3 years later: evaluating and comparing the 2012 draft class

[21isSuperman]

People commonly say it takes 3 years to be able to fully evaluate a player (even though most fans and teams show less patience than that).  It has now been 3 years for the 2012 class, which was the first draft class for this new regime.

 

Pick 1: Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford

Pick 3: Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama (obtained via trade)

Pick 34: Coby Fleener – TE – Stanford

Pick 64: Dwayne Allen – TE – Clemson

Pick 92: T.Y. Hilton – WR – Florida International

Pick 136: Josh Chapman – DT – Alabama

Pick 170: Vick Ballard – RB – Mississippi State

Pick 206: LaVon Brazill – WR – Ohio

Pick 208: Justin Anderson – G – Georgia

Pick 214: Tim Fugger – LB – Vanderbilt

Pick 253: Chandler Harnish – QB – Northern Illinois

 

For comparison's sake, the two teams playing in the Super Bowl this year had the following draft picks:

 

Patriots:

Pick 21: Chandler Jones – DE – Syracuse

Pick 25: Dont’a Hightower – LB – Alabama

Pick 48: Tavon Wilson – S – Illinois

Pick 90: Jake Bequette – DE – Arkansas

Pick 197: Nate Ebner – CB – Ohio state

Pick 224: Alfonzo Dennard – CB – Nebraska

Pick 235: Jeremy Ebert – WR – Northwestern

 

Seahawks:

Pick 15: Bruce Irvin – DE – West Virginia

Pick 47: Bobby Wagner – LB – Utah State

Pick 75: Russell Wilson – QB – Wisconsin

Pick 106: Robert Turbin – RB – Utah State

Pick 114: Jaye Howard – DT - Florida

Pick 154: Korey Toomer – LB – Idaho

Pick 172: Jeremy Lane – CB – Northwestern State

Pick 181: Winston Guy – S – Kentucky

Pick 225: J.R. Sweezy – DE – NC State

Pick 232: Greg Scruggs – DE – Louisville

 

You can also read what Bucky Brooks has to say on this class, and other classes.  For what it's worth, he gave the Pats a B and the Seahawks an A.  I agree with Bucky's marks, and I would give our class a B+/A-.  What grade do you give the Colts on their 2012 draft class and how do you think our 2012 class compares with that of New England and Seattle?

[TKnight24]

It's sad how only 4 of our picks worked out so far

Ballard stays hurt

Brazill was a knucklehead

Chapman is at best average

Fugger: Gone

Anderson: Gone

Richardson: BUST

Wish Ballard could stay healthy, great rookie year from him

And Brazill would've stayed off the weed (Stephen A. Smith voice) maybe we wouldn't have gotten Moncrief so I can't really complain

But I'd give it a solid B+

[AntonMcG]

My God... People have high expectations of a draft. Our 2012 draft was a huge success.

Only the Seahawks could claim to have has as good a draft.

[theanarchist]

People commonly say it takes 3 years to be able to fully evaluate a player (even though most fans and teams show less patience than that).  It has now been 3 years for the 2012 class, which was the first draft class for this new regime.

 

Pick 1: Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford

Pick 3: Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama (obtained via trade)

Pick 34: Coby Fleener – TE – Stanford

Pick 64: Dwayne Allen – TE – Clemson

Pick 92: T.Y. Hilton – WR – Florida International

Pick 136: Josh Chapman – DT – Alabama

Pick 170: Vick Ballard – RB – Mississippi State

Pick 206: LaVon Brazill – WR – Ohio

Pick 208: Justin Anderson – G – Georgia

Pick 214: Tim Fugger – LB – Vanderbilt

Pick 253: Chandler Harnish – QB – Northern Illinois

 

 

This class has to be an A. If you insist on throwing Richardson in then I'll give it a B. Ballard was a great pick, too bad he cant stay healthy. I compare the Hilton pick to Robert Mathis. Big home run hit in the middle rounds. Of course Luck makes this draft and the two TE's are worthy of being placed in the upper echelon of TE's combo's of all NFL teams.

