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#1 Indy005

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 10:47 AM

I didnt want to raise another topic in regards to Lucks statistics but maybe we've all been comparing him to the wrong Manning this entire time.

53% completions
24 TDs 17 Ints 75 Passer Rating 3700 yards (First season starting 16 games, which was his 2nd season as a pro)

58% completions
185 TDs 129 Ints 82 Passer Rating - Career

Yes, we are talking about Eli Manning.

He has two SuperBowl MVPs and is regarded as arguably the most clutch QB in the past 5 years of the NFL.

Those are his statistics, average, pedestrian, mediocre...use whatever term suits best to the people.

However, the eye ball test reveals that looking past those statistics shows a QB who does anything and everything to will his team to a win that does NOT show up on the statsheet. Stats do not say the entire story. Stats say that just in his division in the past 8 years Romo, Vick, McNabb have been better QBs. I would not find one knowledgeable person in regards to the NFL that would consider any of those QBs better than Eli.

What Luck is doing right now as a first overall QB pick is unheard of. The people that are whining about his INTs...relax. They will lessen in time. I didnt post Eli's first year as a starter because he only started 7 games, but the stats he had in those games were even worse than mediocre.

Give Luck TIME and enjoy what he is doing every week as YOUR Indianapolis Colts franchise quarterback!

We are 8-4 and only look to get better as years will go by. Criticism is always welcome but realize that almost every person that is IN Lucas Oil Stadium compares him to Peyton every game he plays there. Hes taking over a legend, an icon, yet hes still not playing too shabby around this unbalanced team.

Do not want to start another RG III vs Luck argument but heres one for the stat geeks...

64.8 completions percentage
168 TDs 87 Ints 95 Passer Rating - Tony Romo career stats

Ask 32 NFL execs if theyd rather have Eli or Romo on their respective teams.

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#2 lollygagger8

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 10:52 AM

Wait, there's TWO Mannings???

#3 chad72

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 10:59 AM

We have been through this when we defended Peyton vs Brady before. Ringzzz mattered to them, clutch play mattered to them (Pats fans) but we gave Peyton's stats and even went to the lengths of showing his stats in the playoffs which, believe it or not, were very comparable.

Right now, all we have is the regular season with Luck. Remember, Peyton has the most 4th qtr. comebacks of any QB in NFL history in the regular season, so what Luck is doing has been seen with Peyton in the regular season, to an nth degree.

Where Luck needs to make his mettle is in the playoffs to distinguish himself. Everything else is a moot point. Let us not put him in the playoff clutch category yet by getting carried away. One season at a time. :)

I have said this before, I will say it again. LUCK's biggest advantage is the rookie salary cap which allows us to build a TEAM as opposed to rely on Peyton and the offense to carry us against the best Ds in the playoffs and hope other teams made mistakes by playing a bend-but-dont-break D. Our D bent and broke more times than not with QBs with playoff offenses that did not make many mistakes like Brady and Brees, under Dungy and Caldwell.

Even if you have a QB that can make plays, we have realized we need a D that gets the ball back to Luck when he needs it, like it did yesterday vs the Lions, hope the defensive efforts continue and improve in the offseason. That is the singular key for Luck to succeed, more team support in all phases, not ignoring an aggressive D and able special teams. That is what won Eli his 2 SBs, his Giants not giving up more than 20 points in ANY playoff game in his 2 SB runs and keeping him in the game thus giving him a chance to come through. Not to mention his ST coming up with 2 fumbles vs the 49ers in the NFCCG.

#4 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 11:35 AM

LUCK's biggest advantage is the rookie salary cap which allows us to build a TEAM


Won't that pretty much be a moot point in a cpl years when they can renegotiate Luck's deal and he's gonna make the the kind of money the top tier QBs are getting now?
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#5 chad72

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 12:35 PM

Won't that pretty much be a moot point in a cpl years when they can renegotiate Luck's deal and he's gonna make the the kind of money the top tier QBs are getting now?


But given the progress we have made in this year with so much dead cap space, when year 4 of Luck's rookie contract comes around, we probably could be a SB contender. Plus, I trust Grigson's pickups so far and our coaching.

Besides, when we do have to shell out the dough for Luck's contract, we may have gotten rid of some other contracts by then as well as replacing Wayne or Freeney with a draft pick, possibly.

If I am right, based on the new CBA, after year 4, for the 5th year salary, the team has to decide to pay Luck the average of the top 10 QB salaries. It may be after year 3 but for some reason, I thought it was after year 4. FJC can clarify. :)

So, we get 3 years of Luck probably at his rookie rate for sure, IMO and I personally believe we could be a SB contender by then. :)

#6 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:04 PM

But given the progress we have made in this year with so much dead cap space, when year 4 of Luck's rookie contract comes around, we probably could be a SB contender. Plus, I trust Grigson's pickups so far and our coaching.

