Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Do We Have the WORST Defense in the League?

Smonroe

By Smonroe
in Colts Football

 Share

Recommended Posts

Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

Posted
Posted

I've been having a back and forth with Nate Dunlevy on the Colts Authority website.  I think Nate is a very good writer, he's written a couple of really interesting books, and he's always fair in his articles.

 

He said the Colts have one of the bottom 5, if not the worst, D's in the league.  He uses a lot of stats to prove his points.  (Old adage - "Statistics never lie, statisticians do)

 

My point is that our D is by no means good, but RIGHT NOW, we're not very bad.  Certainly not one of the bottom 5 in the league.  We gave up 3 points in the second half of the Titans game and one TD to Houston.  Bend but didn't break, many times during that game.

 

Now, if we give up 30 points to the Chiefs, I'll have to buy Nate a virtual beer.  But if we continue to play at this level, it's a D that's good enough to let a very good offense win.

 

Thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
basketballsteve Practice Squad

basketballsteve

Posted
Posted

No, almost a silly statement. Take the Detroit game form example, the Colts make key plays to hold Detroit to 2 field goals at the end that could easily have been TD's and then get a 3 and out or that comeback does not happen. Vaughn chasing down a RB going for a sure TD.  Likewise they virtually stone the Packers in the 2nd half until that last Packer TD drive but get the final stop at the end after Reggie's TD. They are not a good defense but the WORST defense in the league does not make these types of crucial plays to win/seal games. And those are only 2 examples of good play by the defense this year. The Colt D has done okay with limited talent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

Posted
Posted

No....   not the worst, and frankly, at least statistically,  we're not even close.

 

I think the last I looked we were in the low 20's in most stat categories...    so, using stats to lie for my argument,  we're a bottom-10 defense, but not a bottom-5!

 

If we had the worst,  we would NOT be 9-5 about to be 10-5 tomorrow!!      :thmup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derakynn Active Roster

Derakynn

Posted
Posted

After reading about 2 articles from him, I easily came to the conclusion that he is not a trustworthy source nor opinion for anything. Our defense must be terrible, we let AP rush for 76 yards. Our defense won us the 2nd Titans game. And it's ranked somewhere around 20th overall. I guess that means there is only 20 teams in the league, weird I thought it was something like 32.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

Posted
  • Author
Posted
We are No.19 in allowing 3rd down completions defensively

 

 

We are No.24 in pts allowed per game

 

 

We are No.21 in yards allowed per game

 

 

One could make a case that we may be the worst defense among playoff teams but we are not the worst defense in the league by any stretch of imagination. Show these stats to Dunleavy then. :)

I'll try to invite him to join this thread.  I tried to point out that statistics don't tell who you are, they tell who you were.  Point being that right now, going into week 16, we're not the worst (or even bottom 5) D's in the league.  The worst D in the league doesn't hold the Titans to 3 points in a half.  They don't hold the Texans to one TD.

 

Nate can use selective stats to prove his point.  We can use selective stats to counterpoint.  But bottom line, the D we are Sunday is not the same as the one that played in week 1 or week 10.  

 

I guess I'm saying we're not the worst D in the league this week.  How we rank over the entire season is meaningless Sunday.  It's as meaningless as the "Team X has lost 10 of 15 games the last time they played Team Y" stat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Larry Horseman Practice Squad

Larry Horseman

Posted
Posted

Knowing his writing style, I'm assuming he's using football outsiders DVOA, which does have the Colts D 30th. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Neither the D or the O look particularly good on paper in traditional or advanced stats. The O is ranked 19th and Luck is ranked 21st in DVOA.

More than any team I can remember, you really have to watch them play to get a sense of the fact that they are actually worthy of a wildcard spot. The main problem is that they never play a complete game and thus the stats are not impressive. however, I still think the stats help tell the story of this years Colts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
basketballsteve Practice Squad

basketballsteve

Posted
Posted

What Nate doesn't take into account when he uses stats to say the Colts D is the worst is that stats tell a person what the defense did but it excludes for the most part when the D did any particular thing. On defense 1 great play can negate a series of bad defensive plays. In theory a D could allow the opponent to drive into the red zone on every drive but if they always got a stop and held the opponent to a field goal or less would that be a good D? Depends on what stats you looked at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Knowing his writing style, I'm assuming he's using football outsiders DVOA, which does have the Colts D 30th. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Neither the D or the O look particularly good on paper in traditional or advanced stats. The O is ranked 19th and Luck is ranked 21st in DVOA.

More than any team I can remember, you really have to watch them play to get a sense of the fact that they are actually worthy of a wildcard spot. The main problem is that they never play a complete game and thus the stats are not impressive. however, I still think the stats help tell the story of this years Colts.

