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Speculation Thread: What do you think happened at Deflategate? (Merge)


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Not so much a "Peyton homer" as much as a different opinion from someone you have a lot of respect for. He and Brady sort of pushed the NFL to allow teams to work up their own balls for both home and road games, so he knows how this works. 

 

I've seen plenty of ex-QBs lambaste the Pats for this while others are saying it's one of the most overblown stories in the history of the league. 

 

Just a hypothetical question anyway. I doubt Manning would share an opinion even if he has a strong one. It would be interesting if someone like him were to come out with an unpopular stance on the topic. 

Once again, you're correct in your comment that I do have an enormous amount of respect for him, and I do take notice of his comments, and his opinions.    

 

I also have to believe that his stance would be unpopular with some whatever it was.  He's probably wise to stay mum.

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I'm assuming the balls were inflated to the bottom of the limit 12.5 at halftime. The NFL then says they tested the balls at the end of the game and they were all in compliance. If true and considering it got colder as the night went on , how do they explain the Pat and Colt balls staying in compliance ? Don't for get that you have the "WHOLE  " game on the Colt balls . Why didn't these balls lose more than 1 PSI being in the cold for 4 hours , while the Pats lost all that PSI just from the start to the Jackson INT ?

 

It's not time-dependent, it's temperature-dependent. 

 

If the Patriots started off at 12.5 PSI, the lowest allowed pressure, and Indy started at 13.5 PSI, then what the MIT guy was saying is that NE's balls would have dropped below the limit while it's possible that Indy's stayed within it. 

 

It's not my theory so don't assume that's what I'm saying. I just think it's crazy that we can't seem to get a consistent scientific opinion on something like this. It's like the laws of physics don't exist when it comes to footballs. Like I said, I don't know what to believe, or rather who to believe. 

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It's not time-dependent, it's temperature-dependent. 

 

If the Patriots started off at 12.5 PSI, the lowest allowed pressure, and Indy started at 13.5 PSI, then what the MIT guy was saying is that NE's balls would have dropped below the limit while it's possible that Indy's stayed within it. 

 

It's not my theory so don't assume that's what I'm saying. I just think it's crazy that we can't seem to get a consistent scientific opinion on something like this. It's like the laws of physics don't exist when it comes to footballs. Like I said, I don't know what to believe, or rather who to believe. 

Maybe part of the problem is balls are pre conditioned by QBs differently.  Science says the exact same conditions have to exist to compare.

I would guess. I failed physics in HS :)

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Maybe part of the problem is balls are pre conditioned by QBs differently.  Science says the exact same conditions have to exist to compare.

I would guess. I failed physics in HS :)

 

That was another thing the MIT guy mentioned on EEI. If the Patriots' processes to "rub" and break in the balls create enough friction, then the air inside the balls can be as warm as 80 or 85 degrees (as compared to room temp). He said he couldn't say without knowing what they did. Sounds like there are a lot of variables. 

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I don't care about all the science part of it.... or the math.....or what the reason is, was, could be or  could not be.

 

Bottom line ~~   the footballs were found to be out of compliance and  that seems to be certain.

 

It is / was against the rules, and ignorance is not an excuse.   An infraction was found and appropriate action needs to be taken.

 

The question that remains is was it deliberate and intentional.  I believe that is what the investigation will determine.

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Again, I will point out that no scientific formula will explain this without knowing exact temperatures and exact psi readings at exact times.

The NFL didn't release that information. They don't want to.

Belichick gave us the reason why the patriots balls lost air pressure. He said Saturday that the patriots do something unique in their preparation process that artificially increases the psi reading by approx. 1 psi.

He implied that is occurs from the football's being rubbed pre game. I am no scientist, and I am not the Mona Lisa Vito of football stuff, but I have a hard time believing that rubbing the exterior surface of a football is going to increase the pressure inside that football so significantly over such a short amount of time.

It seems though, the rules relating to this matter only specify that the football has to be at 12.5 - 13.5 psi to pass the initial inspection and that no one is allowed to adjust the pressure for the rest of the game.

If that's the case, then technically the Pats did not break any rules. Did they "take deliberate and calculated actions to bypass a rule designed the ensure fair play"? That's up to the NFL to decide...but don't expect an honest investigation to come from the NFL in the mean time.

