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Should we get Revis? [Merge]


Smonroe

Do you want Revis (poll)  

156 members have voted

  1. 1. while still paying a fair price to get him



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I agree, I would always be leery of giving up anything for a player that is coming off a major knee injury, I don't care how good they are/were. There is always a chance for immediate re-injury or the possibility of him never being the same. When it comes to someone like Revis, who will require giving up picks/future picks, and giving him a huge contract, I will pass everytime. Let some other team risk their future. IMO there are other CB's available without nearly as much risk. They may not be as good but they are not bad either and would still be an upgrade over what we have now.

 

I understand the concern, but recent contracts for injured players have been done in a way that has set the table for future negotiations. Like the Manning contract, which I mentioned in a previous post.

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True. So I don't know how that would work. And heck if rumors are even true of the Jets really moving the guy.

 

Also, you have to wonder if the Jets would hope for some help on offense in return. Or a player or two, period no matter where he plays.

 

 

I just am not convinced they would want just picks?

 

 

I still think it is an awfully big risk for any team to take depending on what the asking price is by the Jets. Too many picks, too much money and the guy is coming off an ACL tear even if he is known as maybe the best CB in football.

 

I don't think the Jets want players. They're over the cap, and trading Revis actually results in a cap penalty. I think this year is going to be a throwaway year for them, and unless they exceed expectations (playoffs!) Rex Ryan is gone. If they can add some picks in the next couple of drafts and get well under the cap for the 2014 offseason, they'll be primed to get back in the mix in that division. And if they have two firsts in 2014 as a result of the Revis trade (or two seconds, or whatever), that might help them move up in the first round in that year and take the best quarterback available.

 

I agree with you that the total cost of trading for Revis is too high. Maybe a team with extra picks (like the Rams, courtesy of the Redskins) would be willing to part with picks, but not without an extension. And you're right back to the money.

 

Tough situation.

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After making a CB trade last year I am not sure I can see the Colts doing it again. Maybe they pick someone up in FA though.......we have money.

 

 

I think we'll add a CB through free agency, somebody like Cary Williams. He's not great but I think he would be a serious upgrade for us and give us another good CB to pair with Davis. The money Revis is rumored to want is ridiculous IMO, I've heard he wants around the 16 million a yr. range. I don't care if he's the best CB in the league or not he is not worth that type of money. IMO that type of money should be reserved for QB's and only QB's. If a team is willing to sink 20 some million dollars a yr. into the CB position, it will be awful hard to build a competitive all around team.

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I don't think the Jets want players. They're over the cap, and trading Revis actually results in a cap penalty. I think this year is going to be a throwaway year for them, and unless they exceed expectations (playoffs!) Rex Ryan is gone. If they can add some picks in the next couple of drafts and get well under the cap for the 2014 offseason, they'll be primed to get back in the mix in that division. And if they have two firsts in 2014 as a result of the Revis trade (or two seconds, or whatever), that might help them move up in the first round in that year and take the best quarterback available.

 

I agree with you that the total cost of trading for Revis is too high. Maybe a team with extra picks (like the Rams, courtesy of the Redskins) would be willing to part with picks, but not without an extension. And you're right back to the money.

 

Tough situation.

 

 

Ohhh I forgot about the Rams. Hmmm, I wonder if Jeff Fisher's boys would go for this? They got the picks and they play in a brutal division. And yes if you get Revis you would want him to sign an extension and not risk losing him after giving up the picks.

 

I do not know how much money the Rams have though.

 

I swear I saw Cincy has loads of money too this offseason. Do they still have extra picks from the Palmer trade left?

 

Something tells me though the Jets may have more interest in trading him to an NFC team. I think the Bucs have a lot of money too and they play a loaded QB division.

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Plus add to that we only have Davis under contract for 2013. So do you want to have 20+ mill tied up in your two CB's or do you want to let Davis go after next year ? I would tend to keep Davis and use the money on a Freeney replacement or O Line. Plus if you figure Davis in your long term plans , you have a little flexibility with the 46 mill of cap space. If Grigson doesn't like this years market he could just sign a couple of free agants and use some of the cap to re-up Davis this year. That might bring down Davis' next deal as he's only scheduled to make around 1.5 mill in 2013. That might make him a little more anxious to get a deal done this year . If he plays lights out in 2103 , he could easily be a 11 mill, per year CB in the 2014 free agent market. The contracts signed in 2012 for UFA CB's was crazy. 

