didn't Parcells say something like 'you are what your record is'?  I think our record is a very good indication, and being in the AFC championship game indicates we're 1 game away from the SB.  You can go into all the 'we got blown away', and 'there were better teams'.  But those are the facts.

 

The Bronco's got blown away last year in the SB.  They still deserved to be there.

 

Yes, we're a few players away.  But more importantly, we're a team with some coaches that can't seem to make halftime adjustments against good teams.

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Generally agree.  How many players on this defense and O-line are entrenched in their jobs, where you look at them and think, this player is a Colt for years to come?  One?  A few?   Maybe, by default. 

 

But if this is a below average team, which I believe it is, how can Luck not be in the good category for carrying this team to the playoffs every year and the AFC Championship in year three? 

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I don't think PFF or ESPN are attempting to claim that if we acquire 9 players who meet the baseline of 'good' or 'elite' of PFF's grading system that we will win the Super Bowl. All it is giving is an interesting perspective based on a plethora of data. Trends show that if we have 9 more players that meet these baseline, then we would be best placed to win the Super Bowl based on previous years. But, of course, that data has limits.

 

Also, PFF themselves say that there grading should not be used in isolation of all other information, particularly more qualitative stuff.

 

Let's look at Richardson. He had a very bad year as a runner, but a good year as a pass blocker. So it balanced his overall grade out a bit, which is why he is listed as 'Average.' Pass blocking is important for a RB, but no where near as important as the ability to gain yards after contact. PFF do not go into the specifics of emphasizing one area of a player's game over others, because scheming and specialisms wouldn't allow for that... RB pass-blocking is much more important to some teams over others.

 

This is why if you just look at the overall grade of a player, it is the well-rounded guys that are always on top, whilst more specialist players who may excel at one thing (i.e. a situational pass-rusher) will not perform as well.

 

On top of this, they do not place emphasis on the importance of position/role. An elite QB is much more important that an elite ILB.

 

PFF is very useful when you delve a bit deeper, and in cases like this, it gives an interesting alternative perspective, but it should not be thought of as any more than that.

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Luck is not elite with the mistakes he makes. He's really, really good,but he has a lot of work to do, and hopefully has a bright future. I still dont trust him in cold weather.

Also don't think TY is elite. TY is a good #2 wr.

Pat and Vinatieri are the only elite players we have right now.

 

I think Vontae definitely belongs in the elite category.  I can see your point on Luck -- he is elite most of the time, but made a few too many mistakes this past year (granted not all were totally on him) which is why I'm fine seeing him in the 'good' category.  I tend to agree with you on TY.  TY is a very good player, he is a game breaker, but I don't see him putting up numbers like he did this season for a full 16 game season if he doesn't have a legitimate threat to help him avoid double/triple coverage.  If TY continues to improve his routes and his hands, I think he's got a shot at being 'elite' or a true #1, but I think you are correct for now -- even if he is #1, we need a #1A to help him.

 

Generally agree.  How many players on this defense and O-line are entrenched in their jobs, where you look at them and think, this player is a Colt for years to come?  One?  A few?   Maybe, by default. 

 

But if this is a below average team, which I believe it is, how can Luck not be in the good category for carrying this team to the playoffs every year and the AFC Championship in year three? 

 

O-Line -- Costanzo and Mewhort I think are going to be staples for some time to come.  I guess the jury is still out on Holmes, Harrison and Thornton but I think we definitely should not avoid looking for replacements there. 

 

D-Line -- Art Jones is my favorite 'young' one.  I think Hughes came along nicely this year and may be sticking around for a while.  Time will tell with Kerr, he was kind of up-and-down this season, but as a UDFA rookie, I think he's got potential to be a good one for us.  But yea, we need to look at improving on this side of the line in the offseason, too.

 

Luck was in the 'good' category, but they didn't have him 'elite'.  I can see the argument both ways.  I don't think many QBs in this league could have done what Luck has done for our team over the past 3 years (Aaron Rogers and maybe a handful of others could have put this team on their back like Luck has).  However, I think the reason he is lumped into the 'good' category is his turnovers -- I think we could stand to get him another receiving threat, but more important is to improve the line so he has more time and improve the defense more so he is more comfortable throwing the ball away and punting rather than putting everything on his shoulders.