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I don't care about all the science part of it.... or the math.....or what the reason is, was, could be or  could not be.

 

Bottom line ~~   the footballs were found to be out of compliance and  that seems to be certain.

 

It is / was against the rules, and ignorance is not an excuse.   An infraction was found and appropriate action needs to be taken.

 

The question that remains is was it deliberate and intentional.  I believe that is what the investigation will determine.

 

No infraction has been found. The balls were tested and they were in regulation when the refs released them. At half time, they were underinflated. What infraction was committed?

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No infraction has been found. The balls were tested and they were in regulation when the refs released them. At half time, they were underinflated. What infraction was committed?

Well as to what has been said the refs checked the balls 2 hours before the game and given back to the Patriots and between that time and half time when the balls were checked they were underflated.  So that is the infraction.  ;)

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You're going to make me do the math :)

 

So lets look at the math.
 
Assumptions:
 
1. The referee's did their checks, and at the time of inspection, all balls were between the required 12.5 and 13.5 psi.
2. the temp in the refs room was 72F
 
We will only look at the pressure change between the refs measuring them and 1/2 time. We could do the same exercise from 1/2 time to end of game if wanted also.
 
 
The formula.
 
p1/t1 = p2/t2
 
p1 and p2 are starting and ending pressures in absolute pressures (so we will add or subtract 14.7 (atmospheric pressure) to the gauge pressure as needed.
t1 and t2 are starting and ending temperatures. They will be measured in kelvins.
 
we will do the math with 2 balls, one at each range of the allowable psi range. Why these pressures..they represent the range of all possible legal pressures to start the game.
 
starting temperature, 72 F or  295.4K
ending temperature. 50 F or 283.1 K
 
starting pressure (ball one) - 13.5 psi gauge, or 28.2 psi absolute.
starting pressure (ball two) - 12.5 psi gauge, or 27.2 psi absolute.
 
pressure change on ball one can be solved as follows.
 
p2 = p1*t2/t1
 
plugging in the numbers we have p2 = 28.2*283.1/295.4 = 27.0 psi absolute. the gauge pressure would be 27 - 14.7 or 12.3 psi gauge when measured at 50 F.
 
pressure change in ball two can be solved as follows 
 
p2 = p1*t2/t1
 
plugging in the numbers we have p2 = 27.2*283.1/295.4 = 26.1 psi absolute. the gauge pressure would be 26.1 - 14.7 or 11.4 psi gauge when measured at 50 F.
 
that was at game start. If the temp fell further by 1/2 time, the pressures would be lower still. For instance, if the temp dropped by 10 F to
40 F at 1/2 time, the balls would be at 11.8 and 10.9 psi respectfully.
 
 
The nfl states that the Colts balls were in spec @ 1/2 time. Even given the game start temperature of 50F, this is impossible if the balls were tested properly 
with an accurate gauge.

 

 

You made some assumptions, but did you go far enough?  If indeed, room temp was 72, then game balls would be near 72 degrees F at game start.  Why?  The balls are kept inside and then delivered back to the teams sidelines only 10 minutes before game start, in their bag(s).  All the warm balls bunched together in a bag, and outside the bag ambient temp is at 50 degrees.

 

Now we need math on how long it will take all 11 balls bunched together inside of a bag at 72 degrees at game start to all chill down to the 50 degrees outside ambient temp.  It doesn't happen immediately, and maybe not even completely within 90 minutes it takes to reach half time.  I want to see math on that. 

 

Another assumption, you are saying Brady sent them in at 12.5 psi, the ragged edge of minimum. OK, plausible.  But everyone (notably Pats fans) is assuming Luck sent his in at 13.5 psi, the ragged edge of maximum.  Where is it stated Luck likes his game balls inflated to 13.5 psi? Where?  Maybe he also likes the feel at 12.5 and sends his in at that too.  Only one I know who likes it that firm (and even more so but the officials let it back down) is Aaron Rodgers.

 

In the rules I read, it is up to the Home team (Patriots) to supply the officials with the gauge, needle(s) and pump.  So incorrect equipment is on the Pats organization, should that be the case. They are also responsible for having an additional 12 reserve game balls on hand.  So it is very interesting the in the second quarter, the Patriots were supposed to have up to 24 game balls at the ready, and yet officials couldn't find a usable ball and began using balls from the Colts side.