 

All valid considerations, but I don't think we would avoid adding top tier talent at cornerback just because we're going to have to pay Davis in a year. At this point, we don't know what Davis is going to be, or how much he's going to be able to command as a free agent. And if I had to choose between paying Revis top dollar (assuming health) and paying Davis moderate dollar, I'd rather pay Revis. Not $16m/year, and not giving up a bunch of picks on top of that. But I wouldn't avoid Revis just because we have Davis.

 

But on that topic, I could see us trying to preempt a costly Davis contract by extending him now. Maybe three years, $15m, heavy base salaries or roster bonuses in 2014 and 2015, when the cap is set to increase. But that's a decision I wouldn't want to move on until just before camp, once we have a better idea of what the cap situation looks like for 2013 and 2014. We'll need to get to 89% at some point. I'd rather pay a little extra now to a player with long term potential to save money in the next two seasons.

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I understand the concern, but recent contracts for injured players have been done in a way that has set the table for future negotiations. Like the Manning contract, which I mentioned in a previous post.

 

 

 

Yeah you can structure the new contract in a way to protect the team but the problem is, what has the team already lost as a result of the trade? How many early picks has the team lost? How many good potential players could have been drafted with the picks you gave up in the 1st place? That is my concern, Is it worth that risk knowing he's coming off ACL surgery and potentially will never be the same, with the same quickness, the same cutting ability, the same jumping ability? My answer to any of those questions is a resounding.....NO! I would rather sign somebody not as talented, but still plenty good enough to be a good quality starter.

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I think we'll add a CB through free agency, somebody like Cary Williams. He's not great but I think he would be a serious upgrade for us and give us another good CB to pair with Davis. The money Revis is rumored to want is ridiculous IMO, I've heard he wants around the 16 million a yr. range. I don't care if he's the best CB in the league or not he is not worth that type of money. IMO that type of money should be reserved for QB's and only QB's. If a team is willing to sink 20 some million dollars a yr. into the CB position, it will be awful hard to build a competitive all around team.

 

We could. At least for a couple years.

We could improve the offensive line, significantly improve the secondary with Revis and a safety, and add a pass rusher, all this offseason. That would plug practically every hole on our roster, and we haven't even discussed remaining draft picks. I think we have the cap space in the next two or three seasons to stay balanced even if we pay Revis what he's asking for. The cap goes up in 2014, and we don't have to worry about Luck's contract until after that. Any team with a quarterback on a rookie contract probably could.

 

If you gave Revis four years, $64m (that's nuts, but whatever), with $44.5m guaranteed (technically) over the first two years, you could structure it this way:

 

Signing bonus of $8m, roster bonus in 2013 of $7m (that's the highest roster bonus I can remember seeing), guaranteed base salary of $5m. Total cash in 2013 = $20m. Option bonus of $9m due at the start of 2014 league year (based on his injury status; if he clears a physical, the option gets picked up), and if the option is picked up, base salaries in 2014 and 2015 are guaranteed. If option not picked up, cap penalty in 2014 is $6m. Base salary in 2014 of $7.5m. Total cash in 2014 = $16.5m. Roster bonus of $3m due June 1, 2015, base salary (guaranteed once 2014 option is picked up) in 2015 of $7.5m. Total cash in 2015 = $10.5m. Base salary in 2016 of $17m, guaranteed on September 1, 2016. If released or traded prior to September 1, cap penalty for 2016 is $5m. Objective would be to redo the contract prior to 2016.

 

Cap hit 2013 = $14m ($2m amortized signing bonus, $7m roster bonus, $5m base salary)

Cap hit 2014 = $12.5m ($2m amortized signing bonus + $3m amortized option bonus + $7.5m base salary)

Cap hit 2015 =  $15.5m ($2m amortized signing bonus + $3m amortized option bonus + $3m roster bonus + $7.5m base salary)

Cap hit 2016 = $22m ($2m amortized signing bonus + $3m amortized option bonus + $17m base salary)

 

Someone let me know if I missed something, or messed something up.

 

I don't think I would do this. Just pointing out that we could, and would still be able to field a good team, given our current cap situation.

