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Flash7

Luck's Regression

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why dont we talk about all the great plays he has made hmmmm....

Please feel free to start that thread and I will gladly contribute. I have much to like about Luck's play.

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what I dont get is why we dont use our run to set up the pass? if anything helps a sketchy line is its to run the damn ball. be the aggressor! I hope BA is gone after this year. has done awesome stepping in as coach. but I cant stand his play calling and offensive game planning.

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Wrong. And if it were that simple, why would people bother to invest top picks in QB's at all.

Peyton's oline in 2010 was far worse than this one, factoring in the volume of injuries. THIS line is the one that was rebuilt to replace THAT one. Take a look at Peyton's statistics from that year and think again. What changed with the lack of protection was yards per attempt. The lack of time led to a higher preponderance of quick/short passes - the lack of which was half of the OPs point. And all four QBs you mentioned are incredibly accurate. You can NOT be an elite QB without that.

I don't think I can agree with the 2010 O-line was far worse. In fact, I don't think it is even possible for a NFL O-line to be "far worse" than this yrs.. Aside from Castonzo, Im not sure there is another O-lineman on this team that is even worthy of being a backup in the NFL. This O-line is ridiculously, and comically bad. It would help if Arians would adjust some of the playcalling.

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to easy to forget all the great comebacks and plays hes made. when we can blame him for running for his life in the texan game. against a 11-2 team at that, in their home, after a huge loss, who has a pretty good defense...shall I go on? wth...

Thats a GREAT start lol...Ya forget the Miami game and the Browns game...Andrew is the main reason we are in the position we are in. 

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I think Luck is the real deal, and it shows when he actually has a pocket to throw from. (not very often)

I'm more concerned with Luck's ever increasing tendency to stare down receivers.

And he aimed the ball about 3 times........like a little league pitcher....he needs designed rollouts....no huddle...the kid throws exceptionally well when on a designed roll.

 

Flash.....Regressed is not the right word......in no way shape or form is there regression.  Lets see how he PROGRESSES with some stud linemen next year......and 1 year of experience in the playoffs.....Go get em  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:  :coltshelmet:

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I know QBR isnt the greatest of stats but I don't think your starting QB in Joe Flacco for the ravens is suppose to have a 0.4 QBR Sunday haha that's just sad

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Please feel free to start that thread and I will gladly contribute. I have much to like about Luck's play.

ok I will!

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I don't think I can agree with the 2010 O-line was far worse. In fact, I don't think it is even possible for a NFL O-line to be "far worse" than this yrs.. Aside from Castonzo, Im not sure there is another O-lineman on this team that is even worthy of being a backup in the NFL. This O-line is ridiculously, and comically bad. It would help if Arians would adjust some of the playcalling.

 

 

not only are the bad, but we have had starters in and out of the lineup ALL year. sometimes 2 at a time. its pretty ridiculous.

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They wouldnt be accurate if they got hit or had someone in there face all game long. This is the worst o-line I have ever seen for this team.  

They are all less accurate when under pressure, obviously. But my example reflects the fact that in 2010 Peyton DID get hit and have someone in his face all day long. This oline is worse? Link started a few games for crying out loud (at left tackle if memory serves) and he was fresh out of college. They started out below average and then were ravaged by injuries. Peyton was running for his life on a constant basis, and getting hit repeatedly. The fact that he didn't take a ton of sacks just reflects his ability to makes quick decisions and get rid of the ball without turning it over. And he obviously doesn't have Luck's mobility either.

 

Don't get me wrong. The line is horrible and Luck is terrific, I was just responding to your "it's all about the line" comment.  For starters, consider the fact that Luck will take years to develop to his full potential, while plenty of incredibly average QB's over those years will be standing ineffectively behind stout lines. It's surely more complicated than you depicted it.

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Q: Why is Brady, Rodgers, Ryan and Manning so good?

 

 

A: Because there O-line protects them.

 

Come on people Luck is not regressing at all, He took more sacks and didnt throw any int's! Im sorry but Lucks not the one to blame at all this week!

 

Flash777 put any of the above guys behind our line and they would pass under 50% as well.

 

I am really disappointed in this forum so much negitivity. Why dont we look at the bright side and be more positive we win where in. Far better then what we allExpected at the begainig of the season.

 

GO COLTS!!!