 

 

What Nate doesn't take into account when he uses stats to say the Colts D is the worst is that stats tell a person what the defense did but it excludes for the most part when the D did any particular thing. On defense 1 great play can negate a series of bad defensive plays. In theory a D could allow the opponent to drive into the red zone on every drive but if they always got a stop and held the opponent to a field goal or less would that be a good D? Depends on what stats you looked at.

 

 

You guys (and a few others) made my point a lot better than I did.  Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tark The Shark Walk On

Tark The Shark

Posted
Posted

I actually think we have one of the better 2nd half defenses in the league.

 

I could see what he means if he was talking the first half defense. But with injuries to key players all year, that has kept us from being a good defense. When we have our group of key starters (Redding, Mathis, Freeney, and Davis) we are actually pretty good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chrisfarley Practice Squad

chrisfarley

Posted
Posted

Just looking at the stats for what they're worth. yea, we rank really low, say 6th or so from the bottom. But if you look at the stats in critical situations for every single game (which I did), when it counted, we made a ton of plays. There were times when in crunch time we didn't (Jacksonville game), but for the most part we did in crunch time. The hapless J-ville QB was held to very few yards, save the last play. Now, for example, in the Green Bay game. We bent like silly putty in the first half, but in the 2nd half, we stepped in up ferocioulsy defensively, so that's what I looked at in all the games. We were then middle of the pack to a tick up from that even. So yea, let's take it for what it's worth. We are not that good of a "full-game defense", but we are who we think we are, a defense that can patchwork together some important plays that can be game changers, thus making us better than who THEY think we are!!!! Straight up!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Larry Horseman Practice Squad

Larry Horseman

Posted
Posted
I actually think we have one of the better 2nd half defenses in the league.

I could see what he means if he was talking the first half defense. But with injuries to key players all year, that has kept us from being a good defense. When we have our group of key starters (Redding, Mathis, Freeney, and Davis) we are actually pretty good.

It's refreshing to have a coaching staff that makes solid halftime adjustments. That was a great part of Dungy and really lacking under Caldwell.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Holden89 Practice Squad

Holden89

Posted
Posted

I don't think our defense is quite as bad as the numbers make it seem.  Our offense is VERY turnover prone, which puts the D into a lot of bad situations.  We've won most of our games because of our defense, not Luck... (although he deserves his credit as well).   None of those tremendous comebacks are possible (even back in the Manning days) if the defense keeps letting the other team score.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The Fish Active Roster

The Fish

Posted
Posted

This D is o.k.

They're better against the run than they've been in ages. The secondary is about as bad as it was in the 02,03,04 era. Every team that has a good receiver goes over 100 yards on this secondary it seems.

They're a few parts away from being "good", but they do play inspired when they have to and you can't really measure that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

Posted
Posted

No, if we did the stats would back it up.  This isn't even the worst defense in recent Colts history.  They are much better against the run than they have been in years past for example and frankly this is with spending very little money on the defense on this off-season and losing the head coach who was supposed to have an impact on the defense and replacing him with an offensive coach. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gavin Walk On

Gavin

Posted
Posted

1.We are 21st in the league in passing attempts against BUT we are 21st in the league in passing yards ALLOWED, 20th in yards per pass given up (7.4). 21st in total yards per game allowed. 28th in interceptions. 23rd in total rushing yards allowed and 4.8 ypc allowed. Is that that WORST in the league? no but its not a defense that in any way possible could be remotely close to decent let alone good

Link to comment
Share on other sites
shakedownstreet Team Captain

shakedownstreet

Posted
Posted
We have had a LOT of turnovers on offense..but the key stat is how many points were scored by opposing teams off our turnovers...Wasn't it 13 points going into the Houston game?..

 

You have to have a decent defense to be able to do that...

 

our defense rises to the clutchiness of andrew luck. shows they have great leadership and innadequate talent. i like where we are going

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Yeah, that's the point of the discussion.  Nate goes by pure stats.  Pure stats don't tell the story of where you are now, only a compilation of where you've been.  If pure stats told the true story, there would be no Vegas.  

 

I'm saying that RIGHT NOW we do not have the worst D in the league.  What we did in week 1 or week 10 has no bearing on how we're playing now.  But the stats still say it does.

 

Feel me?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
John Dee Walk On

John Dee

Posted
Posted
I've been having a back and forth with Nate Dunlevy on the Colts Authority website.  I think Nate is a very good writer, he's written a couple of really interesting books, and he's always fair in his articles.

 

He said the Colts have one of the bottom 5, if not the worst, D's in the league.  He uses a lot of stats to prove his points.  (Old adage - "Statistics never lie, statisticians do)

 

My point is that our D is by no means good, but RIGHT NOW, we're not very bad.  Certainly not one of the bottom 5 in the league.  We gave up 3 points in the second half of the Titans game and one TD to Houston.  Bend but didn't break, many times during that game.

