Free Agency vs Draft?

[PrincetonTiger]

By over paying our own free agents

agreed

[MSColtsFan]

Just for reference, here is an interesting chart/article on the results for teams most active in free agency between 2006 and 2011.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/03/nfls_track_record_on_building.html

 

We can dislike Polian's contracts, decisions to keep his own players in house, but the results league-wide would suggest that drafting well and retaining your own has been the more reasonable approach to sustained success.  There are exceptions, but not many.

[Superman]

Just for reference, here is an interesting chart/article on the results for teams most active in free agency between 2006 and 2011.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/03/nfls_track_record_on_building.html

 

We can dislike Polian's contracts, decisions to keep his own players in house, but the results league-wide would suggest that drafting well and retaining your own has been the more reasonable approach to sustained success.  There are exceptions, but not many.

 

I never had a problem with the approach. The problem comes when you start overpaying your own, and even worse when your drafting slips. And you know, mistakes happen, sometimes you miss on a pick, or a contract winds up being a bad deal, but I think you should be willing to augment your draft-heavy approach with a free agent acquisition to shore up a position of need that you missed on in the draft.

[husker61]

I see a bit of a contradiction in this post, and I'm trying to understand the perspective - so forgive me.  So on the one hand you have issues with resigning existing players, and then close with it's very hard to draft in the late 20s and replace impact players.  This is the exact point to me - a GM has to balance those exact things.  It would be hard to deny both truths regarding a player like Sanders.  He had as large an impact on a game as any defensive player the Colts have had in years.  And, he had a history of injury.  In hindsight it is easy to say he didn't "earn" his last contract.  But no player is paid for future success, they are paid on past results with hopes of continued similar or improved results.  Anyway, if you dislked the signing of existing players, and also don't expect much draft success at later parts of rounds, then what is the solution? 

 

 

the problem is overpaying players that can be replaced with comparable players like happened with all the players i mentioned. the colts have done a good job of drafting comparable replacement players for most positions. the draft comment was regarding fans that think every 1st round pick should be a pro bowl player and later picks should be starters just because a starter was picked after their team selected (always after the fact). sanders was injury prone before he got that big contract, so i would have never given him that kind of contract.

[MSColtsFan]

I never had a problem with the approach. The problem comes when you start overpaying your own, and even worse when your drafting slips. And you know, mistakes happen, sometimes you miss on a pick, or a contract winds up being a bad deal, but I think you should be willing to augment your draft-heavy approach with a free agent acquisition to shore up a position of need that you missed on in the draft.

 

 

the problem is overpaying players that can be replaced with comparable players like happened with all the players i mentioned. the colts have done a good job of drafting comparable replacement players for most positions. the draft comment was regarding fans that think every 1st round pick should be a pro bowl player and later picks should be starters just because a starter was picked after their team selected (always after the fact). sanders was injury prone before he got that big contract, so i would have never given him that kind of contract.

 

Gotcha both, and I agree with both of you.

 

There is a funny little thing about Sanders, as one example.  His contract was signed in December 2007.  The list of 2008 FA safeties included people like Gibril Wilson, Ken Hamlin, Marlon McCree, Yeremiah Bell, Eugene Wilson, and Madieu Williams.  Sanders production when on the field literally meant going from 5.3 yards a carry to stopping the best running teams in the playoffs and winning a Superbowl when he returned in 2006, and allowing only 3.9 yards a carry in 2007, when he played 15 games.  The Colts haven't replaced that production yet, five seasons later.  Nobody could know then that Sanders would play in only 11 more games ever in the NFL.  Could we have guessed he'd miss time?  Absolutely.  But even when a part-time player, the Colts D was vastly improved.  He was as good and talented as Polamula and Reed.  And the alternatives that season in FA, well, lets say that list isn't full of huge impact guys.  None nearly as talented as Sanders at the least.  So at that moment in time, based on the substantial impact on the field, I think it's hard to say he wasn't worth keeping.  At that price?  The Colts likely overpaid, but another team would have offered him that money, or had the Colts franchised him, he would have earned it, albeit for a year (or two).  It's easier now, knowing he never returned to that form.

