Pats/Denver thread - snow in forecast (merge)

[amfootball]

I remember several seasons when Indy had a "great" passing defense. Teams marched up and down the field over us on the ground,  so the passing numbers were highly skewed. Although we certainly have had good DE's (and still have Mathis), for a lot of years we had no push up the middle so it mitigated our pass rush when it MATTERED against good QB's in the playoffs. Many of our DB's couldn't intercept a football hitting them right in the numbers.

 

It's hard to judge a defense based on just passing or running defense. Teams that are ranked high at both are the truly good defenses. I'm not saying by any stretch that the Pats have a terrible passing defense, just that it may not be all it's cracked up to be. Particularly when some teams have had their way on the ground and the list of QB's they've played are the following "juggernauts":

 

Ryan Tannehill (Up and down)

Matt Cassel (Awful)

Whoever the Raiders have (Awful)

Alex Smith (By far the best on this list and the only remotely good QB. NE got crushed)

Andy Dalton (Awful)

EJ Manuel (Awful)

Geno Smith (Below awful - worst in the league.)

Jay Cutler (Awful)

 

 

That being said, if NE limits the likes of Peyton, RODGAHS, Rivers then we'll have something to talk about.

Valid points. For sure the pass defense has benefited from the fact that the run defense has not been good. But the Pats secondary is the only unit to not have let up a pass of over 40 yards this season which is impressive given the deep ball has been the Achilles heel of this team for years.

 

What I have noticed is the unit is completely different with Browner in there. He brings a physical presence the way Talib did. The whole defense responds to his physical play. Revis of course allows you to play defense in so many different ways because he is just so good on shutting down the best receiver even though at times his play has been inconsistent but I think that has more to do with learning the Pats system than his skills. He has improved as the season has gone along and Bill seems more willing to let him man up now perhaps because Browner is out there.

 

I am worried about the pass rush. We will have to see if the new defensive players the Pats acquired the last couple of weeks can help with that and help the run defense.

[amfootball]

you don't seem to understand the predetermined concept LOL its Denvers year no matter what.

 

explain to me how a team can be that good for 14 years and you dont get suspicious ? Nope, say bye bye to the Pats this year as they lose early in the playoffs.

Pretty sure it was "Denver's year" the last two seasons ...

 

And the Pats are the team that has been in the championship game or SB the last three seasons but don't let facts stand in the face of your hatred ...

[amfootball]

Updated weather forecast. The chance of precipitation is down to 10 percent with Saturday being the messy day. The big thing for Sunday though is the wind. It will be at 28 mph with gusts of up to 40. It is also supposed to be around freezing at game time but with that wind it will feel like zero or below zero. This game is shaping up to have the exact same conditions as last year. Cold and very windy.

[ram29jackson]

Pretty sure it was "Denver's year" the last two seasons ...

 

And the Pats are the team that has been in the championship game or SB the last three seasons but don't let facts stand in the face of your hatred ...

 

what the heck does that have to do with what I said ? you are saying you didn't know and you think it happened naturally.These were all premeditated outcomes to begin with. 14 straight years of success aren't possible unless things are manipulated to go your way.

[Dustin]

Pretty sure it was "Denver's year" the last two seasons ...

 

And the Pats are the team that has been in the championship game or SB the last three seasons but don't let facts stand in the face of your hatred ...

 

He's implying it is all predetermined. They start drinking early in St. Louis I see. 

[B~Town]

Take Denver they will run over the Pats

[amfootball]

what the heck does that have to do with what I said ? you are saying you didn't know and you think it happened naturally.These were all premeditated outcomes to begin with. 14 straight years of success aren't possible unless things are manipulated to go your way.

What?

[amfootball]

He's implying it is all predetermined. They start drinking early in St. Louis I see. 

Oh man. Then why be on a football chat board if he thinks the game is fixed? Leave the rest of us to our blissful "ignorance."

[amfootball]

If the game was really fixed Tebow would have a ring.

[GoPats]

what the heck does that have to do with what I said ? you are saying you didn't know and you think it happened naturally.These were all premeditated outcomes to begin with. 14 straight years of success aren't possible unless things are manipulated to go your way.

 

So if this is what you think, why on earth would you watch or follow the sport? 

[oldunclemark]

Low 40s...20-25 MPH winds....50% chance of rain Sunday in New England

[amfootball]

Low 40s...20-25 MPH winds....50% chance of rain Sunday in New England

We also turn the clocks back on Saturday for day light savings which means it will be close to dark at the time of kick-off and temps near freezing with 20 mph winds and gusts up to 40 mph.