 

I'm sure there is more, but we all are assuming too much already.  NFL has pro investigators and video/audio forensics experts under hire, so when the NFL does come out with the report, it should be full off details that we just do not know right now.  But this is the speculation thread, so it all gets tossed out there, only to be reviewed and tossed around.  Some make sense, others.... ehhhh not so much.

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No infraction has been found. The balls were tested and they were in regulation when the refs released them. At half time, they were underinflated. What infraction was committed?

The infraction was the balls were out of compliance when checked at halftime.   They were below league rules and regulations.  That is a known fact.  

 

The ongoing investigation  is happening because they are trying to determine if this was deliberate and intentional, and trying to determine who or what was responsible.  I have heard that other investigations are also going on, but that is just heresay at this point.  

 

Just because BB held a Presser to say he'd found the reason,  doesn't mean it's accurate or correct.  Thus the ongoing investigation.

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Kudos. :) Totally correct about getting the gas laws brushed up on.

 

(But I think I got it right on the absolute vs the gauge. did some googling and am pretty confident. The first one I came across that looked legit is this

 

http://web.cerritos.edu/cmera/SitePages/Ph101L/labs/GasLaw/GasLaw.htm

 

near the bottom, where they instruct the student to add the atmospheric temp to the gauge temp. ..

 

let me know what you find.)

It's honestly all over the place.  To me, thinks like blood pressure and tire pressure are measured in psig, since it's measuring hte performance of that particular system in the given weather/conditions.  So to me, it makes more sense to measure thep ressure within the ball relative to the surrounding air pressure.  A 12.5 psig football in 50 degrees in Denver at that altitude will have a lower psia than a 12.5 psig football in 50 degrees in Foxboro.  So if we're going to measure this in psia, we not only need to account for the atmospheric pressure at sea level, but also the atmospheric pressure above sea level.  Simply adding the 14.7 psi is just the absolute pressure at 0 feet above sea level (not even including any more or less pressure due to the atmospheric conditions on that particular day).  I'm not sure how much more pressure is added on a given day at the height above sea level which Foxboro is located.  That's getting into far more detail than I think I'm willing to spend time on.  So to me, it's easier to simply just account for all of that by 0 referencing the pressure gauge to the then current atmospheric conditions.  They aren't going to change drastically in a couple of hours and as long as both team's footballs are measured at about the same time, you're not going to get much variance in between the outside pressure of the footballs and the internal pressure.

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It's not time-dependent, it's temperature-dependent. 

 

If the Patriots started off at 12.5 PSI, the lowest allowed pressure, and Indy started at 13.5 PSI, then what the MIT guy was saying is that NE's balls would have dropped below the limit while it's possible that Indy's stayed within it. 

 

It's not my theory so don't assume that's what I'm saying. I just think it's crazy that we can't seem to get a consistent scientific opinion on something like this. It's like the laws of physics don't exist when it comes to footballs. Like I said, I don't know what to believe, or rather who to believe. 

 

 

Agree to agree I guess

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I'm sure there is more, but we all are assuming too much already.  NFL has pro investigators and video/audio forensics experts under hire, so when the NFL does come out with the report, it should be full off details that we just do not know right now.  But this is the speculation thread, so it all gets tossed out there, only to be reviewed and tossed around.  Some make sense, others.... ehhhh not so much.

And you know what the worst part is?  As fun as it might be now to part and parse this, someone is going to end up being wrong.  And that will mean that someone on losing side spent a ton of time researching and doing math and coming up with counterarguments, etc., and it would have all been a waste of time.  At this point, I don't care what happens to the Patriots, I just don't want to find out after spending hours upon hours of looking at this crap and talking about it to have been a waste.  I must be right! lol

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For the Patriots to blame a change in temperature for 15% lower-pressures, requires balls to be inflated with 125-degree air.

 

 

This is exactly what I believe went on and has been going on for years.  They intentionally inflate the footballs with warm moist air knowing that the moisture will condense out as the ball cools increasing the loss of air pressure beyond that which is calculable from Guy Lussac's Law.  The temperature and humidity of the air in the ball is not specified so this is a very simple way to skirt the rule and get illegal footballs into the game with no one knowing and with a plausible out (no specific rule on the properties of the air) if they ever are caught.  I bet very few people in the Patriot organization are privy to the scheme to avoid having it come out if a player goes to another team.

