2007 Colts held the 2nd seed in AFC and lost to the Chargers in the divisional round.
2005 Colts had the top seed and run flat in the game against Steelers.
2009 Colts gave up a perfect season but went to the Superbowl as the top seed and benefited from resting the injured starters.
My thought is a bye week is only useful for a veteran team knowing how to take advantage of the one week off. For a red-hot team it could become a disruption to the winning rythm can backfire. Also when the team is older they would generally have more key veteran players needing the bye week for healing and resting. This year's Broncos team is a young and healthy team. What they need are more reps and big-game experience. If they play Colts or Bengals in the 1st round they could use it to tune into the playoff mode and learn how to deal with pressure. They just haven't played any game with pressure in over 2 months, which could be a bad thing. Plus the weather in Denver may not make their homefield an advantage when it comes to passing.