Besides, when we do have to shell out the dough for Luck's contract, we may have gotten rid of some other contracts by then as well as replacing Wayne or Freeney with a draft pick, possibly.

If I am right, based on the new CBA, after year 4, for the 5th year salary, the team has to decide to pay Luck the average of the top 10 QB salaries. It may be after year 3 but for some reason, I thought it was after year 4. FJC can clarify. :)

So, we get 3 years of Luck probably at his rookie rate for sure, IMO and I personally believe we could be a SB contender by then. :)


The team can renegotiate a players contract during the 3rd year of the deal. The Colts would be extremely foolish to not lock Luck down on a long term deal during that season. Going into year 4 starts putting the balance of power to the players side. Sure they can opt for the fifth year, but the longer you let Luck go without a long term deal (barring injury) the more it's going to cost the team to ultimately sign him. So come year 3 I can assure you that Grigson is going to have to have a large chunk of money set aside to make that deal happen. And once that happens the scales start tipping in the same manner that they did before. It's nothing that every other team that has a top tier QB faces, some are just better at finding cheap talent to fill in the holes to stay competitive. That's where we will see what Grigson is made of. I for one have faith that he will do the job and do it well. But the rookie salary cap is only a cpl year bandage, it's not anything that is going to provide you with a lot of long term aid. All this is just my opinion though, seeing as how i don't have a job as an NFL GM :)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."--Sun Tzu

#7 chad72

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:08 PM

The team can renegotiate a players contract during the 3rd year of the deal. The Colts would be extremely foolish to not lock Luck down on a long term deal during that season. Going into year 4 starts putting the balance of power to the players side. Sure they can opt for the fifth year, but the longer you let Luck go without a long term deal (barring injury) the more it's going to cost the team to ultimately sign him. So come year 3 I can assure you that Grigson is going to have to have a large chunk of money set aside to make that deal happen. And once that happens the scales start tipping in the same manner that they did before. It's nothing that every other team that has a top tier QB faces, some are just better at finding cheap talent to fill in the holes to stay competitive. That's where we will see what Grigson is made of. I for one have faith that he will do the job and do it well. But the rookie salary cap is only a cpl year bandage, it's not anything that is going to provide you with a lot of long term aid. All this is just my opinion though, seeing as how i don't have a job as an NFL GM :)


Valid points. Like you, I have faith in Grigson too. I for one do not think he will overpay free agents but will play free agency well.

#8 FireJimCaldwell

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:24 PM

It is year 3.

One silver lining to Cam Newton struggling a bit this year is that next season he might not set a precedent by renegotiating his deal to sign an extension. Based on the stories from his career at Auburn, I'm sure his advisers will attempt to get him an extension as soon as they can, now of course the Panthers have to be willing to do that as well. Since they will have a new GM, and likely a new head coach, who knows what direction they will head.

With that said, I'm not when the best time to extend Luck will be.

His cap #'s are set to be:
'12 4.015 million
'13 5.020 million
'14 6.025 million
'15 7.030 million
'16 The CBA provides the Colts with club option for year 5, but that comes at the cost of the average of the top 10 QB's. Which at that point could be knocking on the 20 million door.

If they extend him in 2014, then I see his cap # going up before it goes down, so they might choose to play out the string till 2015 in hopes of maximizing his cap value as it was intended.

In my opinion the cap savings for this year is basically blown due to the dead cap space. 2013/2014, will be based on what Grigson actually brings in via free agency and how much of that space is utilized.

In the end, it will be back to the same scenario of the star QB having the highest cap #, and fitting pieces in elsewhere to attempt to field a competitive team. With so many young players/rookies, a lot of them will be needing new contracts in the same 2-3 year period whether it is Castanzo/Luck/Fleener/Allen/etc. So it will still be somewhat complicated.

With the way Freeney was handled, I'm not sure what to expect out of the front office. I think ever GM likes to find the small school stud that goes undrafted, and there are various schools of thought about free agency as a whole. Some aren't a fan of it due it seeming like buying someone's thrown away players, but you can still be a used car.

With the lack of draft choices, they will either expand the roster moderately and roll money into future years or try to make a splash or two with some bigger names.

Time will tell. I can see the benefits in extending him in year 3, but that will come at a cost, and I can see the benefits of waiting till the end of year 4 to extend him, which to me would maximize his cap affect over the first 4 years, and then that 20 million or so he would be set to earn in year 5, could be used as a portion of a signing bonus/extension, as opposed to simply base salary.

The new tv deals will cause the cap to increase across the board, I believe in 2013 if my memory is serving me correctly, but it was also expected to increase by a moderate amount this season and it didn't.

Time will tell.

#9 MR. Blueblood

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:29 PM

It is year 3.

