#1 Pick Clenching

[Dustin]

If i'm not mistaken then we clench the # pick with a lose + St. Louis Win. Anyone actually know if this is right?

[Captain Americolt]

I think so. If we lose and st. Louis wins, they will have 3 wins and us zero with three games left. But if we somehow win our last three games and they lose their last 3, who will win the tiebreaker?

[Dustin]

I think so. If we lose and st. Louis wins, they will have 3 wins and us zero with three games left. But if we somehow win our last three games and they lose their last 3, who will win the tiebreaker?

Well we got obliterated against the Saints and they beat them. So I think that is basically the tie-breaker. So yeah if we tie, we get the pick.

[Jason_]

If the Colts were to win the rest of their games and Carolina, Miami, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and St. Louis all lose the rest of their games then all 10 teams finish with a 4-12 record. Colts would pick higher than Carolina, Tampa Bay and Cleveland because they lost to each of these teams. So it would come down to strength of schedule to determine between the Colts, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, Jacksonville and Minnesota. Strength of Schedule, based on my understanding, won't and can't be calculated until the season ends when every team's win-loss record can be analyzed.

Washington, Philly and Miami are each out of the running with one more win or one more Colts loss

Jacksonville is out of the equation with one more win and one more Colts loss

St. Louis and Minnesota are out of the equation with two more wins and one more Colts loss or one more win and two more Colts losses.

Bottom line, I don't think #1 pick can be "locked up" for a minimum of 2 more full weeks of games being played.

As far as I know, Record vs. common opponents is not a determining factor when it comes to draft order. The tie-breakers for draft order are:

1. Head to head record

2. Strength of schedule

3. Coin toss

[Dustin]

Well, we have had the 3rd toughest schedule this year. The only team above us are Carolina #1 and Buffalo #2. Since Buffalo has five wins they're out of the running and Carolina beat us so they are out of the running as well. So it's safe to assume we'll get the #1 pick.

[Jason_]

Well, we have had the 3rd toughest schedule this year. The only team above us are Carolina #1 and Buffalo #2. Since Buffalo has five wins they're out of the running and Carolina beat us so they are out of the running as well. So it's safe to assume we'll get the #1 pick.

The strength of schedule coming into the season was based on the 2010 win-loss records. However, as far as I know, if a tie occurs for the 2012 draft, then the strength of schedule that determines tie-breakers is calculated and determined from the 2011 season. This would be calculated after this season is over so whatever strength of schedule calculations were made coming into this season would not have any bearing on the 2012 draft.

[Dustin]

The strength of schedule coming into the season was based on the 2010 win-loss records. However, as far as I know, if a tie occurs for the 2012 draft, then the strength of schedule that determines tie-breakers is calculated and determined from the 2011 season. This would be calculated after this season is over so whatever strength of schedule calculations were made coming into this season would not have any bearing on the 2012 draft.

Oh yeah. I didn't even think about that. Thanks.