Quarterbacks on Money Down(3rd down)

[Qwiz]

This year? He's turned the ball over a lot and is to blame for some of their loses.

He leads the league in TD passes and has thrown 16 ints. Not anything to brag about (turnover wise) but his defense is indeed one of if not the worst in the league. I do agree that the best should find a way to win...but sometimes the defense is just so horrendous that it's impossible, no matter how well you do. The reason a few quarterbacks only have one ring (or none) when they should have many more.

[MR. Blueblood]

Just my .02

Luck was drafted by the team that was the worst in the league last year. A team that many thought would be one of the worst teams in the league this year. In a conference that is considered the weaker of the 2 and a division that only has Houston as a really good team. He is still behind a horrible O-line, and he still has next to no run game that opposing defenses need to concern themselves about. Even though he has made many turnovers (some of them his fault, some of them the fault of poor O-line protection, some of them tipped balls and defenses making good plays) he has still managed to get this team in prime position for the playoffs. All while learning an entirely new offense, and being "helped" by a fairly pedestrian defense.

RGIII gets drafted to a better team than the Colts last year, and with the addition of RGIII were talked about being playoffs caliber (seeing as how they beat the Giants twice last year with Grossman of all people leading the way) They are in what is considered the stronger of the 2 conferences and a normally strong NFC East that isn't very good this year as the Eagles, and Cowboys stink up the place on the regular this year)The Redskins have a strong run game and an O-line that isn't as poor as the Colts. RGIII pretty much has an identical offense that he ran in college thus making his transition much easier. He is the #1 QB in the league at pass attempts using play action.

That's just my take on the situation so take it for what it's worth. Luck has had to do more with less this season than RGIII has. The fact that this team is in the driver's seat for the #5 seed is amazing and something that very few people including much of this fan base had thought would happen. While he's not the flashy pick and the media darling that RGIII is, he is the only QB drafted #1 overall that has a winning record in his first season. To me that speaks volumes to why he deserves to be ROTY.

[Case]

Excuse me? I believe this thread refers to 3rd down as the money down. The only reason you aren't getting on the money down is because you don't have to. It would be highly advantageous for a team to face fewer third downs because it means fewer chances for punts and field goals and more chances for third downs.

Irrelevant when the Redskins face the fewest third downs in the NFL anyway.

excuuuuusssee me??

Ok if rg3 has fewer 3rd down attempts that means he has fewer chances to miss those thirds down therefor not hurting his 3rd down %. Like if I take 5 free throws I might make 5/5 and if i take 20 I'm going to miss a few so me having more attempts would hurt my %. This stat does apply to rg3 no matter how much you don't want it to. The stat shows that when rg3 is passing for a 1st down on 3rd down he doesn't do well. That's the stat no matter how many attempts he does or doesn't have.

How well do you think rg3 would do without one of the best ground games in the nfl? How would be do throwing it as many times as luck has? Luck has thrown it like 180 more times than rg3.

[Case]

Just my .02

Luck was drafted by the team that was the worst in the league last year. A team that many thought would be one of the worst teams in the league this year. In a conference that is considered the weaker of the 2 and a division that only has Houston as a really good team. He is still behind a horrible O-line, and he still has next to no run game that opposing defenses need to concern themselves about. Even though he has made many turnovers (some of them his fault, some of them the fault of poor O-line protection, some of them tipped balls and defenses making good plays) he has still managed to get this team in prime position for the playoffs. All while learning an entirely new offense, and being "helped" by a fairly pedestrian defense.

RGIII gets drafted to a better team than the Colts last year, and with the addition of RGIII were talked about being playoffs caliber (seeing as how they beat the Giants twice last year with Grossman of all people leading the way) They are in what is considered the stronger of the 2 conferences and a normally strong NFC East that isn't very good this year as the Eagles, and Cowboys stink up the place on the regular this year)The Redskins have a strong run game and an O-line that isn't as poor as the Colts. RGIII pretty much has an identical offense that he ran in college thus making his transition much easier. He is the #1 QB in the league at pass attempts using play action.