 

But I understand the other side of this too - why Polian's iincreasingly poor draft record, coupled with bad resigns, had us heading to 2011. 

 

The Colts didn't have a first round pick in April 2008.  Why?  They gave it, and a 4th rounder to the 49ers to move up to take Ugoh in 2007.  Know who the 49ers took with that 4th round pick in 2008?  Dashon Goldson, one of the best safeties in the NFL now. 

 

I'm a draft, keep your own, and then FA guy, in that order.  I don't disagree Polian had bad contracts.  But for every Sanders or Clark, there was Harrison, Freeney, Manning, Vinateri too, who also got the most expensive contracts at their positions at one time, and we wouldn't say those turned out badly.  Ok, now we can say Freeney, in the last year, might be a wee-bit costly....   but even with him, good luck finding the next guy to bring 107 sacks to you in a career.  That won't be easy. 

[Superman]

Gotcha both, and I agree with both of you.

 

There is a funny little thing about Sanders, as one example.  His contract was signed in December 2007.  The list of 2008 FA safeties included people like Gibril Wilson, Ken Hamlin, Marlon McCree, Yeremiah Bell, Eugene Wilson, and Madieu Williams.  Sanders production when on the field literally meant going from 5.3 yards a carry to stopping the best running teams in the playoffs and winning a Superbowl when he returned in 2006, and allowing only 3.9 yards a carry in 2007, when he played 15 games.  The Colts haven't replaced that production yet, five seasons later.  Nobody could know then that Sanders would play in only 11 more games ever in the NFL.  Could we have guessed he'd miss time?  Absolutely.  But even when a part-time player, the Colts D was vastly improved.  He was as good and talented as Polamula and Reed.  And the alternatives that season in FA, well, lets say that list isn't full of huge impact guys.  None nearly as talented as Sanders at the least.  So at that moment in time, based on the substantial impact on the field, I think it's hard to say he wasn't worth keeping.  At that price?  The Colts likely overpaid, but another team would have offered him that money, or had the Colts franchised him, he would have earned it, albeit for a year (or two).  It's easier now, knowing he never returned to that form.

 

But I understand the other side of this too - why Polian's iincreasingly poor draft record, coupled with bad resigns, had us heading to 2011. 

 

The Colts didn't have a first round pick in April 2008.  Why?  They gave it, and a 4th rounder to the 49ers to move up to take Ugoh in 2007.  Know who the 49ers took with that 4th round pick in 2008?  Dashon Goldson, one of the best safeties in the NFL now. 

 

I'm a draft, keep your own, and then FA guy, in that order.  I don't disagree Polian had bad contracts.  But for every Sanders or Clark, there was Harrison, Freeney, Manning, Vinateri too, who also got the most expensive contracts at their positions at one time, and we wouldn't say those turned out badly.  Ok, now we can say Freeney, in the last year, might be a wee-bit costly....   but even with him, good luck finding the next guy to bring 107 sacks to you in a career.  That won't be easy. 

 

[hoosierhawk]

I guess I would agree that given a choice I would rather build thru the draft. However, given the circumstances of today, we have a ton of  money to spend and a ton of holes to fill. In this case you do it with both the draft and FA. Grigson hopefully will get it done.

[husker61]

I guess I would agree that given a choice I would rather build thru the draft. However, given the circumstances of today, we have a ton of  money to spend and a ton of holes to fill. In this case you do it with both the draft and FA. Grigson hopefully will get it done.

 

i am sure there have been some (i can't think of any), but signing high dollar free agents rarely improves teams. they are usually older,  that isn't a good thing in the nfl, and if they don't work out the team is screwed on the cap for a couple years.

[MSColtsFan]

i am sure there have been some (i can't think of any), but signing high dollar free agents rarely improves teams. they are usually older,  that isn't a good thing in the nfl, and if they don't work out the team is screwed on the cap for a couple years.

 

Best ever might be Brees.  But the list of bad ones is endless...