My opinion is this: The Colts tend to, and have in the past with some exceptions, play to the level of their competition. We have seen it in years past. 2013....they beat both SB participants but get dusted by the Chargers and Rams. 2014....blasted the Bengals and Ravens but lost big to the Steelers, Pats and Cowboys.
The times they are beaten badly, it's usually a personnel issue. Sometimes it's scheme, as with the Pats, but mostly personnel IMO.
BUT, in most games they play to the level of their competitors. See this year against the Broncos. They went into the defending SB Champs home and held serve until the last drive. But they lose to the Jags.
So, for this game, I except them to dial it up again and make it a game. I can't say they win, but I give them a good chance. Osweiler hasn't been great, but we are a sieve on D. I really wish we had Moncrief back for this one. At the same time, Luck and the offense can take advantage of their defense....plus we have Vinatieri and McAfee.
Homer me says 27-21 Colts
Realistic me says 17-28 Texans