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Free Agency-How 2014 Cap will affect FA this year!


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#1 loudnproudcolt

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 09:57 AM

As we all think about about the names we wish we could have, hope we can acquire,I think there is one thought we need to keep in mind, and I would imagine Grigs is considering it along with other GM's. We have a lot of cap space this year, no doubt about it, and it seems like most people would like to spread it around for many very good players, due to the holes we have instead of just a few big name players. I agree with the sentiment, but there is going to be something at play I have not heard discussed yet! The effect of the 2014 cap on this year's FA market!

 

After FA this year the salary cap is going to go up in the 2014 cap year due to the new television rights deals which will be signed. I have seen only a few numbers, but many have said the move will be substantial. I don't know what substantial is, but it does not really matter in the case of this argument. Since the cap will move up in 2014, and teams due to the CBA have to use 89% of cap space under the CBA (I do not know what loopholes there are if any), then I think a very good argument can be made to sign as many quality players this year as possible and when negotiating price really consider what is going to happen the following year.  Once the cap is lifted next year, the contract signed this year may sound like a bargain next year.

 

I believe we are going to have to be relatively agressive in FA and sign some upper echelon names this year for what may seem like more money than they are worth right now due to this dynamic which will be playing out. For the sake of argument, when I say overpay, I know it still has to be a consideration. But when you go to the store to buy something and you know the price is going to rise, what are your actions?

 

As I said, I don't know how much it will be lifted, but any increase will affect salaries. Simple demand and supply under the CBA rules since money has to be spent. So I would make the case that we keep this in mind when going out and pursuing talent for the Offensive line and other spots. Would love to hear if you agree or disagree with my logic!



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#2 bavanlan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:03 AM

I'm not sure you'll be seeing the big jump; not even the NFL and NFLPA can agree on that.

 

http://www.nfl.com/n...th-for-2014-cap


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#3 ADayWithoutRain

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:09 AM

That's an excellent point!But what exactly do they mean by "substantial jump"?The wording has me perplexed.



#4 bavanlan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:16 AM

That's an excellent point!But what exactly do they mean by "substantial jump"?The wording has me perplexed.

 

From 2005 to 2006, with the new CBA and TV contract, the cap jumped from $85.5M to $102M.


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#5 ADayWithoutRain

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:23 AM

From 2005 to 2006, with the new CBA and TV contract, the cap jumped from $85.5M to $102M.

 

 

So we're looking at least 20 million roughly?I guess we can backload alot of these contracts.I just want to make sure we keep in mind how much it will cost to keep luck in a couple of years.He's top priority.



#6 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:47 AM

So we're looking at least 20 million roughly?I guess we can backload alot of these contracts.I just want to make sure we keep in mind how much it will cost to keep luck in a couple of years.He's top priority.

Read the link that was provided in the second post.  Mr. Kraft, who was a major driving force in getting the CBA done in the first place, doesn't see a dramatic jump in cap coming...he sees it more as a smooth gradual growth.  And those expecting a dramatic growth could be setting themselves up for a big fall.


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#7 bavanlan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:50 AM

So we're looking at least 20 million roughly?I guess we can backload alot of these contracts.I just want to make sure we keep in mind how much it will cost to keep luck in a couple of years.He's top priority.

No.

The NFLPA has been thumping this "big jump" that's going to happen, but the NFL isn't so sure, particularly since the NFLPA's been borrowing against it already. Kraft is on record already stating it's going to be a gradual increase.

We can't renegotiate Luck anyway until 2015, so we'll have a better idea then.

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#8 ADayWithoutRain

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:58 AM

No.

The NFLPA has been thumping this "big jump" that's going to happen, but the NFL isn't so sure, particularly since the NFLPA's been borrowing against it already. Kraft is on record already stating it's going to be a gradual increase.

We can't renegotiate Luck anyway until 2015, so we'll have a better idea then.

 

 

 

Yeah,i know.He's just started his rookie deal.I was just looking ahead.



#9 jdetroia

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:28 AM

Maybe im getting ahead of myself here but if the cap does jump after next season then maybe getting Revis this coming season could be the one of the greatest GM moves made, if the colts can trade for him and sign him before next offseason for a contract that seems steep now, if the cap does jump then its a steal. to have 2 lockdown corners, andrew luck and still available cap space the future would look very bright for the colts.

 

Ofcourse theres a good chance the cap will not jump and it doesnt work out as smoothly but its something to think about, no?



#10 betheafan41

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:57 AM

So we're looking at least 20 million roughly?I guess we can backload alot of these contracts.I just want to make sure we keep in mind how much it will cost to keep luck in a couple of years.He's top priority.

I Was waiting for someone to mention that aspect. Luck is top priority over everyone else. if he keeps getting better and starts throwing together 4000+ yard 30+ TD seasons until the end of his rookie contract he is going to want big bucks and you cant blame him.


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#11 jvan1973

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:59 AM

I Was waiting for someone to mention that aspect. Luck is top priority over everyone else. if he keeps getting better and starts throwing together 4000+ yard 30+ TD seasons until the end of his rookie contract he is going to want big bucks and you cant blame him.

I'm sure grigson is well aware of the contract luck will be getting in five years.

