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  1. Trades involving 1/1 or 1/2 usually organized well before drafts. The reason is simple. If you pick lets say at #10, you don't know what team will do with the first 9 picks. There are a lot of possible variation and outcomes. You only want to trade up if the draft goes the way you like, so you can grab your guy. Trading up for the #1, #2 (#3) pick is unique in a number of ways. First, these picks cost a lot, so teams very rarely move up to grab a non QB. These trades are almost exclusively done by teams to get a franchise QB. So there are much less variables and outcomes to consider. If you go for the number one pick, you don't need to consider anything. You get the #1 pick, you will pick first, you can get your guy. If you go for the #2 pick, then there are at least 2 quarterbacks you like, so whoever the #1 team will take, you can take the other guy. You can go ahead and pull the trigger on the trade in march, because there will be no variables added. (Unless something disastrous happen to one of the two guys. But you take that risk if there are other teams you know of who are interested in trading up.) The Jets were in this situation. They probably like 3 (or more) guys, and they are OK to take any of the three. They knew that Denver, the Bills and probably the Cardinals are also heavily interested in picking a QB, and possibly also trying to trade up. So they acted first and made sure they have that #3 pick and not one of their rivals. (Regarding the #6 pick, if a Colts will trade further back, that will happen on draft day. Whoever will want to trade up, they will want to know what happened with the first five picks before they pull the trigger.)
  2. Hankins Released

    ??? Hankins was the 4th best graded interior lineman (3-4, 4-3 combined) against the run according to pff. Only Harrison, Suh and Kawaan Short were ahead of him. His weakness was rushing the passer. (graded negatively).
  3. Hankins Released

    This cannot be scheme based or anything like that. Hankins had 2 years back from his contract, he was due to 7.5 mill this year and 7 mills next year. Ridiculously low figures compared to how good he is. And he is just 26 years old, a still young fella, who is coming off of his best season so far. And the Colts did not even try to trade him? They could've got a 3rd rounder for him in no time, easy. That does not make any sense. There must be something behind this which we know nothing about.
  4. Could be. But in long term it's better to have the Jets feel they have given up a lot, but for a reason, instead of feeling they were robbed. Who knows when and what we will need to negotiate them next time, and who will be in the stronger position then. In this case they wanted to get ahead of the Bills. The Jets knew that the Colts could've gotten more value from trading back with the Bills than from trading back with them. So, asking the same price from the Jets as we wouldve asked from the Bills feels just about right for me. It's a win for the Colts and overpaying for a reason for the Jets.
  5. Serious Question Regarding Ballard.

    Ballard explaining what's been happening and why it's been happening lately:
  6. This is a wastly unbalanced trade favoring the the Colts side.The Jets practically given up similar value what the Bills wouldve had normally, had they traded up. I can imagine this was a bidding war, the Jets and the Bills are both on the phone, and the Jets have won it by matching the Bills offer, but giving up their 1/6 instead of the Bills 1/12. I hope Luck will be fine, because finding a new franchise QB would be hard and costly. We just saw how costly this can be. Unless you are so lucky that a Manning / Luck lands in your hands when you happen to suck and pick at 1/1 in every 20 years.
  7. OK, looks like we're drafting Nelson ...

    No, he is not. He is a good RB, but that's the most you can say about him. His 3.9 YPC is no better than acceptable. His yards after contact number is outside of the top30 (yes, one of the worst). When he had to run against a solid run defense, his numbers dropped more than Gore's numbers dropped. He shredded the Steelers and Patriots run defense in the playoffs, but those were the worst run defenses I've probably ever seen in playoffs. Every team, every RB shredded those defenses. Against the Bills, an actually admirable run defense, he rushed for 57 yards out of 21 attempts, 2.7 YPC. That's Fournette. The game changers in that Jaguars team were/are the Ramsey's, Bouye's, etc.
  8. OK, looks like we're drafting Nelson ...

