Double A Breakdown: Week 11

[Andy]

**Quickly put this together... been very busy... not exactly my best article I've ever written**

The Colts face their toughest task of the year as they must go to New England and face off against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Andrew Luck has been on a roll recently, but now he faces colder weather and the smartest coach in the league, Bill Belicheck. Both sides of the ball will have a lot of their plate.

What the Colts Need to do to Win

Well, offensively, they're going to need an aerial attack like no other. They are going to have to throw the ball a lot. Yeah, that's right, they have to go pass heavy. Forget about the balanced attack this week, because the Pats' secondary is weak. If Ryan Fitzpatrick puts up 337 yards, 2 TDs and 31 points against you at home, you know there's something wrong. Luck needs to pick his spots, and he needs to find the right guy. All the receivers need to be active. It's going to be a pass heavy game, and that means that Luck must target guys not named Reggie Wayne. Donnie Avery should be targeted on the deep balls and Hilton and Allen should be targeted for short-intermediate passes. Everyone needs to be involved.

As for the running game, it's not crucial to have one, but it will definitely help. The main reason why it would help is because of the Colts using play action; they love using it, and they use it very well. If they can't establish a running game, they'll have a hard time properly utilizing the play action. So, for this game, the running game is needed for the passing game, and the passing game only.

The offensive line has to just protect Luck. That's the main worry, and run blocking shouldn't be emphasized as much as the pass blocking this week. They've struggled with pass blocking in recent weeks, and they need to step it up. The Pats can get to the QB; it may not show on paper, but they get a lot of pressures and knockdowns from Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. To help protect Luck, the Colts should have at least 6 guys blocking on the majority of the plays. That means the O-line and one extra guy, whether it be a running back or a tight end, help block. Give Luck time, and he'll make the throw.

The offensive gameplan should be to go pass heavy (because of the Pats' weak secondary), but to get some runs in there, so that they can properly utilize the play action plays.

As for the defense...

The defensive line is going to have to create some penetration up the middle. They'll need to create piles in between the tackles. If you cause disruptions in the running game, that will hurt the Pats' offense. The Pats are 5-0 when they rush for over 98 yards, and 1-2 when they rush for 70 or less.

The linebackers will need to have aggressive roles. They'll need to be used in blitzes and in contain assignments. They shouldn't be used in coverage as they will be beat constantly by the Pats receivers. The Pats want mismatches and if they can get a linebacker against Welker or Edelman, that's golden. Get some "Nickel" or "Dime" packages out there and then you blitz the remaining linebackers.

Then, the secondary. If they want to have any chance of stopping or containing Tom Brady, they'll need another Darius Butler game. Good luck. So, with that being said, take away the top targets, and force him to go to other guys. That means to take away Welker and Gronk. Those are the 2 main guys.

The defensive gameplan should be an aggressive one. They need to get pressure on Brady, and maybe get him to make a mistake or two. If they get pressure on him, they'll have a better chance of slowing him down. If you give him time in the pocket, this offense will break 40 points, easily. So, have the blitz packages ready, because they'll need them.

What the Patriots Need to do to Win

On offense, they need to make mismatches. This means that the Pats should try and set up 4 or 5 receivers. Why? Because that means that a linebacker (ideally Mathis or Freeney) would line up against one of the receivers. That's a big mismatch. That's important in the passing game.

Overall, they need to stay balanced, which means that they must establish the run. They have a great running game, and the Colts have a mediocre run defense, that can easily be beaten because of its many holes. The Pats can get away with having a bad running game because of Tom Brady, but to really ensure a victory, they should have a running game. It takes a lot of pressure off Brady, and good running games usually mean more TOP (time of possession), which keeps the other offense (Luck in this case) off the field.

On defense, they should have an aggressive approach. This means a lot of blitzing. If Andrew Luck has time to throw in the pocket, he will pick you apart. Just look at the Jacksonvile game. He easily move the ball down the field and that's because of the poor pass rush that the Jags generated. Now the Patriots are much better than the Jaguars when it comes to pass rushing, but the Pats only manage around 2 sacks a game. That's nowhere near enough to stop Luck.

In the running game, the Colts like to run it to the outside a lot. If the Patriots play contain, and have either the linebackers take the outside or the ends take the outside, they'll be fine. If they can eliminate the outside runs, the Colts will be limited to inside running, which isn't their strong suit. With all the inside blitzing that should be done, the inside runs shouldn't be a big threat either.

