Among the Reasons we're a Big Underdog is this.....

[NewColtsFan]

.... the last Rookie quarterback to beat the Patriots AT New England is.....

Kerry Collins in 1995. It's been 17 years since a rookie QB has beaten the Patriots in their house.

Pretty darn impressive.

Speaking of which, Luck gets to take on the 29th ranked pass defense.... this should be an interesting match-up!

[buccolts]

So, the odds are with us.

[chrisfarley]

_{There's no doubt we should be the underdog --- Pats are ferocious at home as we know. Luck could be running for his life.}

[The Peytonator]

.... the last Rookie quarterback to beat the Patriots AT New England is.....

Kerry Collins in 1995. It's been 17 years since a rookie QB has beaten the Patriots in their house.

Pretty darn impressive.

Speaking of which, Luck gets to take on the 29th ranked pass defense.... this should be an interesting match-up!

I'd say they're about due.

[Nobody]

To be fair, there are several factors that make this stat less impressive.

1. Few rookie QBs start, and fewer still happen to play one specific team at that team's stadium. Small sample size.

2. The few that do are usually high draft picks, and therefore on bad teams.

3. Rookie QBs almost always struggle on the road.

4. The Patriots historically have had a good pass D, they don't anymore.

Not saying they shouldn't be a considerable favorite, but this stat is pretty meaningless.

[The Peytonator]

I haven't watched much Pats this year, but just by looking at their base 4-3 package, we should be able to throw all over them, especially to the TE/RBs. I don't know how often they line up with Jones, Wilfork, Love, and Ninkovich on the Dline, and Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower as LBs. I know Wilfork and Love don't get after the QB much, so Jones looks like their only legitimate pass rusher. Mayo, Spikes and Hightower are freakin' huge for LBs so I wonder how good they are at covering the middle of the field/underneath routes. It's no wonder they are so poor against the pass.

[GOCOLTS_ROLLTIDE]

I haven't watched much Pats this year, but just by looking at their base 4-3 package, we should be able to throw all over them, especially to the TE/RBs. I don't know how often they line up with Jones, Wilfork, Love, and Ninkovich on the Dline, and Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower as LBs. I know Wilfork and Love don't get after the QB much, so Jones looks like their only legitimate pass rusher. Mayo, Spikes and Hightower are freakin' huge for LBs so I wonder how good they are at covering the middle of the field/underneath routes. It's no wonder they are so poor against the pass.

that's sec lbs for you they are freaks and can move so i wouldn't overlook their lateral speed

[Stephen]

As long as luck doesn't throw it to the patriots we will be fine I can see brady throwing atleast two ints if our dbs catch the ball the bills failed to capitolize on balls thrown their way

[JoKeR]

_{There's no doubt we should be the underdog --- Pats are ferocious at home as we know. Luck could be running for his life.}

Here's to getting on the *right track!*

[NewColtsFan]

To be fair, there are several factors that make this stat less impressive.

1. Few rookie QBs start, and fewer still happen to play one specific team at that team's stadium. Small sample size.

2. The few that do are usually high draft picks, and therefore on bad teams.

3. Rookie QBs almost always struggle on the road.

4. The Patriots historically have had a good pass D, they don't anymore.

Not saying they shouldn't be a considerable favorite, but this stat is pretty meaningless.

"Meaningless"??? Tough audience here....

Really? The stat wasn't offered with any other to compare it to, but it was offered as a pretty remarkable stat... so I got the feeling that few, if any other team has a stat that compares.

17 years since any Rookie has won there.... I think the sample size is bigger than you know...

Let me put it another way, if Luck wins Sunday, are you going to be downplaying the achievement here all week? With a post like yours I'm thinking 'yes' you should. You can tell everyone it's just not that big a deal....

The floor is yours my friend...

[FireJimCaldwell]

I know Collins & Carolina precede the Belichick era in New England, and if that stat is accurate, then Belichick hasn't been beaten by a rookie at home with the Patriots. According to an article I read Rookie QB's are 4-10 against his defenses, and players making their first start ever are 0-4 against him.

During his tenure in New England he has faced 3 rookies at home, Byron Leftwich, Trent Edwards, & Mark Sanchez. That's not exactly a who's who, even though Sanchez did win the game that season at Giants Stadium. In spending a few minutes looking at it, unless I missed 2 wins(they might have come when he was in Cleveland), here is how Belichick has faired against Rookies. It should be noted that he has lost the two games vs. rookies(McCoy & Wilson), so maybe there is a trend.

[coltsfanmilyman]

fjc,

you are just a fountain full of information.