That's just my take on the situation so take it for what it's worth. Luck has had to do more with less this season than RGIII has. The fact that this team is in the driver's seat for the #5 seed is amazing and something that very few people including much of this fan base had thought would happen. While he's not the flashy pick and the media darling that RGIII is, he is the only QB drafted #1 overall that has a winning record in his first season. To me that speaks volumes to why he deserves to be ROTY.

You made some great points in this post.

[IndyBarb]

And that's fair enough, you should be 9-3 and I give the Colts all the credit in the world for that. I'm not here to discredit Andrew Luck and his accomplishments at all. It's funny, though; another Colts fan in another thread posted that Vince Young's rookie record should be ignored because no individual player wins a game.

If you are not here to discredit Andrew, then why are you here?

[HtownColt]

Man Luck is right up there with Peyton Manning. But Tom Brady is in a class of his own over 50%

[John Dee]

My drunk blind eye could see that from week 2 or 3 that Luck simply has an "it" factor.

I personally hate the "it" factor talk... but.. Manning had it, Harbaugh had it for a year, and Luck has it.

I have posted the 3rd down percentage for Indy and other teams.... to my nausea..

Once again...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvs

I mean the BIG downs... .. Golly a rookie is really getting it done....

heeh...

[John Dee]

Man Luck is right up there with Peyton Manning. But Tom Brady is in a class of his own over 50%

I will totally agree.. BUT, Gronk hurt, Elderman hurt, .... TB is my FF QB and i am worried...

heeh..

[Matugi]

If you are not here to discredit Andrew, then why are you here?

Because I'm always interested to hear what fans of other teams have to say about my favorite team?

[Case]

Because I'm always interested to hear what fans of other teams have to say about my favorite team?

Btw luck has attempted 164 and rg3 130.

[mjiztight2345]

You ignored my ENTIRE point. These stats are hardly relevant for comparison because RG3 is hardly ever in third down situations compared to Luck because the Redskins are vastly superior to the Colts on first and second down. It's like trying to argue that Macs are better than PCs because PCs get more viruses: yes, this is true, but it's not because the software is greatly inferior, but simply because PCs have a much larger user base.

Not that I am advocating one QB over another (although I have my opinion), however, your point is moot due to the fact that the statistic is presented as a percentage which would already take into account the difference between the number of times each quarterback has been in the situation (the denominator).

Your computer analogy misses just the same as your original point. To use your analogy; nobody is saying that Macs are better than PCs because PCs get more viruses, they are saying that Macs are better than PCs because the percentage of PCs infected are greater than with Macs.

[oldunclemark]

just like it was with peyton. 3rd & 10 equals no problem. it's what separates the good ones from the great ones

3rd down production doesnt mean what it once did because teams throw so much now...

I dont think anyone keeps this stat but I'd like to know what QBs do when they throw on 1st down...when you face mostly base defenses

Might be revealing

[PrincetonTiger]

interesting

[SaySomething]

The great qbs find a way. You could say a lot of teams could be 9-3 or 8-4 right now but they aren't.

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

[IndyBarb]

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballo...m/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

perhaps you would not be so upset if you would just quit "lurking".

[Matugi]

Not that I am advocating one QB over another (although I have my opinion), however, your point is moot due to the fact that the statistic is presented as a percentage which would already take into account the difference between the number of times each quarterback has been in the situation (the denominator).

Your computer analogy misses just the same as your original point. To use your analogy; nobody is saying that Macs are better than PCs because PCs get more viruses, they are saying that Macs are better than PCs because the percentage of PCs infected are greater than with Macs.

Fair point for the first.

The second, however, is an argument on context, and nothing else. It's entirely different situation: much as the Redskins aren't required to be excellent on third downs, Mac owners don't have to worry about viruses because nobody bothers to make them for Macs because of the smaller userbase. While Mac OS and Windows are just as proficient and deficient as each other, the reason why one gets so many more viruses than the other relies completely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself.

[The Fish]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/indianapolis-colts/0ap2000000106970/Andrew-Luck-is-the-comeback-kid

I found my favorite stat!

[mjiztight2345]

Fair point for the first.

