Double A Breakdown: Week 9

[Andy]

The Colts go up against the Dolphins in a matchup that could very well decide who makes the playoffs. Both teams are at 4-3, have new coaches, new quarterbacks and new defensive schemes. Andrew Luck is back at home after a big win in Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill has a leg injury, but it appears that he will play. This should be a great battle between two young teams.

What the Colts Need to do to Win

On offense, the Colts must play mistake free football. The Dolphins aren't a team that you can win even if you have 2 turnovers, they'll make you pay. in the passing game, they must have a conservative approach. This means not too many shots downfield, but more some 4 yard passes (outs, ins, slants, arrows... the little ones). Andrew Luck needs to have a solid game if they want to win. It seems like that has to be the case every week, but this week, he can't force too many throws. Most of his interceptions come from him forcing throws. Instead of forcing throws, he should just use his feet. He's played 7 NFL games in his career, but I can already say that he's one of the smartest running quarterbacks in the league. He picks the perfect time to run. Those instincts need to be there against the Dolphins. The second he feels pressure, he needs to find an open receiver, and if nothing there's, he's got to run. So, no forced throws, and run if you can.

The Colts should also try to have a balanced offense. When they have a balanced offense, they always seem to win. Look at last week, they had a great running game in the 2nd half, and that's why they won. This means that Donald Brown and Vick Ballard should see around 25 rushes (total) to become a balanced offense. If they want to establish a good running game, they should try to utilize them both evenly. Last week they were pretty even with the carries, and that's why they had over 130 yards (and the run blocking was very good last week).

Finally, the most important unit in the upcoming game, the offensive line. They're going up against one of the better D-lines and front 7s in the league this season. They are going to have to deal with Cameron Wake, Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Karlos Dansby, and Jared Oldrick. That's perhaps the toughest front 7 the Colts have faced all year. Not the biggest names, but they perform, and they create problems.

Then there was the defense.

Stopping Reggie Bush has to be the main priority. I haven't seen anything that proves that Tannehill can single handidly win a game. So with that being said, stop Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. If you can stop him, I honestly believe that the Colts will hold the Dolphins' offense to less than 15 points. When their running game isn't good and they're on the road, they don't put up many points. This is good for the Colts' offense. Bush likes to run stretch plays or outside runs. So, the Colts should try to contain him, make him run in the 1,2,3, or 4 gaps. Once he starts running those, you could either stack the box (bring in Zbi) or blitz Freeman and/or Conner.

The defensive line is going to need to get penetration and pressure on Tannehill. Moala should be back which is good and Redding should be 100% which is also good. On top of having those 2, I'd like to see Drake Nevis get some time in the game, especially on passing downs. I think his performance last week merrited him some time this week.

As for the linebackers... ROBERT MATHIS IS BACK!! That's a huge boost to the pass rush. Now the Colts can generate pressure on Tannehill which is huge. Freeney needs to wake up, and this could be the week he does. He's going up against Jonathan Martin, who isn't great in pass protection. Jerrell Freeman and Kavell Conner are going to be huge in stopping the running game. They need to follow Reggie Bush and make sure he doesn't beat them to the outside.

Then the secondary... With Davis out, Cassius Vaughn gets the start. Vaughn has allowed 63% of the passes gone his way to be completed and has allowed a 112 passer rating. He needs to step it up or Tannehill will easily pick them apart. Same with Powers, who's playing better than Vaughn, but nothing to be proud of. He's allowing a 102 passer rating, but at least he has some great performances, like against Jordy Nelson and Josh Gordon (that big TD was a fluke, nobody could cover a pass like that). With the Dolphins not being such a vertical threatening team, the Colts can afford to put Zbikowski in the box, or even Bethea in the box. They don't have to send them deep to prevent the deep pass. They could start doing that in the 4th quarter, if they're up, and the Dolphins need to pass.

The defensive gameplan should be to worry about stopping the run, so that they have to rely on Tannehill to win the game. This means being aggressive be stacking the box and having a lot of blitzes.

The offensive gameplan should be to be balanced and to not take too many shots down the field. Winning the time of possesion in this game is key.

What the Dolphins Need to do to Win

The most important thing for the Dolphins' offense is to remain balanced. They cannot go run heavy or pass heavy, because they don't have a quarterback that could throw 36+ times. Actually, they've won all their games when Tannehill has thrown 30 times or less. Reggie Bush isn't really that guy that could run 25+ times either. If they could maintain balance, their offense will easily put up a good amount of points. Their offensive line must play well, Robert Mathis is back, and when he's in the lineup the Colts have a very solid pass rush.