[Blue Horseshoe]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000420498/article/heavy-winds-expected-for-broncospatriots

 

From the article:

"If I did my job the way they do theirs, I'd be here about a week," Belichick said, never afraid to put meteorologists on blast. "Look, I'm not saying I could do it better than them, I'm just saying they're wrong a lot. That's a fact. They are wrong a lot. We all make mistakes. I'm not being critical of them. I'm just saying I don't think you go based on that."

[amfootball]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000420498/article/heavy-winds-expected-for-broncospatriots

 

From the article:

"If I did my job the way they do theirs, I'd be here about a week," Belichick said, never afraid to put meteorologists on blast. "Look, I'm not saying I could do it better than them, I'm just saying they're wrong a lot. That's a fact. They are wrong a lot. We all make mistakes. I'm not being critical of them. I'm just saying I don't think you go based on that."

Ha. That is great. What a quote from Bill. We all feel the same but it is hard to predict Boston weather.

[LordHelpOurColts]

Hopefully it'll be a high scoring affair and not some kind of defensive stalemate

[JerodMayo51]

Just rewatched their game from last year in the playoffs.  Brady had all day to throw and their offense still did nothing till garbage time.  I thought Brady had to be under pressure for most of the game since they didn't score much, but that o-line manhandled the Broncos D-line.  I would think the Broncos will get significantly more pressure on Brady this time around. The coverage guys have improved across the board for the Broncos too.  It will all come down to Gronk imo.  If Marshall/Irving/Ward can do a good job on Gronk, Pats lose by at least 10.  If Gronk is allowed to roam free, it will be a tight game.

 

There are multiple factors at play in the passing game.. Yes, your offensive line giving you time is the number one thing, but you also need receivers to get open.

 

Thats where the term "coverage sack" comes from.. because the offensive line did their job, but the receivers couldn't get open so the QB had nowhere to throw the ball and has to either get rid of it or take a sack.

 

Last year, Brady had absolutely no one to throw the ball to, nobody could get any separation even from total JAG DBs on other teams, so even when the offensive line gave him some time they would still struggle because they had no talent to speak of at the skill positions.

[JerodMayo51]

Just for the record, i am a Peyton Manning fan.

 

Denver defense is significantly better than last year. Denver offense is significantly better too. They don't have the soft butterfinger Decker. Emmanuel Sanders will be the X factor. No one will be able to cover him. Welker will be fired up to redeem.

 

Pats pass defense?. Are you judging them based on their performance against Bears, Raiders and Jets?.

 

The Bears offensive skill positions are no joke...   Marshall, Jeffrey, Bennett and Forte?  Other than Gronk, nobody from the Patriots could even be a starter on the bears offense.

 

The same goes for Denver, there were some talking heads the other day saying that not a single skill position from the Patriots would be a starter on the Broncos.. They even threw Gronkowski into that in regards to Julius Thomas, which I don't agree with, but there are some people that feel Julius Thomas is better..  That is how ridiculously loaded the Broncos offense is.. and their defense is loaded with talent as well. 

 

I would LOVE to see the Patriots sign Terrance Knighton from the Broncos in free agency next year.. that would make my day! Welker, J Thomas, D Thomas, Knighton, Harris and a few others are all going to be free agents next year... out of all of them, id want Knighton

[JerodMayo51]

All season they've been very good. They match up well against Denver. Revis on Thomas. Browner on the other Thomas. The smaller corners on Sanders and Welker. They won't have to defend for long too with the weather making throws downfield difficult. I agree Denver has a better (team) this year but NE beat them last year at home....Gronk is healthier than he has ever been. Lafell looks like the deep threat they have been missing...their new TE is starting to fit into this offense....and we haven't even mentioned the uncoverable Edelman....NE has improved too. I think its a back and forth game....and very physical. I think the odds makers are on crack....that game is a push.

 

The one thing that is really going to hurt the Patriots is that Chandler Jones is out..   Jerod Mayo being out is devastating as well, but not as much as your premiere pass rusher when going against a hall of fame QB and a high powered passing attack.

 

Should be a good game though, the Pats always find ways to win and Brady is better than any QB to ever play this game so I like our chances!

[JerodMayo51]

I hope NE doesnt get carried away after their performance with Bears. That game is truly not how we measure NE.

 

Bears really were bad in all phases.

 

You had no problem getting carried away when they lost to KC by a lot...  So when the Pats lose, you can use that as a "true" measure of how good NE is, but when they completely stomp a team into the ground that can't be part of the equation when determining how good they are...