 

Now, if we give up 30 points to the Chiefs, I'll have to buy Nate a virtual beer.  But if we continue to play at this level, it's a D that's good enough to let a very good offense win.

 

Thoughts?

This is a viable argument.. 

 

The Colts D has been BAD...    what 2-3 outings?

 

The rest.. they have practically carried the team.      

 

 

IMO this D has been spectacular.   Along with the O...      I mean really ...  What were YOUR expectations?

 

 

I called 6-10 wins IF "the D can hold up and play ball"......   And they have.

 

 

hehe    :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

Posted
Posted
This is a viable argument.. 

 

The Colts D has been BAD...    what 2-3 outings?

 

The rest.. they have practically carried the team.      

 

 

IMO this D has been spectacular.   Along with the O...      I mean really ...  What were YOUR expectations?

 

 

I called 6-10 wins IF "the D can hold up and play ball"......   And they have.

 

 

hehe    :)

I don't know about carry them but I do think they have been better for the most part than in recent years most noticeably against the run.  They are still only a middle of the NFL level team at stopping the run but for years the Colts were one of the worst in the league at doing that so being middle of the pack is a major improvement for them. 

 

We clearly still have major improvements to make to the defense but since we didn't do much with the defense this off-season that shouldn't surprise anyone. With that said the few moves the have made have been really good, Redding has been worth every cent we paid for him.  Davis might not be the best corner in the league but he is by far the best one we have.  Freeman might be the steal of the off-season.  Fokou hasn't gotten a lot of attention this year but he has been very good at being our pass defense linebacker and was well worth Kevin Thomas that we gave up for him.  Even Tevaseu has been a good back up DT brought in in a hard spot.  I also think Vaughn and Butler are good back up corners and were nice finds by Grigson. Now clearly we still have holes to fill, we need a a true 3/4 DT who can start, a number two corner, a true 3/4 OLB to replace Freeney this off-season.  If we can find those players I think our defense could be really really good because I think we have a good core in place for a 3/4 Defense. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
#12 Walk On

#12

Posted
Posted

Bottom 5 would be what, #28?  They're 24th in points, so what are we arguing over, 4 spots?  If you're 24th in points and force no turnovers, yes, I can see how you might be near the bottom in DVOA or other advanced metrics.  

 

We're probably not the right fan base to have an objective discussion on this.  After 14 years of Polian defenses, anything with a pulse looks good to us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coltsman1788 Team Captain

Coltsman1788

Posted
Posted
I don't even think that.

The games where the opponent scored high was mostly because our offense put our defense in very rough situations (Detroit, New England, Chicago, etc.)

Defense isn't great, but I don't think we're horrible either. I'd say average.

Horrible may be too harsh but I think the D is definitely below average...so I'd say its mediocre at best.  They struggle against the short passing game, don't generate turnovers, and the pass rush is subpar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

Posted
Posted
Bottom 5 would be what, #28?  They're 24th in points, so what are we arguing over, 4 spots?  If you're 24th in points and force no turnovers, yes, I can see how you might be near the bottom in DVOA or other advanced metrics.  

 

We're probably not the right fan base to have an objective discussion on this.  After 14 years of Polian defenses, anything with a pulse looks good to us. 

I think most would agree they aren't anything special or even worth writing home about but they aren't the worst in the league either.  It's kinda not being the ugliest person at any ugly contest.  Yeah it's good news that you didn't win but is it really?

 

With that said I do think we have some very very good peaces in place and are much closer to being a good defense than we have been in years.  I would like to make an addition to my list before.  We need a playmaker on defense.  That's been the biggest problem with our defense we can't get of the field with a turnover to save our lives.  We don't have Peyton Manning who can move the ball 80 yards every time with ease anymore.  We need to give Luck an this offense with a short field from time-to-time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
throwing BBZ Ring of Honor

throwing BBZ

Posted
Posted

The Colts D has some scrappy players. The scheme looks solid we just need 3-4 more really good players.

A pass rusher, a really athletic ILB, a Safety and a CB.

I could see our Coaches turning one of the CB`s we have into a very solid player, but we are certain they will go after some Quality in the next draft/FA.

Lots of needs over the next two years.

A WR with some size.

Another 1-2 solid RB`s.

At least 3 O-Lineman

A pass Rusher

Make sure we are solid at NT

A Safety or two.

All doable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wig Practice Squad

wig

Posted
Posted
We are No.19 in allowing 3rd down completions defensively

 

 

We are No.24 in pts allowed per game

 

 

We are No.21 in yards allowed per game

 

 

One could make a case that we may be the worst defense among playoff teams but we are not the worst defense in the league by any stretch of imagination. Show these stats to Dunleavy then. :)

Yeah, not sure what stats he has.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...