Herm Edwards: I'd Draft Luck And Trade Peyton

[CR91]

But we need a corner....a safety...a LB and a tackle...

..and I believe that Manning will be back (we're getting indications) this year..

..I dont think we can afford to draft a player who, in the best case scenario, will not play next year

you do know he would be making the same amount of money collins was making

[dn4192]

But we need a corner....a safety...a LB and a tackle...

..and I believe that Manning will be back (we're getting indications) this year..

..I dont think we can afford to draft a player who, in the best case scenario, will not play next year

Lets say we use all 6 picks on defense and Peyton comes back and plays next year, this team is still not a top 3-4 team in the AFC with those moves. We have to begin to look long term and taking the next 2-3 years to rebuild and strength this team. Thus you get your QB and some pieces on D in this draft and continue to build in the next draft.

[CR91]

It's only complex from the perspective that more responsibility and burden is placed on the QB (rather than the OC) making not only the right playcall but also the right pre-snap read of the defense. Most Qbs get the play call from the OC and they have to read the defense to see which receiver is the likely target to be open. They're not trying to determine what play to call.

If the Colts coaches/FO continue to think that other QBs can do the same thing Peyton does at the line then that just furthers the argument that they need to go and bring in coaches who realize that most QBs are not going to be able to do the things at the LOS that Peyton does.

Therefore, if you simplify what the QB has to do at the LOS and put more of the burden on the OC, where most teams place that burden, then no the Colts offense is not all that complex.

well we are simplifying it for painters and it still hasnt resulted in a win and you cant just blame the defense for our losses because it offense is equally the blame. apparently the only win for us to win is to give the qb complete control of the offense

[Jason_]

You do know we have more then just 1 pick in the draft....

You do know there is more than just 1 QB in the draft....

What if Peyton brings you more via a trade then the #1 pick? I mean according to some here Peyton is da man, so maybe Dallas and JJ who has money would hand over a boat load for Peyton with the thought he he gets us to the SB the next 2-3 seasons and I am a win now type of guy and then we begin the rebuild with Luck.

Ok this has to be the dumbest thing you have ever said, and that's saying a lot.

[oldunclemark]

not my point. why draft superstar defensive players when your not gonna fully use their talents and make them play soft

You draft superstar defensive players so you have them on your team...

////then you adjust your defense to their talents....it will work..

[oldunclemark]

Lets say we use all 6 picks on defense and Peyton comes back and plays next year, this team is still not a top 3-4 team in the AFC with those moves. We have to begin to look long term and taking the next 2-3 years to rebuild and strength this team. Thus you get your QB and some pieces on D in this draft and continue to build in the next draft.

If we draft six defensive players (and we'll have more than six picks if we trade out '1' for two '1s'...)

we can reasonably assume we'd be in the playoffs because we were there for a decade without all that good young blood. right?

.

I do not want to look long term. We have a solid veteran core (although 0-7 shows the apple might be a little brown).

I want to make the postseason in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 before the old country boy rides off into the sunset.....

To do that..we need those 6 defensive All-Americans you spoke of..

[dn4192]

You do know there is more than just 1 QB in the draft....

Ok this has to be the dumbest thing you have ever said, and that's saying a lot.

Yes there are other QB's in the draft, but are any of them better then Luck. Also is there any defensive player in the upcoming draft more talented then Luck. I mean if Su was avaialble in this draft I would take him over Luck, because he is a franchise player, but I don't see any defensive player on that level in this draft.

Also why is it crazy to consider trading Peyton if he would bring you more in return? Isn't it the idea to improve your team long term and Peyton has what..maybe 2-3 seasons left?

[dn4192]

If we draft six defensive players (and we'll have more than six picks if we trade out '1' for two '1s'...)

we can reasonably assume we'd be in the playoffs because we were there for a decade without all that good young blood. right?

.

I do not want to look long term. We have a solid veteran core (although 0-7 shows the apple might be a little brown).

I want to make the postseason in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 before the old country boy rides off into the sunset.....

To do that..we need those 6 defensive All-Americans you spoke of..

How many teams draft 6 All americans in a draft, let alone get 6 defensive ones in 1 draft. In the upcoming draft you hope that 2-3 of your players turn into great NFL players and the other 2-3 are good role players at best.

[oldunclemark]

....

How many teams draft 6 All americans in a draft, let alone get 6 defensive ones in 1 draft. In the upcoming draft you hope that 2-3 of your players turn into great NFL players and the other 2-3 are good role players at best.

Most drafted players made some all-american team...If we had six picks in the first 4 rounds..they'd probably be Al-Americans....

Dont get hung up on what's an all-american and who isnt..