 

 

Rodgers is the best example of what an exceptional QB can do with a horrid OL.  Rodgers has been sacked more than Luck.  And Rodgers is 8th to Luck's #1 in hits, at least according to NFL.com, so the pressure is on Rodgers nearly as often as Luck.  And yet Rodgers leads the NFL in QBR, second in TD passes, 5th in completion percentage, and on and on.  Rodgers of course is amongst the best there is in the business. 

 

Luck is struggling with accuracy.  We can blame the OL, play calling, he's a rookie, rookie WRs, whatever, but look at the QB stats and there are many QBs in very similar situaitons, have similar numbers of attempts, sacks, hits, bad OL play, etc.  Luck needs to become more accurate, however that happens, whatever the combination of factors may be causing the problems.  But a 54.6% completion percentage, which is 46% in the last three weeks, must be improved. 

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not only are the bad, but we have had starters in and out of the lineup ALL year. sometimes 2 at a time. its pretty ridiculous.

Absolutely, This line has never had any opportunity to get any cohesion at all. Not that I think it would improve a whole lot, but it may help a little.

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Rodgers is the best example of what an exceptional QB can do with a horrid OL.  Rodgers has been sacked more than Luck.  And Rodgers is 8th to Luck's #1 in hits, at least according to NFL.com, so the pressure is on Rodgers nearly as often as Luck.  And yet Rodgers leads the NFL in QBR, second in TD passes, 5th in completion percentage, and on and on.  Rodgers of course is amongst the best there is in the business. 

 

Luck is struggling with accuracy.  We can blame the OL, play calling, he's a rookie, rookie WRs, whatever, but look at the QB stats and there are many QBs in very similar situaitons, have similar numbers of attempts, sacks, hits, bad OL play, etc.  Luck needs to become more accurate, however that happens, whatever the combination of factors may be causing the problems.  But a 54.6% completion percentage, which is 46% in the last three weeks, must be improved. 

One word Luck is a freaking ROOKIE... Give him time

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well then wouldnt it be BA who has regressed? he is the one calling the plays getting Luck tore up from the floor up. We run the ball awesome, so what do we do? start running plays that take way to long to develop. even the commentators said the plays take to long to develop. just sitting in the pocket waiting for guys to get open. then BAM, hes hit once again. it is part oline, part Luck...but mainly BA putting them in that postition!!

I wasn't commenting on the idea of "regression". I have no idea. I was responding to a post which stated that the only thing that makes Brady, Manning, Rogers, and Ryan accurate quarterbacks is their o-lines.

 

I didn't like Arians in Pittsburgh and I wasn't particularly thrilled with him coming here, so you won't get any argument from me. Frankly I'm not so sure that he did Peyton any favors when he was his QB coach.

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people need to stop with the david carr syndrome stuff....that's just eye rolling

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I dont think he has regressed, I dont know how he could regress unless he has forgotten what he has been taught or his skills as a QB are not what they used to be, Neither seem to be the case. I think the question is has he PROGRESSED? I think there are many areas one can look at and say yes or no he has or has not. Some things I would look at are

 

1.Luck has the tendecy to be high on many of his passes.-Still does

2.Is he using checkdowns when one is open down field?-Not sll the time, I'd go as far as to say not much

3.Does he either tuck and run or throw the ball away or does he just take a sack when no one is open downfield and the play does not have a designed checkdown (not all pass plays have had designed checkdows)

4.clock management

 

Has he regressed? No

Has he progressed? No, touchdown wise he has but theres more to progression then TD throws

Is it all on Luck? No

Is it all on Arians? No

Is it all on our O Line? No

 

Its all of those things COMBINED at different times

 

All my opinion of course

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I dont think he has regressed, I dont know how he could regress unless he has forgotten what he has been taught or his skills as a QB are not what they used to be, Neither seem to be the case. I think the question is has he PROGRESSED? I think there are many areas one can look at and say yes or no he has or has not. Some things I would look at are

 

1.Luck has the tendecy to be high on many of his passes.-Still does

2.Is he using checkdowns when one is open down field?-Not sll the time, I'd go as far as to say not much

3.Does he either tuck and run or throw the ball away or does he just take a sack when no one is open downfield and the play does not have a designed checkdown (not all pass plays have had designed checkdows)

4.clock management

 

Has he regressed? No

Has he progressed? No, touchdown wise he has but theres more to progression then TD throws

Is it all on Luck? No

Is it all on Arians? No

Is it all on our O Line? No

 

Its all of those things COMBINED at different times

 

All my opinion of course

Solid analysis....