[scooter4910]

If these recruits required a year or two of practice/grooming to get them to a fully functioning level...how well do you think we did against our current standings?

 

Team Ranking Overall Rushing Passing Offense 3rd 100.8 (22nd) 305.9 (1st) Defense 11th 113.4 (18th) 229.3 (12th)

 

I'm not that impressed....offense maybe a B-B+ (rushing hurt badly). Defense, C-C+

[mo0nlighting]

For a team coming off 2-14 and being completely gutted, this draft class was a great foundation for the future.  Solid A for me.  

[scooter4910]

It's amazing how many posters can be so complacent. This isn't Pop Warner where everyone gets a trophy. This is the NFL...a business...and at its hypothetical market cap the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company if included in the S&P 500.

 

If these 32 team were competing for market share I can guarantee the "shareholders" of the Colts franchise would be up in arms. I guess that's one of the perks of being included within a monopoly. Second best is good enough as long as they're still getting paid.

[Larry Horseman]

That's an A draft without TRich, who personally should be considered the Colts 2014 pick. You all have too high expectations if you think otherwise. 7 players have made major contributions at some point.

[Larry Horseman]

It's amazing how many posters can be so complacent. This isn't Pop Warner where everyone gets a trophy. This is the NFL...a business...and at its hypothetical market cap the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company if included in the S&P 500.

If these 32 team were competing for market share I can guarantee the "shareholders" of the Colts franchise would be up in arms. I guess that's one of the perks of being included within a monopoly. Second best is good enough as long as they're still getting paid.

No they wouldn't. Consistently winning=money. More so than random SB runs. There's improvements that need to be made, and I want more SBs, but since 1995, the Colts have missed the playoffs 4 times. Two of those times resulted in a dominant player. That's upper tier for any business. In the Fortune 500 world, that would be a force.

[scooter4910]

No they wouldn't. Consistently winning=money. More so than random SB runs. There's improvements that need to be made, and I want more SBs, but since 1995, the Colts have missed the playoffs 4 times. Two of those times resulted in a dominant player. That's upper tier for any business. In the Fortune 500 world, that would be a force.

Sixteen playoff visits in the last twenty years with only two trips to the Super Bowl....and our only win was against the Bears (of all teams) during a typhoon.

 

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride.

 

My employer would be furious if we allowed our competitors to man handle us like that (ps, my firm is much, much, larger than the NFL)

[ricker182]

Just drafting Luck it would be wise to give the Colts an A.

Luck, Hilton, Allen, and Fleener?

They're all VERY good.

Definite A in my book.

[Larry Horseman]

Sixteen playoff visits in the last twenty years with only two trips to the Super Bowl....and our only win was against the Bears (of all teams) during a typhoon.

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride.

My employer would be furious if we allowed our competitors to man handle us like that (ps, my firm is much, much, larger than the NFL)

You and me as a NFL fan are disappointed with that. If you think your employer would be then I don't think you understand American capitalism.

[scooter4910]

You and me as a NFL fan are disappointed with that. If you think your employer would be then I don't think you understand American capitalism.

American football is formulated as a military campaign with size, strength, speed and tactics.....continually being second best is not a good strategy and will ultimately lead to failure. You may loose the battle but hopefully not the war. We are not winning the war.

 

At least in business you might fill a niche market as long as the powerhouses don't feel threatened. And my employer would definitely not accept 2nd best under any circumstances.

[Hammer]

Great draft=A. Richardson shouldn't have been in this class. Doing my best to forget that trade ever happened, but if we must place him in a draft class, then it must be in the 2014 class.

[el duderino]

LOL Pick 225: J.R. Sweezy – DE – NC State

he play´s guard for the seahawks, was he really drafted as a DE?

[Patagonia Chris]

American football is formulated as a military campaign with size, strength, speed and tactics.....continually being second best is not a good strategy and will ultimately lead to failure. You may loose the battle but hopefully not the war. We are not winning the war.