 

Ok, got it....  I'm just trying to keep up here with all of this logic... all year long we heard about how horrible they were because they lost to team X, then how they won to team Y but they only won by X points... then they stomp on some teams like the Bengals that everyone said would be the "true" measuring stick, and after that game people made up more excuses as to why those weren't an accurate reflection of the Pats talent level, etc etc etc,,, blah blah blah...

  If the Pats win, they'll be the #1 seed in the AFC and people will still be finding excuses as to why they "just aren't that good"

 

The Broncos definitely have WAY more talent on their roster, but this is a Tom Brady lead team... the greatest QB in the history of the National Football League...  and they always have a chance to beat anyone! 

 

 

GUESS WE'LL SEE THIS SUNDAY!

[JerodMayo51]

I remember several seasons when Indy had a "great" passing defense. Teams marched up and down the field over us on the ground,  so the passing numbers were highly skewed. Although we certainly have had good DE's (and still have Mathis), for a lot of years we had no push up the middle so it mitigated our pass rush when it MATTERED against good QB's in the playoffs. Many of our DB's couldn't intercept a football hitting them right in the numbers.

 

It's hard to judge a defense based on just passing or running defense. Teams that are ranked high at both are the truly good defenses. I'm not saying by any stretch that the Pats have a terrible passing defense, just that it may not be all it's cracked up to be. Particularly when some teams have had their way on the ground and the list of QB's they've played are the following "juggernauts":

 

Ryan Tannehill (Up and down)

Matt Cassel (Awful)

Whoever the Raiders have (Awful)

Alex Smith (By far the best on this list and the only remotely good QB. NE got crushed)

Andy Dalton (Awful)

EJ Manuel (Awful)

Geno Smith (Below awful - worst in the league.)

Jay Cutler (Awful)

 

 

That being said, if NE limits the likes of Peyton, RODGAHS, Rivers then we'll have something to talk about.

 

Thats a fair point, and I believe is also why Denver is considered the #1 rushing defense... because their offense is so high powered and gets leads so early in the game that teams have to play catch up and completely abandon the running game by half time.. thus the lower yards per game. That's how defenses are measured in this league by the number of yards they allow, which is HIGHLY flawed because it completely removes situations, context and a whole slew of other metrics out of the equation.

[JerodMayo51]

Denver does need this win because they still have road games at Cincy, SD and KC

...and explain who's going to beat the Pats in the playoffs other than Denver..

 

Denver has only played 2 road games.. so they have 6 more counting this Pats game.. its very plausible that they could lose 1 or 2 of those.   Denver's schedule has been a cake walk thus far.. I still think they're the most talented team in the league right now, but they've been beating up on helpless little teams void of any real talent all year long..

 

The Jets made them punt like 8 times in a row and it was a 7 point game in the 4th quarter until Geno Turnover Smith threw a pick 6...  The Broncos can be had just like anybody else.. and as the competition they face starts to get better and better as the second half of the season unfolds, i wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a game or two..

 

I also wouldn't be shocked to see them have a major injury or two... Denver has probably been the luckiest team in the league this year as far as health is concerned... They're stacked at every starting position across the board but their depth is seriously questionable.. they just haven't had any injuries yet to test that depth...  Good for them.. but can they continue to count on that luck to carry them the rest of the way?   We shall see!

[jvan1973]

Denver has only played 2 road games.. so they have 6 more counting this Pats game.. its very plausible that they could lose 1 or 2 of those. Denver's schedule has been a cake walk thus far.. I still think they're the most talented team in the league right now, but they've been beating up on helpless little teams void of any real talent all year long..

The Jets made them punt like 8 times in a row and it was a 7 point game in the 4th quarter until Geno Turnover Smith threw a pick 6... The Broncos can be had just like anybody else.. and as the competition they face starts to get better and better as the second half of the season unfolds, i wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a game or two..

I also wouldn't be shocked to see them have a major injury or two... Denver has probably been the luckiest team in the league this year as far as health is concerned... They're stacked at every starting position across the board but their depth is seriously questionable.. they just haven't had any injuries yet to test that depth... Good for them.. but can they continue to count on that luck to carry them the rest of the way? We shall see!

Denver has played the toughest schedule of anyone. Not sure how you could argue otherwise

[Moose Of Woe]

Thats a fair point, and I believe is also why Denver is considered the #1 rushing defense... because their offense is so high powered and gets leads so early in the game that teams have to play catch up and completely abandon the running game by half time.. thus the lower yards per game. That's how defenses are measured in this league by the number of yards they allow, which is HIGHLY flawed because it completely removes situations, context and a whole slew of other metrics out of the equation.

