A Steelers loss increases our chances. [Merge]

[#12]

If the Jets lose one game they have 8 loses and Jets are eliminated.

Yes.

[1959Colts]

and I keep telling you it doesn't I have run this both on yahoo and ESPN and you can get a scenario where the Colts miss out with two AFC North teams in the playoffs.  You can have three teams go to the playoffs from one division.  This happened with the AFC South in 2007 when the Colts, Jags, and Titans all made it. 

\

It can happen as in 2007 that three teams make it from the same division.

But not if their final records are tied.

As would be the case this year.

[Jules]

What the league wants is for somehow Sanchez to get benched or hurt. Then Tebow can lead them to the 6th seed and the legend is reborn......

[1959Colts]

If the Jets lose?

Then mathematically, that only leaves the Colts, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers left.

Strength of schedule would not matter.

There is no way that the two wildcards could come from the North.

The tiebreaker first eliminates all but one from the North.

[1959Colts]

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1.The division champion with the best record.

2.The division champion with the second-best record.

3.The division champion with the third-best record.

4.The division champion with the fourth-best record.

5.The Wild Card club with the best record.

6.The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9.Best net points in common games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9.Best net points in common games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1.If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

2.If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1.Head-to-head, if applicable.

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

4.Strength of victory.

5.Strength of schedule.

6.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

7.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best net points in conference games.

9.Best net points in all games.

10.Best net touchdowns in all games.

11.Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9.Best net points in conference games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

[GoColts8818]

The first wildcard tiebreaker eliminates all but one team from NFC North.

The problem become you have to first break the tie between the Bengals, Colts, and Ravens.  Once you break that tie to decide who would be the fifth seed you then have to break the tie between the two remaining teams to decide the six seed. 

 

Here is the key part

 

"Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format."

 

So the Bengals would just be eliminated from the fifth seed but not from the six seed.  Pretty much when looking at the six seed you are starting over.

 

The Ravens beat us on the tie breaker because they would be 8-4 vs. the AFC compared to what would be our 6-6 AFC record.  So the Ravens win the five seed.  Then we go to the sixth seed.  You look at the Colts and Bengals and both would be 6-6 in the AFC so you go to common foes and both teams would be 3-2 so you go to the next tie breaker which is strength of victory which appears to go in the Bengals advantage. 

 

This is such a remote scenario that I really think we are putting a lot of effort into something that will not matter. 

[#12]

If the Jets lose?

Then mathematically, that only leaves the Colts, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers left.

Strength of schedule would not matter.

There is no way that the two wildcards could come from the North.

The tiebreaker first eliminates all but one from the North.

I don't believe that's not how it works, 1959.  The first step eliminates the others, but after you decide the winner of the two, you return to the top and start over.  It doesn't eliminate the two, putting the Colts in.

[Malakai432]

But, we have to win, we control our own destiny vs. Brady Quinn.

Either him or Ricky Stanzi, . Unfortunately sometimes the Colts make unknown or bad players look like superstars, pro bowlers or gods. Let us hope this Sunday isn't the case.

[GoColts8818]

The first wildcard tiebreaker eliminates all but one team from NFC North.

Yes from discussion for the five seed you start back over to break the tie from the six seed you don't break both ties at once.

[Jules]

Either him or Ricky Stanzi, . Unfortunately sometimes the Colts make unknown or bad players look like superstars, pro bowlers or gods. Let us hope this Sunday isn't the case.

There is hope I think. I looked at a few of the recent Chiefs games and yes they are bad, they are really really bad. And getting banged up too it seems.

We can do this. We CAN conquer the Chiefs. It could be worse, what if the must win was vs. the 49ers?

[1959Colts]

I don't believe that's not how it works, 1959.  The first step eliminates the others, but after you decide the winner of the two, you return to the top and start over.  It doesn't eliminate the two, putting the Colts in.

OK. So theoretically, The Steelers win the AFC North and

The Colts, Ravens and Bengals are all tied at 9-7

Here is the Wild Card Tie Breaker.

Three or More Clubs

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2

Thats it. Step 1 eliminates one of the teams and the Colts are in.

[GoColts8818]

OK. So theoritcally, The Steelers win the AFC North and

The Colts, Ravens and Bengals are all tied at 9-7

Here is the Wild Card Tie Breaker.Three or More Clubs

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2

"Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format."

 

In other words once you establish that the Ravens are in you have to start back over to break the tie between the Colts and Bengals for the last playoff spot. 

[#12]

In other words once you establish that the Ravens are in you have to start back over to break the tie between the Colts and Bengals for the last playoff spot. 

Exactly.

[Malakai432]

It could be worse, what if the must win was vs. the 49ers?

That would SUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Especially if It was @ SF.

[1959Colts]

No the tie breaker eliminates all but the highest ranked team within a division.

Eliminates.

[GoColts8818]

Exactly.

and that's where the strength of Victory would come in.  The Colts and Bengals would remain tied after conference record and common foes.  The Bengals already lead the Colts in that department and the Colts could not increase this as in this scenario the Colts would have to lose out. 