Well Done

[luckycharm]

2 questions? Who has the more experience players on defense? I know the answer do u ? That's probally the main factor of the whole game. Of the 2 defenses which defensive players have more experience and knowledge of the QB that they will be facing Sunday? I know the answer to that as well. You get what im trying to say I know who's going to win this game.1 defense will be able to make adjustments if needed say like at halftime due to knowing and playing an opponent that they played before.

[Coltscodeblue]

@luckycharm, I hear what your saying and also Colts have now Butler who practiced with Mr.T.Brady and against the 1st team and maybe they have some of the same plays he saw when he was there and know Brady's route preferences on recievers on those plays, we'll see if that will help in anyway and would love for him to again jump a route and another pick or better a pick six ;}

Go Colts and beat NE Sunday!!!!!

[SIXTHOBJECT]

As long as luck doesn't throw it to the patriots we will be fine I can see brady throwing atleast two ints if our dbs catch the ball the bills failed to capitolize on balls thrown their way

I wouldnt count on Tom makeing the same mistakes from a previous game.

[SLILLINGTON10]

if we beat the pats, you know everyone on espn will be talking about if we are a super bowl caliber team. not just a playoff team.

[jwilli69]

Some reasons we are underdogs

1. We have a rookie qb

2. We have a pretty awful oline

3. Our pass defense is very suspect

4. The Colts have won one game against Green Bay who has a great team and it was at home

5. The Pats have a pretty good passing attack with a really good qb

6. Pats have a really solid oline

7. Pats have a pretty good game planning coach

8. The pats are at home

9. The refs favor the pats most games I see and the pats are aggressive against the rules of the game

10. Weather?

All the odds of the Colts winning this game shouldn't be close but let me say some reasons we could win

1. Luck is as good of a rookie as the league has seen in a long time if ever in managing a game and he has improved each game noticeably.

2. Team is on a roll

3. Team has DF AND RM on the field together rushing the qb

4. Powers isn't playing and at least the replacement is a man to man style guy who came from NE so he knows the pats better than anyone on our defense.

5. The pats defense is not anything special any longer as it was 5 years ago or so

6. On any given Sunday even the rams could win a game

[swflacoltsfans]

I wish we still had Dallas Clark.

[lollygagger8]

I hope Brady tries to pick on Butler, and Butler makes him pay with an INT. I think Butler will be fired up for this one!

[BOTT]

I wish we still had Dallas Clark.

i enjoy chocolate custard

[ColtsBlueFL]

I know Collins & Carolina precede the Belichick era in New England, and if that stat is accurate, then Belichick hasn't been beaten by a rookie at home with the Patriots. According to an article I read Rookie QB's are 4-10 against his defenses, and players making their first start ever are 0-4 against him.

During his tenure in New England he has faced 3 rookies at home, Byron Leftwich, Trent Edwards, & Mark Sanchez. That's not exactly a who's who, even though Sanchez did win the game that season at Giants Stadium. In spending a few minutes looking at it, unless I missed 2 wins(they might have come when he was in Cleveland), here is how Belichick has faired against Rookies. It should be noted that he has lost the two games vs. rookies(McCoy & Wilson), so maybe there is a trend.

Good stuff! However, I don't see a single loss for the Pats when they're at home. All road losses, and many road wins in there.

[BrentMc11]

I know Collins & Carolina precede the Belichick era in New England, and if that stat is accurate, then Belichick hasn't been beaten by a rookie at home with the Patriots. According to an article I read Rookie QB's are 4-10 against his defenses, and players making their first start ever are 0-4 against him.

During his tenure in New England he has faced 3 rookies at home, Byron Leftwich, Trent Edwards, & Mark Sanchez. That's not exactly a who's who, even though Sanchez did win the game that season at Giants Stadium. In spending a few minutes looking at it, unless I missed 2 wins(they might have come when he was in Cleveland), here is how Belichick has faired against Rookies. It should be noted that he has lost the two games vs. rookies(McCoy & Wilson), so maybe there is a trend.

This is great stuff as always......New England has given up some points this year, and we are fairly healthy on the OL (Here is to hoping Shipley goes instead of Satele) My thoughts are if we avoid the big play and do not make mistakes we may stay close and have a little for the Pats in the last 2 minutes!!!!!

My worst case scenario is major meltdown....mistakes and penalties. BTW...this is NOT my expectation. This Colt team will play HARD!!!!! It is New England! Go Colts!!!!! :pass: :coltsfb: !!!!!! Thanks for the Stats FJC!

[Nobody]

"Meaningless"??? Tough audience here....

Really? The stat wasn't offered with any other to compare it to, but it was offered as a pretty remarkable stat... so I got the feeling that few, if any other team has a stat that compares.

17 years since any Rookie has won there.... I think the sample size is bigger than you know...