One silver lining to Cam Newton struggling a bit this year is that next season he might not set a precedent by renegotiating his deal to sign an extension. Based on the stories from his career at Auburn, I'm sure his advisers will attempt to get him an extension as soon as they can, now of course the Panthers have to be willing to do that as well. Since they will have a new GM, and likely a new head coach, who knows what direction they will head.

With that said, I'm not when the best time to extend Luck will be.

His cap #'s are set to be:
'12 4.015 million
'13 5.020 million
'14 6.025 million
'15 7.030 million
'16 The CBA provides the Colts with club option for year 5, but that comes at the cost of the average of the top 10 QB's. Which at that point could be knocking on the 20 million door.

If they extend him in 2014, then I see his cap # going up before it goes down, so they might choose to play out the string till 2015 in hopes of maximizing his cap value as it was intended.

In my opinion the cap savings for this year is basically blown due to the dead cap space. 2013/2014, will be based on what Grigson actually brings in via free agency and how much of that space is utilized.

In the end, it will be back to the same scenario of the star QB having the highest cap #, and fitting pieces in elsewhere to attempt to field a competitive team. With so many young players/rookies, a lot of them will be needing new contracts in the same 2-3 year period whether it is Castanzo/Luck/Fleener/Allen/etc. So it will still be somewhat complicated.

With the way Freeney was handled, I'm not sure what to expect out of the front office. I think ever GM likes to find the small school stud that goes undrafted, and there are various schools of thought about free agency as a whole. Some aren't a fan of it due it seeming like buying someone's thrown away players, but you can still be a used car.

With the lack of draft choices, they will either expand the roster moderately and roll money into future years or try to make a splash or two with some bigger names.

Time will tell. I can see the benefits in extending him in year 3, but that will come at a cost, and I can see the benefits of waiting till the end of year 4 to extend him, which to me would maximize his cap affect over the first 4 years, and then that 20 million or so he would be set to earn in year 5, could be used as a portion of a signing bonus/extension, as opposed to simply base salary.

The new tv deals will cause the cap to increase across the board, I believe in 2013 if my memory is serving me correctly, but it was also expected to increase by a moderate amount this season and it didn't.

Time will tell.


Always a wealth of knowledge. I'm in awe of your understanding of the cap. :worthy:
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself."--Sun Tzu

#10 FireJimCaldwell

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 01:33 PM

Always a wealth of knowledge. I'm in awe of your understanding of the cap. :worthy:


Thanks, but it's a lot like anything, the more you look/read into it the more you understand it.

It has some unique concepts to it, but for the most part a lot of those concepts are fairly easy to break down once you have a bit of a base on it.

#11 Warhorse

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:04 PM

A very good valid point, Indy005. My understanding of what you are stating is that we need to realize just what Luck is bring to the table. Also, Chad72 is right that we rode the stat train through the Manning years here in Indy, so to change colors now, does create arguments.

I think it is very simple. There are fans who admittedly use this board to vent their frustration on. The number of fans who feel this way has been steadily growing since about 2000. Until fan boards finally decide to create a vent free forum, places like this are going to become more filled with complaints every year. With a 1 in 32 chance of winning the SB every year there will never be a team that will make those fans with those views happy. Ever. There are also fans who come here to stand elbow to elbow with each other in support of their team with their words of encouragement and appreciation.

Neither type is wrong or right.

But unfortunately, the angst between the two views will only widen as time goes on. It is now the bane and biggest challenge to moderator teams across the internet. The common argument is that free talk needs to remain open to all opinions, to actually be an open forum. Tell me, when you go to watch a game and you are a Cowboys fans...would you rather sit with the other Cowboy fans or with Redskin and Eagle fans? The comparisons are legitimate. Today's fan who expects perfection and vents has every right to do so, but that type of fan is just as alien to me as a Jags or Titans fan. They are one in the same to me. Many of you have witnessed my barking back at fans who put down my players, coaches, and owners. I feel no difference in a Broncos fan who disses my team than I do a Colt fan who disses my team. Having said that, I like the diversity that exists on this board. A good example would be that I have friends who smoke cigarettes. I still hang with them, talk with them, but I don't hang in the room with them when they are puffing. I don't want to breath their smoke. I go to a place that is free of smoke, but I still value and engage their friendship. Just as I would visit and post in a forum that had full diversity. But it would sure be nice to go in a forum after a win and celebrate with the fans who also want to be free of venting. I am sure that fans who vent would like to do so without pies being thrown in their face.

This is my personal opinion, not meant to indicate anything negative at this board. This is the best Colts board on the internet, and there isn't a close second. My opinions were about all boards of all teams and the trends that are occurring.

"Anyone a die harder fan? I will be there believing to the end. Who is with me?" Thread started by Steveeoaktree33 at 2:49 PM of the day the Colts executed the second largest comeback in NFL playoff history. Very few concurred.