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Yeah you can structure the new contract in a way to protect the team but the problem is, what has the team already lost as a result of the trade? How many early picks has the team lost? How many good potential players could have been drafted with the picks you gave up in the 1st place? That is my concern, Is it worth that risk knowing he's coming off ACL surgery and potentially will never be the same, with the same quickness, the same cutting ability, the same jumping ability? My answer to any of those questions is a resounding.....NO! I would rather sign somebody not as talented, but still plenty good enough to be a good quality starter.

 

I agree. I don't think it's a smart move. I voted no on the poll. Just playing devil's advocate.

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Wouldn't it be smarter to front load a Revis contract while we can afford the cap hit now? As the years go by his cap hit lessens allowing us to pay our younger players?

 

The cap should go up significantly in 2014, due to the new TV contracts.

 

But to answer your question, to an extent, yes. But it's a two-edged sword. When you front load a contract, you're reducing the money paid in the final years of the deal. If you have Revis on a four year contract, he'll be 30 years old going into the last year of his deal. If he's making significantly less in that final year than the yearly average, he's more likely to hold out for an extension.

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He would interest me but I wouldn't want to give up a first for him, I wouldn't want the headache of him being a 1st rounder, and his pay rise issues worry me.

I would prefer to go for Cary Williams from the Ravens or Sam Shields for GreenBay. Which ever is cheaper, but I can see both be pretty dear.

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I think we'll add a CB through free agency, somebody like Cary Williams. He's not great but I think he would be a serious upgrade for us and give us another good CB to pair with Davis. The money Revis is rumored to want is ridiculous IMO, I've heard he wants around the 16 million a yr. range. I don't care if he's the best CB in the league or not he is not worth that type of money. IMO that type of money should be reserved for QB's and only QB's. If a team is willing to sink 20 some million dollars a yr. into the CB position, it will be awful hard to build a competitive all around team

 

 

 

I was reading that Williams views hinself to be worth 8-10 mill per year. That kind of deal would make me puke as I thought he was nothing more than an average CB

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All valid considerations, but I don't think we would avoid adding top tier talent at cornerback just because we're going to have to pay Davis in a year. At this point, we don't know what Davis is going to be, or how much he's going to be able to command as a free agent. And if I had to choose between paying Revis top dollar (assuming health) and paying Davis moderate dollar, I'd rather pay Revis. Not $16m/year, and not giving up a bunch of picks on top of that. But I wouldn't avoid Revis just because we have Davis.

 

But on that topic, I could see us trying to preempt a costly Davis contract by extending him now. Maybe three years, $15m, heavy base salaries or roster bonuses in 2014 and 2015, when the cap is set to increase. But that's a decision I wouldn't want to move on until just before camp, once we have a better idea of what the cap situation looks like for 2013 and 2014. We'll need to get to 89% at some point. I'd rather pay a little extra now to a player with long term potential to save money in the next two seasons.

 

 

Maybe I'm crazy but I thought Davis was outstanding once he was comfortable and got over those nagging injuries. I realize that I make assumptions with "being comfotable and the injury thing" but they are reasonable conclusions. He was great in coverage and is a better tackler than any "shut down " CB I can think of Finnegan is a good tackler but I think Davis has better cover skills. I also think if Davis continues to play like he did , he won't get called for so many penalties. Most of the CB's with big reputations are allowed a little more hand contact with WR's. Davis on the other hand was given no leeway (IMO) in his coverage. Anyway my point is that I don't think there is anyway he signs 3 years at 15 mill. If I'm wrong , I hope the Colts start working on that kind of deal yesterday. I think the market for UFA CB's is just too great for him to settle for that. I as pointed out in my last post , C Williams is looking for 8-10 mill per year. Last year the two top CB's each received 5 year deals for 50 mill. I didn't explore how much was guaranteed but these are huge contarcts for Finnegan and Brandon Carr. I think Davis is a way more dynamic CB than Finnegan but maybe I'm over estimating Davis. Could be and the argument would be that he was the 3rd CB at Miami when we traded for him. I tend to think he was just in the wrong place ... think Tim Jennings.

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Two words: Albert Haynesworth.

I'm not saying Revis is that kind of player. I'm just saying that as long as there are Daniel Snyders and Jerry Jones's in the league, someone will pay him. If anyone thinks we can get him for a trade and then redo his contract for under 12-14M, they need to be tested.

And to make matters worse, do we know he's the same player?