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I think a lot of his overthrows are simply a mechanical issue that can be worked on. It often happens while he is under pressure and changes his arm angle. He also speeds up a bit while under pressure which causes it, to be expected honestly considering the amount of pressure he has faced. I would be more concerned if i seen him making a ton of mental errors and i don't see that. I have heard some say he stares down Reggie too much, and he may at times but i think he does a good job of going through his reads most of the time. He spreads the ball around nicely and thats hard to do if your locked on to one receiver. I would be interested in seeing just how many checkdown options are available per game to Luck. I know Nate Dunlevy did a breakdown of the Lions game a few weeks ago and on most of the passing plays there was no checkdown option available. In fact, most of the time a receiver was no closer then 10-15 yards downfield. It's hard to checkdown frequently if the option is not there.

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I know you will all think I am crazy - but I am thankful and will take in a heartbeat the two touchdowns (and should have been a third except for the Moore fumble on the 1 yrd line) and (0) ZERO INTERCEPTIONS that Andrew had yesterday.  All despite being sacked six times YES SIX SACKS and being pancaked untold others by that ape Watt (which by the way I wish played for us).

 

So I am HAPPY and THANKFUL for Andrew Luck and wouldn't trade him for ALL the RGIII's (very gimpy by the way) in the WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  By the way we could have that choke artist up in Chicago that whines everytime he gets sacked that his neck, shoulder, knee etc hurts and then blames everyone else for what is happening.  At least all of our players take responsibility and works to get better and respects one another.

 

So  GO COLTS  The only Colts that I want to have - I am proud of you!!!   :rock: 

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I know you will all think I am crazy - but I am thankful and will take in a heartbeat the two touchdowns (and should have been a third except for the Moore fumble on the 1 yrd line) and (0) ZERO INTERCEPTIONS that Andrew had yesterday.  All despite being sacked six times YES SIX SACKS and being pancaked untold others by that ape Watt (which by the way I wish played for us).

 

So I am HAPPY and THANKFUL for Andrew Luck and wouldn't trade him for ALL the RGIII's (very gimpy by the way) in the WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  By the way we could have that choke artist up in Chicago that whines everytime he gets sacked that his neck, shoulder, knee etc hurts and then blames everyone else for what is happening.  At least all of our players take responsibility and works to get better and respects one another.

 

So  GO COLTS  The only Colts that I want to have - I am proud of you!!!   :rock: 

I like the positive spin!!!  I approve this message.  :thmup:   Even though I wanted to kick the apes  :corner: yesterday...he is one bad dude....

 

This team plays with heart, accepts their corrective feedback from coaches, and some (Luck specifically as well as Allen) are very hard on themselves!! (Allen missed the block on the punt and was devastated.)

 

Go  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo:  :coltslogo:

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I'm not sure regression is the best word. Maybe the best word as he hasn't progressed as much as some want.

 

Like Gavin said, it's part Luck, it's part Arians/Scheme and it's part OL, which to me  is part OL talent and part scheme. 

 

I am a bit tired of seeing the Peyton crutch used whenever someone says anything that can't be taken as anything but a glowing reference to Luck. It's a bit tired and old, and I don't seem it as an applicable comparison because the league was far different then. 

 

Since people insist on using it, I will add a reference point that compares the two. 

regression.jpg

 

In a comparison of Manning's games from 1-9 and 9-16, it's clear he made improvements, Rating, cmp%, ypa/td/int, Total turnovers/interceptions were decreased.  Each of those groupings showed improvement.

 

The same can't be said for Luck, his rating has dropped, his completion % has dropped, his turnovers & interceptions have increased. I wouldn't want to call it a pure regression even though I can see why someone would argue that as a fact. 

 

 

Maybe it's more of having his growth stunted by this scheme. I'm not sure if it is bad habits that he has developed or what.  Some want to put it all on the offensive line, and that isn't the case. There is enough blame to be shared between Luck/OL/Arians/Scheme.  Yet with a winning record a lot of those issues will be glossed over like they were in the past. 