 

At least in business you might fill a niche market as long as the powerhouses don't feel threatened. And my employer would definitely not accept 2nd best under any circumstances.

 

Oh wow you work for a big company!! You're so much better than the rest of us! Thank you for gracing us with your presence...Help us understand how the Colts can be more like you're employer. We'll all pray that Grigson learns the lesson and makes us like the best for profit organization in America!!!!

[Gavin]

We hit on 6 picks if you count Ballard though he hasn't seem to stay healthy he showed talent and hitting on 6 picks in a draft is damn good in my book, A, Chapman is a solid but not great rotational NT, Hoping we work some trade down chances and get some solid talent in middle of this draft

[HtownColt]

It's sad how only 4 of our picks worked out so far

Ballard stays hurt

Brazill was a knucklehead

Chapman is at best average

Fugger: Gone

Anderson: Gone

Richardson: BUST

Wish Ballard could stay healthy, great rookie year from him

And Brazill would've stayed off the weed (Stephen A. Smith voice) maybe we wouldn't have gotten Moncrief so I can't really complain

But I'd give it a solid B+

Sad? Teams would kill to have 4 of their picks still be key contributors 3 years later

[TKnight24]

Sad? Teams would kill to have 4 of their picks still be key contributors 3 years later

Yeah it's sad. Could've been 5 but Brazill was a knucklehead. 6 but Ballard has 2 freak injuries

7 if Trent didn't stink so much

[21isSuperman]

LOL Pick 225: J.R. Sweezy – DE – NC State

he play´s guard for the seahawks, was he really drafted as a DE?

Yup.  Drafted as a DE and now plays OL.  I'm always really impressed when guys can make that switch from college to the pros.  You've been playing on the defensive line for however many years in college, you've been learning the techniques and skill for that position, now switch to a different position on the other side of the ball in the most difficult football league.

[Ryan Pelley]

It's a rare occasion that one team can draft their offensive center pieces for the next 15 years all in a single draft. Shame that Vick Ballard has suffered two major injuries, because he looked like the the Colts RB of the future with a nice rookie year. But still, the first four picks alone deserve an A++++.

[scooter4910]

Oh wow you work for a big company!! You're so much better than the rest of us! Thank you for gracing us with your presence...Help us understand how the Colts can be more like you're employer. We'll all pray that Grigson learns the lesson and makes us like the best for profit organization in America!!!!

So you can't really add anything to the discussion so you resort to snide comments.......nice. Bet you're a hoot on the other websites you troll.

[AntonMcG]

Hmm... I am not sure you have any idea what you are talking about...

 

It's amazing how many posters can be so complacent. This isn't Pop Warner where everyone gets a trophy. This is the NFL...a business...and at its hypothetical market cap the NFL would be the 106th-biggest company if included in the S&P 500.

 

No it's not, all profits funnel down to the franchises, making it a non-profit organization.

 

If these 32 team were competing for market share I can guarantee the "shareholders" of the Colts franchise would be up in arms. I guess that's one of the perks of being included within a monopoly. Second best is good enough as long as they're still getting paid.

 

32 teams are competing for market share, otherwise all teams would have the exact same valuation, which they don't. Winning is not overly aligned to commercial success. The Cowboys are by far and away the most commercially successful team in the NFL, valued at $2.3 billion with 2012 revenue of $539, they haven't won a Super Bowl in 19 years. Redskins are the third most valuable franchise at $1.7 billion and had 2012 revenue of $381... this is one of the least successful franchises of the past 15 years.

 

Compare that to an environment that isn't confined to the economic parameters set by it's governing body, i.e. soccer - and the results are the same... Manchester United had their worst season in 25 years last year, yet it was their most commercially successful year ever.

 

Now, if what you are trying to do is simply equate 'market share' to winning in the NFL, then that just does not work, as one is as simple calculation with very little metrics to consider (winning in NFL), whilst the other is incredibly complex and based around many economic factors (market share).