 

i think those owners and others have learned their lessons about paying too much for high priced free agents.

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Maybe I'm crazy but I thought Davis was outstanding once he was comfortable and got over those nagging injuries. I realize that I make assumptions with "being comfotable and the injury thing" but they are reasonable conclusions. He was great in coverage and is a better tackler than any "shut down " CB I can think of Finnegan is a good tackler but I think Davis has better cover skills. I also think if Davis continues to play like he did , he won't get called for so many penalties. Most of the CB's with big reputations are allowed a little more hand contact with WR's. Davis on the other hand was given no leeway (IMO) in his coverage. Anyway my point is that I don't think there is anyway he signs 3 years at 15 mill. If I'm wrong , I hope the Colts start working on that kind of deal yesterday. I think the market for UFA CB's is just too great for him to settle for that. I as pointed out in my last post , C Williams is looking for 8-10 mill per year. Last year the two top CB's each received 5 year deals for 50 mill. I didn't explore how much was guaranteed but these are huge contarcts for Finnegan and Brandon Carr. I think Davis is a way more dynamic CB than Finnegan but maybe I'm over estimating Davis. Could be and the argument would be that he was the 3rd CB at Miami when we traded for him. I tend to think he was just in the wrong place ... think Tim Jennings.

 

I agree with you on Davis' play. I might be way low on that contract projection. But he's set to make $1.14m in 2013. I think he would be interested in an extension that puts some money in his pocket right now, and gives the team flexibility to redo his deal in the future. Maybe the numbers don't work, but the structure would be cash heavy up front, with low cap hits in Years 2 and 3. That way, you can build a new extension from scratch after Year 2, instead of putting it on top of previously paid bonuses.

 

Fifteen million is probably too low. Let's call it $21m over three years. Think that would work?

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I agree with you on Davis' play. I might be way low on that contract projection. But he's set to make $1.14m in 2013. I think he would be interested in an extension that puts some money in his pocket right now, and gives the team flexibility to redo his deal in the future. Maybe the numbers don't work, but the structure would be cash heavy up front, with low cap hits in Years 2 and 3. That way, you can build a new extension from scratch after Year 2, instead of putting it on top of previously paid bonuses.

 

Fifteen million is probably too low. Let's call it $21m over three years. Think that would work?

Thats more along the lines I was thinking. But what makes sense to you me and the Colts might not make sense to Davis. I think what we have going for us is that low base for 2013 and the fact players can poop the bed or get hurt in their contract years. If Grigson thinks along the lines as we do , it seems the stars align prefectly to get a deal done. Davis came over from a bad situation , played lights out the last 4-5 games and stated that he loved it here. So rather than chace the next 5 years at 41.4 mill (1.4 + 40) , he gets say 5 years at 36 mill. If the guaranteed money was fair to both sides , would be win .. win. He gets a new deal without risky some kind of 2013 disaster and the Colts lock him up long term using as much of the 45 mill of cap as they want. 

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I agree with you on Davis' play. I might be way low on that contract projection. But he's set to make $1.14m in 2013. I think he would be interested in an extension that puts some money in his pocket right now, and gives the team flexibility to redo his deal in the future. Maybe the numbers don't work, but the structure would be cash heavy up front, with low cap hits in Years 2 and 3. That way, you can build a new extension from scratch after Year 2, instead of putting it on top of previously paid bonuses.

 

Fifteen million is probably too low. Let's call it $21m over three years. Think that would work?

That would be a quality signing for the colts. And Davis may go for it and play happier too. Get er done!!! Oh ya no Revis please

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Can we get past the ACL injury? ...Adrian Peterson seems to be doing just fine. (before anyone has as a fit yes I know they are 2 different people and 2 different injuries)

 

I think today we can say theres a strong possibility he will be able to recover at a high level.

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Can we get past the ACL injury? ...Adrian Peterson seems to be doing just fine. (before anyone has as a fit yes I know they are 2 different people and 2 different injuries)

 

I think today we can say theres a strong possibility he will be able to recover at a high level.

 

Yeah, the ACL is still a significant injury. For every Adrian Peterson-like recovery, there's a delayed and prolonged rehab. And then there's the majority of guys who fall in between. Revis had surgery in October. He'll be nine or ten months past when training camps open. It's not a foregone conclusion that he'll be ready, or even at 100%.