The second, however, is an argument on context, and nothing else. It's entirely different situation: much as the Redskins aren't required to be excellent on third downs, Mac owners don't have to worry about viruses because nobody bothers to make them for Macs because of the smaller userbase. While Mac OS and Windows are just as proficient and deficient as each other, the reason why one gets so many more viruses than the other relies completely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself.

Just because the Redskins have been in fewer 3rd down situations doesn't mean that they "aren't required to be excellent on third downs". Perhaps they are thinking, "you know what; since we generally don't put ourselves in this situation, it's not that important". Probably not.

" the reason why one gets so many more viruses than the other relies completely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself"... This statemest serves as a testiment as to why this analogy is not good because either QB's play on third down (which I assume is what you are trying to point out in the analogy) does not "completely rely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself". It relies on the QBs actions, the actions of his teamates, and the actions of the defense.

Also, let's not act like the Redskins are so good on 1st and 2nd downs that we don't have a sufficient sample size for 3rd down data. They still have been in 119 third down situations (as compared to 158 for the Colts).

[RGIII]

Man, you guys are just terrible

[mjiztight2345]

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically

You mean, proven statistically with the statistics in which you choose to evaluate him?

...There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories...

...and this thread is attempting to quantify one additional aspect, what's the problem?

[Balzer40]

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballo...m/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

Oh good, another Skins fan coming here to just "enlighten" us with such wisdom.

Im sure you're just here to add some impartiality and objectivity to the conversation though.........right!!![rolls eyes]

[HtownColt]

"Andrew Luck has been getting better under pressure. In his past six games, he’s completed 54.9 percent of his passes and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt when under duress or hit while throwing, including a league-best 91.7 QBR (since Week 8). Over his first six games, Luck completed 29.4 percent of his passes under such pressure and failed to throw a touchdown." -Paul Kahursky

I know QBR isn't a stat everybody likes, its just ESPN throws that stat in every article they write I guess to promote it.

[rdskns4eva]

Just my .02

Luck was drafted by the team that was the worst in the league last year. A team that many thought would be one of the worst teams in the league this year. In a conference that is considered the weaker of the 2 and a division that only has Houston as a really good team. He is still behind a horrible O-line, and he still has next to no run game that opposing defenses need to concern themselves about. Even though he has made many turnovers (some of them his fault, some of them the fault of poor O-line protection, some of them tipped balls and defenses making good plays) he has still managed to get this team in prime position for the playoffs. All while learning an entirely new offense, and being "helped" by a fairly pedestrian defense.

RGIII gets drafted to a better team than the Colts last year, and with the addition of RGIII were talked about being playoffs caliber (seeing as how they beat the Giants twice last year with Grossman of all people leading the way) They are in what is considered the stronger of the 2 conferences and a normally strong NFC East that isn't very good this year as the Eagles, and Cowboys stink up the place on the regular this year)The Redskins have a strong run game and an O-line that isn't as poor as the Colts. RGIII pretty much has an identical offense that he ran in college thus making his transition much easier. He is the #1 QB in the league at pass attempts using play action.

That's just my take on the situation so take it for what it's worth. Luck has had to do more with less this season than RGIII has. The fact that this team is in the driver's seat for the #5 seed is amazing and something that very few people including much of this fan base had thought would happen. While he's not the flashy pick and the media darling that RGIII is, he is the only QB drafted #1 overall that has a winning record in his first season. To me that speaks volumes to why he deserves to be ROTY.

Please include link that said that the Redskins were a playoff team. The Skins were picked to be last in our divisions. The media pundits had

1. Eagles

2. Giants/Cowboys

3. Redskins

We were never ever ever said to be a playoff team even with the addition of RG3.

Yes the eagles stink this year. The cowboys dont stink, they are just inconsistent. They've been that way for years. The Cowboys can go and beat the Texans and then loose to the Browns. It's what they do. Same with the Giants, tho not to the extent of the Cowboys.

The Colts run game is ranked 18th in the NFL. Certainly not great, but they dont have "next to no run game" either. It's middle of the pack.

Also, the fact that the Colts play in a crappy conference and crappy divisions makes it a heck of alot eaiser to get to the playoffs. The competition in the NFC is brutal. There is a log jam for the 6th wild card spot and the Redskins are 1 game out from leading the division.