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D-Line -- Art Jones is my favorite 'young' one. 

 

He may be your favourite, but his contribution this season has been grossly overstated. Not only did he miss significant time, but when healthy he provided little or not pass rush and was very inconsistent against the run. A better player beside him may help, and I think he has what it takes to be a great run-stopper, but I don't see him ever contributing in a big way to the pass rush, he doesn't even open up much for the players behind him.

 

I see him as a long-term answer at DE, but I don't see him ever being a difference maker.

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http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12179331/how-many-players-away-super-bowl-team?ex_cid=sportscenterFB

 

Found this interesting.  PFF says the Colts come in as the 20th closest team to being super bowl ready and that we need at least 9 more players who rank as good/elite.

 

I take everything PFF says with a grain of salt, but they may have a point here.. if you click on the Colts, it will show you how they grade all players.

 

Our 2 'elite' players last year were TY and Vontae

 

Our 4 'good' players were Luck, Mike Adams, Costanzo, and Dwayne Allen.

 

We had 27 'average' players and 4 'bad' players: Wayne, Cherilus, Nicks, and Toler.  *note, players had to play 250 or more snaps, so punter/kicker/long snapper are not included.

 

I tend to disagree with their rank of Toler as bad, while Wayne and Cherilus were not bad until they got injured and Nicks improved throughout the year.  I think T-Rich should be moved from average to bad, and there are many other players on the 'average' list that could be bumped to 'good' or 'bad'.  And, if Luck cuts his INTs down, he should move to elite.

 

Anyway, what is interesting in looking at our roster is that we really could use a few more big impact players. 

I stopped reading after seeing Luck in the same category as Adams, Costanzo and Allen. I could writer better analysis than this crap

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He may be your favourite, but his contribution this season has been grossly overstated. Not only did he miss significant time, but when healthy he provided little or not pass rush and was very inconsistent against the run. A better player beside him may help, and I think he has what it takes to be a great run-stopper, but I don't see him ever contributing in a big way to the pass rush, he doesn't even open up much for the players behind him.

 

I see him as a long-term answer at DE, but I don't see him ever being a difference maker.

 

With the Ravens and with us the yards per carry allowed on runs was much considerably less.  It was noticeable in at least a couple games that he wasn't fully healthy, but I think he can be a difference maker (especially if we give him a playmaker to play along side him).  He needs to stay healthy is the big thing.  He should have at least 4-6 more solid years in him if he can manage that.

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It's a neat idea, but just really poor execution and player ranks.  The Browns are a better SB contender than us? What...?  The Texans? didn't we beat them twice? I mean, the Bills and Giants are more SB ready than the Colts? The Bengals!?  None of that makes any sense at all.

 

Some of the player rankings are wonky as well.  I'm sorry, but Peyton Manning at average?  Sure, he had a down year by his standards, but then why is Brees up at elite?  He was a turnover machine just like Luck.

 

Sorry, I just don't buy that Peyton deserves to be in the same category as Nick Foles, Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick, and Zach Mettenburger/Charlie Whitehurst.  Or be BELOW the likes of Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Matt Ryan.

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He may be your favourite, but his contribution this season has been grossly overstated. Not only did he miss significant time, but when healthy he provided little or not pass rush and was very inconsistent against the run. A better player beside him may help, and I think he has what it takes to be a great run-stopper, but I don't see him ever contributing in a big way to the pass rush, he doesn't even open up much for the players behind him.

 

I see him as a long-term answer at DE, but I don't see him ever being a difference maker.

 

lmao that you ever expected A Jones to Become a pass rusher. You people kill me. He came here as a run stopper who gets a little pressure.

Do you people have no Clue who he was playing with/for before he came here? Good grief!

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I don't think PFF or ESPN are attempting to claim that if we acquire 9 players who meet the baseline of 'good' or 'elite' of PFF's grading system that we will win the Super Bowl. All it is giving is an interesting perspective based on a plethora of data. Trends show that if we have 9 more players that meet these baseline, then we would be best placed to win the Super Bowl based on previous years. But, of course, that data has limits.

 

Also, PFF themselves say that there grading should not be used in isolation of all other information, particularly more qualitative stuff.