Let me put it another way, if Luck wins Sunday, are you going to be downplaying the achievement here all week? With a post like yours I'm thinking 'yes' you should. You can tell everyone it's just not that big a deal....

The floor is yours my friend...

I'm not gonna downplay a win at the defending AFC champs. I'm saying the stat is less impressive than it sounds.

[Smonroe]

"Meaningless"??? Tough audience here....

Really? The stat wasn't offered with any other to compare it to, but it was offered as a pretty remarkable stat... so I got the feeling that few, if any other team has a stat that compares.

17 years since any Rookie has won there.... I think the sample size is bigger than you know...

Let me put it another way, if Luck wins Sunday, are you going to be downplaying the achievement here all week? With a post like yours I'm thinking 'yes' you should. You can tell everyone it's just not that big a deal....

The floor is yours my friend...

Not that it's my battle but I have to agree with him in the sense that the stat (while remarkable) has no bearing on this game. There is no sample size. It's this Colts team against this Patriots team. Not every other team with a rookie QB against any Patriot team from the past.

Sorry, it always bugs me when they pull out the historical records of how teams have fared against each other. Those stats are meaningless unless both teams have basically remained the same throughout all those years.

[Jay Kirk]

This is great stuff as always......New England has given up some points this year, and we are fairly healthy on the OL (Here is to hoping Shipley goes instead of Satele) My thoughts are if we avoid the big play and do not make mistakes we may stay close and have a little for the Pats in the last 2 minutes!!!!!

My worst case scenario is major meltdown....mistakes and penalties. BTW...this is NOT my expectation. This Colt team will play HARD!!!!! It is New England! Go Colts!!!!! :pass: :coltsfb: !!!!!! Thanks for the Stats FJC!

Hope this is not the case,on the depth chart Satele is 1 Ship is 2 ,a mistake IMO,The running game is much better overall with Ship,and pass protection is comiung around,i think hes overall a better player and has the heart to back it up!

[FireJimCaldwell]

Good stuff! However, I don't see a single loss for the Pats when they're at home. All road losses, and many road wins in there.

Thanks, but this was the first sentence.

I know Collins & Carolina precede the Belichick era in New England, and if that stat is accurate, then Belichick hasn't been beaten by a rookie at home with the Patriots.

[gbrads_rants]

I was watching Mike and Mike this morning and they made this game come off as The Lovable Colts vs the Bullies....smh....I hate that persona and was hoping this team would kill it.....with that said we need to beat Brady up all day long.

[Orlando Fan]

I think it's just ironic that the Patriots are now what the Colts use to be in 2003.

[Jay Kirk]

IMO this colts team can win this game,the NE defense allows alotta points,if we win to battle or dont commit them i think we will be fine

[Jay Kirk]

IMO this colts team can win this game,the NE defense allows alotta points,if we win to battle or dont commit them i think we will be fine

turnover battle

[ColtsFTW]

But they got beat by the Cardinals. I'd rather be beat by any of the rookie QBs instead of the Cardinals QBs. lol

[FanFromtheWasteland]

I was watching Mike and Mike this morning and they made this game come off as The Lovable Colts vs the Bullies....smh....I hate that persona and was hoping this team would kill it.....with that said we need to beat Brady up all day long.

I saw that too. Also on First take Skip was talking about how much he is tired of hearing about how good Luck is and that he thinks he is a little overhyped. Funny how he thinks that a Rookie Qb that wins is overhyped but his boy Tebow isn't. Just want to smack that guy

[BradyMVPMontana]

The underdogs simply because their opponent's offense is quarterbacked by perhaps the greatest ever, in the middle of his prime, directed by the best coach in football ... and the best offensive weapons in football, including an elite wideout, set of tightends, an all-purpose go to guy and one of the best runningbacks in the NFL ... with their performance resulting in the rating of a #1 in the NFL. But for some reason, I believe that the big day will come from the other side, watch out for Chandler Jones to get at least two sacks, Rob Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork to both make at least one big play and for Aqib Talib to make a very solid debut with an interception.

[Smonroe]

I saw that too. Also on First take Skip was talking about how much he is tired of hearing about how good Luck is and that he thinks he is a little overhyped. Funny how he thinks that a Rookie Qb that wins is overhyped but his boy Tebow isn't. Just want to smack that guy

He's tired of hearing about Luck? How about how they have to talk about Tebow every day? Even in the off season they have to find a basketball or baseball player who's the Tebow of that sport! You're spot on, he does nothing but constantly hype Tebow.

[Nobody]

"Meaningless"??? Tough audience here....

Really? The stat wasn't offered with any other to compare it to, but it was offered as a pretty remarkable stat... so I got the feeling that few, if any other team has a stat that compares.

17 years since any Rookie has won there.... I think the sample size is bigger than you know...

