I think we win the AFC South, with a 10-6 record, so long as Luck is good to go for the start of the season.
Looking at it objectively, we are clearly better on defense this season, than the 30th ranked defense last season. Our O-line should improve like it did by the end of last season. These improvements are not offset by losing any key players in the FA or to retirement (with the exception of Pat).
So I expect our 8-8 record to be better. Yes the divisional rivals will improve, but we only won half our divisional games last year anyway, I would expect us to win no less than that amount this year. Remember our strength of schedule is one of the easiest in the league also.