 

Let's look at Richardson. He had a very bad year as a runner, but a good year as a pass blocker. So it balanced his overall grade out a bit, which is why he is listed as 'Average.' Pass blocking is important for a RB, but no where near as important as the ability to gain yards after contact. PFF do not go into the specifics of emphasizing one area of a player's game over others, because scheming and specialisms wouldn't allow for that... RB pass-blocking is much more important to some teams over others.

 

This is why if you just look at the overall grade of a player, it is the well-rounded guys that are always on top, whilst more specialist players who may excel at one thing (i.e. a situational pass-rusher) will not perform as well.

 

On top of this, they do not place emphasis on the importance of position/role. An elite QB is much more important that an elite ILB.

 

PFF is very useful when you delve a bit deeper, and in cases like this, it gives an interesting alternative perspective, but it should not be thought of as any more than that.

 

You make some good points here. PFF is about analyzing individual play, not team play. For instance, the Colts offense, which was a league leader in yards and points, received a -50 overall rating from PFF. But that's a total grade from a bunch of individual grades, and a team isn't just a collection of individual players.

 

So they shouldn't have labeled this ranking as "how many players are you from reaching the Super Bowl," because that's nonsense.

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For the record I believe Luck is definitely an elite player. The Colts receivers dropped more passes than any other team in the league (by a pretty wide margin) were 21st ranked in pass blocking (per pff themselves) and don't have much of a running game. Given all those handicaps, throwing 4761 yards and 40 tds (not to mention more 3 tds rushing) and bringing a team to the AFC championships is indicative of nothing less than elite play. Luck is - at worst - the 3rd best QB in the league right now and possibly the best. The only ones who even might have a claim over him would be Rodgers and Brady, and both of those are pretty debatable imo.

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lmao that you ever expected A Jones to Become a pass rusher. You people kill me. He came here as a run stopper who gets a little pressure.

Do you people have no Clue who he was playing with/for before he came here? Good grief!

 

Look back at my comments when we signed him and you will find that I clearly pointed out his lack of pass rushing potency when others proclaimed he would be a big pass rushing contributor.

 

Please try not to laugh at my comments again... it's embarrassing for you.

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Art Jones is wicked overpaid.  I'm noticing a trend with Grigson overpaying for guys.  Also, Davis' stats speak for themselves as to why he had a better season than Sherman and should have been All-Pro.

 

It's no surprise this team needs an infusion of talent.  We have good players, but we need elite players.  I think the coaching staff also needs to do a better job of developing players and encouraging guys to be their best.  When you continually give Richardson the start even though he's playing terribly, that can discourage the other RBs and cause them to give less effort.  Give the best guy the nod, don't give anyone free passes

 

Grigson has said every year during FA signing period that he knows he overpays for the players he wants.   Says that's a function of free agency and that there isn't much choice if you're going to spend money there.

 

Perhaps this is one reason Polian hated going into the free agency market?

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lmao that you ever expected A Jones to Become a pass rusher. You people kill me. He came here as a run stopper who gets a little pressure.

Do you people have no Clue who he was playing with/for before he came here? Good grief!

 

You keep positioning yourself as an all-knowing savant.  However the reality is that the exact opposite is far closer to reality.

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Grigson has said every year during FA signing period that he knows he overpays for the players he wants.   Says that's a function of free agency and that there isn't much choice if you're going to spend money there.

 

Perhaps this is one reason Polian hated going into the free agency market?

 

Ehh, problem with Polian is that he overpaid his own guys, too. But that's a different topic...

 

As for Grigson overpaying in free agency, maybe by a little. I think it's a nitpick, to be honest, when you compare the guys he's signed with their perceived market at the time and their pay rankings respective to their positions. Maybe Gosder was more of a $6m/year guy, maybe Walden was more of a $3m/year guy, but it's not like he's throwing $10m/year at average guys who are only worth half of that. (I give him a pass on Toler, because the CB market was very weird that offseason. Historically, $5m/year for a #2 corner is spot on, but we could have had guys with #1 potential for the same money.)

 

And the saving grace is that, aside from Cherilus and Landry, all those contracts are easy to shed after a year or two, if necessary. RJF is overpaid, but he's been paid a total of $8.5m for two years, and has started 28 of 37 games, and has been a decent player. And if we wanted to cut him, it would be painless, and would save a total of $11m over the next two seasons. The structure of the majority of his FA contracts have been very team friendly.

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