#12 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:04 PM

To me, Grigson shouldn't take the chance of gambling that the cap is going to make a jump.  Just sets us up for a major fail.  You work within the limits that you know you have and don't start anticipating what's going to happen down the road.  You count on something that doesn't show up......uh oh, now what do you do?  Anticipate steady continued growth and then if/when you have the dramatic jump you deal with it then.


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#13 ADayWithoutRain

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:06 PM

I Was waiting for someone to mention that aspect. Luck is top priority over everyone else. if he keeps getting better and starts throwing together 4000+ yard 30+ TD seasons until the end of his rookie contract he is going to want big bucks and you cant blame him.

 

 

His(luck) future contract will be mad money!So,our GM is really going to have to be spot on,with FA money distribution,drafts and with  development  of  project type players(similiar to freeman).



#14 IndyTrav

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:20 PM

I think this "Luck Mega Contract" speculation is out of hand. He's not going to get a huge massive contract after his rookie contract. It would take something earth shattering in these next couple of years for him to get anything that would effect the cap in the manner some claim it will.

It will be somewhere in the range of Rodgers extension of 6-$65. Which would put him into his 3rd contract near his ages 30/31. THAT'S where his contract will get huge. If he turns into what we expect.

I like to argue. 


#15 theanarchist

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:08 PM

As we all think about about the names we wish we could have, hope we can acquire,I think there is one thought we need to keep in mind, and I would imagine Grigs is considering it along with other GM's. We have a lot of cap space this year, no doubt about it, and it seems like most people would like to spread it around for many very good players, due to the holes we have instead of just a few big name players. I agree with the sentiment, but there is going to be something at play I have not heard discussed yet! The effect of the 2014 cap on this year's FA market!

 

After FA this year the salary cap is going to go up in the 2014 cap year due to the new television rights deals which will be signed. I have seen only a few numbers, but many have said the move will be substantial. I don't know what substantial is, but it does not really matter in the case of this argument. Since the cap will move up in 2014, and teams due to the CBA have to use 89% of cap space under the CBA (I do not know what loopholes there are if any), then I think a very good argument can be made to sign as many quality players this year as possible and when negotiating price really consider what is going to happen the following year.  Once the cap is lifted next year, the contract signed this year may sound like a bargain next year.

 

I believe we are going to have to be relatively agressive in FA and sign some upper echelon names this year for what may seem like more money than they are worth right now due to this dynamic which will be playing out. For the sake of argument, when I say overpay, I know it still has to be a consideration. But when you go to the store to buy something and you know the price is going to rise, what are your actions?

 

As I said, I don't know how much it will be lifted, but any increase will affect salaries. Simple demand and supply under the CBA rules since money has to be spent. So I would make the case that we keep this in mind when going out and pursuing talent for the Offensive line and other spots. Would love to hear if you agree or disagree with my logic!

Does anyone know what our cap sitiation is currently? With our current FA not counting against the cap(once free agency starts)where do we sit when that occurs? Well I dug it up and answered it myself. according to one source nfltraderumors, we will be 46 million under the cap. Wow, thats unreal.



#16 NewColtsFan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:14 PM

[hidden post]

 

No....  but the Colts can raise ticket prices...  parking prices...  concession prices and any other prices they can control...

 

Hey, I don't want that to happen....    just sayin....


Edited by Superman, 24 January 2013 - 06:58 PM.
editing out hidden post


#17 jvan1973

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:45 PM

No.... but the Colts can raise ticket prices... parking prices... concession prices and any other prices they can control...

Hey, I don't want that to happen.... just sayin....

Non of that increases the salary cap. No matter how much a team makes, they are only allowed to spend do much on players

#18 NewColtsFan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 03:55 PM

Non of that increases the salary cap. No matter how much a team makes, they are only allowed to spend do much on players

 

True....   didn't mean to suggest otherwise....    I was only talking about Indy's ability to make more money if they want. 

 

Sorry for the confusion....



#19 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 04:15 PM

No....  but the Colts can raise ticket prices...  parking prices...  concession prices and any other prices they can control...

 

Hey, I don't want that to happen....    just sayin....

Still doesn't mean that money raised can do anything about the cap number.  The cap ceiling is the cap ceiling no matter what they want to charge


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#20 DarkHorseColts

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 04:23 PM

Another aspect of this is the cap floor, which kicks in next season. I don't fully understand it, but I believe the teams have to spend somewhere around 90% of the cap total over a 4 year span. However, I think this is total cash outlay over that span, not necessarily a requirement to be at a certain percentage of the cap (so big signing bonuses will come into play as well if that's the case).

 

If there are any NFL salary cap lawyers out there that can clarify, please jump right in :)



#21 Superman

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:59 PM

I've seen a ton of projections on the 2014 cap, as high as $130m. Don't know if any are credible.


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#22 Rebelknight

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:56 AM

I think this logic is dangerous. I liken it to the home mortages that had the adjustable APR...( ARM)  ..Its all fine and dandy at first but if things dont work like you think you are in a world of hurt when the bills come. IF the cap doesnt rise in 2014 you would have to good players...

 

Plan for what you know not what you dont..








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