RG3 is getting help, but unlike Luck who has had his go to guy all year, Bob has had to deal with the lingering injuries to Garcon, and lost his go to TE for the year. We've had to run with the dangerous crew of Joshua Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, Aldrick Robinson and Logan Paulsen lol. Alot has been asked of Griffin because his defense (up until this three game stretch) has sucked all year.

RG3 got drafted to a team that was thought to have a better defense, but thats it. At the beginning of this year, there were questions about the Redskins running game, since we didnt have a feature back and the Oline, because outside of Trent Williams, we have a bunch of nobodys

RG3 doest have an identical offense that he ran at Baylor. Where are you getting this? I listened to Jaws and Trent Dilfer on the radio this morning. This is Kyle Shanahans offense from last year, just ran out of pistol. Nothing more, nothing less. Do they add read option stuff, Yea, they do, but it's not the Baylor offense. Kyle Shanahan Offense + Pistol + Read Option Run/Pass + Zone Stretch Runs = Redskins offense. Trent Dilfer said it today that the Redskins have "simply the best 1st and 2nd down offense I've EVER seen" in the NFL.

Funny thing is, the Redskins actually had a decent offense last year as far as moving the ball was concerned. I think it was ranked about 16th in the NFL, but we were ranked 25th in scording. This year we are ranked 8th in scoring and 7th in yards.

If interested, here is the Trent Dilfer interview talking about Kyle's offense: Pretyt much should put to rest that RG3 is running a "College Offense".

[John Dee]

Actually us Colt fans should be comparing Luck to Wilson not RG3.. Wilson is playing better.

Peter King on the topic..

http://espn.go.com/e...play?id=8708678

Cosell (best in the business breaking down film) on the Dakich show totally breaking down the rookie QB situation. from 12/5/12 THIS IS A FANTASTIC INTERVIEW

http://www.1070thefan.com/podcast/Episodes.aspx?PID=2155

Luck ... "the burden is on Luck to go out and make throws every week" .. Washington and Seattle .. "they are built around the run"

Fear not Wash and Sea fans... those young QB's will be fine.

[cmgww]

Yay!! Another Luck v RG3 thread!!!! (kicks dog)

[HtownColt]

Yay!! Another Luck v RG3 thread!!!! (kicks dog)

Luck vs every other QB on 3rd and 4th down

[coltmb]

I find it funny Redskins fans have to come on other fans forums and argue that their QB is better, but overall their team is worse.

Wait, what? Seriously do you all feel the need to vindicate yourselfs on your "supposed" choice of RG3 over Luck, are you really that petty to come to our forum and post about how much "better" your QB is?

I went over to the redskins fan forum to see, if colts fans where this *y and where posting Luck stuff all over the place. It was pretty sad. A good amount of the threads are about how Luck sucks and RG3 is god. Even saw a few sigs with RG3 wearing a crown of thorns and proclaimed "Black Jesus".

Sad, truly sad.

[rdskns4eva]

I find it funny Redskins fans have to come on other fans forums and argue that their QB is better, but overall their team is worse.

Wait, what? Seriously do you all feel the need to vindicate yourselfs on your "supposed" choice of RG3 over Luck, are you really that petty to come to our forum and post about how much "better" your QB is?

I went over to the redskins fan forum to see, if colts fans where this *y and where posting Luck stuff all over the place. It was pretty sad. A good amount of the threads are about how Luck sucks and RG3 is god. Even saw a few sigs with RG3 wearing a crown of thorns and proclaimed "Black Jesus".

Sad, truly sad.

The Black Jesus thing came from our TE, Fred Davis. Redskins fans did not come up with that.

[rdskns4eva]

Actually us Colt fans should be comparing Luck to Wilson not RG3.. Wilson is playing better.

Peter King on the topic..

http://espn.go.com/e...play?id=8708678

Cosell (best in the business breaking down film) on the Dakich show totally breaking down the rookie QB situation. from 12/5/12 THIS IS A FANTASTIC INTERVIEW

http://www.1070thefa...s.aspx?PID=2155

Luck ... "the burden is on Luck to go out and make throws every week" .. Washington and Seattle .. "they are built around the run"

Fear not Wash and Sea fans... those young QB's will be fine.