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It's honestly all over the place.  To me, thinks like blood pressure and tire pressure are measured in psig, since it's measuring hte performance of that particular system in the given weather/conditions.  So to me, it makes more sense to measure thep ressure within the ball relative to the surrounding air pressure.  A 12.5 psig football in 50 degrees in Denver at that altitude will have a lower psia than a 12.5 psig football in 50 degrees in Foxboro.  So if we're going to measure this in psia, we not only need to account for the atmospheric pressure at sea level, but also the atmospheric pressure above sea level.  Simply adding the 14.7 psi is just the absolute pressure at 0 feet above sea level (not even including any more or less pressure due to the atmospheric conditions on that particular day).  I'm not sure how much more pressure is added on a given day at the height above sea level which Foxboro is located.  That's getting into far more detail than I think I'm willing to spend time on.  So to me, it's easier to simply just account for all of that by 0 referencing the pressure gauge to the then current atmospheric conditions.  They aren't going to change drastically in a couple of hours and as long as both team's footballs are measured at about the same time, you're not going to get much variance in between the outside pressure of the footballs and the internal pressure.

 

you are correct in that one would adjust for the atmos. pressure at where they are located, and if the test was done in Denver, the 14.7 wouldnt be the proper number. Foxboro is close enough to sea level that 14.7 is pretty close to what is the true number. The formula works on absolute pressure. If we were doing this on a psi of 2000, the 14.7 wouldnt have a great effect. When the atmospheric pressure is 1/2 the total pressure, it makes the difference we see in our calculations.

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you are correct in that one would adjust for the atmos. pressure at where they are located, and if the test was done in Denver, the 14.7 wouldnt be the proper number. Foxboro is close enough to sea level that 14.7 is pretty close to what is the true number. The formula works on absolute pressure. If we were doing this on a psi of 2000, the 14.7 wouldnt have a great effect. When the atmospheric pressure is 1/2 the total pressure, it makes the difference we see in our calculations.

Yeah, but we're talking fractions of psi.  I agree with you that it's close to sea level, but at the same token, there's still going to be an error ratio, and like I said, that's going to be a lot more time and effort than I've already spent to figure out what that difference might be.  It could be fairly negligible given the barometer pressure, but I'm hanging up my science hat for the day.  I'm no expert - obviously.  lol

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you are correct in that one would adjust for the atmos. pressure at where they are located, and if the test was done in Denver, the 14.7 wouldnt be the proper number. Foxboro is close enough to sea level that 14.7 is pretty close to what is the true number. The formula works on absolute pressure. If we were doing this on a psi of 2000, the 14.7 wouldnt have a great effect. When the atmospheric pressure is 1/2 the total pressure, it makes the difference we see in our calculations.

 

 

You and go Pats have been pretty cool  throughout this. Nothing like most of the others.

 

My question to you is where does this attendant figure in with the science that BB so kindly provided us with ? BTW .. the most ridiculous part of that pressor was saying they (BB) found that rubbing the balls increased the PSI by a point. The representative from Wilson BTW is saying that's absurd also.

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You and go Pats have been pretty cool  throughout this. Nothing like most of the others.

 

My question to you is where does this attendant figure in with the science that BB so kindly provided us with ? BTW .. the most ridiculous part of that pressor was saying they (BB) found that rubbing the balls increased the PSI by a point. The representative from Wilson BTW is saying that's absurd also.

 

Thanks. I am  fan of football first, and my favorite team happens to the Patriots. I do have a weakness for a good debate tho :)

 

As for the ball boy and rubbing, I came across this earlier today. I think it explains it better then I can

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/physicist-emailed-us-explain-exactly-143048032.html

 

I did read the wilson article, and I got the sense he and BB were not on the same page on what they were talking about. He was talking about the elasticity of the bladder, and its ability to not lose pressure over time. ie, leaking. What BB was talking about was not leaking, but pressure changes due to temperature changes.

These are two different things altogether. 