Can you imagine a realistic scenario that has us in the post-season next year without Peyton Manning..

..or with Manning and the defensive personell we have now with only one or two changes?

I cant

[Razgriz18]

Yes there are other QB's in the draft, but are any of them better then Luck. Also is there any defensive player in the upcoming draft more talented then Luck. I mean if Su was avaialble in this draft I would take him over Luck, because he is a franchise player, but I don't see any defensive player on that level in this draft.

Also why is it crazy to consider trading Peyton if he would bring you more in return? Isn't it the idea to improve your team long term and Peyton has what..maybe 2-3 seasons left?

As I have said other times to this "2-3" years left stuff... it is too soon to tell. Manning may be fantastic for 4-5 more years, and Luck may flame out... Too soon to tell. How about some practice reps first?

[dn4192]

....

Most drafted players made some all-american team...If we had six picks in the first 4 rounds..they'd probably be Al-Americans....

Dont get hung up on what's an all-american and who isnt..

Can you imagine a realistic scenario that has us in the post-season next year without Peyton Manning..

..or with Manning and the defensive personell we have now with only one or two changes?

I cant

I don't see us in teh playoff next year no matter what. The change over is going to take a season or two. Sure given the division we are in we might sneek in next year, be we won't be a true powerhouse. It is going to take a couple of drafts, a switch in defensive philosophy and a few key additions. I am looking long term not this season or even next. I am willing to suffer through a couple of bad seasons if it means we can have another run of 7-8 or 9 seasons where we are a top 3 team in all of the NFL.

[oldunclemark]

As I have said other times to this "2-3" years left stuff... it is too soon to tell. Manning may be fantastic for 4-5 more years, and Luck may flame out... Too soon to tell. How about some practice reps first?

Listen to RAZ

[dn4192]

As I have said other times to this "2-3" years left stuff... it is too soon to tell. Manning may be fantastic for 4-5 more years, and Luck may flame out... Too soon to tell. How about some practice reps first?

Really? How many great QB's in teh NFL have their been at age 36, 37, 38, 39 or 40 years old? Really over the entire NFL history how many? And then add to that a very serious injury at his later stages of his career and the inability to be a mobile QB. You are asking alot out of even Peyton.

[Jason_]

Yes there are other QB's in the draft, but are any of them better then Luck.

I can't say better but I can say equal to or very close to it...but then again I'm not sure why you're even asking because we already know you don't care what Joe Fan thinks. We also know, however, that

I really don't follow college football that much. I know of Luck

so if there were a QB with equal talent then you would certainly not be the one to know about it.

Also is there any defensive player in the upcoming draft more talented then Luck. I mean if Su was avaialble in this draft I would take him over Luck, because he is a franchise player, but I don't see any defensive player on that level in this draft.

No one said that any one player was worth the #1 overall pick, but there are several players in rounds 1-3 that could significantly help our defense both now and for the future. And we also know that:

The first pick is the elephant in the room. If they have the number 1 pick do they take Luck or trade it for multiple picks? I would hope they would take Luck, but I also won't go crazy if they trade it for a couple other picks.

[oldunclemark]

I don't see us in teh playoff next year no matter what. The change over is going to take a season or two. Sure given the division we are in we might sneek in next year, be we won't be a true powerhouse. It is going to take a couple of drafts, a switch in defensive philosophy and a few key additions. I am looking long term not this season or even next. I am willing to suffer through a couple of bad seasons if it means we can have another run of 7-8 or 9 seasons where we are a top 3 team in all of the NFL.

That's the crux of our difference, then...DN

I see us in the playoffs with the 2010 Manning, secondary help...an extra young tackle and linebacker..

If you see our 2012 and 2013 situations as hopeless..then of course..you'd be prudent to ashcan Manning and rebuild.

I see enough healthy vets left to make the playoffs next year if we can cover better in the secondary and

get a stronger rotation in the lines..

I like out O-Line for next season...we juts didnt see the necomers this year..

and our receivers are still good..

Addai, Carter and my man Brown are capable backs...and our kickers are top flight

With Manning back and healthly....we're 12-4, 11-5...and knocking on the door for NOLA

[oldunclemark]

Really? How many great QB's in teh NFL have their been at age 36, 37, 38, 39 or 40 years old? Really over the entire NFL history how many? And then add to that a very serious injury at his later stages of his career and the inability to be a mobile QB. You are asking alot out of even Peyton.

Farve....Montana...Marino,, Elway....Fran....There's been some..

..and this isnt an arm or a knee. Either he's healthy or he's not.

He's not likely to be limited..Its not that kind of injury.....He either can play or not at all.