I dont think anyone has said that the Skins or the Hawks were not built around the run.

Good interview tho.

[IndyBarb]

I agree that Russell Wilson is at this time flying under the radar. If The Seahawks make the playoffs and the Colts and Skins do not; this whole argument on which quarterback is better will then be a moot point.

[rdskns4eva]

Just because the Redskins have been in fewer 3rd down situations doesn't mean that they "aren't required to be excellent on third downs". Perhaps they are thinking, "you know what; since we generally don't put ourselves in this situation, it's not that important". Probably not.

" the reason why one gets so many more viruses than the other relies completely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself"... This statemest serves as a testiment as to why this analogy is not good because either QB's play on third down (which I assume is what you are trying to point out in the analogy) does not "completely rely on existential factors that have nothing to do with the operating system itself". It relies on the QBs actions, the actions of his teamates, and the actions of the defense.

Also, let's not act like the Redskins are so good on 1st and 2nd downs that we don't have a sufficient sample size for 3rd down data. They still have been in 119 third down situations (as compared to 158 for the Colts).

Actually, the Colts have been in 178 3rd down situations whereas the Skins ahve been in 143. Roughly 20% of each teams scrimmage plays are 3rd down plays (20% for Colts, 19.32% for Skins.)

Source: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2012&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

[rdskns4eva]

"Andrew Luck has been getting better under pressure. In his past six games, he’s completed 54.9 percent of his passes and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt when under duress or hit while throwing, including a league-best 91.7 QBR (since Week 8). Over his first six games, Luck completed 29.4 percent of his passes under such pressure and failed to throw a touchdown." -Paul Kahursky

I know QBR isn't a stat everybody likes, its just ESPN throws that stat in every article they write I guess to promote it.

This is something that RG3 has been pretty consistent on. Prior to the Cowboys game, he had a 126 QBR agaisnt the Blitz. Thats pretty good.

Source: http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/Cowboys-Vs-Redskins-How-to-Stop-RGIII-180353861.html

[FireJimCaldwell]

I agree that Russell Wilson is at this time flying under the radar. If The Seahawks make the playoffs and the Colts and Skins do not; this whole argument on which quarterback is better will then be a moot point.

No, the debate would still rage on. That hypothetical would mean that Wilson was simply on the most successful team.

[IndyBarb]

No, the debate would still rage on. That hypothetical would mean that Wilson was simply on the most successful team.

You are correct about the debate; however, I'm sure it would shake a few fans up!

[FireJimCaldwell]

You are correct about the debate; however, I'm sure it would shake a few fans up!

I'm sure it would put some into a bottle.

[Susie Q]

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballo...m/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

All I can say after reading your reply is thank god being the new member with 1 post you can't start a new thread for a while. Reading your replies is like reading a novel in length.

[Captain Americolt]

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballo...m/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

Everything you wrote = perfect definition of someone just looking up pure stats.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Watch the games. If anything RG3 is overrated because everyone looks at the stats and don't mind that alot of his plays are off play-action or high efficient passes with alot of YAC. He is 32 in the NFL in YPA without play-action. He's #1 WITH play-action. Thats too big of a difference. You can have Morris to thank for that.

[rdskns4eva]

Everything you wrote = perfect definition of someone just looking up pure stats.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Watch the games. If anything RG3 is overrated because everyone looks at the stats and don't mind that alot of his plays are off play-action or high efficient passes with alot of YAC. He is 32 in the NFL in YPA without play-action. He's #1 WITH play-action. Thats too big of a difference. You can have Morris to thank for that.

I did not realize that play action was a bad thing. If you would watch Redskins games, you would see that our offense is built on the Shanahan system. Lots of runs, lots of bootlegs, lots of playaction. And you are right, stats dont tell the whole story, but they are certainly large chapters in the book.

Also, RG3 plays a HUGE HUGE role in our running game and entire offense. This offense does not go if Griff isnt running it, period. It's built around his skill sets as a passer and runner. Morris isnt having the year he's having if the defenses are not repsecting the edges in fear of RG3's speed and safties playing back because of his deep ball accuracy.