Yup yup. Truth be told I'm not sold on Denver's passing defense being all that, either. I think it's fair to say the run defense has been great, and the pass defense has been above average. They've let up some baaaaaaaad plays, but they've also played some good QB's.

 

Also Gates was beating them like a drum all night and they couldn't stop him. I expect Gronk will have a field day. If NE still had two great TE's Denver would be in serious trouble.

[Moose Of Woe]

Denver's schedule has been a cake walk thus far..

They have, quite literally, had the toughest schedule in the league.

 

Indy (Will win division)

K.C (Will probably be a wild card)

SEA (Lost to the defending champions who throttled them in Feb in OT)

ARZ (One loss on the season, and that was a throttling by Denver)

Jets (Yawn)

49'ers (Pretty darn good)

Chargers (Would win the division if Denver weren't ridiculous)

 

The only weeks they've had a cakewalk were the Jets and the bye.

 

If you want cakewalk, look at that list of teams I just posted for the Pats. Apart from CIN which is hampered by their QB, they really haven't beat anyone. The CIN game was an impressive win, though. The team is actually pretty talented, but Dalton just.....I don't know.

[Shane Bond]

The Bears offensive skill positions are no joke...   Marshall, Jeffrey, Bennett and Forte?  Other than Gronk, nobody from the Patriots could even be a starter on the bears offense.

 

The same goes for Denver, there were some talking heads the other day saying that not a single skill position from the Patriots would be a starter on the Broncos.. They even threw Gronkowski into that in regards to Julius Thomas, which I don't agree with, but there are some people that feel Julius Thomas is better..  That is how ridiculously loaded the Broncos offense is.. and their defense is loaded with talent as well. 

 

I would LOVE to see the Patriots sign Terrance Knighton from the Broncos in free agency next year.. that would make my day! Welker, J Thomas, D Thomas, Knighton, Harris and a few others are all going to be free agents next year... out of all of them, id want Knighton

Their QB is.

[Shane Bond]

 Denver's schedule has been a cake walk thus far.

What are you smoking?. Send me some.

[oldunclemark]

Sunday at 4 p.m....in New England..if the rain stops

..still low 40s and 20 MPH winds...

..not quite as 'brisk' as last year's game but close..

[Blue Horseshoe]

Denver has played the toughest schedule of anyone. Not sure how you could argue otherwise

 

Denver's schedule is a "cake walk" (combined 29-23 record) while New England was playing the mighty Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Jets, and Bears (combined 24-35-1 record)

[oldunclemark]

Denver has only played 2 road games.. so they have 6 more counting this Pats game.. its very plausible that they could lose 1 or 2 of those.   Denver's schedule has been a cake walk thus far.. I still think they're the most talented team in the league right now, but they've been beating up on helpless little teams void of any real talent all year long..

 

The Jets made them punt like 8 times in a row and it was a 7 point game in the 4th quarter until Geno Turnover Smith threw a pick 6...  The Broncos can be had just like anybody else.. and as the competition they face starts to get better and better as the second half of the season unfolds, i wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a game or two..

 

I also wouldn't be shocked to see them have a major injury or two... Denver has probably been the luckiest team in the league this year as far as health is concerned... They're stacked at every starting position across the board but their depth is seriously questionable.. they just haven't had any injuries yet to test that depth...  Good for them.. but can they continue to count on that luck to carry them the rest of the way?   We shall see!

Lucky or deep. A good discussion. Cake walk is probably an overstatement, isn't it? IN a league with Oakland, Tennessee and Jacksonville and Denver's top RB and LB have been out virtually all season..and their kicker had to be let go but you don't notice because they had fill ins. Hard to predict injuries..and the teams that are lucky (facing injured teams like SF and SD) are usually the winners..

But you could make a quality arguement that Denver is facing an injury depleted defense, (Mayo and C. Jones) Sunday

..but the reason I think this is a big game has to do with Indy and SD, along with NE

Broncos still have to play at SD, at KC and at Cincy as you say.

No big thing if they have a 2-game lead like they do now...but if the lead is one game...the Broncos then must win at SD to win the division (assuming the Chargers start winning). Cincy wont be involved in any tie breakers because of the tie game...but they could catch Denver in that week 15 game if the Bengals sweep remaining division games and Denver loses at NE..