[Jason_]

Personally, I'd take the "next Andrew Rodgers, Brian Urlacher, and Derelle Revis" over the "next Peyton Manning". 3 pro bowlers > 1 pro bowler.

[dn4192]

I can't say better but I can say equal to or very close to it...but then again I'm not sure why you're even asking because we already know you don't care what Joe Fan thinks. We also know, however, that so if there were a QB with equal talent then you would certainly not be the one to know about it.

No one said that any one player was worth the #1 overall pick, but there are several players in rounds 1-3 that could significantly help our defense both now and for the future. And we also know that:

I don't follow college football that much, and I do know there are about 3-4 QB's coming out in the upcoming draft all having different degrees of talent and question marks. However, I have not heard 1 expert or read anywhere on line via scouting reports that says that any of the QB's coming out have a better NFL upside the Andrew Luck. I have also not read or seen anything on a dominate defensive player coming out in the upcoming draft whose talents would have a greater impact on an NFL team over what Andrew Luck would bring.

Weather we want to admit it or not, Peyton Mannings career is in the twilight with maybe a couple seasons of competitive football left in him. If this was say 2004 or 5 or even 2006 I say you pass on Luck, but it's not and to pass on a player so highly rated to take a lesser player with that first pick is just unsound football in my case. There is no other position player in the game more important then the QB position.

[dn4192]

Farve....Montana...Marino,, Elway....Fran....There's been some..

..and this isnt an arm or a knee. Either he's healthy or he's not.

He's not likely to be limited..Its not that kind of injury.....He either can play or not at all.

Of those listed, Farve had one good season in Minn and that was about it, Montana did nothing in KC, Marino was a shell of himself at those ages due to bad knees. Elway is the exception, but he also had an incredible RB and offense around him and a pretty decent D at those ages.

[oldunclemark]

Personally, I'd take the "next Andrew Rodgers, Brian Urlacher, and Derelle Revis" over the "next Peyton Manning". 3 pro bowlers > 1 pro bowler.

Especially the next Revis....

we need an 'island' of coverage...

'

....and not 'Fantasy Island' coverage..like we have now... :duh:

[oldunclemark]

Of those listed, Farve had one good season in Minn and that was about it, Montana did nothing in KC, Marino was a shell of himself at those ages due to bad knees. Elway is the exception, but he also had an incredible RB and offense around him and a pretty decent D at those ages.

Marino threw for almost 4,000 yards when he was 36

..and led his team to the playoffs when he was 37..

I'll take it....and Peyton would, too

[presto123]

I think basically what he is saying is that Peyton has already won the only SB he will win. With our team I tend to agree with this. Chances are he will not win another one. At least here. So he is saying draft our future for the next 10-15 years plus get a boatload of picks for Peyton to use on defense or whatever else. Kind of makes a little sense if you think about it. You would be taking a heck of a chance and would probably alienate some of the fan base but if it paid off you would be set for a long time theoretically. (if Luck turns out to live up to his potential) Not saying I totally agree with his point but I can see where he is coming from.

[Jason_]

Of those listed, Farve had one good season in Minn and that was about it, Montana did nothing in KC, Marino was a shell of himself at those ages due to bad knees. Elway is the exception, but he also had an incredible RB and offense around him and a pretty decent D at those ages.

Yeah, that's kind of the point. Trade Luck, extra picks, improve OL and defense around Manning.

ps. Montana led KC to the playoffs and past the first round and Manning's knees are not chronically injured like Marino's were. Warren Moon is another you could add to the list. His play didn't begin to drop until after he passed 40.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Jason

[oldunclemark]

Of those listed, Farve had one good season in Minn and that was about it, Montana did nothing in KC, Marino was a shell of himself at those ages due to bad knees. Elway is the exception, but he also had an incredible RB and offense around him and a pretty decent D at those ages.

Farve threw for 4,100 yards and 28 TDs with Green Bay when he was 37...

so , the numbers show that the greats stay great into their late 30s..

[Jason_]

Farve threw for 4,100 yards and 28 TDs with Green Bay when he was 37...

so , the numbers show that the greats stay great into their late 30s..

Moon threw 4,200+ and 33 TD's at 39.

Just adding to your point.

[oldunclemark]

I think basically what he is saying is that Peyton has already won the only SB he will win. With our team I tend to agree with this. Chances are he will not win another one. At least here. So he is saying draft our future for the next 10-15 years plus get a boatload of picks for Peyton to use on defense or whatever else. Kind of makes a little sense if you think about it. You would be taking a heck of a chance and would probably alienate some of the fan base but if it paid off you would be set for a long time theoretically. (if Luck turns out to live up to his potential) Not saying I totally agree with his point but I can see where he is coming from.