[GoColts8818]

No the tie breaker eliminates all but the highest ranked team within a division.

Eliminates.

For that step only if you keep reading the rules it says you can only break one tie a time.  Once you break the first tie it says you have to revert to step one to break any remaining ties. 

 

So what you are basicly doing is breaking two ties.

 

First tie for the fifth seed you knock the Bengals out because the Ravens already win the tie with them.  So you are looking at Colts and Ravens.  Ravens win that tie.

 

Then you go to the six seed and once again you have the Colts and Bengals tied.  You have to start the whole thing over only looking at those two teams and the Colts lose that tie breaker in this scenario. 

 

This is why a loss by the Jets alone does not put us in the playoffs. 

[1959Colts]

So if you establish that the Ravens get in.

Then that would eliminate Cincinnati.

[GoColts8818]

So if you establish that the Ravens get in.

Then that would eliminate Cincinnati.

For the fifth seed ONLY.

 

You start over to break the tie between the remaining teams for the six seed which would be the Colts and Bengals and you look at head to head tie breakers and in this scenario the Bengals win that tie breaker. 

[FireJimCaldwell]

The Ravens are already in the playoffs.  

[1959Colts]

How could breaking a tie within the AFC North division determine the 5th seed?

When the Colts would not even be factored into the equation?

[GoColts8818]

How could breaking a tie within the AFC North division determine the 5th seed?

When the Colts would not even be factored into the equation?

What step one is saying is first you have to break any division ties.  Once you break that tie you then break the tie between the division team and the remaining team which would be the Colts.  The Ravens win both of those ties so they would get the fifth seed.

 

You then have to start to tie breaking process over again to determine the six seed between the remaining teams which would be the Bengals and Colts.  In this scenario the Bengals win.  It's why the Colts needed a Jets & Bengals loss going into this weekend to lock up a playoff spot and not just a Jets loss. 

[1959Colts]

What we are talking about has happened before.

If there is a tie for wildcard within a division.

Only one team from that division goes to playoffs.

The other teams are eliminated.

[1959Colts]

OK I guess what you said makes sense?

Wow!

[FireJimCaldwell]

What we are talking about has happened before.

If there is a tie for wildcard within a division.

Only one team from that division goes to playoffs.

The other teams are eliminated.

I would disagree with that.. You have to follow the tie breakers...

 

Once you pit the North team & the Colts, you break the tie.. The winner of that tie goes to the playoffs, the loser gets paired back up with the other team, and you break that tie.

Step1

Basically if it comes down to Team AFC north A & the Colts, If the Colts win that tie breaker, then it is the Colts @ 5, & Team A @ 6.

 

Step 2

If team A wins the tiebreaker vs. the Colts, then it's Team A  @ # 5,

 

Step 3 and then the Colts go through the tie breaking process with team B. with the winner of that tie-breaking process also making the playoffs. 

 

I used team A & B to represent the North teams so that adding Steelers/Bengals or Ravens to the process wouldn't add to the confusion.

[GoColts8818]

What we are talking about has happened before.

If there is a tie for wildcard within a division.

Only one team from that division goes to playoffs.

The other teams are eliminated.

You are trying to break both ties at once it doesn't work that way.  You break the five seed tie and then you break the six seed tie.  You have to look at them completely different. 

 

Start with the Five seed.  You go to three teams and you see you have a tie within the division so you have to see who wins the tie between those two teams first.  The Ravens would so the Bengals would be eliminated for the fifth seed.  You then take the remaining team which would be the Ravens and compare them to the other remaining teams which in this case would be the Colts and you have to break that tie.  The Ravens win this tie breaker on a better AFC record so the Colts would be eliminated from the fifth seed.  That's why you can't get caught up on the eliminated word because the Colts would be eliminated too you are only eliminated from that tie breaker.

 

You now have to break the six seed tie breaker.  The two teams left would be the Colts and Bengals.  The Bengals would win the tie breaker over the Colts in this scenario and we would be out. 

 

Again we are spending a lot of energy talking about something that in all likely hood isn't going to happen.  If we can't beat KC with maybe Ricky Stanzi at QB we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. 

[#12]

Okay, it's pretty simple.  The Bengals would have us 3-2 vs. 2-2 in common games.  Not sure why both simulators say otherwise, but no, one Jets loss would not do it for us.  We would still need a win or Bengals loss.

[1959Colts]

So if the Jets and Cinn lose.

We are in?

[GoColts8818]

So if the Jets and Cinn lose.

We are in?

Yes.  That or if we just beat KC.  I am personally pulling for the later.

[#12]

So if the Jets and Cinn lose.

We are in?

Yes.  The simulators were apparently wrong.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Again we are spending a lot of energy talking about something that in all likely hood isn't going to happen.  If we can't beat KC with maybe Ricky Stanzi at QB we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. 

truth

[GoColts8818]

Okay, it's pretty simple.  The Bengals would have us 3-2 vs. 2-2 in common games.  Not sure why both simulators say otherwise, but no, one Jets loss would not do it for us.  We would still need a win or Bengals loss.