 

For example, I work for a huge IT and Telecoms services company. When a multi-million dollar tender comes out, we are the front runner in many cases, however, in other cases, we are not, even when going up against 'smaller companies', because there are so many factors at play such as the local market, technology specialisms, price, relationships, salesmanship, company strategy, marketing, quality of solution design etc etc.

 

So your overly simplistic attempt at 'enlightening us' just does not hold up.

 

P.S. How is being 'included in a monopoly' considered a perk of not having to be held accountable? That comment just makes no sense. I think what you are trying to get at is that the NFL is an ecosystem that harbours much more communist traits (tv money distribution, salary cap, draft) than capitalist traits. But even if that is what you are trying to get at, to say that '2nd is good enough' because of this environment is very naïve.

 

 

Sixteen playoff visits in the last twenty years with only two trips to the Super Bowl....and our only win was against the Bears (of all teams) during a typhoon.

 

Always the bridesmaid but never the bride.

 

My employer would be furious if we allowed our competitors to man handle us like that (ps, my firm is much, much, larger than the NFL)

 

Again, your analogy makes little sense as the two things are not comparable.

 

 

American football is formulated as a military campaign with size, strength, speed and tactics.....continually being second best is not a good strategy and will ultimately lead to failure. You may loose the battle but hopefully not the war. We are not winning the war.

 

What? How is 'being second best' a strategy the Colts are vying for? The rest of this paragraph is just baffling.

 

At least in business you might fill a niche market as long as the powerhouses don't feel threatened. And my employer would definitely not accept 2nd best under any circumstances.

 

So you are admitting the two things are completely different now?

 

Has your employer one every single contract or piece of market share it has gone after? Who is this mythically, wondrous company?

 

I was completely unaware that every successful company on the planet that is happy with its economic position was in an entirely unique industry, because, judging by your remarks, there is no way any company, regardless or growth, stability, strategy etc. could ever be happy unless it is the unanimous industry #1 who has never suffered significant loss and/or setback (by the way... no such company exists).

 

ExxonMobil must be devastated with it's $436 billion revenue in 2013 when Royal Dutch Shell managed $451 billion. Exxon may as well pack up and go home...

[scooter4910]

Hmm... I am not sure you have any idea what you are talking about...

Wow...you're really bored aren't you. You've probably been working on this reply since last night.

 

- I know the NFL is a nonprofit. That's why I said "hypothetical market cap".

 

- Yes if you want to scroll down to hotdog sales and parking fees the values of the firms very greatly. But if revenues were based upon win/loss records, our "shareholders" would not as complacent as you appear to be with an 11-5 record and being dusted 16 times in the playoffs.

 

- Obviously being in a monopoly insulates you from market conditions. You think Jacksonville would be competitive if any city in Florida could start a team? You think Irsay would be as happy with an 11-5 record if he was competing with Bloomington, Muncie or Gary for local market share?

 

- Being second best isn't a strategy obviously...but all you folks excited about our "wonderful season" and making it to the AFCCG and everything is on schedule with our rebuild and roses, puppy dogs, and unicorns....are irritating.

 

- Has your employer one every single contract or piece of market share it has gone after? Who is this mythically, wondrous company? In my opinion, yes.....DoD.

 

- ExxonMobil and Shell don't have public, head-to-head competition to determine supremacy. As long as shareholders are happy with their RoI all is good.

 

Again my point was if revenue was based upon our win/loss records and we were a publicly held company, our shareholders wouldn't be as complacent about our performance as some of you posters and possibly Colts management appear to be.

 

Feel free to scroll into the weeds on my comment but I'm off to do other things.

[braveheartcolt]

Wow...you're really bored aren't you. You've probably been working on this reply since last night.

 

- I know the NFL is a nonprofit. That's why I said "hypothetical market cap".

 

- Yes if you want to scroll down to hotdog sales and parking fees the values of the firms very greatly. But if revenues were based upon win/loss records, our "shareholders" would not as complacent as you appear to be with an 11-5 record and being dusted 16 times in the playoffs.