I dont think you operate a team with the base assumption that the Hall-of-Fame QB we have is 'has won the only SB he will win' and rebuild when he's 35..

The QB slot is tough to fill..

Is Luck Johnny Unitas or Tony Romo ..we dont know.

WE DO KNOW that Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning

[dn4192]

I dont think you operate a team with the base assumption that the Hall-of-Fame QB we have is 'has won the only SB he will win' and rebuild when he's 35..

The QB slot is tough to fill..

Is Luck Johnny Unitas or Tony Romo ..we dont know.

WE DO KNOW that Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning

We don't know that...we won't know what we have in Peyton until he suits up and plays and gets hit. He could get blindsided on a blitz in one game and bam down he goes to never get up due to this injury. We know what Peyton could do, we don't know what he will do at this point.

[oldunclemark]

We don't know that...we won't know what we have in Peyton until he suits up and plays and gets hit. He could get blindsided on a blitz in one game and bam down he goes to never get up due to this injury. We know what Peyton could do, we don't know what he will do at this point.

That's why we need him to suit up in December....and no one close to the situation says he's not going to play again...

If he collapses and retires the first time he gets hit....then we know we'r e out of luck and we go get some more

The key is: Not to let him get blindsided by a blitz. The QB is the one guy we can protect..

He doesnt get hit much and we just drafted some big guys to keep him standing

//I dont want to give up on next year for a hit that may not occur

That's just too much doomsday thinking..in my opinion..

I know if he's healthy....there's a reasonable expectation of what he can do...and its good..

There is no reasonable expectation of what Andrew Luck can do because he might still be at Stanford in 2012...

[Betty27_1]

We don't know that...we won't know what we have in Peyton until he suits up and plays and gets hit. He could get blindsided on a blitz in one game and bam down he goes to never get up due to this injury. We know what Peyton could do, we don't know what he will do at this point.

And he could get blindsided and be out due to an injury unrelated to his neck as well. Every single NFL player takes risks when they step out on that field. Maybe the Pats should of traded Brady because he could of injured his other knee or re-injured the knee he injured that caused him to lose an entire season.

Then again, Luck could be blindsided as well in his first NFL game and either lose the entire season or lose his whole career.

No NFL team knows how their star player is going to perform when they come back from major surgery. But to trade Peyton because he may get hurt, to me, is not the way to go.

[WSO]

There are a lot of QB's who still played at a high level in their late 30s. . .cmon you have to be kidding if you think Manning is going to suddenly decline at 35.

Polian has said many times he is looking good and improving. Most recently he said he may be able to start jogging.

[Jason_]

That's why we need him to suit up in December....

*sits and waits patiently for dn's tantrum about how this is the one mistake that FO is making...keeping Manning off IR. Because he knows if Manning plays then the odds of winning go up and therefore the odds of #1 pick and Luck go down*

[-JJ-]

Because you don't want to see Peyton ride off into the sunset and play for another team? If you care about the team over player, then getting Luck, getting him in and playing and addressing your QB needs for the next decade plus. I don't hear to many GB fans being upset now that GB traded Farve...

Many GB fans were mad in seeing Farve leave. Same with NE when Bledsoe got shipped out. Fans get over it though. If the team wins they don't care who's playing:)

[oldunclemark]

I'd rather have Manning..who could get hurt again..but has been good forever....

..as opposed to ANY college QB..who could get hurt or who could simply be bad forever

[ruksak]

Rule #1 in NFL football;

You never,ever, under any circumstances do you ever....trade number 18. EVER! Don't do it, ever.

[Larry Horseman]

I think Herm is right. If we draft Luck, we should trade Manning. I've said this in a few other threads before. At most, Manning should be on the roster for one more season if we draft Luck. If Manning is healthy, and we will know by the time the draft roles around, I personally do not believe we should draft Luck, but if we do, the best thing the franchise can do is get rid of Peyton and let Luck take the reigns asap.

Also, regardless of if the Colts offensive is simple or complex (it's actually a simple offense ran in a very complex way because of how all 11 offensive players must read defenses on the fly), we should and will---at least I hope---change our offense for whoever the QB is who follows Manning. This is one reason I'm against drafting Luck and sitting him behind Peyton for 3 or 4 years. The team and offense will be completely different. Peyton, Moore, and Christensen created an offense catered to Peyton's strengths, which will never be replicated by another QB. If it was that easy to do, then a bunch of other teams would be running an offense like the Colts, but they aren't. Point is, if we do draft Luck, we will need to cater the offense to his strengths, which will be different than Peyton's. Sure, Luck is good at reading defenses, but so are Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc., and they do not run their offenses like the Colts with Manning behind center. Hence, unless our coaching staff and front office are complete * (which I'm beginning to wonder), we will completely overhaul our offensive system for the next QB.

