First, let me start off by stating that I am the biggest Luck supporter. I work at Stanford and have watched him play all throughout his college career and couldn't be more happy that of all of the NFL teams he could have joined, he joined the Colts, my favorite NFL team.
This is not meant to be a thread to gripe about Luck; rather, a thread to honestly evaluate his progress.
In order to honestly evaluate his progress, I must first admit that the offensive system does not suit his style of play. If it wasn't for his incredible ability to avoid the rush without taking his eyes off downfield, he wouldn't complete any passes. I will also admit that we have one of the worst O-lines in the entire league. And lastly, I will admit that he is a rookie and so is his offensive supporting cast of receivers and TEs, which will usually lend itself to making mistakes.
Luck's low completion percentage is an issue, despite the afformentioned reasons. We can claim that the system calls for numerous downfield throws, but in reality, there are numerous shorter routes that Luck simply dismisses, opting and waiting for the downfield completion. If we are to honestly evaluate Luck, we have to admit that he can make some better decisions. He has regressed in this area tremendously over the last 4 games. He's now either at or below 50% completion over this span, which includes games against the defenses of the Bills, Lions, and Titans, no worldbeaters. Is this okay, either with Luck or Arians? Something has to change, right? Furthermore, there is no area on the field where he averages greater than 65.7% completion (this happens to be throws behind the LOS). He averages 61.9% completion when throwing 1-10 yards past the LOS, which is still very low.
Luck has been pressured, more than any QB in the league. Thankfully, he is very good at avoiding the rush. That's a great strength, but at times it is negated by Luck's innacuracy. He'll avoid the pressure, step up and throw the ball well over the intended receiver's head, sometimes by 10 feet over. Sometimes it will be well behind the receiver. What ever it is, I get excited to see that he avoids the pressure, only to see him make a bad throw. I wish he'd be more accurate. (I am aware of the relentless pressure, but once it's avoided, it's simply completing the pass, which is an issue here). This isn't referring to when he's faced with pressure and throws in the face of pressure, which is difficult for any QB. This is referring to after avoiding pressure, or sometimes standing in the pocket and missing the open receiver.
The amount of turnovers for Luck is also too high. I am sure that everyone would agree with me that some of the INT's are okay because Luck has to attempt to make plays in order for the team to win. So it's a byproduct of the Colts being too reliant on Luck. However, there are times when he could've made better throws and better decisions. He's had numerous 3-interception games.
Some will be upset with this evaluation, and that's fine. Please know that I know all of the reasons why he's struggled some, but that doesn't mean that Luck is beyond criticism. I would like to know how you would evaluate him so far.
Overall, I think he's amazing, but wish he would do some things better or Arian's does some things differently. I wouldn't trade him for anyone, and would choose him #1 all over again if that were possible.