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Yeah, but we're talking fractions of psi.  I agree with you that it's close to sea level, but at the same token, there's still going to be an error ratio, and like I said, that's going to be a lot more time and effort than I've already spent to figure out what that difference might be.  It could be fairly negligible given the barometer pressure, but I'm hanging up my science hat for the day.  I'm no expert - obviously.  lol

 

hahah..what, you dont want to discuss the difference in pressure that would be caused by indy filling the balls with dry midwest air, and the pats filling it with wet east coast air?? I hear that can be fascinating

 

lol

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Thanks. I am  fan of football first, and my favorite team happens to the Patriots. I do have a weakness for a good debate tho :)

 

As for the ball boy and rubbing, I came across this earlier today. I think it explains it better then I can

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/physicist-emailed-us-explain-exactly-143048032.html

 

I did read the wilson article, and I got the sense he and BB were not on the same page on what they were talking about. He was talking about the elasticity of the bladder, and its ability to not lose pressure over time. ie, leaking. What BB was talking about was not leaking, but pressure changes due to temperature changes.

These are two different things altogether. 

 

 

And the ball boy removing the balls from the room ? This sounds to be totally against protocol.

 

 How much do you really think thee NFL and public are going to buy into ? If it looks like a duck , walks like a duck and goes... QUACK !!!!!!  One might assume it's a duck.

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And the ball boy removing the balls from the room ? This sounds to be totally against protocol.

 

 How much do you really think thee NFL and public are going to buy into ? If it looks like a duck , walks like a duck and goes... QUACK !!!!!!  One might assume it's a duck.

 

I would reply to that but I just sent my tin foil hat out for cleaning :)

 

If you look @ most of my previous posts, its mostly railed against the press. (They could of done it, I've said that many times).

 

So my response to this.. Both the league and the pats have the security vids. The first thing any reasonable person would of dialed up would be "lets follow the balls". Yet, BB was confident enough to stand at a presser and say what he did, and this leak didnt come out till 5 or 6 days after the league would of had the videos also.

 

Something is quacked alright :)

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I would reply to that but I just sent my tin foil hat out for cleaning :)

 

If you look @ most of my previous posts, its mostly railed against the press. (They could of done it, I've said that many times).

 

So my response to this.. Both the league and the pats have the security vids. The first thing any reasonable person would of dialed up would be "lets follow the balls". Yet, BB was confident enough to stand at a presser and say what he did, and this leak didnt come out till 5 or 6 days after the league would of had the videos also.

 

Something is quacked alright :)

 

 

So you feel this is total nonsense ? There is no proof that the balls were removed from that room ? Interesting. BTW... BB can say what he wants and not be held directly accountable unless he instructed for the balls to be deflated .. which I doubt very much. He has no great risk of making that statement as it's pretty tough o prove he knew it happened. 

 

That , BTW, is not saying your team can get out of this by saying the ball boy did it on his own. Brady will probably do down and the punishment will be a team type thing.

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So you feel this is total nonsense ? There is no proof that the balls were removed from that room ? Interesting. BTW... BB can say what he wants and not be held directly accountable unless he instructed for the balls to be deflated .. which I doubt very much. He has no great risk of making that statement as it's pretty tough o prove he knew it happened. 

 

That , BTW, is not saying your team can get out of this by saying the ball boy did it on his own. Brady will probably do down and the punishment will be a team type thing.

 

I dont know if its nonsense or not. Its another "source" that says 3 things.

 

1. They interviewed the ball boy (well, thats a shocker :) )

2. They have a video of him making a detour (ok, that's pretty bad).

3. They don't know if it means anything. 

 

#3 is the most intriguing. Why would the source specifically include that information? (warning, I just got my tin foil hat back on....is it so they can say, well, it wasnt something important?)

 

and yep, if it was the ball boy in the bathroom with the needle, no way he acted alone.

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They cheated a ball boy did it, even if Andrew likes his ball at 13.5 then lose to pounds of pressure they would be at 11.5  & underweight as well! Bottom line is they cheated Brady likes the ball smaller & I would too! They won't do it again fine them again & let it be over!! Please the have kicked are butt's the last to times we played them and if we don't stop the run better they will do it again next year to!!

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I dont know if its nonsense or not. Its another "source" that says 3 things.