    So far he hasn't. But it's the 3rd day of free agency. Don't jugde too quickly. Hankins was brough it one MONTH into the free agency. Doing what the Jaguars do right now is easy. They are all in for 2018. But the price of that is, that that team will blow off in 2 years. Just look at their projected 2020 cap situation. They have 20 players signed, and those 20 players eat the WHOLE cap space already. Because they structured their contracts "cap friendly". Yeah, its cap friendly for 2018, but a cap hell for 2020. In 2 years they will have to let go most of their big name veterans, will have to swallow a ton of dead cap, and wont be able to sign a freaking yourneyman to replace them. Heck, they wont even be able to resign their own guys, Ramsey, Ngkagoue, etc. That's not what Ballard is doing. He builds for the long term. And that requires a different approach. Having 75 mills of cap space sounds a lot, but it's actually not that much. First, we will need 10 mills for the draft. Then, we will need 5-6 mills for mid season movements. Then Ballard will keep another 10-15 to sign mid-summer low cost free agents. There will be cuts later, teams will cut valuable pieces to fit under the cap after the draft, and Ballard wants leverage to go after them. Then Colts will roll some money over for next year, as they did last year, rolling over 16 mills. They do it because they are building for long term, so they will need future money to keep their own guys, who really are key pieces. Not just Hooker, but Sheard, Hankins too. They are also young, Ballard doesn't want to let them go at age 27-28, if they still produce. But he will have to pay them. So depending on how much he wants to roll over, remove let's say 15. My bet is that he wants to stockpile it a bit, so he will roll over more than he did last year, so the number will be closer or over to 20 than 15, let's just remove 15. And now, let's do the math, it's easy: 75-10-5-15-15 => 30. That's the money he intends to spend. He already spent 6.5 on Autry (because what he actually does, it he FRONT loads contracts a bit, so they count less against the cap next year and on, giving him more leverage). That's 28.5. Now, he has to sign: OL, TE, CB, RB, WR, etc. And fit them under 28.5 mill (let's say 30), BUT DONT BACKLOAD them because, again, we build for the long term, so we want leverage. Now, lets sit down with Ryan Jensen's agent, and tell him how much we are willing to spend on him. And how long of a contract we are willing to give him. Remember, we want guys to FINISH their contracts. We don't want to cut them after two years if they play well. (Those teams who sign for 2018/2019 do not care about the 3rd or 4th year, they already know they will cut the guy. And loose on it, but they don't care because they are willing to swallow the long term loss for the price of being even a slighty better in 2018). This does not justify why we did not sign Newton. We could have. Or we could have signed Jensen, etc. I just tried to put this into perspective. Ballard knows Newton or Jensen would've made this team better in 2018. But he also knows that they wouldn't have made us contenders. And their price tag might've hurt our future plans. He factored all these in his decision. Which might be right. Or wrong. He commits mistakes for sure. Everyone does. All I am saying is, I think I understand the big picture why he seem "sitting on his butt doing nothing", when he actually doesnt.
  9. OK, looks like we're drafting Nelson ...

    You didn't get my point then. I didn't say Fournette was bad. He was fine. But he was picket at 1/4 while "everyone else" were picked in the second, third and fourth rounds. Simply because he was picked so high, he is already the 4th highest paid running back in the league, while the other guys cost nothing. That's value. Production vs price. Picking at 1/4 you expect game game changers like Jaleen Ramsey, not someone who is "right there with everone" who were picked in later rounds. Let me explain positional value from a different perspective. Since 2005 these are the running backs who were drafted in the top 5: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette. Remove Fournette and Elliott, who have only 1 and 2 years of production, so no long term judgement yet. And look at the remaining list. Those remaining guys were all projected as top5, can't miss, game changer talents when drafted. Just look at that list again. Then, realize, that all those great running backs of the last nearly 2 decades were all drafted outside of the top5, mostly outside ot top 15 (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon) or even in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc). It is what it is. If you don't honor positional value, and pick a running back so high, other GM's will laugh at you and they will go ahead and pick their franchise running backs in later rounds, and use their first picks on players of higher positional values, whos price tag (and potential impact) is higher.
  10. Colts Oline

    Goods main problem last year was Jeremy Vujnovich. Put a decent player at RG, and I think Good will be a more than serviceable RT. And he is versatile, so if the Colts bring in a fine RT, he can be a good RG next to him. I wish Mewhort wasn't such injury prone. If we was a dependable guy at LG, I think one quality addition on the right side could've done "wonders". But Mewhort is a big question mark, so we have question marks all over atm.
  11. Serious Question Regarding Ballard.