 

Also, Dr. James Andrews didn't do Revis' operation. ;)

 

Anyways, I agree that Revis should get back to his normal high level of play, but there's the possibility of a setback, or a prolonged recovery. And then you've given up a slew of picks for 11 games of Revis, maybe 6 of those at a high level, and then he walks in free agency. Being concerned about the injury is valid. I don't think any smart GM will trade for him without negotiating an extension first.

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Can we get past the ACL injury? ...Adrian Peterson seems to be doing just fine. (before anyone has as a fit yes I know they are 2 different people and 2 different injuries)

 

I think today we can say theres a strong possibility he will be able to recover at a high level.

 

 

Yes many players come back from the injury. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature, not many people suffer that kind of injury and come back as quickly as he did, some wouldn't make it back at all. The point is every player is different with a different anatomy, different ability to recover. Here's an article that sheds some light on ACL surgery's for NFL players that explains why most NFL players are never quite the same after ACL surgery.

 

http://www.empowereddoctor.com/acl-injuries-with-nfl-players-orthopedics

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Yes many players come back from the injury. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature, not many people suffer that kind of injury and come back as quickly as he did, some wouldn't make it back at all. The point is every player is different with a different anatomy, different ability to recover. Here's an article that sheds some light on ACL surgery's for NFL players that explains why most NFL players are never quite the same after ACL surgery.

http://www.empowereddoctor.com/acl-injuries-with-nfl-players-orthopedics

I remember when Edgerrin tore his and it took him 2 years before he looked and played "normal".

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Here we go with the rumor mills. According to this article the Colts aren't listed as a team interested in a trade and I'm glad considering the compensation being talked about in the article. Who knows if this article has any validity to it or not, but if it does, I hope the Colts don't get caught up in a bidding war. I honestly don't think we will.

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/mike-freeman/21612943/gold-rush-forming-for-possible-revis-trade

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I would love to have Revis. Who wouldn't want to have him? But if it costs a 1st round pick, that would mean the first two picks were spent on CBs which would be fine if they'd already invested in the trenches. I'd rather they build from the inside out. Not even Revis can cover for 10 seconds.

Can we get past the ACL injury? ...Adrian Peterson seems to be doing just fine. (before anyone has as a fit yes I know they are 2 different people and 2 different injuries)

 

I think today we can say theres a strong possibility he will be able to recover at a high level.

Yeah, you're right two different people so it's hard to compare. Peterson is just a freaky guy though not only was he able to push up the surgery date because his swelling went down incredibly fast, he also had an usually pristine knee with absolutely no signs of wear or tear.

 

Dr. Andrews agreed to talk to me about AP's knee. "He runs good tread on it," he says in that reassuring Louisiana country doctor accent that the most famous athletes in the world pay premium to have available on speed dial. "The big problem that we have in the NFL is that they wear out the patellofemoral joint, where the kneecap glides on the end of the thigh bone. We even start seeing this in college, sometimes even in high school. That articulate cartilage wears early in them. But the inside of AP's patellofemoral joint looks like white glistening marble. When it's worn it looks like a shaggy rug. That's a problem, because when you go to rehab 'em, it propagates further wear and they break down because they already have bad surfaces."
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8732847/how-minnesota-adrian-peterson-became-best-running-back-football-again
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we should draft a fake dead girlfriend?

I dont think we need to invest the money, picks or gamble on the odds of him returning too 100 percent. We may already have our own Island here in Davis by the end of the upcoming season. Revis strikes me as a player that may not be a team player.(JMO) Last thing we need to do is mess with the locker room chemistry.  If you did sign him and he came back at less than 100 percent then what would you have? Just another over priced CB with no upside and too much invested. Way too much.

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What has he done to give you that impression?

Not real sure what it is, maybe I shouldnt have said that. Just have a feeling. I havent really seen anything specific, maybe its just the overall disfunction of the Jets organization that I dont like, who knows? But I still pass. He was a great CB but post injury who knows. He maybe even better here but I doubt we ever find out. Does that help with what I meant?

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I don't know if this has already been posted, but there's an article about the "Gold Rush" for Revis on CBS Sports.

 

They claim the Seahawks, Ravens, and 49ers are interested.  Denver and GB too.

 

They agree the Jets wouldn't be stupid enough to trade him to a division rival.  No mention of Indy.  Which is fine with me.

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