 

- Obviously being in a monopoly insulates you from market conditions. You think Jacksonville would be competitive if any city in Florida could start a team? You think Irsay would be as happy with an 11-5 record if he was competing with Bloomington, Muncie or Gary for local market share?

 

- Being second best isn't a strategy obviously...but all you folks excited about our "wonderful season" and making it to the AFCCG and everything is on schedule with our rebuild and roses, puppy dogs, and unicorns....are irritating.

 

- Has your employer one every single contract or piece of market share it has gone after? Who is this mythically, wondrous company? In my opinion, yes.....DoD.

 

- ExxonMobil and Shell don't have public, head-to-head competition to determine supremacy. As long as shareholders are happy with their RoR all is good.

 

Again my point was if revenue was based upon our win/loss records and we were a publicly held company, our shareholders wouldn't be as complacent about our performance as some of you posters and possibly Colts management appear to be.

 

Feel free to scroll into the weeds on my comment but I'm off to do other things.

Good.

[Cynjin]

That's an A draft without TRich, who personally should be considered the Colts 2014 pick. You all have too high expectations if you think otherwise. 7 players have made major contributions at some point.

I agree, I would put TRich in the 2014 draft since that is the pick that was used to get him.

[Cynjin]

American football is formulated as a military campaign with size, strength, speed and tactics.....continually being second best is not a good strategy and will ultimately lead to failure. You may loose the battle but hopefully not the war. We are not winning the war.

 

At least in business you might fill a niche market as long as the powerhouses don't feel threatened. And my employer would definitely not accept 2nd best under any circumstances.

The Colts may not be winning any war, but you are definitely not winning the argument.

[scooter4910]

The Colts may not be winning any war, but you are definitely not winning the argument.

Yep, you appear to be right. Oh well.

[scooter4910]

Good.

Yea!!! You contributed. Good for you.

[AntonMcG]

Ha...

 

Wow...you're really bored aren't you. You've probably been working on this reply since last night.

 

Nope, took about five minutes, because I know what I am talking about.

 

 

- I know the NFL is a nonprofit. That's why I said "hypothetical market cap".

 

Yeah... you stole that from a business week article from months ago. Anyway, you said it was a business, and it is not.

 

- Yes if you want to scroll down to hotdog sales and parking fees the values of the firms very greatly. But if revenues were based upon win/loss records, our "shareholders" would not as complacent as you appear to be with an 11-5 record and being dusted 16 times in the playoffs.

 

... you don't need to scroll down to anywhere near that granular detail. You are trying to compare things that are not comparable due to completely different parameters and complexities. And even if you did compare them, your premise is way off, many big companies would be happy under these circumstances.

 

- Obviously being in a monopoly insulates you from market conditions. You think Jacksonville would be competitive if any city in Florida could start a team? You think Irsay would be as happy with an 11-5 record if he was competing with Bloomington, Muncie or Gary for local market share?

 

That has nothing to do with it being a monopoly.  It is because NFL teams are in a franchised, controlled and heavily regulated environment that ironically does not inherit many of the capitalist traits of the US.

 

- Being second best isn't a strategy obviously...but all you folks excited about our "wonderful season" and making it to the AFCCG and everything is on schedule with our rebuild and roses, puppy dogs, and unicorns....are irritating.

 

Individual seasons aren't silos that are mutually exclusive from previous and future seasons. We just competed in the AFCCG in our third year of a complete rebuild, with a very young QB and skill players, whilst being in a strong cap position. To use your economic comparability... we are in our third financial year of strong, profitable growth and all competent analysts would project a long-term upward trend... these projections would drive up our stock price, therefore appeasing our make-believe stock holders.  

 

- Has your employer one every single contract or piece of market share it has gone after? Who is this mythically, wondrous company? In my opinion, yes.....DoD.

 

You said you worked for a firm... DoD is not a firm. I really hope you don't work on the business or operations end of things. :o

 

And my question required a simple yes or no, not really open to opinion.

 

- ExxonMobil and Shell don't have public, head-to-head competition to determine supremacy.

 

Yeah the do.

 

As long as shareholders are happy with their RoR all is good.

