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If Andrew breaks the passing record for rookies, how far will he Go past it?


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#1 PrincetonTiger

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:03 PM

By how many yards will Andrew break the Rookie passing Record?
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#2 oldunclemark

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:11 PM

what record are we referring to and do you want to count regular season and playoff games?

#3 Dudley Smith

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:16 PM

Since most people believe he will break it during the @Texans game, and he will have 2 1/2 games left after breaking it I would assume, I would think he will break it in excess of around 600-700 yards on the regular season. More if you are also counting playoffs (assuming we get there of course.)

#4 Stephen

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:30 PM

prob around 4400 reg season yards

#5 oldunclemark

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:32 PM

Since most people believe he will break it during the @Texans game, and he will have 2 1/2 games left after breaking it I would assume, I would think he will break it in excess of around 600-700 yards on the regular season. More if you are also counting playoffs (assuming we get there of course.)



'it'?

#6 21isSuperman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:42 PM

For comparison's sake, Cam Newton threw for 4051 yards last year (253 yards per game). Andrew Luck is currently at 3596 yards (300 yards per game), which means at his current pace, Luck will throw for 4800 yards. Of course, I don't expect that to happen. He is also on pace to break Cam's record next week, when we play in Houston.
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#7 oldunclemark

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:46 PM

For comparison's sake, Cam Newton threw for 4051 yards last year (253 yards per game). Andrew Luck is currently at 3596 yards (300 yards per game), which means at his current pace, Luck will throw for 4800 yards. Of course, I don't expect that to happen. He is also on pace to break Cam's record next week, when we play in Houston.



5,000 is in reach because Houston will take big leads on us twice,....forcing Luck to throw...

..and the Texans will play 'prevent' allowing big yard totals... and we have to do whatever it takes to beat KC....

Luck may throw 50 times in that one......

He's got a very good shot to reach 5,000

#8 21isSuperman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:58 PM

5,000 is in reach because Houston will take big leads on us twice,....forcing Luck to throw...

..and the Texans will play 'prevent' allowing big yard totals... and we have to do whatever it takes to beat KC....

Luck may throw 50 times in that one......

He's got a very good shot to reach 5,000

It's possible, but I don't think it will happen. 5000 yards is a big feat and offenses tend to start slowing down this time of year.
When Bob Sanders executes a push up, he does not push himself up. He pushes the world down.
When Bob Sanders was 12, a cobra bit him in the leg. After 4 days of excruciating pain, the cobra died.
Tom Brady can throw a football pretty far. Bob Sanders can throw Tom Brady even farther.
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#9 chad72

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:13 PM

I thought this thread would have been started by Stephen, but good job keeping up PrincetonTiger. :)

#10 oldunclemark

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:18 PM

It's possible, but I don't think it will happen. 5000 yards is a big feat and offenses tend to start slowing down this time of year.


Really..

I always thought the other way....Offenses seem to pick up late in the year because defensive secondaries wear down and you cant replace injured guys as easily..

After Houston gets up 3 TDs on us...they'll be giving Luck short passes/..

#11 21isSuperman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:35 PM

Really..

I always thought the other way....Offenses seem to pick up late in the year because defensive secondaries wear down and you cant replace injured guys as easily..

After Houston gets up 3 TDs on us...they'll be giving Luck short passes/..

From what I've seen, they slow down. The 2007 Pats started out the season tearing teams apart, but slowed down by season's end. Same thing with the 2004 Colts. I think it's because coaches start to want to save their big plays and players for the playoffs, so they start to play a little more conservatively
When Bob Sanders executes a push up, he does not push himself up. He pushes the world down.
When Bob Sanders was 12, a cobra bit him in the leg. After 4 days of excruciating pain, the cobra died.
Tom Brady can throw a football pretty far. Bob Sanders can throw Tom Brady even farther.
Please make sure to read the Forum Rules before posting or PM a mod if you have any questions

#12 PrincetonTiger

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:36 PM

From what I've seen, they slow down. The 2007 Pats started out the season tearing teams apart, but slowed down by season's end. Same thing with the 2004 Colts. I think it's because coaches start to want to save their big plays and players for the playoffs, so they start to play a little more conservatively


agreed
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#13 oldunclemark

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:14 PM

From what I've seen, they slow down. The 2007 Pats started out the season tearing teams apart, but slowed down by season's end. Same thing with the 2004 Colts. I think it's because coaches start to want to save their big plays and players for the playoffs, so they start to play a little more conservatively


Do you think there's any chance the Colts and Bruce A. turn conservative at Houston and KC?