1. They interviewed the ball boy (well, thats a shocker :) )

2. They have a video of him making a detour (ok, that's pretty bad).

3. They don't know if it means anything.

#3 is the most intriguing. Why would the source specifically include that information? (warning, I just got my tin foil hat back on....is it so they can say, well, it wasnt something important?)

and yep, if it was the ball boy in the bathroom with the needle, no way he acted alone.

Why would a lone wolf , rogue ball boy, who is hired by the Patriots , do this on his own ? If he is rogue, why would he have 11 of the 12 balls under inflated the way Brady likes them, when Brady knows nothing, and said nothing to anyone ? Who is he Kreskin ? Why didn't he overinflate 11 out of the 12 balls ? I think we know why. This theory really stretches credibility and all common sense. Are we really to believe some poor, schmoe, ball boy acted alone ?

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Why would a lone wolf , rogue ball boy, who is hired by the Patriots , do this on his own ? If he is rogue, why would he have 11 of the 12 balls under inflated the way Brady likes them, when Brady knows nothing, and said nothing to anyone ? Who is he Kreskin ? Why didn't he overinflate 11 out of the 12 balls ? I think we know why. This theory really stretches credibility and all common sense. Are we really to believe some poor, schmoe, ball boy acted alone ?

 

Um, I wasnt being sarcastic at all on that last part. I agree, if thats what happened, he was told to do it.

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I dont know if its nonsense or not. Its another "source" that says 3 things.

 

1. They interviewed the ball boy (well, thats a shocker :) )

2. They have a video of him making a detour (ok, that's pretty bad).

3. They don't know if it means anything. 

 

#3 is the most intriguing. Why would the source specifically include that information? (warning, I just got my tin foil hat back on....is it so they can say, well, it wasnt something important?)

 

and yep, if it was the ball boy in the bathroom with the needle, no way he acted alone.

 

Is it possible that the NFL confiscated the video tapes and BB didn't have the opportunity to see what they would show ? I think you're not considering he's lied before and he really doesn't have anything to lose here by lying again. There is no way that he instructed the ball boy to deflate the balls. It can't be traced back to him.

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Is it possible that the NFL confiscated the video tapes and BB didn't have the opportunity to see what they would show ? I think you're not considering he's lied before and he really doesn't have anything to lose here by lying again. There is no way that he instructed the ball boy to deflate the balls. It can't be traced back to him.

 

I would be shocked if the security "tapes" were actually tapes. This isnt your mama's spygate :)

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Is it possible that the NFL confiscated the video tapes and BB didn't have the opportunity to see what they would show ? I think you're not considering he's lied before and he really doesn't have anything to lose here by lying again. There is no way that he instructed the ball boy to deflate the balls. It can't be traced back to him.

 

Let me ask you this.

 

I believe it was glazier that also "leaked" it was a sting by the NFL. How do you now reconcile that with his latest leak that the ball boy is a "person of interest". 

 

1 reporter, 2 sources, 2 different stories. 

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So even if digital , couldn't it be the same case for that ? I really don't know .

 

If its digital, its a video file on a hard drive. You simply make a copy of the files, and away the NFL goes. You dont even need to come collect them, they can be sent by email if needed (not very practical, but its possible).

 

Its ~possible~ that they could of confiscated the hard drives, I would think that unlikely, but as always, I dont know.

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Let me ask you this.

 

I believe it was glazier that also "leaked" it was a sting by the NFL. How do you now reconcile that with his latest leak that the ball boy is a "person of interest". 

 

1 reporter, 2 sources, 2 different stories. 

 

 

I don't know what Glazier reported a few days ago but if there is video of a ball boy doing a detour of the footballs into another room before bringing them onto the field , then it's significant. If the ball boy took them from the room they were in to the field then there is no issue. I really have no idea what you are trying to say with the above.

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I don't know what Glazier reported a few days ago but if there is video of a ball boy doing a detour of the footballs into another room before bringing them onto the field , then it's significant. If the ball boy took them from the room they were in to the field then there is no issue. I really have no idea what you are trying to say with the above.

 

The media. They cant get their story straight. First it was 2 lbs pressure, now its closer to one. First it was a sting operation by the league, now its a ball boy. What if the ball boy leak came out last week, and then the media leaked it was a sting today. We would all be now talking about how its GOTTA be the sting, cause its fresh and hot news.

 

The ball boy story would be discarded like yesterdays news....

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