In the redzone, Anthony Fasano should be targeted the most. He's a big guy that has proven in the past that he's a very good redzone target. When they're not in the redzone, possesion receiver Davone Bess should see the most targets. Jerraud Powers doesn't do that well vs possesion receivers, so targeting his side could help their offense.

On defense, getting presusre on Luck is the most important thing. If they can get pressure on Luck, their offense won't perform well and it gives the Dolphins a huge advantage as it quiets the crowd and slows down their passing game. If you shut down the Colts passing game, I doubt they score more than 10 points. They have a big dependence on it. In the secondary, double teaming Reggie Wayne should be a priority. Sean Smith is a physical corner, but Reggie Wayne seems to thrive against physical corners. So, with that being known, bring Chris Clemens over the top. He's done a nice job this year and has 2 picks by with deep coverages. Taking Reggie Wayne out of the picture is like having one leg, you can still walk/hop, but it's going to be tough.

So, they should stack the box, so that they get pressure on Luck and completely eliminate the inside runs. As for the outside runs, you get either the outside linebackers or the defensive ends to play contain. I notice that the Dolphins like to do that early on in games, and it works pretty well.

Intriguing Matchups

The most intriguing matchup is definitely the Dolphins D-line vs the Colts O-line. The Dolphins have an oustanding D-line, with Cameron Wake being their best D-lineman. They also have Paul Soliai in the middle and he's very disruptive. The Colts O-line has a tough test, and if they expect to put any points against this Dolphins D, they must give Luck protection. They create turnovers off pressuring the QB.

Bold Statement (New!!)

A special teams play (good or bad) is the difference maker in this game.

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 20 vs Miami Dolphins 19

[SLILLINGTON10]

our run game dare i say has looked good (knock on wood) with ballard getting some good reps and brown/carter picking up the slack... if this continues and luck has an avg game 9just under 300 yds and a td or two) i think we can win any game we play. including the pats and texans. our season will hinge on the defense side of the ball.

[JWF]

Good breakdown Andy.

Like most of the games this year, if we can stop the run and take some pressure off of Luck...well be in business. Easier said than done against the Phins. Quality team.

[John Dee]

Miami has feasted on TO's... their DB's are ubber aggressive. Luck WILL take shots down field and he WILL hit on a couple.

Miami has been out gained by a mile in their last 2 and Cincy did also...

Bottom line here..... the team that holds onto the ball will win the game. These teams are very even.

All things being equal.... ask oneself... who has the better QB?

hmnnn? Oh and OURS is at home...

[Phinsfan93]

Miami has feasted on TO's... their DB's are ubber aggressive. Luck WILL take shots down field and he WILL hit on a couple.

Miami has been out gained by a mile in their last 2 and Cincy did also...

Bottom line here..... the team that holds onto the ball will win the game. These teams are very even.

All things being equal.... ask oneself... who has the better QB?

hmnnn? Oh and OURS is at home...

The DB play has improved every game because they are still trying to get adjusted to the new 4-3 scheme.

Not very equal. You guys have turned the ball over a lot, Miami hasn't. I don't know a record but when the Dolphins don't turn the ball over they win most of the time.

Miami's O-Line vs Indianapolis' D-Line W

Indianapolis O-Line vs Miami's D-Line L

This game will be won in the trenches, not through the air, which bodes well for Miami.

[John Dee]

The DB play has improved every game because they are still trying to get adjusted to the new 4-3 scheme.

Not very equal. You guys have turned the ball over a lot, Miami hasn't. I don't know a record but when the Dolphins don't turn the ball over they win most of the time.

Miami's O-Line vs Indianapolis' D-Line W

Indianapolis O-Line vs Miami's D-Line L

This game will be won in the trenches, not through the air, which bodes well for Miami.

Indy's DL will play with Redding, Moala, and Mathis and Freeney.... sorry bro... Indy is as healthy as the have been ALL SEASON .. just for MIAMI.

And exactly who is you OL mauling? Cincy? St Louis? ARIZONA????? The Jets drilled us .. Bad day...

They come back and shut down the hottest RB in the NFL... C Johnson. err Trent R then.... CJ ... hehe,.

Bring your big boy pants Sunday Dolphin Phan... it may not end well.

[Smonroe]

The DB play has improved every game because they are still trying to get adjusted to the new 4-3 scheme.

Not very equal. You guys have turned the ball over a lot, Miami hasn't. I don't know a record but when the Dolphins don't turn the ball over they win most of the time.

Miami's O-Line vs Indianapolis' D-Line W

Indianapolis O-Line vs Miami's D-Line L

This game will be won in the trenches, not through the air, which bodes well for Miami.

Equally matched teams. Apparently Vegas likes Miami, but they've been wrong about us more than they've been right.