 

So you're admitting you entire analogy doesn't make sense?

 

Again my point was if revenue was based upon our win/loss records and we were a publicly held company, our shareholders wouldn't be as complacent about our performance as some of you posters and possibly Colts management appear to be.

 

Yeah, I get your point... it's just wrong and doesn't make any sense.

 

Feel free to scroll into the weeds on my comment but I'm off to do other things.

 

Probably for the best.

[Patagonia Chris]

So you can't really add anything to the discussion so you resort to snide comments.......nice. Bet you're a hoot on the other websites you troll.

 

I could have added to it but it was way too easy to make fun of you. I don't troll this board. Far from it. I'm not for certain who the sharpest tool on this board is, but you have managed to cement yourself as the biggest tool on this board in under 70 posts. Congratulations.

[scooter4910]

I could have added to it but it was way too easy to make fun of you. I don't troll this board. Far from it. I'm not for certain who the sharpest tool on this board is, but you have managed to cement yourself as the biggest tool on this board in under 70 posts. Congratulations.

I'm #1...I'm #1!!! Yea.

[scooter4910]

Ha...

If you don't accept my basic premise that the organization would be run differently if it was a free market, shareholder owned firm and profits were derived off our win/loss record....then I guess we have nothing to debate do we?

 

As is, it's part of a monopoly and as long as Irsay is making money he really has no reason to change how he runs his team. Ultimately if the fans accept that an 11-5 record and winning the Super Bowl once every 20 years is good enough then we will continue on the path we were on with Manning and now Luck.

 

C'est la vie

[AntonMcG]

If you don't accept my basic premise that the organization would be run differently if it was a free market, shareholder owned firm and profits were derived off our win/loss record....then I guess we have nothing to debate do we?

 

As is, it's part of a monopoly and as long as Irsay is making money he really has no reason to change how he runs his team. Ultimately if the fans accept that an 11-5 record and winning the Super Bowl once every 20 years is good enough then we will continue on the path we were on with Manning and now Luck.

 

C'est la vie

 

If we were in this free market, then so would the other 31 teams, and this ecosystem would not be good for us given that we are a small market team. Look at La Liga or the EPL, big teams dominate year in and year out. If the NFL was constructed within a free market, Dallas, Washington and the NY teams would dominate. We would be doing very well to be an 11-5 team.

 

Your premise is just silly and in so many ways contradictory. Irsay is very willing to spend money, he clearly when Manning left that he wanted to build a team not based on 'star wars' offensive numbers, but on a balanced, all round team. This process doesn't happen over night, and there will be bumps in the road.

 

Every team in this league is trying to win, and no team dominates over a sustained period. We are in the mix, we are on an upward trajectory, we have been better every year since 2012, and all indications say we will be better next year as well.

[Patagonia Chris]

I'm #1...I'm #1!!! Yea.

 

Just like your company you work for!!

[scooter4910]

Just like your company you work for!!

For a minute there I thought you were being sarcastic but now I really appreciate it.....thanks much.

[Patagonia Chris]

For a minute there I thought you were being sarcastic but now I really appreciate it.....thanks much.

 

Nah I can't wait to hear everything you have to say. I hope that by communicating with someone of your intellect and success that I will better my own life. Perhaps I will one day be half the human you are. Godspeed sir.

[scooter4910]

Nah I can't wait to hear everything you have to say. I hope that by communicating with someone of your intellect and success that I will better my own life. Perhaps I will one day be half the human you are. Godspeed sir.

If there's anything I can help you with please let me know. I promise not to talk over your head.

[Jdubu]

I agree, I would put TRich in the 2014 draft since that is the pick that was used to get him.

I would not add TRich in our 2012 draft class, if we had that pick in 2012, would the Colts picked him or someone else with that pick? TRich belongs in the draft class his trade was made for since that's when we got the guy. He was a bust for us whichever draft he gets tagged to though

[braveheartcolt]

Yea!!! You contributed. Good for you.

You said you were off to do other things. What happened?