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5 sacks

 

3 by Watt

 

1 by Barwin

 

1 by Smith

 

I new it would just be a matter of time before Watt got at least 1 and Smith (Reitz could not handle him last year)

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luck internal qb clock is on over drive, he just can't go threw his reads, we almost always have someone open under the LBs for 7-10 yds. once he starts hitting those. there is no stopping this kid.

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I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"
I have three words to describe what is happening - "David Carr Syndrome"

The Texans horrible O-Line is what ruined David Carr's career.

Carr was sacked 76 times his first year.

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why dont we talk about all the great plays he has made hmmmm....

 

People do, and rightly so. However by no means does that mean the large number of negative plays should be ignored.

 

I get the whole "he doesn't have time to be accurate" stuff which is for the most part true but there have been several times where he's had time and either made a bad call or a bad pass. 

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what I dont get is why we dont use our run to set up the pass? if anything helps a sketchy line is its to run the damn ball. be the aggressor! I hope BA is gone after this year. has done awesome stepping in as coach. but I cant stand his play calling and offensive game planning.

 

It seems can only situationally.  We can't just pound it down people throats.  Our o line isn't any better run blocking tha in pass protection. We get stopped in the backfield for negative yards fairly frequently.  This adds to the long down and distance plays.

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Theres more to footbal/life in general then just the positive, Favoring one without the aknowledgement of the other is not a wise or even informed  path
 

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Does this mean that Larry Fitzgerald has "regressed" as a WR....despite the three sardine sandwiches Arizona has at QB?

 

Look....I think we're seeing a fairly normal pattern of ups and downs for a rookie QB, keeping in mind our lofty expectations and the 9-5 record Luck has had a major hand in delivering.

 

This really oughta be revisited 1-2 years from now after we've had a chance to solidify the O-line and the rest of our roster.

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Regressed? I'm just happy he's not in a wheelchair after Sunday. I thought he handled a hostile situation well and showed a lot of growth. He wasn't perfect, but he handled the pressure and hits much better than the other times we faced playoff caliber competition on the road.

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People do, and rightly so. However by no means does that mean the large number of negative plays should be ignored.

 

I get the whole "he doesn't have time to be accurate" stuff which is for the most part true but there have been several times where he's had time and either made a bad call or a bad pass. 

 

Every QB in football sometimes makes bad throws and bad decisions, even Brady and Manning and they are long time veterans. So I guess Im not getting the point. Are you expecting perfection? I've seen Manning have bad games many times over the yrs. with multiple Int's in a game, same with Brady and every other QB in the NFL. It really seems like everything Luck does is being overly scrutinized.

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Every QB in football sometimes makes bad throws and bad decisions, even Brady and Manning and they are long time veterans. So I guess Im not getting the point. Are you expecting perfection? I've seen Manning have bad games many times over the yrs. with multiple Int's in a game, same with Brady and every other QB in the NFL. It really seems like everything Luck does is being overly scrutinized.

I don't know why I even have to point this out, it's pretty obvious: The only reason I bring it up is because I see it more often with Luck than with other QBs, that's why it's a concern. Of course I'm not expecting perfection but I'm not expecting blindness to his flaws. 

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I don't know why I even have to point this out, it's pretty obvious: The only reason I bring it up is because I see it more often with Luck than with other QBs, that's why it's a concern. Of course I'm not expecting perfection but I'm not expecting blindness to his flaws. 

Im not blind to his faults at all. Of course he has some, but I think the majority of the blame should be on the O-line and the system. Plus the fact that he's still adjusting to the NFL and I see nothing to worry about with Luck yet. If he's having these problems in 2 yrs. with an improved O-line, then I might start worrying. Right now though, it's just to early to worry.

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Im not blind to his faults at all. Of course he has some, but I think the majority of the blame should be on the O-line and the system. Plus the fact that he's still adjusting to the NFL and I see nothing to worry about with Luck yet. If he's having these problems in 2 yrs. with an improved O-line, then I might start worrying. Right now though, it's just to early to worry.

 

Well if you didn't put a lot of blame on the O-line then his stats would be completely inexcusable. I was more talking about the times when it's okay to disregard the O-line's influence, the rare occasions when they do actually execute assignments or Luck is out of the pocket. We need to be capitalising on those opportunities rather than wasting them, either through hesitation or a bad throw. I've also not mentioned anything about worrying just yet - they are issues, but I'm certainly not treating them as issues that make me consider whether we've made a horrible mistake in drafting him! However, they're issues I really want to see worked out of his game, the lack of improvement this season is the main concern.