    Hankins (and Al Woods) finished amongst the top 15-20 of defensive interior linemen (3-4 and 4-3 combined). That scratching the "elite" bracket. The guy, who was "something to brag about" last year was for example Dontari Poe. He finished outside of the top 40 last year. Or Sheldon Richardson who finished at 35. Or Bandon Williams, who finished just outside of the top 20. So, do we talk about marketing value, madden rating, or actual performance? Because if we talk about performance, then Hankins was definitely "something to brag about". Even Al Woods was "something to brag about" (he was also a top20 interior lineman, hand in hand with Hankins). Both guyes had better/similar seasons than Poe, Richardson, Williams had. Not to mention Jabaal Sheard, who also wasn't anything to brag about. He wasn't even a starter any more in Boston. Then he came to Indy and became the 3rd best 3-4 OLB according to PFF. If he was a free agent now, he could look for a 18-20M/year figure, considering where the market is right now. He brought in Barkevious Mingo, an utter bust, who played serviceably replacing John Simon. Now, Seattle gave Mingo 2 years 11M deal. I don't know how good Ballard is finding offensive talents (we haven't seen much of it, Mack and Aiken, that's not mind blowing, but maybe a too small sample size. He did fine job in Kansas though - if it was indeed him). But I am positive he has very good eyes to find defensive talents. We will see how he handles offense, because he will have to start improving that side of the ball sooner than later.
  12. OK, looks like we're drafting Nelson ...

    Nothing has been thrown out the window. Just on example: Last year the Jaguars drafted Fournette at 1/4, who wasn't considered / hyped as much as Barkley is this year, but was the clear cut best prospect and most analysts put him in the top5 of last years draft. And he was good. However nothing spectacular compared to Cook, Nixon, Kamara, Hunt, etc. They now have a RB who is earning 6.5 million with his rookie deal (because 1/4 pays him that much). This year they lost their slot CB and signed D.J. Hayden for 6.5 mills per year. who in reality is a "we give you the vetmin and prove you can win this job" type of guy. Waaay overpaid. So they are paying 13 mills for a RB, who is not better than 4-5 of his classmates who earn 1 or below, and a journeyman. Had them taken Marshon Lattimore instead, and put him in slot - ot put Ramsey in slot -, and drafted a RB in later rounds, then now they would have a heck of a corner who can play outside too if Ramsery or Bouye injured, and a similar serviceable to good RB depending on who they drafted insted of Fournette. And they would have to pay 7.5-8 mills for those two guys instead of 13. I hear you say "but Zeke Elliot in 2016....". Well, no. Imagine if they've taken Jaleen Ramsey instead of Zeke, and lets say they've taken Derrick Henry, Jordan Howard or even Alex Collins in later rounds. How would've that struggling Dallas secondary looked with Ramsey, and how much worse their running game could've been if it wasn't Zeke, but lets say Jordan Howard? Remember, Demarco Murray rushed almost 2000 yards behind that oline, then went to Philly and rushed 700 yards. Positinal value is important. Team do break the rule - as they break other rules - time to time. They do other crazy stuff too. Because the pressure is huge, jobs are insecure, they must "do it now". But make no mistake, picking Zeke at 1/4 was mistake, they could just get away with it because they were lucky with Prescott. Good GMs, and those, whos jobs are secure are less prone to make those mistakes. Which pays well for their respective teams in long term. p.s.: Speaking of the Jaguars. The media loves them. They loved the Bucs last year and they loved the Colts in 2015 too. But make no mistake: what the Jaguars really do now is they put everything - including their middle/long term future - on one year. They go for 2018, and 2018 alone. They just don't look further. Maybe Coughlin is planning to retire next year? Or is he such flippant regarding cap management with no GM control over him? Dunno. What we know is that he has done exactly the same thing in Jacksonwille before, to move to NY and left them rot for years. Anyway, unless they will be extremely lucky by finding a hidden diamond - a true franchise QB - in later rounds, the Jags will be back to where they were in 2 years. That roster will explode like a nuclear bomb in 2 years, and Bortles wont save their ***ses.
  13. You are right, but the whole argument is pointless imo. We just don't know if taxes matter or not. It's entirely case dependent, For example what about endorsement deals? Some players might bring their deals to their new resident state (because it's mostly selling t-shirts and such) while others might not (because they have nation wide/worldwide deals with TV channels, sport equipment companies, etc.). This alone might be a deciding factor.
  14. It's more complicated than that, because not all types of player's incomes are connected to their teams home state. Some types of incomes (signing bonuses for example) taxed by the home state, while salaries, per game bonuses, etc are taxed by the state they play the actual game in. So Texans players taxed by state Indiana when they play in Indy, and Indy players are not taxed by Florida (neither Indiana) when they play in Florida, etc.