Colts schedule gets softer so they'll start winning again (I hope) ...again no problem for Denver if the Colts stay 2 games back..after this weekend

A Denver win at NE effectively puts the Pats 3 games back for the top seed.....and (with games coming up at Oakland and St. Louis) tees them up to pull away from everybody, not just NE (who faces a very tough November schdeule) before Thanskgiving../

This game can win the No.1 seed in the AFC for Denver.

[oldunclemark]

Denver's schedule is a "cake walk" (combined 29-23 record) while New England was playing the mighty Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Jets, and Bears (combined 24-35-1 record)

Those Bears are really scary, too!

[Moose Of Woe]

Denver's schedule is a "cake walk" (combined 29-23 record) while New England was playing the mighty Dolphins, Vikings, Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Jets, and Bears (combined 24-35-1 record)

And lost to the only two teams in that list without considerable issues at QB.

 

Oh, and Orange Julius is fantastic. However anyone who thinks he's better than a healthy Gronk is on crack. Gronk is, hands down, the best TE in football.

[Ryan Pelley]

Thats a fair point, and I believe is also why Denver is considered the #1 rushing defense... because their offense is so high powered and gets leads so early in the game that teams have to play catch up and completely abandon the running game by half time.. thus the lower yards per game. That's how defenses are measured in this league by the number of yards they allow, which is HIGHLY flawed because it completely removes situations, context and a whole slew of other metrics out of the equation.

That's a fair point to make, because through 7 games, teams have ran against Denver only 149 times, lowest in the NFL.

 

However, they're giving up only 3.4 yards per carry, 5th best in the NFL, which I think is a more accurate statistic when grading defenses.

 

Denver hasn't been eaten up on the ground in close games. Versus Seattle, their running backs ran 28 times for 89 yards. Versus the Jets, who came into the game with I believe the 5th best rushing offense, were absolutely shut down in a close game. From what I've seen from them, they're pretty darn tough up front.

[Yehoodi]

They have, quite literally, had the toughest schedule in the league.

 

Indy (Will win division)

K.C (Will probably be a wild card)

SEA (Lost to the defending champions who throttled them in Feb in OT)

ARZ (One loss on the season, and that was a throttling by Denver)

Jets (Yawn)

49'ers (Pretty darn good)

Chargers (Would win the division if Denver weren't ridiculous)

 

The only weeks they've had a cakewalk were the Jets and the bye.

 

If you want cakewalk, look at that list of teams I just posted for the Pats. Apart from CIN which is hampered by their QB, they really haven't beat anyone. The CIN game was an impressive win, though. The team is actually pretty talented, but Dalton just.....I don't know.

 

I would not say that the Denver's schedule was a cake walk like some have mentioned  . . . but on the other hand it is not as tough as the overall records of their opponents either . . . the key to the games is not who you play but when you play them . . . for the most part the teams that they have played have been injured  . . .

 

if I recall correctly the KC game, Charles was out for most of the game, the Ariz game that team played with its 3rd string QB, both SD and SF has significant losses on the D side of the ball and so on . . . so yes they have played teams who have a solid record over the coarse of the year, but when they played them the teams were not a true representative of their records . . .

 

plus they have played 6 home games . . .

 

Denver should continue to do well and can continue to prove their medal this year . . . they do have road games against NE, SD, KC, CINN . . . we see how things pan out . . .

[teganslaw]

It's snowing in New England right now, and there might be wind gusts up to 40 mph. It seems like the weather will have an effect on the game. I don't know how the field will look this afternoon; most likely they will be prepared by game time. I plan on watching, will be a good match up.

[T Y Goodbye]

It's snowing in New England right now, and there might be wind gusts up to 40 mph. It seems like the weather will have an effect on the game. I don't know how the field will look this afternoon; most likely they will be prepared by game time. I plan on watching, will be a good match up.

 

Its gonna be bad, especially if the wind increases to 35-40..

 

This is what it looks like right now..8:30 Pacific time..

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24779968/broncos-patriots-snowing-heavily-in-foxborough-wind-gusts-to-be-40-mph

[Moose Of Woe]

Should clear up by game time - looks like wind will be the biggest factor.

[Colts_Fan12]

Why are 99% of the patriots tough games every year late in the season and at home??

[Fx Stryker]

Not worried about the weather. New England has to play in it too.

 

This isn't the old New England giant that feasted on the snow. They're offensive heavy too.

[No 1 Manning Fan]

I looks like it's gonna be an old fashioned smash mouth, run it down the other teams throat type of game. If the wind is 40 mph, there isn't going to be a lot of passing yardage to be had, unless it's a lot of short passes and screens.

[oldunclemark]

If we're playing in the snow..I like the team with Rob Gronkowksi