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I wouldn't say he has regressed.  I think he's doing the best he can do against some great pressure and is just getting pounded.  Honestly there isn't a QB in this league that would be playing well with the kind of heat of Luck is facing.  Every play he is either getting hit, sacked, having to move because of pressure or adjust his throwing motion because of pressure.  Very rarely does he just drop straight back and be able to read the defense and make a good throw with no pressure.  If we fix the line and let Luck be able to stand back there and make plays you are going to see Luck's performance jump. 

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We're 9-5 and most likely making the playoffs. IMO, all this talk is mute. We have far exceeded our expectations. Now we are having issues next year. By all means post away!

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I wouldn't say he has regressed.  I think he's doing the best he can do against some great pressure and is just getting pounded.  Honestly there isn't a QB in this league that would be playing well with the kind of heat of Luck is facing.  Every play he is either getting hit, sacked, having to move because of pressure or adjust his throwing motion because of pressure.  Very rarely does he just drop straight back and be able to read the defense and make a good throw with no pressure.  If we fix the line and let Luck be able to stand back there and make plays you are going to see Luck's performance jump. 

Ran out of likes!!

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We're 9-5 and most likely making the playoffs. IMO, all this talk is mute. We have far exceeded our expectations. Now we are having issues next year. By all means post away!

Yes the team has but there is nothing wrong with pointing out Luck has not played well for the past month or so and he hasn't outside of the end of the Lions game.  Now I think if someone is going to point that out it's fair to ask why and the biggest reason why is the line is just not protecting him.  You can still point out flaws and be thrilled with how the season has gone.  I agree that the team has completely surpassed expectations but if we don't get the line fixed we are going to get Luck killed.  I would agree that saying Luck has regressed is a little harsh.  Frankly his performance has gone down when the line started to get really banged up.  I think most, including you and me, would agree the two are related. 

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Well if you didn't put a lot of blame on the O-line then his stats would be completely inexcusable. I was more talking about the times when it's okay to disregard the O-line's influence, the rare occasions when they do actually execute assignments or Luck is out of the pocket. We need to be capitalising on those opportunities rather than wasting them, either through hesitation or a bad throw. I've also not mentioned anything about worrying just yet - they are issues, but I'm certainly not treating them as issues that make me consider whether we've made a horrible mistake in drafting him! However, they're issues I really want to see worked out of his game, the lack of improvement this season is the main concern.

Well you're right, If the O-line was doing a good job, then his stats would be inexcusable, but thats not the case, so Im not even taking that into consideration. His inaccuracy can be attributed to be rushed constantly. I honestly can not remember a time this season where Luck has been able to take a 5 or 7 step drop, go through his progressions, and make a throw without being chased out of the pocket and having to throw on the run.

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Yes the team has but there is nothing wrong with pointing out Luck has not played well for the past month or so and he hasn't outside of the end of the Lions game.  Now I think if someone is going to point that out it's fair to ask why and the biggest reason why is the line is just not protecting him.  You can still point out flaws and be thrilled with how the season has gone.  I agree that the team has completely surpassed expectations but if we don't get the line fixed we are going to get Luck killed. 

If he wasn't such a man beast powered by the neck beard gods themselves, he'd already be toast!! But we keep pointing out that its the line and scheme and others like to believe that it's our ROOKIE qb...

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Well you're right, If the O-line was doing a good job, then his stats would be inexcusable, but thats not the case, so Im not even taking that into consideration. His inaccuracy can be attributed to be rushed constantly. I honestly can not remember a time this season where Luck has been able to take a 5 or 7 step drop, go through his progressions, and make a throw without being chased out of the pocket and having to throw on the run.

 

As far as I'm concerned, Arians is almost as much to blame as the O-line. Vertical playbook and almost no rollouts? Really? 

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If he wasn't such a man beast powered by the neck beard gods themselves, he'd already be toast!! But we keep pointing out that its the line and scheme and others like to believe that it's our ROOKIE qb...

I think Luck has had a hand in it but it's okay he's a rookie that's what rookie's do.  I think sometimes people forget if your name isn't Donnie Avery or Reggie Wayne and you are playing a skill poistion for the Colts offense you are pretty much a rookie and rookies make mistakes.  

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