So blitz and play contain, and you have the potential to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

Intriguing Matchups

The most intriguing matchup has to be Andrew Luck vs Bill Belicheck. Will the genius be able to shut down the up and coming rookie or will Luck have the better of the coach? Andrew Luck is the most important player on the Colts this week, and if he doesn't do well, the Colts have no chance.

Bold Statement

Colts have at least 10 yards penalties.

Prediction

New England Patriots 34 vs Indianapolis Colts 24

[SLILLINGTON10]

no offense to you but i am getting somewhat sick of hearing a lot of people in the forum doubt the colts this week.. i know everyone on espn thinks we have no shot. but come'on we are not the 2-14 colts. lets have a little faith.

colts 21 pats 17

[SteelCityColt]

no offense to you but i am getting somewhat sick of hearing a lot of people in the forum doubt the colts this week.. i know everyone on espn thinks we have no shot. but come'on we are not the 2-14 colts. lets have a little faith.

colts 21 pats 17

I don't think it's a lack of faith, we are on the road to a seasoned QB with great weapons. Most are predicting us losing a shoot out rather than getting blown out at least. I will give you though that we have better form going into this one than we had at the start when we went to the Jets.... Urgh

[SteelCityColt]

Oh and nice breakdown as usual Andy, I'd agree mostly with it. Whoever gets the better pass rush going should win IMO,well unless Ridley runs right through us. I'd be disappointed if he did though as in patches they've shown some solid play against the run.

[Indyfan4life]

While all the analysts think we'll lose, they are also giving us better odds than I thought to pull this out. Listening to Schlereth and Bruschi on ESPN the other day, they both mentioned that we have the ability to win this game. Rather it's from Frathis causing problems, or the O just having a great day. No one is predicting a blow out like originally thought when the schedule was released. Shoot, we ALMOST won last year with the Painter playing.

[braveheartcolt]

no offense to you but i am getting somewhat sick of hearing a lot of people in the forum doubt the colts this week.. i know everyone on espn thinks we have no shot. but come'on we are not the 2-14 colts. lets have a little faith.

colts 21 pats 17

Do you want everyone who has us losing, to change their mind, and predict a Colts success? Is that what you are asking. Will it make you less sick if we do? Colts 35, Partiots 21.

Good health sir....

[TMPHBITEU]

no offense to you but i am getting somewhat sick of hearing a lot of people in the forum doubt the colts this week.. i know everyone on espn thinks we have no shot. but come'on we are not the 2-14 colts. lets have a little faith.

colts 21 pats 17

Faith does not equal logic.

[Stephen]

yea I'm tired of all the patriots win by ten point threads to if they do win by that much it will be because of turnovers but if they dont get those we should win

[SLILLINGTON10]

Faith does not equal logic.

logic tells me that the pats have one of the worst defenses in the league. and that seatle was able to beat them, arizona beat them, they are 6-3 just like we are. logic tells me not to put them up on a pedastol. they are a good team, we are a good team. it will be a good game. and as colts fans we should have faith that we can win. leave the logic/doubt to the espn guys. cause once again logic from last year says we should not be in the playoff picture. that's all don't mean to rant or anything. sorry.

[TMPHBITEU]

logic tells me that the pats have one of the worst defenses in the league. and that seatle was able to beat them, arizona beat them, they are 6-3 just like we are. logic tells me not to put them up on a pedastol. they are a good team, we are a good team. it will be a good game. and as colts fans we should have faith that we can win. leave the logic/doubt to the espn guys. cause once again logic from last year says we should not be in the playoff picture. that's all don't mean to rant or anything. sorry.

That's fine - at least you're using logic rather than "faith", which was what your first post indicated. Well, somewhat at least. "Faith" is irrelevant to me; logic is the only sane tool we have at our disposal when we try to analyze an outcome. Just having "faith" that your team is going to go out and win "just because", is ignorant.

As for "logic from last year", I highly disagree. We can analyze all we want - in the end there are too many variables for anyone to figure out the outcome in the NFL. Logic didn't state that it couldn't happen, logic stated it was unlikely. Luckily for us, logic was wrong.

I hope it is again tonight.

[Andy]

I hope the Colts win, but sometimes you have to be realistic.

The Colts are on the road (bad on the road), they're going up against Tom Brady, and arguably the best offense in the league.

Again, being realistic; I hope they win, but you have to go with your logic.