We've never seen anything of what the Redskins are doing. We've seen elements of it here and there, but not this hybrid that Kyle has put together.

[Gavin]

Ok after lurking here for a bit I cannot take this.

Does no Colts fan realize how fortunate the situation they are in to have their record? The Colts are 30th in the league with -16 turnover differential and a -41 point differential and have an 8-4 record. This is unheard of. The Patriots meanwhile are 9-3 with a +24 turnover differential and +170 point differential. One win separates these two teams and you have the nerve to say greats QBs find a way. How about just happens to have easiest current strength of schedule in the league? Last year doesn't matter, you need some perspective. Lets just throw in the Redskins stats for comparison. They are 6th in the league in turnover differential at +11 and have a +11 point differential which is at right where you expect a 6-6 team to be and a little low for turnovers.

The Colts meanwhile with their differentials have twice the record you would expect from these numbers and FootballOutsiders has the stats to show it. http://www.footballo...m/stats/teameff based on statistical averages they are ranked the 28th team in the league, this is more indicative or actual performance. Look at the majority of wins the Colts have, they are from teams in the bottom third of these statistics, the same as which the Colts posses. Meanwhile the Redskins are right around the top of the mid range with most of their wins against team in the mid range.

The Redskins have had TWO games all season where the defense gave up less then 20 points, TWO! Not coincidentally they have won both games. Now lets look at the Colts. The Colts have had SIX games of 20 or under points given up, all wins. Now factor in how many turnovers the Colts have had and you guys certainly do not give the defense nor schedule enough credit. 20, 13, 13, 20, 10, 13, are the scores in those six games. MOST quarterbacks could win with the defense holding teams to that few points. The fact Luck has had to have so many come from behind victories is actually not in his favor, it says he isn't playing well enough throughout the ENTIRE game to put these teams away earlier.

Look I really like Luck alot, love his game, his personality and I think he will be a great QB in this league throughout his career but the simple fact is his play and and record is overrated proven statistically. He has a bottom 4 passer rating in the low 70's and has 21 turnovers on the season with 4 games to go. If any QB in the league is getting too much credit it is Luck. You can argue you can only play who is on your schedule but realistically if you had a tougher schedule you wouldn't have these many wins. Most coaches in the league will point to turnovers as the #1 statistic in deciding games. The fact you colts are bottom three worst in the league and have an 8-4 record shows just how favorable your schedule is and how much the defense plays a part.

I'm not even here to try to prove Griffin's worth, I'm just tired of the "record" argument I've seen Colt's fan have the nerve to use. There is alot more that goes into your record than 70 passer rating quarterback with 5 come from behind victories. The only argument I'll make for RG3 is that if the Redskins had the same schedule or defense capable of holding teams to that few points in wins, that he would AT LEAST have the same record as Luck and the Colts.

I agree with what you say about our schedule so no debate there. Where the debate comes in is this perceived good defense we have, We are giving up 25.5 points per game also we are giving up 363 yards per game total, 6 games out of 12 giving up 20 or less is not good especially when you consider we have the Texans twice, and the Chiefs have the potential and talent to put up points against our defense if we dont stop there run or dont get to Cassel regardless of the season he or they are having(Have you seen the mess that has been our Secondary to this point?). Did I mention the Redskins defense is giving up an average of 25.1 points per game (5 points less total) then the Colts. We simply found a way to this point to win the close games with the exception of Jacksonville (first game).

[rdskns4eva]

I agree with what you say about our schedule so no debate there. Where the debate comes in is this perceived good defense we have, We are giving up 25.5 points per game also we are giving up 363 yards per game total, 6 games out of 12 giving up 20 or less is not good especially when you consider we have the Texans twice, and the Chiefs have the potential and talent to put up points against our defense if we dont stop there run or dont get to Cassel regardless of the season he or they are having(Have you seen the mess that has been our Secondary to this point?). Did I mention the Redskins defense is giving up an average of 25.1 points per game (5 points less total) then the Colts. We simply found a way to this point to win the close games with the exception of Jacksonville (first game).

Are you serious? You do realize that the Chiefs have the 2nd worst offense in entire NFL? I mean, I know the Colts arent the 85 bears, but c'mon man!