[dn4192]

Rule #1 in NFL football;

You never,ever, under any circumstances do you ever....trade number 18. EVER! Don't do it, ever.

Rule 1a in NFL Football

Failure to recognize when a player is on a downward slide due to age results in embarrassment of player and franchise.

[mightisright]

Personally, I'd take the "next Andrew Rodgers, Brian Urlacher, and Derelle Revis" over the "next Peyton Manning". 3 pro bowlers > 1 pro bowler.

Agreed. We need defensive talent. Solid Free Agents on 1 year contracts and 3-4 defensive guys in EARLY rounds and another good WR. Then we're right back in the playoffs!

[ruksak]

Rule 1a in NFL Football

Failure to recognize when a player is on a downward slide due to age results in embarrassment of player and franchise.

Hey, I want Luck too. The best option is to both keep Manning and draft his heir. That is our best option. If we could only do one of the two, sorry bout the next 15 years bro, I want my Manning. Gots me a total dude-crush on him.

[Jason_]

I think Herm is right. If we draft Luck, we should trade Manning. I've said this in a few other threads before. At most, Manning should be on the roster for one more season if we draft Luck. If Manning is healthy, and we will know by the time the draft roles around, I personally do not believe we should draft Luck, but if we do, the best thing the franchise can do is get rid of Peyton and let Luck take the reigns asap.

Also, regardless of if the Colts offensive is simple or complex (it's actually a simple offense ran in a very complex way because of how all 11 offensive players must read defenses on the fly), we should and will---at least I hope---change our offense for whoever the QB is who follows Manning. This is one reason I'm against drafting Luck and sitting him behind Peyton for 3 or 4 years. The team and offense will be completely different. Peyton, Moore, and Christensen created an offense catered to Peyton's strengths, which will never be replicated by another QB. If it was that easy to do, then a bunch of other teams would be running an offense like the Colts, but they aren't. Point is, if we do draft Luck, we will need to cater the offense to his strengths, which will be different than Peyton's. Sure, Luck is good at reading defenses, but so are Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc., and they do not run their offenses like the Colts with Manning behind center. Hence, unless our coaching staff and front office are complete * (which I'm beginning to wonder), we will completely overhaul our offensive system for the next QB.

Excellent post...I agree on all counts. The only thing I would do is change the word "catered" to "evolved to"...I don't think those guys ever had any idea early on that Peyton would be capable of all the things he does so the offense evolved and became more and more QB dependent. I fully agree with you though on the explanation for the "complexity" of the offense and that the offense will need to be changed, not just tweaked but changed, for the next franchise QB. Then the offense can evolve around his strengths as well.

[pacolts56]

I think Herm is right. If we draft Luck, we should trade Manning. I've said this in a few other threads before. At most, Manning should be on the roster for one more season if we draft Luck. If Manning is healthy, and we will know by the time the draft roles around, I personally do not believe we should draft Luck, but if we do, the best thing the franchise can do is get rid of Peyton and let Luck take the reigns asap. Also, regardless of if the Colts offensive is simple or complex (it's actually a simple offense ran in a very complex way because of how all 11 offensive players must read defenses on the fly), we should and will---at least I hope---change our offense for whoever the QB is who follows Manning. This is one reason I'm against drafting Luck and sitting him behind Peyton for 3 or 4 years. The team and offense will be completely different. Peyton, Moore, and Christensen created an offense catered to Peyton's strengths, which will never be replicated by another QB. If it was that easy to do, then a bunch of other teams would be running an offense like the Colts, but they aren't. Point is, if we do draft Luck, we will need to cater the offense to his strengths, which will be different than Peyton's. Sure, Luck is good at reading defenses, but so are Rodgers, Brees, Brady, etc., and they do not run their offenses like the Colts with Manning behind center. Hence, unless our coaching staff and front office are complete * (which I'm beginning to wonder), we will completely overhaul our offensive system for the next QB.

That was an excellent analysis.....regardless of which QB succeeds Peyton Manning, any discussion of the Colts "system" in these Andrew Luck love/hate threads is a complete and utter waste of time.

Peyton Manning...quite clearly....IS the Colts system, for now.

And I mostly agree that if we draft Luck, then a 1-2 year time frame for keeping Manning should be the max amount of time....or else skip Luck, trade down and hope to heck the front office maximizes all of the extra picks we'd have.

That's the scary part.