Let me put it another way, if Luck wins Sunday, are you going to be downplaying the achievement here all week? With a post like yours I'm thinking 'yes' you should. You can tell everyone it's just not that big a deal....

The floor is yours my friend...

I stumbled upon a stat that supports my post.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyPage=10spot-12week11

3 rookie QBs have played the Pats in Foxborough since 1995.

They played:

A Jags team led by rookie Byron Leftwich that had gone 6-10 the year before, and 6-10 that year as well.

A Jets team led by rookie Mark Sanchize that had gone 9-7 (with a HoF QB) the year before, and went 9-7 that year as well.

A Colts team led by the great, but turnover prone rookie Peyton Manning that had gone 3-13 the previous year, and went 3-13 that year as well.

So they played two bad QBs and one good against generally decent-bad teams that failed to improve their records at all from the previous season.

So, again, small sample size makes this stat pretty much meaningless.

[NewColtsFan]

I stumbled upon a stat that supports my post.

http://espn.go.com/n...10spot-12week11

3 rookie QBs have played the Pats in Foxborough since 1995.

They played:

A Jags team led by rookie Byron Leftwich that had gone 6-10 the year before, and 6-10 that year as well.

A Jets team led by rookie Mark Sanchize that had gone 9-7 (with a HoF QB) the year before, and went 9-7 that year as well.

A Colts team led by the great, but turnover prone rookie Peyton Manning that had gone 3-13 the previous year, and went 3-13 that year as well.

So they played two bad QBs and one good against generally decent-bad teams that failed to improve their records at all from the previous season.

So, again, small sample size makes this stat pretty much meaningless.

Well, drat! And Double Drat!!! Looks like my stat isn't just no good, it looks like it SUCKS Big Time!!

I kinda feel cheap.... used.... taken advantage of! Those ******** at ESPN.... it's a completely misleading stat they tossed out, and by the way, they've been using it all week! All of their shows from SportsCenter to their football shows have been talking about it.

There's an expression for this.... it's called.... Much Ado about Nothing!!

In the immortal words of Emily Latella from Saturday Night Live....

"That's very different. Never mind!"

[NewColtsFan]

I know Collins & Carolina precede the Belichick era in New England, and if that stat is accurate, then Belichick hasn't been beaten by a rookie at home with the Patriots. According to an article I read Rookie QB's are 4-10 against his defenses, and players making their first start ever are 0-4 against him.

During his tenure in New England he has faced 3 rookies at home, Byron Leftwich, Trent Edwards, & Mark Sanchez. That's not exactly a who's who, even though Sanchez did win the game that season at Giants Stadium. In spending a few minutes looking at it, unless I missed 2 wins(they might have come when he was in Cleveland), here is how Belichick has faired against Rookies. It should be noted that he has lost the two games vs. rookies(McCoy & Wilson), so maybe there is a trend.

Thanks!

Next time I'm on fire, and I'm calling out for help, I'll count on you to bring the gasoline and pour it all over me!! :cuss:

[Indyboy757]

Well thats a nice stat to know but the real reason is that we are more then 50% rookies or one to two year players with NFL experience going against more of a vet team that was in the Super Bowl last year with their Offense still in tack...

[FireJimCaldwell]

Well, drat! And Double Drat!!! Looks like my stat isn't just no good, it looks like it SUCKS Big Time!!

I kinda feel cheap.... used.... taken advantage of! Those ******** at ESPN.... it's a completely misleading stat they tossed out, and by the way, they've been using it all week! All of their shows from SportsCenter to their football shows have been talking about it.

There's an expression for this.... it's called.... Much Ado about Nothing!!

In the immortal words of Emily Latella from Saturday Night Live....

"That's very different. Never mind!"

​

It's still a neat tidbit. 17 years is a long time even if there were only 4 chances inbetween. It's a headline grabber, and if the Colts win, I'm sure some newspaper somewhere will have a headline or sub-headline saying Rookie wins in Foxboro for 1st time since '95. Some will sensationalize it, because that is what the media does and is paid to do.

Thanks!

Next time I'm on fire, and I'm calling out for help, I'll count on you to bring the gasoline and pour it all over me!! :cuss:

I read the 10-4 vs. rookies quote a few weeks ago, when it was actually 10-3 before the Russell Wilson/Seattle game and I was wondering who all they played, so I took a look, and that's the list that was there. I guess the two other wins/games came when Belichick was in Cleveland, and I didn't check other New England games before Belichick which is why the 98 Manning game wasn't on the list.

Just my own curiosity.

[Gramz]

Thanks!

Next time I'm on fire, and I'm calling out for help, I'll count on you to bring the gasoline and pour it all over me!! :cuss: