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Football Outsider: Colts playoff pretenders

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So when the defense or offense is playing at a high level it's dumb luck?

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i agree...dont wanna be a downer but the fact is everytime we play outside of LOS we suck.

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This from a guy who picked the Kansas City Chiefs (I did too) to make the playoffs..

If we win 10, we're playoff caliber....

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i agree...dont wanna be a downer but the fact is everytime we play outside of LOS we suck.

We suck outside LOS so much that they were quoting a stat yesterday on SNF that made me puke. Outside the Giants who went 5 for their first 5 trips for TDs in the red zone yesterday, the Jets were the only other team that did it, vs the Colts.

Maybe, it is like that bad taste in your mouth "how on earth did we let the Jags steal a game from us, and how on earth did we let Jets go 5 for 5 TDs in the red zone against us when they have been putrid almost every game". :)

Arians said "youth is no longer an excuse" and hopefully, the young guns show me something at Detroit. :)

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We really dont have playoff talent...we have huge holes in the D and O Line....I think we're winning off of sheer will...Im fine with that for now, We will make the needed improvements in the offseason

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Stopped reading after the factual error in the second paragraph.

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Because we aren't playoff caliber and we are destined for a quick and early exit if you look at all the problems we have, Then again there is a reason why games are played and not won or lost on paper. There is a 99.9 percent chance he is right though and thats if we get in, we are at the part of our schedule that will really show us what we are as a team, 2 games vs Houston, 1 vs Detroit on the road, vs KC but on the road

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Vince Verhei says we are not playoff caliber and destined for a quick and early exit.

http://insider.espn....ianapolis-colts

Can't disagree with that. If we make the playoffs at all, that will be a tremendous accomplishment for this team in a rebuilding year - and will exceed 99% of the public's pre-season expectations!

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we were pretenders to start the season .... 32nd out of 32..

150-1 to reach the Super Bowl

he's really going out on a limb...

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The Colts were 2-14 last season and jettisoned arguably the greatest QB of all time. Just making the playoffs this season would be a tremendous accomplishment.

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http://footballoutsi...ats/playoffodds

Football outsiders use complicated formulars for playing stats and are much more accurate than the lump sum yards the NFL uses.

However like any prediction nothing is written in stone.

Currently rthe colts are 23rd at .3% to make it to the AFC with 0% chance to win.

8.1 mean wins with 33% chance of getting WC

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http://footballoutsi...ats/playoffodds

Football outsiders use complicated formulars for playing stats and are much more accurate than the lump sum yards the NFL uses.

However like any prediction nothing is written in stone.

Currently rthe colts are 23rd at .3% to make it to the AFC with 0% chance to win.

8.1 mean wins with 33% chance of getting WC

It's interesting but it also gives the Steelers a better chance at making the playoffs in any fashion than the Colts, Giants, Seahawks, Bengals, or Bears.

It also says we have a slightly better chance making the playoffs in any fashion than making the wildcard, lol.

Doesn't give any team other than division leaders a chance to win the wildcard, which is debatable either way.

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It's interesting but it also gives the Steelers a better chance at making the playoffs in any fashion than the Colts, Giants, Seahawks, Bengals, or Bears.

yeah..a chance. Chance being the keyword :)

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yeah..a chance. Chance being the keyword :)

But a nearly 80% chance?

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Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....

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Stopped reading after the factual error in the second paragraph.

yea I saw that to talking bout we beat every team by 7 points or less they must didn't see second jags game lol

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Like almost every stat out there, I see some truth.

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Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....

manning and broncos or brady and pats both would be tough to win

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The Colts are pretty much like the Bengals last year. A young, talented team with holes who beats bad teams and loses to playoff teams, with the season result being a first round playoff exit. I'll be more than pleased with making the playoffs this year but am not a homer to the point where I can consider us a "playoff contender," defined by having a legit shot at winning the Super Bowl.

I think FO is great and the majority of his reasoning is on point if one is able to be objective about the Colts as a whole. Not being legit contenders does not undermine or insult anything the team has accomplished this year.

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Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....

We wont play Denver..

Look at Baltimore's schedule...(Pitt, Cincy, NE, Denver. NYGs) Denver's going to be 12-4 or 13-3..

Baltimore's probably going to be 11-5 at best...

Our most likely playoff foe is Baltimore..... at the No. 4 seed..if we are 10-6 and the No. 5

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Well, considering that if we make the playoffs, our most likely wild card opponents are Peyton Manning and the Broncos.... Yeah, I don't see us winning that one....

Could be the Ravens or Patriots as well, all good home teams.

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And beating green bay was wait let me guess, just 'dumb luck'. Not because the colts had the talent or played better.

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well if we do get into the playoffs most likely we'd play the patriots or broncos can anyone really see us beating the patriots or broncos

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And beating green bay was wait let me guess, just 'dumb luck'.