#12 Smonroe

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:20 PM

A very good valid point, Indy005. My understanding of what you are stating is that we need to realize just what Luck is bring to the table. Also, Chad72 is right that we rode the stat train through the Manning years here in Indy, so to change colors now, does create arguments.

I think it is very simple. There are fans who admittedly use this board to vent their frustration on. The number of fans who feel this way has been steadily growing since about 2000. Until fan boards finally decide to create a vent free forum, places like this are going to become more filled with complaints every year. With a 1 in 32 chance of winning the SB every year there will never be a team that will make those fans with those views happy. Ever. There are also fans who come here to stand elbow to elbow with each other in support of their team with their words of encouragement and appreciation.

Neither type is wrong or right.

But unfortunately, the angst between the two views will only widen as time goes on. It is now the bane and biggest challenge to moderator teams across the internet. The common argument is that free talk needs to remain open to all opinions, to actually be an open forum. Tell me, when you go to watch a game and you are a Cowboys fans...would you rather sit with the other Cowboy fans or with Redskin and Eagle fans? The comparisons are legitimate. Today's fan who expects perfection and vents has every right to do so, but that type of fan is just as alien to me as a Jags or Titans fan. They are one in the same to me. Many of you have witnessed my barking back at fans who put down my players, coaches, and owners. I feel no difference in a Broncos fan who disses my team than I do a Colt fan who disses my team. Having said that, I like the diversity that exists on this board. A good example would be that I have friends who smoke cigarettes. I still hang with them, talk with them, but I don't hang in the room with them when they are puffing. I don't want to breath their smoke. I go to a place that is free of smoke, but I still value and engage their friendship. Just as I would visit and post in a forum that had full diversity. But it would sure be nice to go in a forum after a win and celebrate with the fans who also want to be free of venting. I am sure that fans who vent would like to do so without pies being thrown in their face.

This is my personal opinion, not meant to indicate anything negative at this board. This is the best Colts board on the internet, and there isn't a close second. My opinions were about all boards of all teams and the trends that are occurring.


Somehow I reached my quota of "likes" for the day. If I could borrow one I'd stick it here.

#13 Superman

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:24 PM

Thanks, but it's a lot like anything, the more you look/read into it the more you understand it.

It has some unique concepts to it, but for the most part a lot of those concepts are fairly easy to break down once you have a bit of a base on it.


And it seems like there's something new to learn with every big contract that's done. Learned a lot from the Manning and Brees contracts, in particular.
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#14 Smonroe

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:25 PM

Valid points. Like you, I have faith in Grigson too. I for one do not think he will overpay free agents but will play free agency well.


I'm pretty sure he's learned the lessons about overpaying in FA. Philly is the poster team, with Washington finally wising up.

When I think of 'money ball' in the NFL it means getting two good positional players for the same salary of one high priced FA. Houston did a good job of that to turn their D around last year. I think Grigs will play it smart too.

#15 FireJimCaldwell

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:31 PM

And it seems like there's something new to learn with every big contract that's done. Learned a lot from the Manning and Brees contracts, in particular.

Very true. I'm sure the agents have people going over the document with a fine tooth comb trying various ways to squeeze nickles out of owners. Some squeeze far more nickles than others.

I still wish Luck would have gone another route with an experienced agent as opposed to his Uncle. That might benefit the Colts in the end, but it also might make everything more complicated and take longer to complete.

#16 Indy005

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:33 PM

A very good valid point, Indy005. My understanding of what you are stating is that we need to realize just what Luck is bring to the table.


Thank you. I have no idea how this thread took the different route to salary cap related issues when that was NOT the point of this threat at all.

#17 Superman

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:40 PM

Very true. I'm sure the agents have people going over the document with a fine tooth comb trying various ways to squeeze nickles out of owners. Some squeeze far more nickles than others.

I still wish Luck would have gone another route with an experienced agent as opposed to his Uncle. That might benefit the Colts in the end, but it also might make everything more complicated and take longer to complete.


I kind of halfway expect him to hire a different agency toward his third or fourth year, specifically to handle the negotiation of his NFL contract.
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#18 Superman

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:40 PM

Thank you. I have no idea how this thread took the different route to salary cap related issues when that was NOT the point of this threat at all.


Threads evolve.
LET'S HUNT

#19 chad72

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 02:42 PM

Thank you. I have no idea how this thread took the different route to salary cap related issues when that was NOT the point of this thread at all.


The point was it is a bit too early to crown him as the next Eli or the next Big Ben or this or that. Then we started talking about the window where Luck's rookie contract would help and off it went (thanks to me :)). Bottomline, it is way too early to compare Luck based on barely a season of stats. Peyton threw 28 INTs in his rookie season and then his stats changed considerably once Edge came in, and then again when Dungy came in, and so on...that is why we need a few seasons to start making comparisons.






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