#14 21isSuperman

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 06:53 PM

Do you think there's any chance the Colts and Bruce A. turn conservative at Houston and KC?

Depends on the situation. I could see it happening, but I could also see situations where they keep going. If we fall behind to Houston by 25 points, I could see us maybe taking Luck out and letting Stanton get a few reps or even just going to the run more often. Say at KC we go up big, then I could see us going more conservative to end the game
When Bob Sanders executes a push up, he does not push himself up. He pushes the world down.
When Bob Sanders was 12, a cobra bit him in the leg. After 4 days of excruciating pain, the cobra died.
Tom Brady can throw a football pretty far. Bob Sanders can throw Tom Brady even farther.
Please make sure to read the Forum Rules before posting or PM a mod if you have any questions

#15 SteelCityColt

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 07:36 PM

Do you think there's any chance the Colts and Bruce A. turn conservative at Houston and KC?


Do we know how to play conservative? We do seem to play better when behind rather than ahead and forced into being aggressive.

#16 superrep1967

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 07:47 PM

prob around 4400 reg season yards

If he throws for 300 yds a game in next 4 he will have 4800 hundred yards more than Peyton ever threw in a season. Because 300 is what he is averaging for the season.

#17 dgambill

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:13 PM

The real record that might get broke this year is the receiving yards. Calvin Johnson is very close to breaking Jerry Rice's most yards receiving in a season of 1848. He basically needs 100 yds a game to do it. Very achievable! The rookie record to me is pretty meaningless. The league is totally different than it was even 5 yrs ago...much less than 10 to 15 when Peyton started and then 20 yrs even before that. The rules have all changed...there is no more fear for rookies....they can't be touched basically. Also with the emphasis on not allowing defenders to touch the receivers more than 5 yds its not even the same game anymore. Peyton has benefited in the second half of his career on these rule changes and Luck will benefit from the beginning. Not saying it isn't hard but some records are achieved and others are broken by default. Just like Marino's and Favres records. Never-the-less Lucks record won't last long either...his W/L record is the one that is something to be touted though.

#18 Andy

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 10:16 PM

He's on pace to break it by about 775 yards.

Personally, I think he'll beat it by about 650 yards (in order of games coming up: 240 + 332 + 265 + 313 = 1,150 yards)

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#19 SilentHill

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 10:37 PM

Shouldn't this be "When" he breaks the rookie record not "if"?

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#20 Warhorse

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:24 AM

By at least 7200 inches....or 0.1136364 miles.

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#21 funktacious2

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:38 AM

400-500

#22 FanFromtheWasteland

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 10:45 AM

The real record that might get broke this year is the receiving yards. Calvin Johnson is very close to breaking Jerry Rice's most yards receiving in a season of 1848. He basically needs 100 yds a game to do it. Very achievable! The rookie record to me is pretty meaningless. The league is totally different than it was even 5 yrs ago...much less than 10 to 15 when Peyton started and then 20 yrs even before that. The rules have all changed...there is no more fear for rookies....they can't be touched basically. Also with the emphasis on not allowing defenders to touch the receivers more than 5 yds its not even the same game anymore. Peyton has benefited in the second half of his career on these rule changes and Luck will benefit from the beginning. Not saying it isn't hard but some records are achieved and others are broken by default. Just like Marino's and Favres records. Never-the-less Lucks record won't last long either...his W/L record is the one that is something to be touted though.



Wasn't the rookie passing record just set last year? How much has the league changed in a year?