Not because the colts had the talent or played better.

We played inspired. Reggie was double covered by Charles Woodson and Sam Shields/Tramont Williams (not sure which one was the other) and he still came up with the ball. That game was all Luck scrambling and Reggie playing out of the world. Those games happen. To me, that was offset by the Jags loss at home, our only loss at home to "I cant even bear to put his name as a starting QB" Mr.Gabbert, so the Packers' win was almost justice served.

Seahawks beat the Pats at home by 1, are they a better team? Probably not. Same issue, they struggle on the road too, happens with rookie QBs. It is never a case of who you play. It is when you play them.

But to me, we need to be able to put up such inspired performances more consistently. Right now, the Colts are playing with house money. No one gives them a chance, and they are making every game in a favorable schedule count. I will be honest with you, it is a fun ride :). The weight of the expectations are still not there, IMO. Those will come next year definitely.

Like someone else said, they are like last year's Bengals team.

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Though he has some reasonable speculations, the Colts can only play those that show up on their schedule. So even if it is a last place schedule, they've handled much more than not, and getting in means you ARE a playoff contender. Maybe one with low odds, but you are. Things happen. Momentum and injuries and other intangibles sometime affect things more than ever thought. Once you're in, anything can happen. Unless, we really are a 5-11 team posing as a 9-7 or 10-6 squad.

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We're a Young Team. I didn't expect us to do well on the Road. I'm pretty sure everyone on here knows if we go to Denver, Peyton will Gladly show us the road back to Indy. It'd be a good game to see though, but just gotta face the Reality of it. Peyton would knock us out, but it'd be a Emotional Moment that he gets to see his old team again with it's new leader

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Play-off calibre meaning being good enough to get into the play-offs, or good enough to get beat in the first round? Like the One & Dungy's of the mid 00's? With Peyton?

It's all just clap-trap.

We COULD beat the Ravens anywhere. They are average. We could beat the Texans anywhere (see them v the Jags?). We could not beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Fact.

Who cares. We were 2-14 last year.

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Because we aren't playoff caliber and we are destined for a quick and early exit if you look at all the problems we have, Then again there is a reason why games are played and not won or lost on paper. There is a 99.9 percent chance he is right though and thats if we get in, we are at the part of our schedule that will really show us what we are as a team, 2 games vs Houston, 1 vs Detroit on the road, vs KC but on the road

A .1 percent chance... really? I don't buy that, no matter who the opponent is. The Pats got beat by the Cardinals this year. Luck started that game off fairly hot. Our chances aren't good in the playoffs, but they are certainly better than .1%. Heck, one of the Giants superbowl wins was a long shot, when they finished the season 8-8.

To me, the any given Sunday thing applies. The Jags nearly beat the Texans. Some very poor teams have beaten much better teams.

The guy is likely right, we're not likely to go far... but we weren't considered a playoff team at the start of the season, so he is basically calling an orange orange. I would not be shocked to see us go one and done in the playoffs. I also wouldn't be shocked if we snuck a win or two in during the playoffs.

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I think people are getting hung up on the wrong things. The question was whether or not we are likely to succeed in the playoffs.

That means that at a minimum, we've got to beat either HOU, BAL, DEN, or NE at their place. It's not far fetched to say we're going to have a hard time doing that.

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I can see why people say that because we are a young team and haven't been doing well against teams on the road.

Our main accomplishment is getting there, that is big enough in my mind.

One step and one year at a time. I will hope for the best but I won't get ahead of myself.

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This "formula" they use is just like pulling numbers from a hat....just like that QBR.

Dumb

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I think we are better then what alot of people give us credit for we have heart!!!!

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For a team that was predicted by many to land the #1 pick, who cares? Just making it would be a major accomplishment.

In preseason, many predicted the Bills to win the East while the Colts were predicted to go 1-15. We just beat the Bills, yet some are upset we didn't do it with style points. Perspective.

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I think people are getting hung up on the wrong things. The question was whether or not we are likely to succeed in the playoffs.

That means that at a minimum, we've got to beat either HOU, BAL, DEN, or NE at their place. It's not far fetched to say we're going to have a hard time doing that.

Bingo, doesn't mean that it isn't going to happen, because baring a mini melt down, the Colts are going to play a wildcard game. I wouldn't bet a cent on us. Though I'd like to, but this team can win, but it isn't ripe yet.

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We're a Young Team. I didn't expect us to do well on the Road. I'm pretty sure everyone on here knows if we go to Denver, Peyton will Gladly show us the road back to Indy. It'd be a good game to see though, but just gotta face the Reality of it. Peyton would knock us out, but it'd be a Emotional Moment that he gets to see his old team again with it's new leader

If this happens, I would just put Reggie on defense and hope that Manning throws it to him out of habit.

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