Equally surprising teams too. When I watched Hard Knocks, I thought your season was going to be a disaster. From no WRs to a rookie QB who couldn't even put together an Ikea table. But Philbin is doing it right, he's a good coach.

Going to be a close one.

[Phinsfan93]

Indy's DL will play with Redding, Moala, and Mathis and Freeney.... sorry bro... Indy is as healthy as the have been ALL SEASON .. just for MIAMI.

And exactly who is you OL mauling? Cincy? St Louis? ARIZONA????? The Jets drilled us .. Bad day...

They come back and shut down the hottest RB in the NFL... C Johnson. err Trent R then.... CJ ... hehe,.

Bring your big boy pants Sunday Dolphin Phan... it may not end well.

Supposed to be scared of a DT that has 2 sacks in his CAREER, a DE who has been OK, scary Mathis, and an injured Freeney? Dolphins' O-Line shaking in their boots. You even named better D-Lines than Indianapolis' . Cincy has the best DT in Atkins and decent DEs, St. Louis has Robert Quinn and Chris Long, Arizona has Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, and decent OLB with their MLB having 8 sacks. CJ was shut down? 21 carries for 99 yards averaging 4.7 carries isn't what I'd call "shut down". He was hot because he faced the 32nd run defense in the Bills. Richardson didn't even play the enitre game LOL. It may not end well for the Colts.

[John Dee]

Supposed to be scared of a DT that has 2 sacks in his CAREER, a DE who has been OK, scary Mathis, and an injured Freeney? Dolphins' O-Line shaking in their boots. You even named better D-Lines than Indianapolis' . Cincy has the best DT in Atkins and decent DEs, St. Louis has Robert Quinn and Chris Long, Arizona has Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, and decent OLB with their MLB having 8 sacks. CJ was shut down? 21 carries for 99 yards averaging 4.7 carries isn't what I'd call "shut down". He was hot because he faced the 32nd run defense in the Bills. Richardson didn't even play the enitre game LOL. It may not end well for the Colts.

Sunday 1 pm

[Captain Americolt]

Supposed to be scared of a DT that has 2 sacks in his CAREER, a DE who has been OK, scary Mathis, and an injured Freeney? Dolphins' O-Line shaking in their boots. You even named better D-Lines than Indianapolis' . Cincy has the best DT in Atkins and decent DEs, St. Louis has Robert Quinn and Chris Long, Arizona has Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, and decent OLB with their MLB having 8 sacks. CJ was shut down? 21 carries for 99 yards averaging 4.7 carries isn't what I'd call "shut down". He was hot because he faced the 32nd run defense in the Bills. Richardson didn't even play the enitre game LOL. It may not end well for the Colts.

Our DT sucked a** as a 4-3 DT. He's now a NT. Which he is alot better at. He's not gonna get any sacks. Mathis IS scary. Freeney is not injured, I don't know where you got that from.. and Redding is better than ok. A simple search of stats won't tell the whole story. And we didn't shut down CJ. We limited his effectiveness. Meaning most of his runs didn't change the game.

[Phinsfan93]

Our DT sucked a** as a 4-3 DT. He's now a NT. Which he is alot better at. He's not gonna get any sacks. Mathis IS scary. Freeney is not injured, I don't know where you got that from.. and Redding is better than ok. A simple search of stats won't tell the whole story. And we didn't shut down CJ. We limited his effectiveness. Meaning most of his runs didn't change the game.

Freeney is not 100% is what I meant to say. Redding is better than ok but not better for a team to lose sleep over. Not denying that your guys aren't good just that the Dolphins have faced better in ALL of their game except for the Jets.

[ColtStrong]

Supposed to be scared of a DT that has 2 sacks in his CAREER, a DE who has been OK, scary Mathis, and an injured Freeney? Dolphins' O-Line shaking in their boots. You even named better D-Lines than Indianapolis' . Cincy has the best DT in Atkins and decent DEs, St. Louis has Robert Quinn and Chris Long, Arizona has Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, and decent OLB with their MLB having 8 sacks. CJ was shut down? 21 carries for 99 yards averaging 4.7 carries isn't what I'd call "shut down". He was hot because he faced the 32nd run defense in the Bills. Richardson didn't even play the enitre game LOL. It may not end well for the Colts.

Do you want us to bow down to you and tell you how great you are?

[Phinsfan93]

Do you want us to bow down to you and tell you how great you are?

I would appreciate that a lot even though I'm a freshman in college barely making enough. Of course I know opposing fans will side with their players just like I would.

[Captain Americolt]

Freeney is not 100% is what I meant to say. Redding is better than ok but not better for a team to lose sleep over. Not denying that your guys aren't good just that the Dolphins have faced better in ALL of their game except for the Jets.

Fair enough.