I had it 3-2 for both teams in common games.

 

They beat Browns, Jags, and KC and lost to Browns and Dolphins.

 

We beat Browns, Jags, Dolphins and lost to Jags and KC. 

 

With that said I have never been sure how it works when you have games with division teams.  If it gets passed that you get into strength of victory and strength of schedule and what not which is why I think it starts to matter who the Jets lose too and what not. 

[#12]

I had it 3-2 for both teams in common games.

 

They beat Browns, Jags, and KC and lost to Browns and Dolphins.

 

We beat Browns, Jags, Dolphins and lost to Jags and KC. 

 

With that said I have never been sure how it works when you have games with division teams.  If it gets passed that you get into strength of victory and strength of schedule and what not which is why I think it starts to matter who the Jets lose too and what not. 

You're right, I screwed up, forgetting the second Jags game.  So, it has to be strength of victory.  Not sure why the simulators are giving that to us.  The Bengals have it easily.

 

Bottom line:  we would need a win or Jets loss + Bengals loss.

[GoColts8818]

You're right, I screwed up, forgetting the second Jags game.  So, it has to be strength of victory.  Not sure why the simulators are giving that to us.

The might just be discounting strength of victory because that is hard to predict and going right to strength of schedule which is why you have to have the Jets lose to  the Chargers but not the Titans or Bills and the Raiders beats the Panthers for it to work and what not. 

 

Again let's just beat KC and not have to worry about this. 

[deedub75]

redskins and cowboys play in the finale so both cant win out

 

 

You're right!  Maybe they were saying if all 3 of them finished 9-7. 

[1959Colts]

Thanks for the explanations.

[#12]

These playoff scenarios are confusing, especially considering the possible 3 way ties in the AFC North, and they fact they play each other the final two weeks. 

 

Last week's scenarios:

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Indianapolis clinches a playoff spot with:
1) IND win OR2) IND tie + CIN loss or tie OR
3) IND tie + PIT loss or tie OR
4) IND tie + BAL win OR
5) NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss OR
6) NYJ loss or tie + BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

 

This week's:

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Indianapolis clinches a playoff spot with:
1) IND win OR

2) IND tie + CIN loss or tie OR
3) IND tie + PIT loss or tie OR
4) IND tie + BAL win OR
5) NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss OR
6) NYJ loss or tie + BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

 

Okay, so now with the Jets loss, why wouldn't we be in with a Pittsburgh loss?  If Pittsburgh loses, no one else can get to 9 wins.  And if a Pittsburgh loss or a Bengals loss gets us in, we're in.  They play each other.   Something is wrong here.  I do not believe a Bengals loss gets us in.  The simulators and published scenarios both appear to be wrong.  I believe we should actually be cheering for the Bengals this week; cheering for a Steelers loss.

 

If I am missing something, which is entirely possible, someone please correct me. 

[dw49]

These playoff scenarios are confusing, especially considering the possible 3 way ties in the AFC North, and they fact they play each other the final two weeks. 

 

Last week's scenarios:

 

 

This week's:

 

 

Okay, so now with the Jets loss, why wouldn't we be in with a Pittsburgh loss?  If Pittsburgh loses, no one else can get to 9 wins.  And if a Pittsburgh loss or a Bengals loss gets us in, we're in.  They play each other.   Something is wrong here.  I do not believe a Bengals loss gets us in.  The simulators and published scenarios both appear to be wrong.  I believe we should actually be cheering for the Bengals this week; cheering for a Steelers loss.

 

If I am missing something, which is entirely possible, someone please correct me. 

No you are not missing anything. A Pitt loss means only Balt Cin  and IND can reach 9 wins. One team wins the division and the other two are the wild cards.

 

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Colts clinch playoff berth with:

1) Win or tie OR

2) PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie

 

 

This is from what I posted earlier today.

[1959Colts]

At least the jets are out.

[#12]

I figured out the mystery as to why a Bengals loss + Jets loss would have gotten us in last week, but a Jets loss + Bengals loss next week does not.  It was true, and this is why:  counterintuitively, it would have kept the Steelers out of any potential three-way tie, not the Bengals.  Say the Bengals lose to the Eagles while the Steelers beat Dallas.  The Bengals are 7-7, the Steelers 8-6.  What needs to happen for a three way tie?  The Bengals would have to beat the Steelers and Ravens while the Steelers would need to beat the Browns.  Under this scenario, the Bengals would actually be in a better position with one more AFC win while the Steelers would be the team out in a three way tie with one less conference win, beating Dallas instead of the Bengals.  So, either the Bengals wouldn't get to nine wins or if they do, the Steelers would be the odd team out.  So yes, a Bengals loss last week would have clinched for the Colts.  Fast forward to this week.  A Bengals loss wouldn't produce the same result.  Now, in a three way tie, all three teams would finish with identical conference records.  But, as we've learned, if not technically, the Colts are already essentially in anyway. 

 

These three-to-four-way scenarios, with three teams from the same division all playing each other the final two weeks are confusing, to say the least.