#23 Warhawk

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 11:16 AM

I would err on the high side if I were guessing because of the following reasons:

1. Luck's average yards per game over the last 6 games is about 40 yards more than his average over the first 6 games (though his attempts have stayed pretty much the same)
2. Houston is having some problems on pass defense lately, giving up 300+ to Henne and Locker and 400+ to Stafford. They are ranked 19th in the league in pass defense, but 2nd in run defense.
3. The Colts will likely have to pass a lot against Houston due to the scoreboard, so in addition to being the right way to attack Houston, it's also likely to be necessary.
4. 3 of the last 4 games will be played indoors (2 at home, 1 in Houston).

#24 braveheartcolt

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 11:57 AM

The real record that might get broke this year is the receiving yards. Calvin Johnson is very close to breaking Jerry Rice's most yards receiving in a season of 1848. He basically needs 100 yds a game to do it. Very achievable! The rookie record to me is pretty meaningless. The league is totally different than it was even 5 yrs ago...much less than 10 to 15 when Peyton started and then 20 yrs even before that. The rules have all changed...there is no more fear for rookies....they can't be touched basically. Also with the emphasis on not allowing defenders to touch the receivers more than 5 yds its not even the same game anymore. Peyton has benefited in the second half of his career on these rule changes and Luck will benefit from the beginning. Not saying it isn't hard but some records are achieved and others are broken by default. Just like Marino's and Favres records. Never-the-less Lucks record won't last long either...his W/L record is the one that is something to be touted though.


Pure nonsense sir. You intimate the rookie QB 'records' are meaningless due to the change of rules, yet state the the receiving record is of value? Surely if the QB's are helpedso much, then ipso facto, 'receiving' must be aided as well.....

Beating Rice's record is clearly significant, but your rationale to play down the rookie record is weak.
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#25 SteelCityColt

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:54 PM

Pure nonsense sir. You intimate the rookie QB 'records' are meaningless due to the change of rules, yet state the the receiving record is of value? Surely if the QB's are helpedso much, then ipso facto, 'receiving' must be aided as well.....

Beating Rice's record is clearly significant, but your rationale to play down the rookie record is weak.


Well put, and as another poster pointed out as it was only set last year it's more relevant than those set when the game well less acquiescing to the pass game.

#26 PrincetonTiger

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 12:55 PM

Shouldn't this be "When" he breaks the rookie record not "if"?


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#27 dgambill

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 03:51 PM

What I was simply saying is that passing yd records aren't what they used to be. To me Marino was the greatest pure passing qb to ever play and in an era where the rules didn't favor the offense. IMO Lucks record will likely be broken again next year and in the years to come. I also don't think passing yds equate to a great season by a qb. Manning and Brady have put up several seasons that were much more impressive then any of those that went over 5000 last year. I mean you can throw for 5,000 yds and also throw 30 ints and that isn't impressive to me. What Luck is doing is DEFINATELY impressive but what I'm saying is that it is common now. The league continues to evolve to favor qbs every single year with rule changes and how they inforce it. Pretty much now if you sack the qb you have a 50/50 chance of getting a penalty. Everytime someone goes down they cry for a penalty flag. Look at Peyton getting folded in half by the Redskins years back..there is nothing like that now. Look at older qbs getting picked up and body slammed...there is no fear playing the position anymore.

All I was saying was the record Luck has helped lead us to is the truely great feat...not the passing yds. Besides I would say his feet have made almost as many big plays as his arm with all his short yardage td runs and first down runs. Cam broke it last year, Luck this year, and in the next 5 yrs it will probably be broken a time or two again. I just don't see it as a big deal.

Yes the Jerry Rice record is just as much a result of the rules change as well....but that record hasn't been approached since 95. Thats a bigger story to me. Any times a record of Jerry Rice's comes down that is huge. I'm sad to see the league change soo much but it is what it is. Some times it feels like I'm watching an arena league game and it makes me sick. When completely avg qbs like Matt Flynn can throw for 500yds and 6 tds you know something is wrong. I enjoyed watching teams grind it out...earn every yd and when they scored it was an accomplishment.

To me the fact that Luck is leading us to the playoffs is the big deal. TBH I completely expected him to break the record before the season. I will also say RG3's season in Washington has been just as impressive if not more because of the efficiency he has played with. I would hate to have to vote for ROY this year....going to be a tough call. RG3, Luck, and Wilson all deserve it.






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